Details

Published on Wednesday, 16 May 2018 21:28

Giro d'Italia St 13

Ferrara - N. Della Battaglia

Friday 18th May, 180kms 

Almost a carbon copy of stage 13 of last year, and almost a carbon copy of yesterday's stage. This is a boring flat stage, with a little hill thrown in 20kms from the finish to spice things up.. If it doesn't we're looking at a sprint finish. 

This stage is probably about 50kms longer than it needs to be, who wants to watch 150kms of flat nothingness before a little bump might affect the outcome of the stage.. But this is a very straight-forward stage, and unless a lot of riders are thinking about the torture to come the next day on Zoncolan, we're going to see another sprint finish. 

Stage 12 Review

Wham bam Bennett.. That was incredible from Sam today, he totally bossed the last 15kms of that stage, even attacking for a while on the hill.. It was a demonstration of both the power he has in his legs and the confidence coarsing through his veins the way he patrolled the front of the peloton. He was Sagan-esque the way he held his position at the front, riding in the top 2 or 3 places for the majority of the last 10kms, and launching a sprint from all of 500m out. It was a breath-taking win from Bennett, and it closes the battle for the Cyclamin jersey up to just 22pts. 

As soon as I saw Sam's fiancé Tara on TV at the finish line with about 15kms to go, I knew he was going to win.. My Cycling Weekly appearance a few months back saw me talking about the effect of having a loved one or family at the finish.. and how much extra watts it seems to give you. Tomorrow the stage finishes just 16kms from Conegliano, the home town of Sacha Modolo.. will we see him power home in front of family and friends?

And DVP made it a 1-2 for us, coming home ahead of the raggle-taggle bunch of sprinters that were left in the peloton, he too is finding his legs as I suspected and is going to be a real danger in the sprints going forward. He said afterwards that Bennett caught him by surprise, he didn't expect him to go from so far out and in fact he thought it was Bennett's leadout man who had gone to the front.

Niccolo Bonifazio is finally starting to come good too, taking 3rd place. Sacha Modolo blew a great chance, his team had worked their socks off to pull back the late attacks by Wellens and then Betancur and Mohoric, but Modolo couldn't deliver, finishing down in 13th place, beaten by a lot of non-sprinters. 

But it wasn't as much of a disaster as Viviani's performance, I thought he'd have been dropped on the final hill (I still maintain he would have), but what I didn't expect was him to be dropped in the cross-winds 10kms before the climb, he really is in poor shape at the moment, whatever is up with him. Carapaz and Pozzo were briefly in his group which were 20" back, they were able to make their way back up to the front, but Viviani couldn't. 

A 6.25pt profit on the day, it would have been a lot more but that 3pt matchbet double was awful, Pedersen was almost last on the stage and Venturini finished in the top 10. But we move on, another sprint tomorrow. 

The Route

A pretty boring looking stage, 180kms of almost total flatness along the Po valley. They head north-east all day, passing by the cities of Venice and Treviso. Shortly after Treviso, with 53kms to go they pass the 2nd intermediate sprint point, possibly a reason for some teams to try to reel the break in early, if some want to fight for points. 

hey pass through the finish line with 30kms to go and as they leave the town they hit the only obstacle of the day (if you exclude all the street furniture and roundabouts etc), the climb to Montello..

It's only a Cat 4 climb though and is unilikely to make any major impact on the outcome of the race, but we are sure to see some attacks and some teams look to string it out to put some sprinters under pressure.

There's a relatively gentle start to the climb, with the first 3kms just averaging 3.1%, then it flattens out and descends a little bit for 4.5kms before rising again for the last 3kms or so at an average of 4.4%..

Once over the top there's a descent for about 8kms and the last 10kms are dead flat. The run in to the finish is almost dead straight on good roads for the last 4.5kms, with the road arcing gently to the left inside the last kilometre. 

Contenders and Favourites

Hard one to call now after that stage today.. As I said, Elia Viviani is getting dropped on the steps to the sign-on podium at the moment, he seems to be lacking any ability to ride on hills, which is surprising for a guy who was one of the favourites for MSR this year. He looked very tired and pissed off on the podium today, he looks sick almost. 

Will he struggle on that hill again? It's very possible.. LottoNL Jumbo and Bora know what he's like now and will do all they can to drill it up the final hill. The difference to today is that the hill is a bit easier, and it's 20kms from the finish. Maybe QSF need to just rally around Viviani, try to stay as a group with him and then try to get him back on before the finish. 

But his confidence will have taken a knock again today, and he is looking more and more tired every day.. And if he does get over the hill, I think it will have taken something out of him again to get to the sprint, I can't have him at that price (7/4). I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him go home soon if he loses the jersey to Bennett, there's a lot of suffering between now and the last sprint in Rome. 

On the other hand, Sam Bennett was literally walking on water today.. he cruised up that hill, he attacked, he played with the peloton. And his acceleration was incredible. He is flying confidence wise and he knows that he can take the jersey and maybe hold it all the way to Rome if he wins tomorrow. Bora have their tails up, Konrad and Grosschartner are flying for him and he is so fast he should finish the job. But 11/10 is very short now, we saw what happened the other day when Mohoric held on.

I also think that DVP will be right up there again tomrorrow, he is getting faster, he is getting stronger (many were saying he would not make it over the hill with the leaders today) and his confidence is increasing. His post-race interview was all about the chance he lost because Bennett caught him by surprise, it sounded like he thought he would have given him a run for his money if they had started their sprint together. 

Sacha Modolo continues to disappoint, but we need to be aware of the power of the family and friends that could be at the finish tomorrow... 11/1 isn't enough to tempt me though, I think he'll be in the 4th to 10th bracket again. Niccolo Bonifazio is getting closer but lacks the top speed to win a stage like this and the likes of Belletti and Venturini will continue to play also-rans I think. Michael Morkov came very close today at that 150/1 I mentioned, if Viviani is out of the picture again the 80/1 might be a good e/w bet to have.. 

So who wins? Well, you'd have to think everything is now going in Bennett's favour.. confidence is high, he is clearly flying, and he seems to have Viviani cracked too. He's very short at 11/10 with the bookies, but 13/8 on Betfair is a bit better, we might even get 15/8 if you put orders up. Let's just reinvest a few points from our win today on him.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 15/8 on Betfair

If you get 7/4 or bigger in play on DVP to finish in the first three tomorrow have 2pts on that too

Matchbets:

DVP to beat Bonifazio, Modolo to beat Roelandts and Belletti to beat Gibbons - 2.5pts at 2/1

Add Venturini to beat Planckaert  to make it a four-fold - 1pt at 4.3/1