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Published on Monday, 22 May 2017 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 17

Tirano to Canazei

Wed. 24th May, 219kms 

A day that screams out breakaway, it has the perfect start for it with the climb of Aprica which comes after just 2.9kms to help the climbers get away and the Passo del Tonale will help them extend the lead as the peloton downs tools for the day. 

Once again I find myself starting to write a review of what happened in the last stage and wondering where on earth to start... What a completely bonkers day again in the Giro, there was so much going on it was hard to keep up again. A massive break went, we had Dombrowski and Grosschartner in it, but Sky had three men with Kiryienka and Landa clearly plotting a big move by Landa. Luis Leon and Fraille were not in the orginal break of 22 riders or so, but bridged on the way up the Mortirolo and Sanchez immediately went to the front and pulled more or less the whole way up, almost in a silent tribute to his friend Michele Scarponi.

And then there was a moment of sheer class from Landa and Fraille, where they agreed to let Sanchez take the Michele Scarponi prize, not contesting the points with him. That was not an insignificant gesture, as there were 70pts up for grabs, let's hope it doesn't cost Fraille the jersey at the end of the race. 

On the Stelvio, Landa attacked to take the Cima Coppi, Luis Leon didn't contest it, and then seemed to roll home at his own pace to save his legs, job done for the day. He's now 2nd in the KOM standings, 16pts behind Landa, who took max points on the Umbrailpass as well as the Stelvio, but 23pts clear of Fraille in 3rd. It's all to play for with it, could be decided by who gets in what breaks going forward, and all depends on whether Landa is going to ride for the jersey, or ride for stages, seeing as he came so close today. 

And as for the major story of the day, it was incredible what happened to Dumoulin - but as we all know, if you gotta go, you gotta go, and a dodgy tummy that is rumbling and gurgling and on the verge of exploding is a horrible feeling and there is only two choices really.. Stop and poop, or keep riding and poop.. and 9 out of 10 of us will choose the former. As for whether they should have stopped or not? I don't think so.. The race was most definitely on in the most important part of the stage, and if they had waited for him to get back in it would have effectively neutralised almost half the climb, handing the advantage back to Dumoulin. As it was, I don't think Nairo wanted to take advantage of the situation and I think he was really torn by what was going on. He never really attacked, but the speed at which he bridged to Nibali when he did attack suggests to me he had really good legs. It was Zakarin first, and then Bahrain Merida who pushed on, Movistar just kept a steady pace. 

In the end, Nibali, annoyingly got the first Italian win of the race, I thought he'd be the best of the GC men once they came over the top, I just didn't think he would win.. And I really actually think that Quintana would have won today had he not decided to not attack the Pink Jersey. Landa was unlucky, but he was out on his feet, Quintana wasn't far off at all, and Davide Formolo was a brilliant 6th behind an impressive looking Pozzovivo and a poorly-descending Zakarin. 

So the GC has been thrown wide open again, with Nairo now just 31" behind Dumoulin, and Nibali has come up on the rails to take 3rd in the GC off of Pinot. He now sits just 1'12" off of Dumoulin's lead and is legitimately a serious contender for the win now. Yates and Formolo move up to 10th and 11th, hopefully Formolo can go a step better and finish in the top 10 for us. He's looking in good shape to take a podium at worst in the White Jersey competition, it's all very tight with him and Yates and Jungels, there's only 2'42" between the three of them.

As for tomorrow's stage, what with the brutally hard day they all had today and knowing what is coming for the rest of the week, the GC teams will be happy to let a large group of 15-20 riders go up the road and take it easy for the day. And the break are likely to fight it out over the uphill drag to Canazei for the last 30kms.  

The Route

They start in Tirano and almost as soon as they leave the town they start climbing the Aprica after just 2.9kms, a Cat 2 climb of 12.3kms at 6.3%, and after 30kms they start on another Cat 2 climb, the Passo del Tonale, which is officially just 11kms at 5.7%, but they are climbing for 30kms in total. A long descent of nearly 70kms then takes the peloton across the Val di Sole, all the way to San Michele alla'Aldige where they start on the 3rd climb of the day to Giovo, a Cat 3 climb that is 8.1kms at 5.7%. 

After that the route undulates and rolls for the last 82kms all the way to the finish in Canazei which has already been a stage town three times. The route climbs slightly in the last 27kms - it looks steeper than it is on the profile, it averages just 1.6% for those last 27kms. The roads are wide and well-surfaced though but  I'm  not sure it will matter a great deal as I don't expect it to be a peloton racing through them. There is a slight drag up for the last kilometre, but the last 500m are slightly downhill  on a 450m finishing straight.

Contenders

To come.. 

I think the break will make it today, so concentrating my picks on those who might get in the break, with a short look at possible GC winners later on. I don't think there is much point in going in to too much detail on each pick, there are some guys in there I've picked already, we know their strengths and style etc, so a few lines on each is enough I think.

I think the best place to start too is avoiding most of those who got in the break today, as that was a pretty hard day today to say the least.. 

Rui Costa was in the break, but I don't know if he really had such a hard day, he was at the back all the time and just seemed to be looking after himself a bit.. He might fancy this sort of route, the last 30kms would suit him perfectly. 12/1 though? I think I'll wait until I see who's in the break and maybe have a go then. 

Luis Leon Sanchez worked hard for the Mortirolo prize, and on the Stelvio to get the 3rd place points, but then sat up and took it easy for the rest of the stage, rolling home almost 35 mins down. He may well have decided he was not going to be strong enough to take the points on the Umbrail pass and he might have been thinking about tomorrow already. With two Cat 2 climbs early on, Landa may not get in the break and he could well take the jersey off of him. The bookies have made him the 13/2 favourite though, and that's a bit short for me.. 

Valerio Conti is over an hour back, so no problem there with being let go. He was very unlucky on the hill to Peschici in stage 8, he seemed to be riding well enough, but would he have been able to match Izagirre's kick when he went? I'm not sure, but either way, he will still be desperate to make amends for that mistake and could well be involved in the finish here. 

Enrico Battaglin is one of my favourites for this stage though, I think he can win from the two possible scenarios - he can get in the break, and would be one of the better sprinters at the finish, we saw that when he outsprinted Michael Woods on stage 8 behind Izagirre, and in fact he has been riding well all race. And if he doesn't manage to get in the break, there is a chance he can win from the peloton if it comes back together. 14/1 is shorter than what I was expecting, but we get no fancy prices anymore for any rider, and I'm just going to take that anyway I think.. 

Giovanni Visconti is another perfectly suited to tomorrow's stage, and he kind of got the day off today, working a little early on but then rolled home more than a half an hour down. He too has been one of the most active in this race, finishing 2nd to Izagirre on stage 8 and almost catching Fraille's group on stage 11, finishing 5th. With Nibali having won the stage today Bahrian Merida will be buzzing and some of the pressure is off, but he's now firmly in the hunt for the GC.. so there is a small possibility that team orders say he isn't allowed to go.. So I'm not going to back him pre-race, if he gets in the break I might have a nibble. 

Jasper Stuyven at 22/1 is another interesting one, if he can get in the break he'd have a good chance with this finish, he has a 2nd, two 3rds, a 5th, a 7th and two 9ths so far this Giro and came very close to winning when he was outsprinted by Silvan Dillier on stage 6. But this finish is right up his street, the drag up to the 500m to go sign could see him attack and stretch the rest of the break. He's only 12/1 with PP, so the 22/1 with 365 is worth a nibble. 

Rudy Molard has been pretty active too, getting in a few breaks without succes, but with Pinot's GC chances sliding, FDJ may well start to put all their eggs in to a stage wins basket. A man who finished 17th in LBL is going to be right at home on this road, he could be worth a shot at 33/1.

Enrico Gasparotto at 50/1 could also go up the road for Bahrain Merida, and Dylan Teuns also at 50/1 is a likely attacker for BMC, who are also stage hunting now that Hermans has gone home and Tejay is out of contention. And what about any of the sprinters? Can Gaviria, Bennett or Modolo hang in there? Sacha Modolo went on the attack today in the break, but was gone as soon as the road went uphill.. But he might have been just testing the legs for tomorroa..

If UAE can get Costa or someone else in the break too, they might just be able to shepherd him over the early climbs, when maybe the pace won't be lightning fast, as they come so early in the stage.. He finished 10th in Gent Wevelgem and 6th in Flanders, we know he can get over smaller hills, but 11-12km climbs is a different matter.. But he's 150/1 with Bet365 and only 22/1 with PP, so at 150/1 he's a lottery ticket shot.

And there are just so many other guys.. Pelle Bilbao, Jose Goncalves, Jan Polanc, Silvan Dillier, Matteo Busato, JJ Van Rensberg and loads more can get in the break. and you know, I said earlier that I might mention a few GC men, but I don't think I'll bother, it's hard to pick who of the GC men could win the sprint, maybe Patrick Konrad, but I think the break will make it and am happy to just scatter a few break bets around. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 14/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Sacha Modolo at 150/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Rudy Molard at 33/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Jasper Stuyven at 22/1 

Matchbets

Konrad to beat Cataldo - 2pts at 4/6

Conti to beat Rosa - 2pts at evens with 365