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Published on Saturday, 13 May 2017 21:50

Giro d'Italia St 12

Forlì to Reggio Emilia

Thurs 18th May, 237kms

The longest stage of the race at 237kms, racing through Italian food heartland and finishing in the beautiful town of Reggio Emilia, mid-way between Parma and Bologna. 

What a stage we had to day then. It's almost impossible to sum up everything that happened, it was all-out war from the very start today and it never stopped all the way to the finish. From the start the pace was furious, so much so that the break were only dangling 20" or so ahead of the pack for a long time, who were going so fast you could barely call them a peloton any more, as there were only about 40 riders left in there, with 126kms still to go.

The break was all over the place, we had Costa and Montaguti in there, but strangely LuLu failed to make it in. It was so all over the place that Omar Fraile and Landa attacked and pulled nicely clear, Landa seemingly riding well and Fraile in cruise control. They led until the final climb, but along the way Fraile took maximum points as Landa just let him roll through to take them, maybe a sign that Landa knew he hadn't much in the legs and didn't want to wind Fraile up, the Basques must have struck a deal. 

It all came back together, Rui Costa attacked and caught Rolland and Fraile who had gone again, and I thought we were on to a winner, as did the in-play market, he traded to odds-on. But in a brilliantly exciting finale, the chasers came at them in the last 200m and Fraile pulled a Costa on Costa and landed an incredible stage win. Incredible that he was out there all day, incredible that he took all the KOM points and incredible he still had the strength to pull off that finish despite attacking late on too. I gave him the big talk-up, I said 22/1 was tempting, but typically, I didn't back him... I hope some of you did..

Gutted for Costa, even more so that I picked him win only (you guys know I almost never do that) - I was sure that if he came to the finish in a small group he'd win. At least he hoovered up enough KOM points to go joint top in the competition with Polanc on 44pts, he's certainly signalled his intentions now. The matchbet double landed to save us, a small 1pt loss on the day, but it could have been a nice winner with Costa. Disappointing that Montaguti was not able to hang on, he just doesn't look like he has the strength for these Grand Tour stages after all. 

Behind the GC battle was equally exciting, with Dumoulin seemingly isolated and Movistar with a gaggle of riders around Quintana and three men up front.. surely the platform for an attack to test TomDum? No... he's no Alberto Contador.. he'd certainly have tried something.. Instead, Vincenzo Nibali tried a few times, Thibaut Pinot attacked hard at the top of the last climb, gaining 10", but that was maybe to give himself some breathing space for on the descent, rather than any real conviction that he could stay away from the other guys. 

Geraint Thomas felt the effects of his crash more today, he was dropped on the final climb along with Kruijswijk, they lost 48" in the end. Tanel Kangert moved in to the top 10 thanks to being in the break, Andrey Amador also benefitted, moving up to 6th place overall from 9th, he could have a very realistic chance of staying in the top 10 or maybe even 6 now. 

Not a lot to say about this stage, a few early climbs will see the break get away, possibly the KOM hunters again, as there are 22pts on offer.. or they may just decide to take a day off and save the legs for the bigger days to come.. Either way, with 120kms still to go there is a slim chance the break is going to make it, so we're looking at another showdown between the sprinters, the first one since last Friday. 

The Route

The stage starts from Forlì, a town stage in the Giro for the nineteenth time, and is mostly flat, although they more or less start climbing right from the start until the top of the first climb of the day, the Cat 2 Colla di Casaglia which tops out after 63kms. A 16km descent, a 20km slight uphill run and they start on the Cat 3  Valico Appenninico, which they crest after 110kms and spend the next 120kms descending or on flat roads. After the feed zone at Lago di Bilancino, the route takes the A1 motorway passing through a series of well-lit tunnels.

After leaving the motorway and clearing the intermediate sprint in Sasso Marconi, the route flattens out on wide and straight roads with series of roundabouts, and cuts across a number of densely inhabited areas (especially Modena). The final kilometres to Reggio Emilia (fifth time a Giro finish town) are on wide and well-surfaced roads, with roundabouts, traffic dividers, pedestrian islands being the main obstacles.

As they pass the 3kms to go marker they go over some railway lines, right, but they shouldn't cause any problems as they are hitting them perpindicularly. With just under 2kms to go they sweep right on to the big, wide Viale Piave and go dead straight for about 800m, then a slight left and another straight and wide road.

The final left sweeping bend in to the home straight is on a slight camber, it will be extremely fast, but there's plenty of room for everyong..  The home straight is 350-m long, on a 7m wide road.

Contenders and Favourites

So Caleb Ewan finally got his victory after several days of issues and close calls, pipping Gaviria and Bennett in a thrilling finish on stage 7. I thought it would be QuickStep would sort it for Gaviria in the leadout, instead, they were all over the place and it was Orica who proved the best. Luca Mezgec was excellent for him in the finale and Ewan was just too fast, cutting the last corner on the ultimate line, whereas Bennett and Gaviria had less than optimal lines through the final bend. 

Caleb certainly took it easy in the TT, he finished dead last, almost 13 mins down (of the official finishers, poor Matteo Pelucchi was elminated for being OTL).. Most of his leadout took it pretty easy too, Michael Hepburn and Yates of course were going for it, as a specialist TT'er and a GC candidate, but Ruben Plaza also did a pretty good time. So he'll have a fresh leadout, the run-is pretty uncomplicated and perfect for a long lead-out and he has the speed to finish it off on a long straight road like this. He did finish almost last today though, 5 mins behind the group that contained Gaviria, Bennett and Greipel, so either he was taking it ultra easy, or he really suffered. 

Fernando Gaviria and QuickStep made a bit of a mess in a couple of sprints now, especially in the last sprint on stage 7 when Gav had to more or less battle his way through the final 500m or so on his own. He finished extremely fast though and if the stage was 20m longer he'd have probably won. With an uncomplicated and fast run-in like this though, you'd expect QS to make a better job of their leadout and with a dead straight finish, Gav can use his explosive speed to get his nose in front, if dropped off at just the right time by Richeze.

Is his top speed as fast as Caleb's top speed in a straight-forward sprint though? That is what some are still debating, it does look like it could go either way each time they meet, but something very important to bear in mind is that he came down in the TT and took a blow to his left thigh (right). He has tweeted that he's ok though and has vowed to continue to "fight for cyclamen", but something to bear in mind, it might take a few watts off his top power. 

And speaking of watts, as I said in my last sprint preview, Sam Bennett put out more watts than Gaviria in the sprint in stage 5, despite the fact that Gaviria won. It just goes to show that you don't have to be the most powerful guy, just the canniest in a sprint like that. He also said, as I mentioned in the last sprint preview, that he is still 200w off his top power. With basically three rest days under his belt now though, Bennett could well be starting to fire on all cyclinders.

Bora are down Pelucchi now, but I'm not sure he added anything anyways as he was injured, but Konrad, Postlberger and Selig will be a good leadout for him. As we saw in Paris-Nice, he can beat the best in the world in a long, straight sprint, and he was unlucky in stage 5 I think, a touch of inexperience and nerves made him jump too soon and he just ran out of gas. If they can hold it a bit longer, maybe tucked in behind Orica or LottoSoudal, then he could go very close to winning this I think. 

André Greipel was one I said I was worried about in the last sprint, his leadout is very disappointing in this race and he doesn't like the helter-skelter of a finish like that too much. In fact he complained afterwards that the organisers were putting them in danger with a finish like that, but he seemed to be the only one who felt that way, the rest just got on with it. No such problems here though, there's just a series of three easy bends on very wide roads in the last 2kms and a 350m straight for the sprint.

We know he can beast it on straight sprints like this, we saw that in stage 2 with his win, but so far he has finished outside the places in two other sprints and 3rd in the 4th one. He may well turn on the power again tomorrow and leave them all in his enormous wake, but that could be his problem.. there are several guys will want to be in that enormous wake, ready to pop out in the last 100m and pass him. 

Sacha Modolo continues to be hit and miss in this race, he was fancied by some for the last sprint in light of the tricky finish, I even gave him a chance. As they hit the last 2kms you would have been getting a bit excited as several UAE Emirates riders started appearing near the front, but just as soon as they did, they disappeared. He ended up in 14th, a very disappointing result. It's been a very disappointing race for Modolo in general, who was one of the favourites for the points jersey, but not as disappointing as Nizzolo who has gone home already. 

Jakub Marezcko hurt himself in a crash and was suffering so much today the Willier DS asked six of the team to wait for him to ensure he made the time cut. Amezqueta wasn't happy and was seen arguing with his DS, but the DS got his way and they came home together 31 minutes down. I can't see him recovering in time to feature here. 

Ryan Gibbons has been a revelation here, finishing in the top 8 in four out of the five sprints so far. He is sure to go well again, and DDD will be on a high after their win with Fraille today, the pressure is off now too. He's just a level behind the top four here though, but is capable of a top ten again I think. 

Jasper Stuyven could try sprinting again, I don't think he has given up on the jersey yet, he might pick up points in the next week where Gaviria will not have a chance. But he won't beat the top four guys unless he tries a late powerful attack that manages to stay away. 

Enrico Battaglin has finished 7th, 6th and 4th in stages so far in this race, but the best result he got was on that uphill sprint after Izagirre had won stage 8, he won the uphill sprint in the peloton. This flat sprint won't suit him as much. 

Bet365 had priced it up as a coin toss basically between Ewan and Gaviria, both were just 7/4. Greipel was 3/1 and Bennett 9/2. Since they opened, Gaviria has been cut to 13/8 and Ewan eased to 15/8.. I was thinking Ewan was the better bet for this, but his position in the stage today worries me. A long stage like this one after a tough stage yesterday could take the pep out of Ewan's step.

Gaviria on the other hand has probably got the best leadout and as we know with Milan San Remo, can handle long stages just fine, but he did take that bang in the TT. Greipel and Bennett will be fighting for a podium too, but it is really hard to call it, one momentary lapse in concentration from any of the teams could change the outcome of the stage. I really can't call it because of the doubts about the top two, but I think Bennett at 9/2 will give us a good run for our money and if it really clicks with him he could win this. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 9/2  

Matchbets

Gibbons to beat Stuyven - 2pts at 13/8 with 365

Bennett to beat Ewan - 2pts at 13/8 with Will Hill

Modolo to beat Mareczko - 3pts at 5/6 with Will Hill