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Published on Monday, 07 May 2018 16:04

Giro d'Italia St 4  

Catania - Catalgirone

Tuesday 8th May, 198kms    

So after three stages in Israel, the Giro d'Italia proper starts, but they are not yet in Italia proper, rather they take a stepping stone approach to Italy via three stages in Sicily.  

This is the second year running they have visited Sicily, and like last year they will tackle Mount Etna, albeit on stage 6 this time instead of this stage as last year. The first stage in Sicily is a rough a ragged sort of stage, a shark's tooth sort of profile with hills coming at them all day long. And the finish is going to be very exciting.. the last 5kms take them through the narrow, rough streets of central Catalgirone and the last kilometre has a bite to it as well, with a punchy climb of 8.5% gradient, hitting a max of 13%. 

Stage 3 Review

Not a lot to stay about the stage, a boring run through the desert past camels and signs warning to look out for crossing tanks. But it got crazy fast in the 30 mins - Tosh Van Der Sande tweeted that the average speed in the last 30mins was 63kmph! Sam Bennett got a great leadout, hit the front with 150m to go, but suddenly started veering violently to his right, almost taking Viviani in to the barriers..

His attempt to stop Viv at all costs didn't work though, as both he and Modolo came past him in the last 20m to relegate him to 3rd. And speaking of relegation, I'm amazed he was allowed keep his 3rd place, normally a move like that would have seen a rider relegated, but unfortunately for our man Mareczko, who finished 4th, Bennett kept his place. No sign of Gibbons, don't know what happened to him, but the matchbet treble and the Modolo to beat Bonifazio bets landed to give us a small profit of 1.5pts again.. 

Annoying with Marezcko, but it would have been even more annoying if Modolo had won after we had backed him the day before and he had blown it.. but he took enough points to take him up to 2nd in the Points competition, let's hope he can press on from here. 

The Route

They start out from Catania on the east coast of Sicily and head south, going downhill at first, for more or less 30kms, then start to climb again, and climb on-and-off for the next 50kms. They turn inland after 66kms at Sortino and shortly after take on the first Cat 4 climb of the day at Pietre Calde, which is long at 15.5kms, but averages a sedate 2.2%.. that is brought down by several descents and flat parts on the climb, but it's still nothing to worry about. 

From there the course winds its way through the hills, passing two intermediate sprint points 21kms apart, then on to another Cat 4 climb at Vizzini (4.8kms at 4.4%), before dipping down in to the valley with just 16kms left. They then start an uncategorised pull up towards San Bartolomeo, which is almost 9kms at 3.4%, which is sure to see a flurry of late attacks and a furious pace by those trying to keep it together.

At the top there are just 7kms left and it waves and rolls for the next 6kms, one part hitting 6.4% for 500m, as they pass through the beautiful old town of Catalgirone. The town has a mixture of tiny, narrow streets with houses rising vertically up at both sides, and wide boulevards. Cobbles, cracked roads, paving stones and smooth surfaces. It could be a really tricky last 5kms or so and I wouldn't be surprised to see some crashes. 

And then they come to the crucial final two kilometres. First they double back on themselves through a tight bend inside the last 2kms, down a little hill, through a chicane and on to the main road. From about 1.8km to 1km to go they race on a wide main road as they head out of the town briefly, which might give teams a brief chance to try to regroup and get their puncheurs and GC men to the front for the finale. (right)

The road kinks left and right off the main road and on to a really small road all of a sudden, positioning will be crucial, as from here there is less than 800m to go. The stats say it averages 8.5% for the final kilometre, but it's not too steep for about 200m after they come off the main road, before kicking up steeply for the last 700m or so.. so the actual final run to the line, averages closer to 10%, with a section hitting 13% through the left-hand bend. 

It looks to be steepest in that long straight of about 300m just before the bend (bottom left), it's a bit steeper through the bend (13% on the inside) and the last 300m to the line is straight and on a reasonably wide road, and is still quite steep, around 10%.(right)

Contenders and Favourites

Now this is more like it.. a much more challenging and interesting stage, but also a very difficult stage to try to pick the winner of! The prices came out on Sunday night and Bet365 made Tim Wellens their 7/2 favourite.. So how do I think it will pan out? Well, I think that we should get a proper break go in this stage as opposed to the faux breaks we've seen so far which have been a battle between Israel Cycling Academy's Boivin and Barbin of Bardiani.

This is like an Ardennes Classic with relentless hills all day, with a very tricky finish. The break has a small chance, but I think a lot of riders will fancy this finish, and some will look at it as an opportunity to move up the GC, possibly even take the leader's jersey.. Pelle Bilbao is one who could be possibly able to do that, but it would involve him winning the stage with a decent time gap, but that's a bit of a tall ask.. He is being backed for it though, he was 80/1 when they opened, then went 66/1 quickly, but is now just 28/1. He is in great form though, as we saw with his powerful TT performance, I don't think many saw a 6th place ride coming from him in that field.. 

And not only was that ride impressive, but he also rode very well in the ToTA, winning the first stage after attacking on the lumpy run in to the town, and soloing to victory as the chasers dallied again. He also has a lot of top tens to his name this year and so has a good chance.. but he's up against a far stronger field here and will not be just let slip away like he did in Romandie.. BMC will not let him just take the jersey easy like that. 80/1 and 66/1 was worth a bet, 28/1 isn't.. 

So Tim Wellens then, the 7/2 favourite.. What do we make of his chances? Well, he will have to attack away from the field like he did in the Brabantse Pijl, but to be honest, I can't see him being let go from this field in the closing kilometres.. The thing is though, if there is a late attack on that hill up to San Bartolomeo, we could well see Wellens go there.. he's the kind of guy who could get away, get 30" and hold them at bay over the closing kilometres.. It will be harder for the peloton than some lone riders coming through those narrow streets and tight bends. But holding a small advantage up that main road and up the steep finishing section will be really hard..

But Wellens could win from a select GC group sprinting up that final hill too though, like when he won the sprint for 2nd in stage 6 in Paris Nice, they had let Molard go, but Wellens won from the main group.. but this is an uphill sprint, will he be as effective? I'm not so sure, he's too short at that price to get me interested. 

Diego Ulissi will love this finish, but he will have to find some of the form that has seen him win many times on finishes like this.. He has not won this year though and the closest he has come to a victory was 4th in the stage to Uraidla of the TDU, he wasn't even in the top 10 of the finish to Stirling he has done so well on in the past. His form is worrying, UAE don't seem to be in tip-top form either, and he might be tasked with making sure Aru doesn't lose any time.. all-in-all, I see too many negatives to make him 2nd favourite. 

Michael Woods.. Will love the last 500m, but we've said that so many times before.. he has made so many mistakes in the past, bad positioning, bad finishing etc.. but the way he finished in LBL was much more impressive and much more professional. But it was just a charge up a hill against a lot of tired guys, this finish is far trickier.. Positioning will be vital coming in to that twisty chicane at the bottom of the hill, but even if he is 20 or 30 guys back he should be able to work his way through this field.. will it be enough to see him go clear and take the stage? Hard to say..

Now Simon Yates is almost the opposite.. this guy has a killer instinct and knows how to finish off races. Winner of a stage in Paris Nice and Catalunya where he used his explosive power and attacking nous, Yates will love this finish too.. He rode a fantastic TT to put him just 21" behind Dennis in the GC, a stage win and a 12" gap and the pink jersey is his. And M-S have multiple cards to play here. Roman Kreuziger has been riding exceptionally well in the Ardennes races, and this is like an Ardennes race for a lot of the last 20kms or so..

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kreuziger attack early to make the others chase and give Yates and the rest of the team an easy run-in, then Chaves could attack early at the bottom of the climb to make others chase again.. then for Yates to pounce in the last 500m. I think he has a big chance and he's my main bet at 9/1 with Bet365.

Thibaut Pinot is next in the betting at 14/1, and you'd expect him to be right up there with the GC men battling for this stage.. And his strength in a sprint could see him battle it out for a good placing.. but will he be nimble and punchy enough to go with the likes of Yates when he goes? I'm not sure.. so I think he could be right up there with the likes of Dumoulin and Froome, but they may be a little behind the punchy guys.

Zdenek Stybar is next in the betting, but I think he has lost a little of his punch for finishes like this, I can't see him taking on the likes of Yates and Lopez here, unless he has gone in the break of the day and they manage to succeed. Patrick Konrad is just 25/1, a guy who has never won a pro race in his career.. He'll be there or there abouts in the top 20 I think, but won't be winning. Tom Dumoulin is 25/1 also, and it would be pretty spectacular I think to see him sprinting to the stage win and the pink jersey tomorrow.. I can't see it happening, I think he'll be saving energy and just marking his GC rivals, there's another two tough stages in Sicily still to come. 

Gio Visconti might go in the break of the day, he might go in a late break which goes on the pull up to San Bortolomeo, he could attack on the final climb.. but he's not shown enough for me in recent years to say he can skip away late on to take this.. so it will have to be from a break I think, and I'm not sure he'll be up for that either.. he has started very poor in this race, he was way down in 140th in the TT and lost over a minute on the first two stages in Israel too. It may be he was building up a buffer to allow him to attack, but it is worrying.. And with Pozzo so high up the GC, he will probably be asked to guide him to the final hill in a good position. 

Carlos Betancur at 28/1? I'd have laughed at that a few days ago, but that TT was sensational.. the little Colombian rode a superb TT to finish 11th, just 28" off of Dumoulin's time and just 1" behind Tony Martin! I don't know where that ride came from, but Movistar have said he is leading the team in this race, so he must be showing good numbers in training too. Hard to trust him though until we see him when the road goes uphill, I think I'll hold off for now and maybe think about backing him later in the race if he shows good legs tomorrow. 

Sergio Luis Henao will be looking after Chris Froome I think, neither of them will win, Matej Mohoric at 33/1 will need to have attacked earlier, either in the break of the day or on a later attack, then try to escape solo before he hits the final hill.. not sure he can to that. Jose Goncalves looked very good in the TT, beating Dennis at the intermediate and finishing 4th.. he's only 13" behind Dennis, a stage win and a 4" gap and he could be in pink too.. But there's absolutely nothing in his palmares to suggest he can pull this off tomorrow. 

Ben Hermans could be a dark horse for a stage win here too, he's reportedly in excellent shape, and now the attention and circus of Israel is behind them, the Israeli team might start to relax and enjoy their racing.. He rode ok in the ToTA to finish 13th overall, with two top 10 placings to his name. He has won on Green Mountain and the tough uphill finish in Al Bustan in the Tour of Oman. At 66/1 with Skybet, why not.. 

Domenico Pozzovivo is 50/1, M A Lopez is 66/1, you'd think they'll be up there battling too, but they are more the long climb kind of guys rather than a punchy finish like this.. Hard to see many more getting in to it, but Richard Carapaz looks a big price at 150/1, the Movistar guys could have a few involved at the business end here, freelancing and attacking when they please.. Carapaz could be one of them. And my old friend Gianluca Brambilla - I think he could be involved in a stage like this, and he gives us multiple ways that he could get involved, including late break or a punchy surge up that last hill.. at 80/1 he's worth a few quid too. 

So a hard stage to call, but we'll probably see the GC teams pull this back together to try to give their men near the top of the GC a chance to pull some time back or possibly even take the Pink off of Dennis. It will be wild coming through the small streets in the last 5kms, it will settle down a bit in the pull up the main road, and then every man for himself on that last hill... We could see some GC men slip a little time, but generally there won't be big time gaps I think.. It will be interesting to see where Froome and Dumoulin finish though, to see how their climbing legs are..  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Simon Yates at 9/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Ben Hermans at 66/1 with Skybet

0.3pts 3/1 on Gianluca Brambilla at 80/1 with Bet365

0.25pts e/w on Richard Carapaz at 150/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Betancur to beat Goncalves - 2pts at 6/5

Woods to beat Wellens - 3pts at 11/10

Carapaz to beat O'Connor and Bilbao to beat LL Sanchez - 2pts at 11/10

Add Dennis to beat Schachmann to make it a treble at 2.37/1 - 2pts on that too

Brambilla to beat Geniez - 2pts at 5/6