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Published on Saturday, 05 May 2018 18:20

Giro d'Italia St 3

Be'er Shiva - Eilat

Sunday 6th May, 229kms

Stage 3 in Israel sees them take on something like a stage of the Tour of Dubai when they spend the majority of the stage riding through a desert in 26 degree heat, ahead of an inevitable sprint finish. 

Nothing to get excited about with this stage, roll on Sicily. It's going to be long and boring, 229kms through a desert, with a flat last 50kms. The finish in Eilat is going to be tricky though, with tired bodies having to negotiate narrow streets, roundabouts and u-turns, we could see a big squeeze from GC teams and sprinters teams trying to position their top men and it could lead to some incidents. Fingers crossed they all stay upright (I'm looking at you Sacha).

Stage 2 Review

A pretty typical opening stage of a Grand Tour, not a lot to talk about really, bar the intermediate sprint and the final sprint. BMC lit things up for 10kms coming to the intermediate sprint with 61kms to go, Nico Roche stringing out the peloton in to one long line.. And they gor their reward, as Dennis popped out to take the sprint, despite almost being boxed in by his own team mate.. as a result, he joins an elite group of riders who have led all three Grand Tours. 

Not a lot to say about the rest of the stage, Guillame Boivin did go on the attack for the Israeli team, but was just left dangle out the front for most of the last 50kms. It was the second time in the stage he had gone on the attack, he had tried to win the KOM jersey on the little hill, but Barbin beat him to it.. he has another chance tomorrow to take it off him on the hill at Faran River. 

The last 10kms were chaotic.. riders and teams all over the place and it looked for a while like Viviani was too far back and may not be able to get in to it. Bennett got a good lead in, as did Modolo but they waited, and waited.. and suddenly Marezcko came from a mile back on the left hand side and shot right past them on the left.. Viviani reacted in the blink of an eye to jump on Mareczko's wheel, chopping Bonifazio out of it in the process.. And suddenly it was just a two-horse race, Kubo coming up the middle in a Caleb Ewan type sprint, Viviani flying down the left of the road. Vivani won it comfortably in the end, and Bennett finally got going and almost took 2nd from Kubo.

Bonifazio did well after being chopped up by Viviani to take 4th, Modolo blew it following Bennett, but was one-paced in the end, I think we'll be hoping he goes better on the lumpier stages to win that stage for us.. Gibbons was impressive too in 7th, easily landing the matchbet at 5/6, and with Jempy Drucker taking 10th, the double landed too, to give us a 1.5pt profit on the day. Venturini sprinted well to take 6th for AG2R. 

The Route

The route follows the mild undulations of the Negev desert, leaving Be'er Shiva in the north and heading south towards Eilat, a tourist seaside spot on the Red Sea. The roads are always wide and well paved, but it takes a long run across a rocky landscape, and becomes rougher especially when emerging from the Ramon Crater, with a categorised climb to Faran River after 127kms. It's not really a climb though, it's just 1.2kms long at 7.2%, just a speed bump with 100kms still to run.

The final part of the route descends slightly towards the Red Sea, and enters the city, passing close to the finish line. Over the last 6 km, the road narrows while passing through a checkpoint. After taking in a series of roundabouts, the route eventually takes a U-turn 1.6km before the finish, and then another roundabout leading into the final kilometre.

The last bend is just 350m from the finish line so positioning coming in to the last U-turn with 1.6kms to go and the final bend is going to be crucial. 

Contenders and Favourites

We might get a stronger break go tomorrow than we saw today, but with two intermediate sprints coming inside the first third of the race, we might see another battle for the 6 bonus seconds and points, there's only 32kms between the two sprints. 

We saw today though that QuickStep Floors are a mess, but it doesn't really matter.. Viviani I've told you all before likes to just surf wheels rather than get a full leadout, a Sky soigneur told me that once at a Tour of Britain event. He wasn't that far back when it mattered most, he was on Bennett's wheel and his turn of pace was too much for the rest. Tomorrow is going to be a very technical and tricky finish again.. far worse than today. The last 3kms are littered with roundabouts and tricky turns - none more so than the U-turn they have to make with 1800m to go. 

You will need to be in the first 15 or so coming through that u-turn in order to have a chance in that sprint, possibly even the first 10.. they kink right just before the 1km to go mark and up Durban street to the point of the most important turn of the whole race as far as I'm concerned.. And that's not only because it comes with just 300m to go, but also the turn from Durban St to Kamen street is very narrow as you can see below..

If you are not in the first 10 coming through here, forget about it, you will not be able to get back up in time. 

Elia Viviani will have to be a bit closer than he was with 2kms to go, but you'd expect once they straighten up that he'll pop in to position with the help of Morkov or Stybar in preparation for that final bend. If he gets through the final bend in the first 5 or so and gets a quick jump it will be very hard to beat him

Sam Bennett made a bit of a mess of it today, hesitating, his confidence is probably a bit low after messing up two sprints in a row.. And the pressure mounts with every missed opportunity.. But he's a fighter and he showed at the finish that he has the speed, once he got going he almost caught up with Marezcko.. Bora seemed to do almost everything right today, but left him a little isolated, with only Selig in front hitting the last 400m. And he wasn't going fast enough, Bennett got a slow start to his sprint, but he finished very fast and almost caught Kubo on the line.

If they do a leadout like that tomorrow, I don't think he'll win, but if they can pull him through the last bend with two men in front, I think he wins, as he'll be able to launch his sprint as soon almost as soon as they straighten up and if he gets a jump on the rest he might not be caught. The short price on Viv makes Bennett a bit more tempting, but at 7/2, it doesn't leave much room for error. If he was 4/1 or bigger he would be a bet to nothing I think e/w, he should be first 3 again.. 

Danny Van Poppel had a shocker today, he was just unable to sprint when it came to it, he tried to get out the saddle, he was right there with the first 10 starting the sprint, but he had nothing when he tried to kick. He looked down at his bike, sat up a bit and rolled home in 15th place, a big disappointment for those who thought he might beat the top two in the betting. Based on that, I can't see him troubling the top 3 again tomorrow. 

Sacha Modolo was disappointing, he picked the wrong wheel in Sam Bennett's today, but he was also not really able to pick it up when they got going.. He'll need to be in a really great position in to that last turn to get anywhere near Bennett or Viv though, and I'm not risking any more on him until he proves to us that he has the speed. He'll get his chance on the lumpier stages to come I think.

Jakub Marezcko was superb today at the finish, he jumped first, came through the pack like a rocket, got a lucky clean run through, because someone could have veered left just as he took off, but unfortunately for him Viviani was straight on his wheel and was just too good for him. If he can replicate that acceleration out of the final bend and gets a head start again, and maybe Viviani is a little out of position, then he might hold on this time. But it's that positioning is going to be crucial, he was left on his own a little today and he sometimes can blow a good opportunity with poor positioning. But at 9/1 he might be worth taking on for the e/w again, he showed superb speed, and the rest were floundering a bit. 

Niccolo Bonifazio was on Mareczko's wheel today only for Viviani to jump in in front of him.. I wonder if Nico had stayed with Kubo and not let Viv in front of him would the outcome have been different? Not that Nico would have won, but he might have got a lot closer.. But as it was, he did pretty well to take 4th, some good points in the bag for the Points competition... but can he get closer tomorrow? I think it's unlikely.. that team just don't have the personnel to look after him and he'll be fighting for his life just to be in the first 10 I think.. so he'll be too far back probably to be able to notch a podium.. But he won't be far off..

Clement Venturini, Ryan Gibbons, Manuel Beletti, Baptiste Planckaert, Jempy Drucker, Andrea Guardini, Jens Debusscherre, Mads Pedersen.. they will all be close too, but might not be good enough, unless they get a good line through that last bend.. But Gibbons is 80/1.. at that price he's worth a shot, he might get closer if Van Rensburg can take care of him through the last 2kms. Hard to see past Viviani though, but 4/7 is a silly price given how tricky this finale is, I'd rather lay him than back him at that price.  Not a day for big stakes on the stage win I think, just a dabble, and a go at the matchbets.

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Jakub Mareczko at 9/1

0.25pts e/w on Ryan Gibbons at 66/1 (sorry, while I was writing this he was cut to 66/1, I missed the 80/1.. but 66/1 is ok too)

Matchbets:

Van Poppel to beat Debuscherre and Mareczko to beat Guardini - 3pts at 9/10

Gibbons to beat Venturini - 2pts at evens

Modolo to beat Bonifazio - 2pts at 11/10