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Published on Tuesday, 15 May 2018 08:10

Giro d'Italia St 11

Assisi to Osimo

Wednesday 16th May, 156kms 

Stage 11 takes the riders north-east from Assisi to Osimo, on a rolling, punchy course that could be perfect for a breakaway. They pass through Folittrano on the way, home of Michele Scarponi who died out training just over a year ago. 

This looks like another possible breakaway stage, with a tough opening and a rolling finale, we could well see a solo rider take stage honours here, like Moreno Argentin did in 1994 when he rode away from his breakaway companions on the cobbled sector in the last kilometres. Davide Rebellin finished 3rd that day, with Gianni Bugno in 9th and Marco Pantani in 10th.. 

Stage 10 Review

Where do you even start? What a chaotic day that promised so much at the start only for us to be screwed over because Esteban Chaves had a shocker today. It was an amazing break that went away early on, a very powerful break of climbers and rouleurs, that could well have stayed away to the finish. And we had four men in there from my five break picks - Tony Martin, Mads Pedersen, Luis Leon Sanchez and our man Koen Bouwman, true to his word that he'd attack. 

Chaves apparently was suffering from pollen allergies or something, maybe just another rider who did something he wasn't supposed to on the rest day and it didn't agree with him. He was out the back door almost immediately and the GC leaders sensed blood and went for it. It meant that the pace was furious for the first 50kms and the breaks lead barely got over 2 mins, despite the firepower in it. And very quickly they were pulled back in, as Chaves lost more and more time. 

Up front, Mohoric attacked after Davide Villela, Nicola Denz of AG2R came after them and they eventually dropped Villela and went on to fight out the stage win. As predicted, Elia Viviani went out the back door earlier, I have no idea how he was made favourite for today. Sam Bennett could have won the stage if they had not let the breakers get such a gap, he easily won the sprint for 3rd. It was a huge loss for Chaves today, coming home more than 25' down on the leaders. It means that M-S are now just going to be focused on Yates, and thanks to Yates, Haig and Nieve they extended their lead in the Team Classification. But it did give a big boost to our Lopez bets. 

One interesting thing I heard today from someone very high up in the UK cycling journalism world.. he told me that he has heard from a 'very reliable source' that Froome is really going to go for it in week 3 and that they are not worried about the time loss so far.. I'm not sure I agree, but it might be worth considering some ways to capitalise on that, he's a huge price for the win on Betfair, or maybe a little hedge on the 'to not finish in the top 3' might be worth a look at?

Small 1pt loss today, I think we were very unlucky, the Bennett and Venturini matchbets won, Pedersen beat Debus and Sanchez beat Conti, but it was just a lottery with the others who were in the grupetto.. So bloody Sbaragli finished ahead of modolo, something that would not have happened normally. 

The Route

The route crosses the Umbro-Marchean Apennines, climbing more or less from the flag-drop, crossing an uncategorised peak after 30kms at Nocera Umbra, then kicks up again for the first categorised climb of the day, the Cat 3 Passo Cornello, a pretty steady climb which averages 4.4% for 8.5kms. It should be a perfect platform for a strong group of puncheurs and climbers to form the break of the day, and if it's strong enough, with no dangers to the GC in it, then they could just make it all the way. 

The course then descends for more or less 45kms before rising up again to take in the climb of the Valico di Pietra Rosso, which is 10kms at 3.7% average, nothing too difficult at all. 

They then continue through Cingoli and take in some of the iconic punchy climbs of this area (called “muri”), especially the Muro di Filottrano (1.5kms at 8.9%, hitting a max of 11% in the middle (right) which comes with just 30kms to go, it could be a great launching pad for someone to try to shed some of the weaker links of the break, or for the peloton to thin itself down a little ahead of the narrow roads in the finale. 

There are more muri to negotiate on the inner streets of Osimo in the stage finale. The roads are relatively wide, but the surface is pretty worn out at points and can be quite tricky.

The last 5 km are very demanding. In Osimo, the route takes in the Via del Borgo climb (300 m, with a 16% gradient), on pavé, and after a short and steep drop with a dangerous left-hander, the route climbs again, up Via Olimpia (approx. 1km, with 16% ramps over long stretches), and then enters the old town, still climbing slightly through a narrow archway. There are several tricky bends in the last 4kms, but the home straight is just 300 m long, on 7-m wide road.

Contenders and Favourites

As I said above already, this looks a perfect stage for a breakaway and I give them a high chance of succeeding. It is very similar to stage 11 in last year's race, which also looked perfect for a breakaway and was won by Omar Fraile from Rui Costa and Pierre Rolland, with interestingly Tanel Kangert, Gio Vicsconti and Ben Hermans also in the break and the top ten on the day. 

It is a kind of day I could see those two in the break again, they seem to like getting in breaks in the second and third weeks, and Giovanni Visconti has already shown interest already in this race to get in the breakaways. He was unfortunate to hit a car last week riding at 60kmph apparently and has had a bandaged arm since, but with a week or so of recovery, including the rest day, he should be fine. It didn't stop him for example going in the break on stage 9 to Gran Sasso. This is much more up his street though, that closing 5kms or so should see him come in to his own and dance up those Muri. He's just 20/1 though, it's a little bit short for me, if we can get 33/1 or bigger I'd have a go

Ben Hermans has been going ok, but shipping time almost every day. To a point now that he is over 17 mins down and not a threat. We saw a flash on Etna that the legs were good with an 11th place, but his results on the next two summit finishes leave a lot to be desired. This could be much more favourable for him though, this punchy finish is similar to Brabantse Pijl which he's won in 2015, and the punchy finish to Al Bustan in the Tour of Oman he won last year. He's one I'd like a small interest in too, I think one day he'll be involved in the finish of a stage, the Israeli team have yet to show anything in this race to justify getting an invite over the likes of AquaBlue.

Luis Leon Sanchez looks another likely candidate for this stage, if they let him off the leash, he'll like the early climbs to help build up a sufficient lead and will like the finish to this stage too. Diego Ulissi is similar, he has been riding ok, but without anything close to success, 16th on stage 8 was encouraging though, he was up there at the front of the race at the end of a tough climb. UAE will be starting to get twitchy now, with the failure of Aru so far, and the likes of Polanc being pretty disappointing in the breaks, they might tell him to get up the road (possibly with a team-mate) and he'd have a chance on this finish too. 

Tim Wellens is another obvious candidate, he's been very active this Giro, and has a stage win to his name already. He will have no problem getting in the break probably, if he wants to, and he may even have support from the likes of Armee or TVDS. And as we saw on stage 4 in Castelgirone, he has one hell of a punchy finish on him, he could well leave them all behind with 1.5kms to go. And he is also a possible candidate if he stays in the pack and they catch the breakaway before the finish, to attack on that hill too and solo to the finish. 

Do we give Koen Bouwman another go? I'll update this tonight depending on he did tomorrow! It was interesting speaking to my man in the LottoNL camp, he says he knows Enrico Battaglin, he used to race against him a lot, and he thinks he has never seen him in a break, that he hates it! Based on that, I'll be leaving him alone, I think he'll be happy to sit in the bunch and take a chance that it'll come back together for the finish. (update - Bouwman did indeed get in the break today, but seeing as they were reeled in so early, I wouldn't be surprised if he tries again tomorrow.. he was interviewed afterwards though and said he was 'fucked' but hopefully he'll be ok, he's worth a shot at 100/1)

This could finally be a stage for Jarlinson Pantano too.. I've been holding off on him as much as I can, I think he will get involved in a number of stages before this race is done, I just didn't think many of them up until now were completely suitable for him. This early climb will suit him just fine, the punch up to the finish should be ok for him too, and if he can be there with a small group in the last 500m, he has a chance of winning it in the sprint. 

His team-mate Gianluca Brambilla has been trying, he has been working hard in breaks, but just hasn't been able to make it count. He does look keen, he looks like he's climbing pretty well, I think he will get it right one of these days and it will come off for him.. unfortunately we might have to back him several times to make it pay off. He finished 7th in the sprint today so he clearly is showing good legs. Tomorrow could be one of those days, and I think he's worth an interest at 40/1 as he'll like this finish too. 

With Froome mis-firing so bad, is it time for Sky to try some other tactics? Do they try sending Woet Poels or David De La Cruz up the road to see how they fare? They have seemed below par so far in this race, as have all the Sky squad, they seem to be down about 50w at the moment.. funny that huh when there is increased scrutiny on them. It's the first time in a long time that we've not seen the Sky train dominate a race, and it's a pretty strong team they have here too. As tempted as I am to try one of them, I just can't bring myself to do it, and they might be just asked to look after Froome for now, it's not completely over for him yet, there's a lot of racing yet to go (they keep telling us). 

Could Nico Roche fancy this one? Maybe.. but if there is a sprightly sort with him coming to the finish, they may well leave him behind on the steep final climb. And what about Zdenek Stybar? He is a former winner of Strade Bianche after all with that finishing hill, if he is allowed go in the break he could have a really good day here, the last 50kms or so will suit him very well indeed.

He was dropped early on today, he probably stayed with Viviani, and he had to work hard for about 100kms to try to bring the group back.. but they eventually pulled the plug and rolled home. He might have expended a lot of energy early on, but he saved a lot compared to anyone in the front group over the closing 100kms or so. 

And there are my initial thoughts, I will come back to this tonight after today's stage and add more commentary when I see prices, I might sway one way or the other as to who to back depending on prices and how it goes today. I do think it's a day for the break though, I'll have a think about a saver from the GC guys too just in case it does come back together.  

Update 21.20 - So that was crazy today. Lots of riders got in the break, the usual suspects, but in the end it came to nothing. Martin was very sprightly, as were several others, but it was Mohoric who made the right move at the right time going over the top of the Annifo climb. But the overwhelming feeling from the peloton after today was one of exhaustion and surprise with the way the stage turned out. As Chad Haga put it "because one guy had bad legs, a 244km procession became something quite the opposite". 

There will be a lot of tired bodies after today's stage and it probably will mean the break has an even bigger chance of making it.. no one will want to chase like today, they'll be happy to let them go. So I'm definitely leaning towards the break again, we'll reassess should it look like they won't make it.

The prices have come out and it looks like the bookies are leaning slightly in favour of the GC guys, with Michael Woods the favourite at 11/2 (way too short, can't have it) and Simon Yates second fav at 13/2.. Tim Wellens is 10/1 and he's going to be carrying some of my money, as is Luis Leon, Bouwman, Stybar and Brambilla. The forecast is for a bit of rain again tomorrow, that will suit Wellens, and there's a bit of headwind on the way to the finish, which could hinder the break, but it will hopefully not make enough of a difference. 

I see that Battaglin has been backed from 10/1 in to 4/1 in a matter of minutes tonight, but unless the peloton pulls back the break, Battaglin won't be winning.. He probably won't go in the break as I said before, and if the break looks like they are going to be reeled in, he'll probably be a similar price to 4/1, you might even get bigger in play if the break gets a good lead. 

21.45 - adding Bert-Jan Lindeman at 400/1, LottoNL will be trying to get someone in the break, if Bouwman doesn't get there, Lindeman might try too.. at 400/1 he's worth a few pennies..

Recomendations

1pt win on Tim Wellens at 10/1 with 365 (now 12/1!)

0.5pts e/w on Luis Leon Sanchez at 22/1

0.25pts win on Koen Bouwman at 100/1

0.5pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 40/1

0.25pts win on Zdenek Stybar at 40/1

0.1pts e/w on Bert-Jan Lindeman at 400/1

Matchbets

Wellens to beat Battaglin - 2pts at 2/1

Woods to beat Formolo and Conti to beat Cattaneo - 2pts at 11/10

Add Konrad to beat Dennis to make it a treble - 2pts at 13/8

Stybar to beat Mohoric - 2.2pts at 8/11