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Published on Monday, 07 May 2018 20:54

Giro d'Italia St 5

Agragento to Santa Ninfa

Wed 9th May, 153kms 

The second stage on the island of Sicily is similar to stage 4, with a few more tougher hills thrown in to the mix. The finish is also similar with a hill inside the last 2kms, but this time it eases back to a flat run to the line. 

There could have been a chance that we see the break make it tomorrow, the rolling course will help the break build up a big lead and it will be a tricky course to try to organise a chase.. But.. they will have a headwind for most of the day and that's going to hamper the break's chance of making it.. So it looks more likely to be another bunch finish... but we could see some furious racing over the closing 25kms or so.

That intermediate sprint half way up to Poggioreale Vecchio should be hotly contested again, and that climb is 4% for 6.4kms, we could see a shakeout of quite a lot of the field if some teams really put the hammer down. And then there is that other little hill to get over with 17kms to go, before that ramp up with 1500m left to the finish line.

Stage 4 Review 

An incredible last 10kms of that stage today, that is what the Giro is all about, not that nonsense in Israel. Valerio Conti made a bold attempt for glory, but the relentless little hills sapped his strength and they swallowed him up in plenty of time to see a GC/Puncheurs battle up the hill. Mitchelton-Scott almost got it perfect, their explosive accelerations through the small streets of the town saw a little gap form as they hit the final hill. Significantly though, Wellens was there and looking comfortable, and incredibly, Sam Bennett was in the mix, until they hit the 10% gradients on the final straight. 

Yates was a little far back but made the bridge, but sat in and waited, it looked like he might jump at any moment and sprint away.. Only he didn't.. Wellens just upped the pace and upped the pace until he rode everyone off his wheel more or less. Rusty Woods tried to go with him, but failed, yet another 2nd place for the Canadian. Surprise of the day was Enrico Battaglin battling his way up the final hill, he put out some huge watts to land 3rd place, and must be considered for future stages after that performance. Yates came back at them in the last 50m, but it was too late, an unlucky 4th for him, who'd have seen Battaglin being up there?!

Dennis was good, was right there with 200m to go, he finished in 12th on the same time as Dumoulin, Pozzovivo, Pinot and George Bennett. Froome lost 17" to Dumoulin and Dennis after getting caught up behind a crash, Lopez lost the same time. Bora had both Konrad and Formolo in the top 10, they are showing good legs too. 

Brambilla was unlucky I think, he punctured in the run in to the town, got a wheel off of Eg, was towed by Irizar and Mullen and sprinted his way back through the pack, only to suffer cramps on the final climb.. he finished 36th, but behind Geniez who was only 9" in front of him.. I think we were unlucky there. As for Bilbao finishing behind a charging Luis Leon, well that was annoying, so much for the hype around Bilbao. Hermans got caught up behind the crash and finished down the pack. 

The Route

They head west on to the coast for the start of stage 5, and spend about half the stage on or very close to the sea, where westerly winds could buffet the peloton and see splits and echelons should some teams want to try it on. At Menfi they head north and in to the hills, and soon after go over the first of three Cat 4s, the Santa Margherita di Belice, 6.3kms at 2.2% average, but goes up in waves. 

A quick descent and with 102kms gone it's up again to the next Cat 4 climb, the Partanna, a bit tougher at 3.6% for 9.2kms, but still nothing major to worry about. With 25kms to go they start to head back west, first going through the intermediate sprint at Poggioreale and then straight on to the final Cat 4 climb of the day, the Poggireale Vecchia. This is much shorter (the categorised part anyway) at just 3.9kms at 3.6%, but they already will have ridden 2.6kms at 4.7% before the climb starts, which is a bit strange.. 

A little descent, then another uncategorised climb for 5kms at around 4%, which tops out with about 10kms to go and then descends until 4kms to go, 2kms of flat roads and on to the finale.. 500m at 8.4%, a section at 12% in the next 500m that average 6.1%, before it eases for the last 500m. With 400m to go there's a sharp right turn, then with 250m to go they turn hard right again on to the finishing straight. 

Contenders and Favourites

We should be looking at a similar sort of group of riders that will fight out this stage, and even before today's result I was giving Tim Wellens and Luis Leon Sanchez a chance, annoyingly they did really well today so that's killed their price for tomorrow.. Wellens will like this run in, he may attack on those hills with 15kms or so to go and with the downhill until 2kms to go, he might just make it to the finish. Or he could just do what he did today and power up that climb with 2kms to go and hold off the rest. 

Luis Leon is the kind of guy who could go with him or even go separate to him, he'll like the opportunity to attack near the top of the hill, he'll love the descent, and he'll sprint up that last hill too. He sits 54" down, so no real immediate threat to the GC if he gets 20" or so. But again, he too might just sit in, mark moves and try a late sprint too. 

Enrico Battaglin was super impressive today, his watts were off the chart for the last 800m. We know in the past he has done well on uphill finishes, but he hadn't had a result like today's 3rd place in quite a while. LottoNL will get behind him I think while he still has good legs, Bennett, Lindeman and Gesink should be there to help him and if he can get to that last kilometre in the first 10 he has a chance. 7/1 is very short, after being 100/1 today, but he really has good legs so you'd have to think he'll be up there again, and on a flatter sprint he might go a little better.

Sam Bennett - what was he doing up there today? That was a superb performance and shows that he is very strong, if maybe lacking the top top speed necessary to beat Viviani in a flat sprint. But we know he's ok in an uphill sprint, and if he can hang in there again tomorrow, on a run-in that is arguably easier than today's, he has a big chance. He may be the only rider with a semblance of a proper leadout train, as Konrad, Grossschartner, Formolo and Benedetti could all still be there for him. And we saw how strong they were today..

It's a long shot he'll get there in contention, but if he does, he could well take the stage as he'll be the best sprinter on a flat last 250m.  33/1 is just about tempting enough, but can he pull off a performance like that two days in a row?

Tim Wellens is just 7/1 again, and after that performance today he has to have a big chance again. But he said after today's stage that he had targeted today's stage, will there be a bit of a comedown after that result? Maybe, but also, he looked so calm and strong in the last kilometre, he didn't really look under pressure at all and easily came past Battaglin in the end.  He has to be a big danger again.

Diego Ulissi is just 9/1 and I can't have that, he should have been closer than 19th for me today to have a chance tomorrow. Jose Goncalves was unlucky today, he punctured with about 15kms to go and had to make a second bike chain shortly after that too. He still managed to get back up to only lose 27" at the finish, only 6" behind Froome, so he must have really flown up the final hill. But how much did it take out of him, and will this finish suit him as much? I'm not sure, and that price is way too short for a guy who's only won a stage of the Ster ZLM in the last two years. 

I think this is not a suitable finish for Michael Woods, he'll not get away on his own on the hill part and he won't win a sprint against these guys either, same goes for Simon Yates I think, if he couldn't win on that finish today, he won't win on this easier one tomorrow. Pelle Blibao is just 22/1 again for tomorrow, he was well out of it today, but it isn't clear at the moment whether that was as a result of the crash, or he hadn't the legs. I think he was held up, so he might go better tomorrow.

Max Schachmann was sensational today, he got held up in the crash but charged through the stragglers to finish with Betancur and Aru, just 10" down, ahead of Froome and Lopez.. At 28/1 he could well give it another big go tomorrow and wih that sort of finish he could take a top 3 finish here. Rohan Dennis was right up there today at the front, looking comfortable, and at one point he was tempted to sprint for the stage win, but decided instead to just mark Dumoulin.. Maybe if he is in the mix here again tomorrow he might decide to give it a go this time? 33/1 if you think that might happen, would be great to see it!

Mads Pedersen and Sacha Modolo are both 50/1, of the two, Pedersen had the roughest day today, finishing almost dead last, but he had helped Brambilla try to get up to the front after a puncture. Modolo was dropped on the last hill, but he looked to be going ok to me when he was shown on TV, maybe he had just had a mechanical or something. This is an easier run in, a little bit more like a Flanders/Ardennes type finish, so maybe Modolo will be a bit closer this time, and 50/1 is worth a little nibble I think. And could Thibaut Pinot get involved in a sprint finish? It's possible, but it will have to be a pretty pared down group for him to win from I think.

I think it's going to be another cracking finish tomorrow, and the shorter distance could see an open finish.. I think we will see it all come back together again before the finish and we could see a reduced group sprint. With the pace they'll be going at, that uphill kilometre inside the 2km to go point will fly by - so we could see some of the sprinter types hang in there, and Battaglin, Bennett and Modolo might give us a shot at the win. And Mad Max is one that could also give us a bit of excitement in the last kilometre..

Have added Tosh Van Der Sande this morning at 50/1, he was very impressive yesterday, and Wellens said this morning that Tosh was very strong yesterday and could have a go today.. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Enrico Battaglin at 7/1

0.5pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 33/1

0.25pts e/w on Sacha Modolo at 50/1

0.25pts e/w on Max Shachmann at 40/1

0.5pts e/w on Luis Leon Sanchez at 20/1 - all with 365

0.25pt e/w on Tosh Van Der Sande at 50/1

Matchbets

Konrad to beat Yates - 2pts at 8/11

Battaglin to beat Gavazzi and G Bennett to beat Meintjes - 3pts at 7/10

Add Wellens to beat Woods to make it a treble - 2pts at 6/4