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Published on Saturday, 19 May 2018 21:12

Giro d'Italia St.15

Tolmezo to Sappada

Sunday 20th May, 176kms

This could be one of the best stages of the race, a wild and brutal run over the Dolomites just on the Italian side of the Austrian border. The start and finish are only 45kms apart, but they go off on a 176kms loop of the Dolomites 

The famous Monte Zoncolan climb is about half-way between the start and finish towns, but luckily for the riders on this occassion they go off on a horseshoe shaped loop that takes them away from the climb. It is relentless all day with four categorised climbs and another three uncategorised climbs to negotiate, including the pull up to the finish in Sappada, which hits 6.6% average for around 2.5kms and a max of 10%. 

Stage 13 Review

Well the break of the day was a major disappointment, with a bunch of no-hopers going away early on, and never getting more than about 6 minutes maximum. It thinned down to only 5 riders after going over the extremeny difficult Passo Duron, with Didier the interloper in a group of Italians. Mitchelton-Scott too up the pace-making early, Astana were looking strong until Sanchez had a mechanical, and Sky were sort of all over the place, not really riding as a group at all. Conti and Barbin survived to lead the race on to the Zoncolan but had only 52" lead and were caught pretty quick. 

Igor Anton, a winner in the past on Zoncolan was the first to make his move, while Astana took up the pulling behind, along with Bahrain Merida. But then Woet Poels came to the front.. why was Poels pulling? Is Chris feeling good or something? Was he heck.. Froome went from being at the back of the bunch with 8kms to go, dangling a little, to attacking with 4kms to go.. and getting a gap.. surely he will come back, surely Yates and the rest will catch him? No.. Froome just kept charging up the hill, Yates had to go after him on his own, and Dumoulin was slipping back.

Froome hung on from a fast-finishing Yates to take a stunning stage win.. I think he was 26/1 or something like that on Betfair for the win, Doubt he has been as big a price for a mountain top finish for 3 years or more. Domenico Pozzovivo came home 23" later, followed by Lopez 2" after him, But Tom Dumoulin rode brilliantly to limit his losses to Yates to just 31", I think he'd have been happy losing a minute. It's still advantage Tom as far as I'm concerned, and he is still top of the betting.. Froome has indeed started to switch it on as I said he might, he's in to 11/1 from 50/1 a few days ago.

Aru is all but out of it now, Carapaz lost some time again, as did Bennett and Formolo, but Rohan Dennis did well considering, he finished in 19th and although he has slipped down to 11th he will take 3 mins or so off most of those above him in the TT and should move back up in to the top ten on Tuesday afternoon.  

The Route

This stage across the Dolomites features a steady series of climbs and descents with barely a flat section of road for 176kms. The road rises from the flag drop, gently at first, before hitting an uncategorised climb up towards Galleria which averages 4.6% for 7.6kms, a great launching platform for the break of the day. After a short descent the road climbs in steps at first before starting the first categorised climb of the day after 40kms, the Cat 3 Passo Della Mauria, a 8.8km drag at 4.4% average, but the main part of the climb averages 5.4% for 5kms. 

After the descent the road drags gently upwards for the next 40kms or so before they tackle the highest summit of the day, the Cat 2 Passo Tre Croci which is shortish at 8kms, but averages 7.3%. The profile of the climb suggests that they are taking the gravel road off of the climb for 4kms or so (see the grey section on the downhill section of the profile on the right), the surface of which looks very rough and uneven.. Hopefully it won't cause any problems. 

They descend for 28kms before they hit the steepest climb of the day, the Passo di Sant’Antonio, a 7.3km Cat 2 climb that averages 8.2%. It's the first time ascending this side, and hits gradients exceeding 10% over long stretches. Shortly after that they do the Costalissoio, a short but steep climb that makes it's debut in the Giro, it averages 9% over 3.75kms.

After descending into San Pietro di Cadore, the route follows the Piave river all the way to Sappada, heading for the finish. All the roads are relatively wide and well surfaced, with a number of up- and downhill hairpins. The final 10kms are all uphill. After passing through a tunnel (partly open on one side), the route climbs at gradients of around 6.6% for 2.5kms kilometres, hitting a max of 10%. It then reaches the centre of Sappada, where the road eventually levels out in the final kilometre, with one arching, curved road to negotiate before a straight run for the last 450m. 

Contenders and Favourites

This could be another wild stage.. Looks like the guys who might have been considered break candidates today might well be just saving themselves for this one tomorrow, none of the usual suspects got involved. I give the break a 70% chance of making it tomorrow, the GC favourites and their teams will be shattered after today's brutal stage and the guys who have their eye on this stage tomorrow took it very easy today. 

It is a very difficult stage again though, make no mistake about that, no easing back after the nastiness of the Zoncolan. Three Cat 2 climbs in the closing 90kms, whoever goes in the break today will need to keep something in reserve for the last 30kms, it's up and down over three hills one after the other, two cat 2s and a pull up to the finish at Sapada. It does ease back a little for the last kilometre, so if there is a small group does make it to the finish it might come down to who can sprint the best at the end of the stage. 

So who to look out for for today's break then? This looks like a stage that the likes of Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, Ben Hermans and Luis Leon Sanchez will fancy, Sanchez in particular could be looking to make up for the mechanical that afflicted him today. It hit at just the worst time as the pace was picking up, but he flew back up through the pack to do a job for Lopez.. Maybe he'll be let off the leash tommorrow to have a go for himself. 

Gio Visconti also rode well today, he did a job for Pozzovivo on the Zoncolan until he blew up, but then he rolled in in his own time. If he does get in the break he will like this finish, he will fly up that final hill and be one of the fastest in a sprint. 

Ben Hermans wife and kid were at the finish of the Zoncolan today apparently, it gave some a reason to back him, but it didn't help him, he finished over 8 mins down. Maybe they will still be around seeing as it's the weekend, and he might like this one a bit better. Koen Bouwman might have another go, he took it easy today on the Zoncolan but he is definitely up for another attack, he's keen to try to take a stage after coming so close before. 

Gianluca Brambilla and Jarlinson Pantano are two likely suspects again, but they have been disappointing. I'm sick of backing Gesink with no joy, he'll probably go out and win tomorrow when I'm not on him... But I think he might well be staying looking after Bennett and Battaglin, Battaglin could make it to the finish if it becomes a GC day. And there are so many other guys who we think might try.. but so far, none of them have done anything.. Atapuma, Polanc, Betancur, De La Cruz, Plaza, Cherel, Roche etc.. Not going to give them another go. 

And if it comes to the GC men, we'll see Yates trying to take more time off of Dumoulin by attacking with 4.5kms to go on the steeper 10% parts, but as it eases towards the end we might see it all come back together. Rusty Woods said tonight that he thinks tomorrow is more a stage for him, he got a bit carried away today early on on the Zoncolan but he says that the finish tomorrow suits him a lot better. Thibaut Pinot would have a big chance of winning the sprint if it comes to a GC sprint finish, he is looking good and the time bonuses will lift him in to 3rd place. 

Froome is obviously back, but this isn't really a finish for him I think, nor Dumoulin or Pozzo or Lopez. But I give the break a big chance tomorrow and I am just going to scatter a few bets around on some I like, hopefully we'll get them in the break again and hopefully it actually makes it for once. I'm getting pretty sick of how this Giro is shaping up with breaks not making it every stage.. But just in case, I'm going to have a small e/w on Woods as well, in case he is true to his word. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Alessandro De Marchi at 40/1

0.5pts e/w on Giovanni Visconti at 20/1

0.5pts e/w on Luis Leon Sanchez at 20/1

0.25pts e/w on Koen Bowman at 66/1

0.3pts e/w on Michael Woods at 16/1

Matchbets:

Woods to beat Formolo and Schachmann to beat Goncalves - 2pts at 6/4

Ulissi to beat Cherel - 2pts at evens

Lopez to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 7/4 (too big a price for something that could be a coin toss, and if anything, Lopez might finish better on this finish.