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Published on Saturday, 13 May 2017 22:04

Giro d'Italia St 9

M. di Bisaccia – Blockhaus

Sunday 14th May, 139kms

Blockhaus.. an interesting name for an Italian climb, sounds like a German techno band.. Or a Swiss climb that has shifted south 900kms. Whatever about it's name, it's probably going to leave its mark on this Giro

Let's face it, this race had been pretty boring so far, up until today! Breaks with massive priced winners have won several stages and the sprints have been shared around amongst three different riders, with no one sprinter really looking much better than the others, they, and their teams have all made mistakes. Etna was a massive anti-climax with no GC candidate other than Zakarin prepared to have a go in to the headwind. As a result, the team classification is separated by just 30 seconds between UAE, Movistar and Cannondale. But Quintana's rivals, especially those not so hot on a TT bike, really need to start taking time, and need to start to put Quintana under pressure to test him and Movistar. 

Will we see some action on the climb? Will they be fighting it out for a stage win, or will they have let the break of the day steal the stage ahead of them? 

Well it was a crazy and exciting stage today - the best of the race so far in terms of action, it was flat out all day, from the 54kmph first hour of racing in trying to establish a break, to the later split which took 5 guys up the road, to the crazy finish which saw Conti crashing on the final bend of the race and Izagirre soloing to victory. It looked good for a while at the start when we had Muhlberger and Albanese in the break of the day, but Albanese was dropped as soon as they started the Cat 2 climb and Muhlberger, despite getting us excited for a while having made the final selection was dropped and let a potential e/w payout slip away. 

And Cannondale once again did nothing to help Woods, who managed to finish 5th - they didn't contribute once to the chase from what I could see, it was left up to Katusha, Quickstep and Lotto NL and they almost caught them, cutting a minute from the lead in the last 3kms to finish just 12" behind the winner. LL Sanchez didn't let his backers down who punted him from 25/1 to 13/1, going on the attack all day, but he had no answer for Izagirre's surge when he went. But he did pick up 18pts in the KOM comp to take him up to third in the table, although the stage win was his primary objective today.. Hopefully he keeps on the attack, picking up points, as he looked strong and smooth today. He's been cut to 8/1 though for the jersey. 

And poor old Valerio Conti, he was aggresive all day and he was the virtual Maglia Rosa at one point out on the road and a stage win was within his grasp before pedaling through the hairpin and sliding off.  

The Route

Starting in Montenero do Bisaccia for the first time, the stage is a short one at just 139kms, but it could be the day we finally start to see some order form in the GC with the severity of the climb up to the finish on Blockhaus. It's a wavy start to the stage as they head towards the coast in the first 18kms and the first intermediate sprint comes after just 18.9kms, meaning we will probably not see the break go until that is over and done with as Gaviria will probably want the points. 

From there the ride along the coast on almost totally flat roads for 65kms, where they will be buffeted by a 10mph crosswind coming from the north-east. After 75kms though they turn left inland and after 85kms they start on the little climb to Chieti, which isn't a KOM strangely, but a TV. They carry on heading in a south-west direction where the roads get narrower and quite worn and rough in parts, and climb the uncategorised pull up to Lettomanopello after 118kms. 

A short descent takes them to the bottom of the Blockhaus climb, which comes in two waves - the first, is an uncategorised pull up to Roccamorice which is 13kms at 3.5%, so nothing too steep, but long enough at 13kms. It could be where we see some GC men send satellite riders up the road for later assistance.

The second part is the official categorised part of the climb, which is 13.65kms at an average gradient of 8.4%. The first 3.5kms aren't too bad, averaging 'just' 6.9%, but the section from 10kms to go to 600m to go averages a much tougher 9.4%, with some steep parts between 6kms and 4kms to go that hit 11, 12 and up to 14% as it weaves its way through the hairpin bends. 

The climb tops out 500m to go where there is a slight dip in the road for 500m before a final kick up for 200m at 8%. If there is a small group of GC favourites comes to the last kilometre, diving through that last right-hander at the front with 200m to go could be the winning of the stage. 

Contenders and Favourites

The break were always a big favourite for the stage today and although the gaps ebbed and flowed and it looked like anything could happen for all of the last 100kms or so, they ultimately just held on. I don't think it will be the same tomorrow though and I don't give the break as much a chance of making it. Sure, they might build up a big lead on the flat run-in to the last 30kms, but I think there are too many teams who will want this to come back together in order for the break to make it. 

Nairo Quintana has a few choices he has to make with regards to how he rides tomorrow's stage.. Does he attack hard tomorrow to try to give himself a bit of a buffer ahead of the TT, so he can ride defensively for the last week? Does he keep his powder dry again tomorrow and try to just stay with his rivals before destroying them in the last week? It's a bit similar but in reverse for his rivals - do they try to take him on tomorrow to try to gain time ahead of the final week? To put him and Movistar under pressure and test how they are really going?

It's worth remembering that Rory Sutherland crashed a few days ago and has elbow problems, and Gorka Izagirre spent a lot of energy winning today's stage. But they still have a formidable lineup with Anacona, Rojas, Amador, Herrada and De La Parte, and we all know that Quintana is the best climber in the race by a mile on his best form.. just depends what he wants to do.. if he wants to go for the stage, they will work their socks off for him to take him to the last 3kms or so, and then he'll take off, if not, they'll sit back a little and let Quickstep and Sky control the pace. 

And similar to Movistar, it's hard to know what Sky will do tomorrow - do they let Thomas go for it, in order to try to gain some buffer before Quintana hits top gear? They tried to shake things up today, Landa attacking on the last climb caused a dilemma for Movistar and Bahrain as they had men up the road and chasing Landa risked helping pull them back. In the end he was pulled back pretty soon, but showed how good his legs are by still finishing 13th on the stage. What do they try tomorrow? I don't think Thomas will try attacking, I think he will be happy to just finish with the main group and then try to put time in to some of his rivals in the TT on Tuesday.

As for Landa? He might well try something again, I don't think he used too much energy today and he will like this climb. He needs to try to put time in to not only his rivals, but Thomas as well ahead of the TT, Thomas will take quite a bit of time out of him in the TT, I'd say at least 30". But can he get away from this quality field of similar levels of ability to his? It will be hard, he might find several will go with him, some of which might outsprint him at the finish. 

Thibaut Pinot is one of those guys, he showed again today how good he is in an uphill sprint of late, taking 3rd in the sprint behind Battaglin and Woods. FDJ are looking strong too and I expect Pinot to be up there at the front in the critical part of the race. He is a possible later attacker that could hold on, his attack to nail Contador in Andalucia in the dying strides was superb. He will also he happy enough to just sit on and be taken to a sprint, he knows he will beat most of these guys in a sprint. I think he has a big chance tomorrow, and is a good each-way shot at 8/1. 

Vincenzo Nibali showed well today too, finishing just one place behind Pinot in the sprint, and he too could attack late in the stage, when it eases off a little with 2.5kms to go. 9/1 though? I'm not sure about that, I'd rather be on some of the other candidates who can sprint at the finish if it comes to it.. And Nibali is a marked man in this race, he won't be let just slip away off the front like some others might.

Adam Yates was next home today after Nibali in 8th place. He is 14/1 and he could be the kind of guy that could slip away while the others look at each other, he has done this well in the past. Timing will be crucial as to when he goes though, if he goes too early he might be swallowed up before the finish again and will be cooked, if he goes too late others like Zakarin will be right on his wheel as it will be a big risk to let him go that late. He can sprint well too uphill from a small group as we saw in GP Industria when he won a 3-man sprint and when he won the sprint for 3rd in the 3rd stage of Catalunya. 

Ilnur Zakarin is the only one so far of the GC men to make a move and pull it off, attacking on Etna and pulling back 10" of the 24" he lost earlier in the race due to an untimely puncture. He is not afraid to attack for sure and it wouldn't surprise me to see him give it a go.. But he needs to get away solo or at least be lucky with who comes with him, as quite a few would outsprint him. 

Michael Woods will be interesting to watch - if he can still stay in there until the final sprint, if there is one, then he might have a chance. But that's the question - can he last all the way on a long, hard climb like this? He is good at short punchy climbs, but less experienced on bigger climbs. Also, he is poor at positioning and in flatter parts of races, he could be shuffled out of position in the 500m section just before the final kick. I don't think he will be in the top 3. 

Domenico Pozzovivo is riding ok, he sits in 5th in the GC and can take the Maglia Rosa with a big ride tomorrow, something that would go down well with the Italians ahead of the rest day, but I think 5th to 10th is probably where we'll see him, he could well move up in to the top 3 on GC though. Bauke Mollema and Steven Kruijswijk - it's time for them to try to make their mark too and steal some time, they will need to ahead of the final week.. But are they capable of it? I'm not sure - I hope they give it a go, I like them both, but it will be hard to get away and neither of them are great sprinters. 

If there is a bit of a stand-off and a stalling of the pace close to home we could see Rui Costa have a go, but the challenge to him will be hanging in there that long, he was dropped on Etna. He did say in an interview I saw ahead of today's stage that he was going to be stage hunting and the GC was a secondary concern for him, maybe he will try attacking tomorrow and trying to get away ahead of the final climb. 

So those are my thoughts on it should the break be reeled in.. which I think has a good chance of happening. I think Sky, FDJ and maybe even Bahrain Merida will be pushing hard in an attempt to isolate Quintana and set up their men for the closing stages of the climb. It will take a very strong break, or that they were left build up an enormous lead for the break to hang on.

But here's a quick look at some break possibles too just in case they do make it.. Joe Dombrowski has been riding pretty poor this race so far, he might have liked this final climb, but I think his problem will the 85kms before they start climbing, he is poor at rouleur riding and will struggle in the long flat roads before the final climb. I might leave him for a lumpier stage later in the race which is a more up and down day. Bart de Clercq could try getting up the road in the break for Lotto Soudal, he's not the worst climber and he would go well in the earlier parts too, he's a tempting price at 125/1. 

Georg Preidler has been riding ok too this week, he was 3rd in a stage in the Giro last year and won the Mountains classification in Romandie just recently. He got a boost from his compatriot Postlberger taking the first Maglia Rosa by an Austrian and he could be let go up the road tomorrow. He's 200/1. We went for Natnael Berhane today, he might be worth another shot at 250/1.. But they are tiny bets just in case, it's a total lottery again. 

So as for who wins this? I'm actually very close to a 'no bet' day. Quintana will probably pull away from them all in the last 3kms, it would be pretty demoralising for some of his rivals to lose 30-40 seconds to him in the first 'real' test of the race.. But then we thought Etna would be the first test of the race too and it was a damp squib..  and he's just 6/4.. at that price I'd rather be a layer than a backer, but I'm not brave enough to lay it either! Instead though I'm going to plump for Zakarin and Pinot - Zakarin for the late attack and Pinot to sprint to victory if Quintana's attacks are neutralised and it comes to a reduced group sprint.. 

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 9/1 with Paddy Power

0.75pts each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 16/1 with Skybet 

0.15pts each-way on Georg Preidler at 200/1

0.15pts each-way on Natnael Berhane at 250/1

0.15pts each-way on Bart de Clercq at 125/1 with Bet365

Matchbets:

 Pozzovivo to beat Formolo, Reichenbach to beat Dupont and Dumoulin to beat Jungels - 2pts at 15/8 with 365

Mollema to beat Kruijswijk - 2pts at 5/6