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Published on Thursday, 11 May 2017 21:30

Giro d'Italia St 7

Castrovillari – Alberobello

Friday 12th May, 224kms 

We cross across the top of the 'heel' of Italy, leaving Castovillari and skirting along the foot arch for 130kms before cutting inland and on to Alberobello, home of the unique Trullo buildings. 

This could be a pretty boring sprint stage ordinarily, but it could well be that we see some of the same chaos we saw on Sunday, as the wind if predicted to be pretty strong, whipping up to gales of around 35kmph. They will face a headwind for the first 20kms as they head to the coast and then it will be a cross-wind from their right hand side for all of the next 150kms, which should make for a very nervous day in the bunch. It might die off a little as they head inland from around the 140km mark, but it's not until about 40kms to go that they start heading north and finally get a tail-wind behind them, all the way to the finish. 

Stage 6 Wrapup

Well that was all a bit crap wasn't it. It was just another reminder today of just how difficult it has been to read races and pick winners lately. We all knew the break had a big chance, the teams were all talking about the break having a chance, and what do we get? Another small break of just five riders, TWO of which were from Trek. No Lotto Soudal after their DS saying yesterday they'd be trying, no Wilier Trestina despite their DS saying they were definitely getting a man in the break, no Cannondale guys, no Gazprom, who've been in the break every day, no FDJ, no AG2R..  

Instead, no one seemed interested in chasing either and the gap seemed to hover at 5 minutes forever. Cannondale tried chasing, but they might as well not have bothered, the time gap was actually going up while they were pulling. Wilier Trestina tried helping out, but didn't make much of an impression, but no one else was really interested until it was far, far too late. It they had cut a minute off the lead with 40kms to go instead of keeping it steady at 5 mins for 10kms it might have been a different story.

Up front, Mads Pedersen rode his legs off, but Stuyven wasn't able to reward his team-mate with victory, Dillier was just too strong. What price was Dillier? I don't know, but I'm sure he was at least 100/1, making it the 3rd three figure winner this week after Postlberger and Polanc. Behind, Rui Costa tried an attack inside the last kilometre but didn't get too far and the GC men all rolled in together. Rusty Woods annoyed me though by sprinting for 5th, I have my eye on him for an upcoming stage and all he did was bring attention to himself... Mollard finished with the main group, but was in 27th, none of the puncheurs really got involved with the top 3 places already filled. 

The Route

The stage head south for 20kms, then turns left and starts to skirt along the coastline in a north-easterly direction for 130kms, where they take a left hand turn and head inland away from the coast. As they head inland they pass the first intermediate sprint point at Massafra and the road starts to rise gently for the next 15kms (average of just 2.6%) where they pass the Cat 4 KOM point. Just 13.6kms later they pass the second intermediate sprint, which comes with 56.3kms to go. 

They head south-east for 17kms to Ceglie Messapica and do a u-turn before heading back north-west along the gently climbing road to Alberobello for the last 35kms. The run-in to the finish is a wavy corkscrew-shaped route as they circle around the town in a clock-wise circle with lots of sharp turns, narrow roads and roundabouts inside the final 5kms as you can see below.. After the final sharp right-hand turn with just 600m to go, the road rises gently to the line at a gentle 2% gradient.

That last right hander is going to be crucial, it is quite tight and sharp as you can see in the picture below, you will need to be in the first 10 through that bend I think to be in with a chance of winning the sprint. The 'Last kms Profile' you can see below is a bit deceptie, it looks kinda steep coming down to the last km and up to the line, but as you can see in the picture below, there's barely any gradient to worry about. It will be fast coming down the hill of course, but it's not a crazy fast descent or anything. 

Contenders and Favourites

Another day where the break has a *slim* chance of making it to the finish, it all depends on how hard they want to race with Sunday's stage to Blockhaus in their minds. The long flat section for over 100kms will be a killer though, there are lots of long, straight roads along the way where the prey will be in sight, even if 2-3 mins up the road, spurring on the chasers and demotivating the attackers. And just as they are starting to tire out front the peloton will be coming to life in order to try to reel them in ahead of the two intermediate sprints and the KOM prize that all come within 30kms of each other. So I think I give the break almost no chance to be honest. 

What we could see though is a second wave of attacks should the peloton start to ease back a little, say at the top of the Bosco Delle Pianella - a smart move would be for DDDs Omar Fraile and Sbaragli to have a word with maybe Trek's Nizzolo and one or two other teams and say "hey, let's go for the KOM and bring a few of the Points Jersey's guys with us, and we continue riding hard over the top".. There will be few teams that will chase them down ahead of the intermediate sprint and they might get a minute or two very quickly.. Ok, there's still 60kms to go, but the last 40kms will be a tail-wind which will help them, and if there are only a few teams behind to chase, they might have a small chance. 

But that's the long shot, what I would try and do, but I'm not sure the DS's will go for it! If it were to happen though, look for guys like Nizzolo, Sbaragli, Ponzi of CCC, Luis Leon Sanchez of Astana, Laurens de Plus of Quickstep to mark it, Joss van Emden of LottoNL, Enrico Gasparotto of Bahrain, Dylan Teuns of BMC and maybe Sean de Bie of Lotto Soudal. It gets a bit lumpy over the last 50kms, a bit like Flanders with a series of rolling hills and bumps, these guys might revel in it!

So, fantasy dreaming aside, it does look like it will come down to a bunch sprint, and it could all come down to who handles the last 3kms the best, and in particular, who handles the last right hander the best. They will all have to slow right down for that bend with 600m or so to go, it is not a bend that can be taken at speed, you might end up in the barriers on the far side, like we saw with the crash in the 4th stage of Pais Vasco, the infamous "Aupaaa, Aypaa" crash you can see below.. 

So, a strong leadout needs to take control with 3kms to go in order to get through the right-hander with 2,700m to go on to Via Capacelatra, with enough strong men at the front they can possibly keep control all the way to the last right-hander, it will be hard to pass on the narrow roads. But what you also need is someone explosive out of that final corner as last man before your sprinter, someone that can dive-bomb in to that bend and accelerate quickly away with their sprinter in tow. Get it right, there might be no-one come close to them again as they are strung out through the bend behind. Even better would be to have your sprinter in 2nd wheel with another team-mate in 3rd wheel who goes that little bit slower through the bend and holds up those behind him, leaving a gap. 

And that team could well be Quickstep - on paper they have the strongest leadout here, and they showed that with their impressive delivery of Fernando Gaviria in Wednesday's sprint. They need to maybe take a back seat for a bit longer than might be expected again like Wednesday and let Orica, Lotto Soudal and the others keep control in the last 10kms, but then take over with 3kms to go again. Jungels, Keisse, Serry, all men to be there at the front as they hit the last kilometre, then Richeze needs to take over coming in to the bend.. Gaviria 2nd wheel, one of the others in 3rd.. Boom - out of the corner Richeze explodes and Gav is 3 lengths clear.. Sounds too easy right?!

Well of course it's not going to be easy, no stages in the Giro are easy.. Caleb Ewan will tell you that. He too has a similar sort of leadout train to Gaviria, in that they have explosiveness with Luca Mezgec and possibly Alexander Edmonson too in order to whip him around that corner close to the front. CJJ can do the pulling in the lead-in to it. But they were all over the place on stage 5 and made a mess of the leadout, and I think QS have the edge in terms of experience and also aggressiveness.

Edmonson in particular is a young guy riding in only his first ever Grand Tour and it could get a bit hairy for him in the last kilometre. Mezgec isn't the rider he used to be either and is prone to messing up and getting in to crashes. But if Ewan can be put on Gaviria's wheel coming in to the last bend then he has a chance for sure with his explosiveness, Gaviria will have a fight on his hands.. it would have helped him a little more if it was a head-wind up the last 600m, but it looks like being a cross/tailwind that they'll have. 

The one I worry the most about is André Greipel - his leadout train isn't anything like as good as the OS and QS trains and he doesn't have anyone explosive enough to get him out of that corner fast enough - if they do manage to lead through the bend I think the other two trains could sweep past him with 500m to go and he could be left struggling to grab a wheel. Of course I might be wrong and he just takes over himself and finds the right wheel to follow through the last kilometre and his power might just get him there in the last 100m. But I'd definitely rate his chances below those of the two above, and he looked out of sorts today, dangling off the back a lot and he went pop early.

Sacha Modolo is one rider though who will love this closing circuit, he is great at tight, twisty finishes with the opportunity to dive-bomb up the inside, or outside on tight corners. And who better to lead you through the final bend in kamikaze fashion other than Roberto Ferrari, Mr. Suicide Sprinter himself. He showed on stage 2 that he had good legs, getting up for 2nd, if there is a bit of confusion and disorganisation in the last kilometre, Ferrari and Modolo could be two to take advantage.

Giacomo Nizzolo has been a major disappointment so far in the race, it looks like the decision to bring him back to the Giro so soon might have been a bad idea.. He has really struggled on some stages and he looks like one to avoid again in this fast finish. 

Sam Bennett.. How close did he come to landing his first Grand Tour win on Wednesday, he almost did it, it was a superb result coming from where he was on Sunday. His stats Wednesday were very impressive, he hit 68kmph in the sprint and hit a max of 1,352 watts, versus a top speed for Gaviria of 66.7kmph and max watts of 1,339.. but what was even more promising for Bennett's future chances was the fact that he said after that he can produce 200 watts more maximum.. if he continues to recover and improve, those sorts of numbers will land him a stage yet. 

He's not averse to a bit of risk-taking and he knows that his chances of victory in a Grand Tour this year had almost disappeared down the toilet (sorry) - he will be desperate to improve on that 3rd place here. The main issue for him might be the leadout, Konrad will be good, but his 'explosive' sprinter he needs for out of that bend, Pelucchi, crashed on Tuesday's stage to Etna and ended the stage looking pretty sorry for himself with a half a jersey. But they did a pretty good job last time to get him to the last 200m in front, and if Bennett can get through that bend surfing wheels in 3rd to 6th place, he might have a chance of challenging for the win.  

Again, Kristian Sbaragli, Ryan Gibbons, Phil Bauhaus, Jakub Mareczko and the other guys who have been filling the top 10 places will be there or thereabouts too, but I can't see any of them winning I think. The bookies have literally almost said "we haven't a clue either, take your pick!" as they have gone 9/4 for each of Ewan, Gaviria and Greipel, with 365 going slightly more in favour of Ewan with prices of 15/8, 2/1 and 3/1 respectively. Sam Bennett is 8/1 with WillHill and that's not a bad bet with the power coming back, but I think this will be all about the leadouts and that acceleration out of the final bend and to me Gaviria is the man. 

Recommendations

2pts win on Fernando Gaviria at 9/4 with Will Hill

1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 8/1 with Will Hill

Matchbets

Gaviria to beat Greipel, Bennett to beat Mareczko, Gibbons to beat Savitskiy - 2pts at 2/1