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Published on Tuesday, 22 May 2018 22:32

Giro d'Italia St 18

Abbiategrasso to Pr. Nevoso

Thursday 24th May, 196kms 

This is an interesting stage.. it's long at 196kms, especially when you consider that the first 176kms of it are pretty boring and uneventful.. but then it bursts in to life in the final 20kms as they head skywards to the finish at the ski station of Prato Nevoso.

So here we go then, the first of an important trilogy of mountain stages that was supposed to shape he outcome of this race, where Dumoulin would be defending and the likes of Froome, Lopez, Pinot and Pozzovivo were supposed to be attacking him to try to take the pink off of him. But instead now, surprise package Simon Yates is in the box seat and all the others have to attack him. But he doesn't look like he's going to crack any time soon, and his buffer to Dumoulin is a very healthy looking 56". Dumoulin is not a rider who can accelerate away from his rivals, with a vicious acceleration, that is Yates's domain..

So how's he going to beat him? It will take an issue for Yates it would seem. But as we've seen already in this Giro and in plenty of Giro's in the past, anything can happen. One bad day, one mistake, one puncture or stuck rear mech and he could be in trouble - after the way the others left Tom behind last year when he had to poop, I can't see him hanging around for Yates if there's a racing incident. 

Stage 17 Review

What more can you say about this crazy fucking Giro. In a normal Grand Tour, forever and ever, a break goes, they get 7 or 8 minutes and it's touch and go whether they are reeled in or not. Today, we got two men in the breaks at various points, with Krists Neilands trying repeatedly, Luis Leon Sanchez trying repeatedly and getting proper pissed off with the state of affair but eventually getting in the only break that got a bit of leeway. And even then they were closed down with about 18kms to go. 

The pace was mental from the start - that is, once they got going, because QSF employed dirty tactics once again, this time one of their riders suffered a 'mechanical' in the neutralised zone and the commissaires were forced to delay the start of the race proper until all riders were in the bunch. This effectively neutralised most of the opening climb that everyone, particularly Viviani had been fearing. As a result, by the time we got live pictures the race was basically together, with only about 3kms of the 10kms climb left to go. The hill didn't create the break we all hoped for, and although Viviani did struggle a little, he was comfortably able to stay with the peloton. 

And the pace carried on being mental - over 46kmph average speed today, as Bora drilled it thinking Viviani was dropped, only for him to be sitting about 10 riders back, and even Aru came to the front attacking, whatever the bloody point of that was. Lotto drove it on, UAE drove it on, Bora again, Bora again, but no Quickstep - instead Stybar attacked late on to make them chase some more, until when it got to the last kilometre, Viviani did his wheel surfing exhibition again, Bennett got boxed in again and Modolo was just utter shite again. He braked going in to the final bend with about 300m to go and lost about 5 places. Brainless.

So Viviani takes another stage at a big price of 13/2, no breakaway winner yet, and it doesn't look like there will be one. Actually, watch now, the break will make it tomorrow when we all think it won't, just to piss us all off even more. Looks like he has wrapped up the Points competition too, and unless Modolo can do something spectacular in the final stage and Yates falls off, it looks like he will finish in 4th and out of the e/w places too. Sums up just how this Giro has gone eh.  

The Route

This stage sees them head south-west from the suburbs of Milan for the whole day, running along the Po plain north of the Gulf of Genoa, with nothing of note for 135kms. The only thing to worry about is that they go through a lot of towns and urban areas and the traffic furniture that comes with that sort of terrain can cause problems. There is a little bump in the road at Novello, a Cat 4 climb that they'll barely even notice, and then it's on towards Mondovi after 170kms where the road starts to rise gently as they approach the foothills of the final climb. 

The climb to the ski station at Prato Nevoso is a pretty regular climb, just shy of 14kms in length, averaging 7%. The 2.5km to 7km mark is  little steeper at 7.8% average, but the last 7kms are pretty steady around 6.6%, but it does really start to wind through the hairpins and turns, there are 11 hairpin bends in the last 5kms. The finishing straight is 200m long and averages just 4.5%. 

Contenders

Another stage for Simon Yates? The way he's riding it wouldn't surprise anyone. The profile is not as difficult as he'd like probably, but the numerous hairpin bends inside the last 5kms gives him ample opportunity to attack on the steeper parts of the bend and try to stretch away from the slower accelerators Dumoulin, Froome and Pinot. The sections around 5kms to 2kms to go will be where he'll fancy a dig you'd think, as it is a little steeper at between 7.2-8%, but then it eases back to 5.5% and 4.7% in the last two kilometres. 

Simon Yates is sure to try to crown this race with a fourth victory, it would have been four already but for him gifting the stage on Etna to Chaves. He is the fastest climber here at the moment, he seems to be able to ride away from the others with ease, hard to look past him again. But how deep has he had to go so far in the race? How deep did he go in the TT to limit his loss to Dumoulin? Well he's hardly even looked out of breath so far in this race, hardly a grimace on his face. It looks like he is not troubled at all, a lot less than any of those around him anyway. 

Tom Dumoulin has to start taking back time.. the race is almost over. He has three days in which to make up a minute. A stage win and a 30" gap will be a start today, but is he even capable of it? Well, yes he is, as we saw how he burned off the opposition including Quintana on Oropa last year. He will need to just set a ridiculously high tempo and try to burn them all off one by one, easier said than done, a lot of these guys are expert wheel-suckers. He won't have much help at all from his team-mates, not from the opposition, but if Pinot, Froome (and Poels) and Dumoulin can form a bit of a power-mens alliance they might put Yates under a bit of pressure and they could distance him. 

Thibaut Pinot had a horror show though in the TT, one of the worst TT performances you're likely to see from a podium contender. He was cornering on easy corners on the breaks, and crawled home through the streets of the finish town. His legs and his head were gone and it might well affect him in the coming days too. But he should like this climb and the finish, and it could be a way for him to attone for his poor TT.

Froome has jumped above him on the GC now in to 4th, but a 10" bonus and a small gap on Froome could put him back above him. The gap to Pozzo is a minute, but if he can chip away here and in the next stages he could end up on the podium still. He will need to stay with Yates when he goes, but so far he has mostly been able to do that, except on that last stage to Sappada when he couldn't.. but maybe there were warning signs there too when he couldn't win the sprint for 2nd, he normally is good at the sprint finishes. In fact he finished last of the group of five chasers. That was more or less a flat finish, this one rises to the line at just over 4%. 

Chris Froome - hot and cold, cold and hot.. which Chris will we see this time? Well he was amazing on Zoncolan, then couldn't go with the moves the next day. His TT was pretty good, better than I expected in 5th, he did a good second half split. He is sounding confident of taking a podium spot at worst overall and the team are fully behind him for his tilt at it. He needs 40" on Pozzovivo, and that's a big ask considering how well Pozzo has been riding, following wheels, he'll do well to accelerate away from all of these guys, Pozzo especially.

He was caught out in some of the splits today, which doesn't augur well for how he will do when the pace ups tomorrow, and I have a feeling we might see cold Chris again tomorrow, I am not sure this climb suits him very well, it's a bit more like the climbs he was dropped on on Sunday. 

Miguel Angel Lopez seems to be riding in to this race, he has finally started to move up the GC in the mountains, although he did slip back two places after the TT. He is only 33" behind Dennis though and he'd fancy his chances of taking him one of these days, whether he goes for the stage win tomorrow so as not to let days slip by remains to be seen, but I think he'll be involved in the moves that go, he's finished 2nd and 4th in the last two mountain top finishes here. Astana sent Sanchez up the road today, they might do something similar again tomorrow to save them chasing, but Lopez will be able to look after himself, and could pounce for a late attack.

Another rider who could pounce with a late attack is Richard Carapaz, this finish is very similar to the finish on stage 8 to Montevergine, with a twisty climb averaging around 5.5% over the closing kilometres. It might be a case again of the other guys watching Yates, and Yates just happy to ride defensively until he gets a chance to try a late attack, but meanwhile Carapaz could go for it. But if he goes, Lopez will be right on his case, as they are still scrapping it out for the white jersey. 

Davide Formolo is another rider who has blown hot and cold in this race, but when he has been hot, he has gone very well indeed, such as his 2nd on that stage behind Carapaz and his 3rd on the stage to Osimo. Now if Lopez and Carapaz try marking each other out of it, maybe Formolo could be one to take advantage, he's 10 mins down and outside the top 10, so he might be given some rope. But his main tactics so far have been to sit in, rather than attack, he might just try waiting for the sprint finish if it comes to it again, where he'd still have a shot at the podium I think. 

Or what about Pelle Bilbao? He has been riding superbly too and sits in 8th place overall, an incredible feat considering we have barely seen him in this race. That is a Haimar Zubeldia type of performance, can he cap his top ten finish (pending) with a stage win? Maybe Carapaz can be a foil for him to counter, or even win the sprint, he would have one of the better sprints here too if it comes to it. And as we saw with his late attack in the first stage of the Tour of the Alps, he's not bad at a late attack either.. but that will be harder to pull off given his GC position. 

George Bennett, Sam Oomen, Gulio Ciccone, Michael Woods, Fausto Masnada, Robert Gesink, Patrick Konrad, Diego Ulissi and Alexandre Geniez - all guys who will be involved in one way or the other, but just don't appeal to me as potential winners. And the usual suspects of Alessandro Di Marchi, Luis Leon and Ben Hermans burnt a lot of matches today in their break attempt, maybe they'll take it easy tomorrow and try again later in the week.

And what about Woet Poels? He's been flying in the last few days, and even went off on the attack today, he might fancy an attack late on this stage, Froome might give him the nod to give it a go. And we've seen what he can do when he goes hard, and if the others look around them a bit, watching Froome, he might get a gap and could power to the finish.  

One guy who I was tempted to get on again was Enrico Battaglin.. He might just be able to hang in there and we know he has a great sprint finish on a hill like this.. But I think he will be absolutely at his limit when the top climbers go full gas. Robert Gesink could also fancy a dig tomorrow, but I'm going to save my stakes on him for the next two stages, I think he might give it a go on the tougher stages to come.

And what about Fabio Aru? Will he be able to rocket up the climb without the aid of a motorbike to pace him? Was that a flash in the pan or will he suddenly switch it on now that he's had his rest day vitamins? I'm not sure for tomorrow's stage.. maybe later in the week depending on how he goes tomorrow. 

The break might make it of course, but I've given up trying to pick winners from a break, and with a long flat run to the final climb, I think the GC men's teams will set it up again. There is a slight cross/headwind on the final climb, but it will be a tailwind all day as they head south-west, so it could be another very fast day. It might take a long time for the break to form again, and it might well be kept close, to gear up for a GC battle on the final climb.

Who's going to chase? Mitchelton Scott probably won't, there is no need for them to, and risk giving away bonus seconds to someone like Pinot or Dumoulin, but if it does come back together, Yates will surely fancy it. Sunweb will probably want to save energy for the stages to come, so it might be up to Sky, Astana and Movistar to do the work. 

So let's have a go at a few of the others besides the main favourites for the finish here, but we all know that Yates is probably just going to win it anyway.  

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Miguel Angel Lopez at 12/1 with Will Hill

0.4pts win on Richard Carapaz at 40/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Davide Formolo at 33/1 with 365

0.4pts win on Woet Poels at 22/1 with 365

Matchbets

Ben O'Connor to beat Betancur - 2pts at evens

Formolo to beat Geniez and Poels to beat Reichenbach - 2pts at 5/4

Dennis to beat Henao and Woods to beat Oomen - 2pts at evens