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Published on Saturday, 20 May 2017 00:12

Giro d'Italia St.15

Valdengo to Bergamo

Sunday 21st May, 199kms

The mini Giro di Lombardia stage, with a visit to the hills over Bergamo that takes in the Selvino climb where Esteban Chaves made his attack last year and the Bergamo Alta which often plays a part in the race. 

This should be a great finish to this stage.. There are 150kms of boring flat roads to have to endure first though, before the race will explode in to life in the last 50kms. The two categorised climbs will thin things out, the descent off the Selvino and the Bergamo Alta will decide the winner. With slopes of 10% for 500m, and the top coming just 3kms from the finish, it's possible we see a strong puncheur or two get away and hold it all the way to the line. 

Stage 14 Wrapup

A battle for over 30kms at average speeds of over 54kmph, but no decent-sized break was able to get away. In the end Lagutin, Martinez and Berhane managed to slip the net, but never got more than about 2'15" as FDJ and Cabel Ooan of Orica kept a high tempo. It was interesting for half an hour, then boring for 80kms, before coming to life again. It was bizarre to see Ewan pulling at the front for about 40kms, he was getting all his frustrations out before stepping off to go home tonight. 

And what a finale we had.. what a performance from Dumoulin.. Astonishing to see him come from being dropped to bridge up to Quintana and then outsprint them all at the end to win the stage.. a monumental performance that saw him finish just 30" behind Pantani's drug-fueled record time and did the climb at 6.7 W/kg.. Zakarin looked superb as well, almost winning the stage, a strong improvement from his performance on Blockhaus. And Mikel Landa landed the each-way for us at least with a decent 3rd place, he was on the limit, but held on for 3rd.

As for for Nairo, what can we make of that.. not good enough.. he went on the hard part and he put himself in to the red too early and could not stretch away enough to prevent the others from coming back at him. Nibali cracked, Yates cracked, Pinot cracked.. but they recovered and paced themselves to not lose too much time, Kruisjwijk was just behind them and Kangert did very well to take a top 10. Mollema crackd badly though and lost 1'44" and has slipped from 3rd to 6th. Costa and Polanc rode well to finish 16th and 17th and keep their top 10 hopes alive. 

The Route

The stage starts in Valdengo, which was also a stage start town in 2014. The route covers 150 km on perfectly flat roads with the typical obstacles of all urban areas - roundabouts, traffic dividers, etc. After Zogno the route takes in two categorised climbs: first the Cat 2 Miragolo San Salvatore (8.9kms at 7%) and after a very fast and tricky 5km descent they start on the Selvino, a climb very familiar to those who have done Lombardia. It's a Cat 3 climb of 6.9kms at 5.4% and was a  KOM in the 1995 Giro which was won by Tony Rominger.  

After Selvino, there is a long descent with a number of hairpins for 12kms and it takes them towards the suburbs of Bergamo. After 10kms of gently sloping roads they arrive at the Bergamo Alta, which could well decide the outcome of the race. The road  runs across the upper city (Bergamo Alta), climbing up to reach Porta Garibaldi and then Largo Aperto (covering 200 metres on pebble paving). In the first sector, gradients never fall below 10% (with a maximum of 12%). With 1,800 m to the finish, a sharp bend and a sector on narrowed roadway lead through Porta Sant’Agostino.

The road takes a sharp turn to the left after the flamme rouge, then a straight for 700m, then a sharp right turn with just 250m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

This will be an interesting stage.. it's the day before a rest day so a lot of guys won't be holding back, some might be planning on going home on the rest day, so will give it their all. And as tough as the climb was up to Oropa, most of the peloton had a rest day today after things settled down after 30kms. 

Again though it's a long run in to the action, although the 150kms they traverse on the way towards the climbs are a lot more undulating and uneven than today's pan-flat run along the Po valley. But it should all kick off on the two climbs, there's only 50kms to go when they start climbing and less then 30kms to go from the top of the Selvino, of which around 20kms are descending, so if a small break gets away over the Selvino, they may well hold on to the finish, the GC guys may not have much interest in this stage. 

The bookies have priced it up as such, with breakaway candidates filling the top of the betting. Luis Leon Sanchez is the 8/1 favourite, a very short price I think. Yes, he's going ok but 8/1 is not great value considering how competitive tomorrow's stage is going to be, plus he's only ever done Lombardia once, in 2014 and he didn't finish. Instead I'd much rather be on Rui Costa again, at least he has form in Lombardia, after finishing 3rd here in 2014 and 15th last year. He showed again today he has great legs, he wasn't that far off the top GC guys. I think he will go on the attack on the Selvino or before it, get a decent group with him and will attack again on that final climb up the Bergamo Alto. 

Giovanni Visconti is another who could be prominent in the attacks, he has finished 4th, 7th, 9th and 14th in Lombardia and is riding very well at the moment too, he has almost won two stages so far. 12/1 is just about acceptable though. Ben Hermans is just 14/1 and he rode far better than I expected today, finishing in 14th place, and he also rode very well to Bagno di Romagna when they almost caught Omar Fraile. But 14/1? Very short for me. 

Thibaut Pinot finished 3rd in Lombardia in 2015 coming home on his own 32" behind Nibali, but I'm not sure tomorrow's going to be a GC day so I'm going to pass on him. Mikel Landa is just 16/1, but I think he might now try to recover and save himself for the last week when he could take a stage win, He said after today's stage that he is still riding with a bit of pain, but he was really looking forward to the rest day as he hoped to come back at 100% after it. 

Omar Fraile is sure to be involved in the break that tries to get away on the first climb, I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Dimension Data contribute to the pace to bring back the original break before the climb, as there are KOM points up for grabs, and it could be a good day to pick up a handy 22pts to go back in to the lead of the KOM competition, Dumoulin took it off him today. And if he can ride like he did in the finale to stage 9 then he has a big chance again. 

Matteo Montaguti has disappointed too often now, Pierre Rolland will probably try, but won't win, but one I like at a decent price is Diego Rosa at 28/1.. He did a little probing attack today as a tester for Landa, but took it easy after that.. He has one of the best records of all the runners here in Lombardia, having finished 2nd in 2016 and 5th in 2015 and I think he will be given the green light to ride his race tomorrow and could well be invovled in the shake-up. 

Vincenzo Nibali has of course the best record of all those present, having won this race in 201 with a scintillating attack - the finish suits him, but he will not be given much rope seeing as he sits in just 4th in the GC. Laurens de Plus is another who has shown good legs in the last few days, attacking a lot on stage 11 and taking 10th, he could go up the road again. 

Another who I have my eye on though is Davide Villela of Cannondale, who hails from the area and trains on these roads. He also finished 5th in Lombardia last year and he has surely been saving himself for this stage and will be going all guns blazing for it. At 60/1 with WillHill he's worth a bet, even the 50/1 with others is good enough. 

Enrico Battaglin, Matteo Busato, Alexander Foliforov, Paolo Tiralongo and Pelle Bilbao are also some who could go well and could be involved in the finish, Battaglin in particular could well hang in there and sprint to victory. 

It's another impossible stage to predict, but I like my picks below, hopefully some of them are involved and will get us a result. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Diego Rosa at 28/1 with 365

0.75pts each-way on Rui Costa at 10/1

0.25pts each-way on Davide Villela at 60/1 with WillHill

0.5pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 12/1 with 365 

Matchbets:

Sanchez to beat Woods & Costa to beat Hermans - 2pts at 1.4/1 with 365

De Plus to beat Petilli - 2pts at 5/6