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Published on Wednesday, 29 May 2019 19:32

Giro d'Italia St 18

Valdaora - Santa Maria di Sala

Thursday 30th May, 222kms 

After two tough days of climbing the riders will be glad to hear that this stage is almost totally downhill! Bar a couple of bumps they are basically descending from the 30km mark, all the way to the finish, 190kms later!

A much-needed 'rest' day for the peloton with the last two stages in their legs and with the climax of this race still to come in the days ahead. But will it be a day for the break to make it all the way as the GC teams rest their legs, or will we see the sprinters teams, for the sprinters that are still left, work to make it a sprint at the end of the day? It is the last chance for the sprinters after all.  

Stage 17 Review

A small break tried to get away with just 5 riders at first, none of which were our guys and it wasn't a very good break. But then more riders started to come across, and Bob Jungels started to bridge too with Davide Formolo and Gianluca Brambilla, two of our men, and I had almost picked Jungels too.. had actually typed out his name in the recommendations, but then decided to remove him at the last minute. 

Ineos had missed the break and chased for a while with Movistar, keeping the lead around 40", but suddenly they let them go and the lead ballooned up to over 7 minutes with 70kms to go. Formolo was trading at 6/4 favourite, with Masnada and Kangert next at 6/1.. Then Jan Bakelants went on the attack on the Cat 4 climb and built up a lead of just over a minute and he too traded in to a price of 6/1, and with 50kms to go the break still held a lead of 6'38". 

Heading in to the last climb, things were looking very good indeed. Formolo was trading at evens favourire and Brambilla was 4/1 3rd favourite behind Masnada. But then Nans Peters attacked and they all just let him go. I think they didn't treat him with the respect he deserved, they probably thought "don't know who that is, but let him go, we'll catch him on the final climb". Only they didn't catch him. He quickly gained a minute, the break started to disintigrate, with Chaves, Neilands and Conti attacking away. Formolo eventually got in to gear, but it was too late. 

Chaves rode away from Neilands and Conti to take 2nd, Formolo nipped up to take 3rd on the day, but a very disappointing outcome from where we were with 15kms to go. In the GC group, Lopez attacked, pulled a bit at the front, promptly pulled off and went straight out the back.. bizarre riding from him. He did get back on to the main group of favourites again though, but when I say main favourites, that didn't include Mikel Landa who was up the road.

Landa was superb again, dancing away from the peloton and blowing it to pieces. Hugh Carthy tried to stay with him for a while, but was quickly burnt off his wheel, Landa eventually taking 19" more out of Roglic and Nibali. Lopez came back to the front of the pack and attacked, with Carapaz on his wheel.

Nibali looked to be struggling at the back as Pozzovivo pulled, Roglic couldn't come through either and Carapaz added another 7" to his lead with his enterprising attack. The race is looking more and more like it's going the way of the Movistar man, and the way Landa is riding we might just get the podium place out of him too. 

The Route

A climb right from the flag drop for 30kms, but it's a nothing hill really, averaging just 1.3%. From the top, they start an enormous descent that lasts most of the day, bar a few little bumps along the way. With 114kms gone they go over the Pieve di Alpago, a Cat 4 climb just 4kms long, and bar a few other small bumps in the next 40kms it's downhill all the way to the flat last 40kms. 

The roads in the finale are wide and dead straight, with just a sharp left-hander with just under 2kms to go to contend with. 

Contenders

It could be a day for the sprinters, it should be a day for the sprinters, but with Arnaud Démare and Pascal Ackermann the only proper sprinters left in the race, who's going to chase the break? For the breakers/rouleurs it's one of the last chances they have as the next two stages are pretty tough mountain stages and Sunday is a TT.

So I expect a big battle for the break today among the strong guys of the peloton and we could see a decent break of some 10-20 guys go up the road. With lots of teams represented, then there is a chance of them not being brought back, as there will be even less teams willing to chase the break.   

But what if one of either Ackermann or Démare actually realise this might happen and try to get in the break? The likes of Benedetti, Schwarzmann or Selig could try to get in to it with Ackers to help him, someone like Ludvigsson, Guarnieri or Scotson could for Démare - Démare actually tried to get in the break of the day today to snaffle the early intermediate points, but unlike Jungels and Formolo he couldn't bridge.. If either of them get in, then it's game over for the others in the break, unless they manage to shake them off on the one or two little lumps on the stage. 

Back to break picks then. Expect the Italian Pro-Conti teams to be involved, could be their last chance to take a stage win. Androni will be keen to get a few men in it, Manuel Belletti is one of the 'best of the rest' here, in that he is ranked the 8th best sprinter who started this Giro according to PCS, but 5 of those above him have gone home. Will he risk trying to get in the break, or sit in hoping it comes to a sprint and he can have a crack at it? He has finished 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th in sprints so he should now be challenging for that 3rd podium spot realistically. 

The other guys who should and could go are Francesco Gavazzi and Andrea Vendrame. Gavazzi has been in a good number of breaks but has found the hills too tough at times, this could be more up his street and might fancy another go. Andrea Vendrame has two wins to his name this year, in the Tro Bro Leon, winning a sprint from a break, and a sprint in a stage of the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe. He also has a 2nd in the Tour du Finestre and 3rd in the GP Industria & Artigianato, winning the sprint for the first group home after Cattaneo and Schwarzmann had fought out the win.

I had started writing this this morning before today's stage started, and lo and behold, Vendrame was in the break. He might try again though today, if the legs are good, he might try again on a stage that probably suits him more. 

Bardiani will also be desperate to get some men in the break, they are way behind in terms of success rate compared to Androni, they've barely been seen all Giro. Paolo Simion was 7th on stage 5, but didn't really feature in any of the other sprints. Mirco Maestri had a good year last year, but hasn't done anything of note this year. Maybe they'll get the finger out and try something this stage.. Maestri was another who got in the break today, do we give him another chance tomorrow? 

And as for Nippo-Vini-Fantini, well the best they have come up with this Giro is to send Hatsuyama on two Kamikaze breaks, one on his own, one with just one other rider. Ok, it got them hours of air time, but seeing as most people either switched over or fell asleep during those boring parts of the stage, I'm not sure many people actually saw it. Maybe this could be a stage for Marco Canola and JJ Lobato to actually show us they are in the race, we've not seen a whole lot of them at all. If Lobato can get in the break, he could be one of the better sprinters at the finish. 

Then we need to look at some rouleurs who will fancy a hit out ahead of the mountains, and I was thinking that maybe FINALLY it will be a Thomas de Gendt day, but then he went and got in the break today too! The legs weren't great though, he wasn't able to go with any of the key moves, so I'm leaving him I think. Even if he gets away, how does he win on a flat finish?

The guys who might fancy the TT on the final day might also fancy a hit out to test the legs before the weekend, Jos Van Emden and Victor Campanaerts are two who might fancy a good training session - of the two, I'd prefer to be on JVE at 400/1, it's a huge price if Roglic gives him the nod to go, although I might have a small bet on Campa too at 40/1. 

Chad Haga and Luke Durbridge are two more diesel engines who will possibly fancy a day in the break, if either of them get in it, they will be very hard to pull back, and Durbridge might have the skills to get away towards the end of the day.  At 100/1, why not have a small nibbble on him - Chaves was given the nod today to go today, Durbridge might be given the nod tomorrow.

With Ewan gone home now, Tosh Van Der Sande could also come in to play for Lotto, he could go in the break, or if the sprint gets really messy maybe he could sneak a podium position. He's 66/1. Pieter Serry tried to get in the break today, he missed out, but with Viviani gone home and no sprinter left for them, maybe Serry or Florian Senechal might try to go in the break. Senechal is only 25/1, so he is clearly fancied by more than me, but I'd rather be on Serry at the prices, he's 125/1.

I think it's touch and go between break and sprint though, and if it comes to a sprint, Arnaud Démare is a solid pick I think, he'll have a better leadout than Ackermann and has looked stronger than Ackers in recent days, he seems to be coming to the end of the race in good shape. The Points jersey is his for the taking too if he can just finish ahead of Ackermann in the sprint, he really can't be caught by anyone else, it will take Carapaz winning three of the remaining stages to overhaul him. 

If it does come to a bunch sprint, the likes of Ryan Gibbons, Davide Cimolai and Simone Consonni will be fighting it out for the 3rd spot too, Cimolai has probably shown he is the best of the rest that are still here. 

UPDATE: 10am - The more I think about it, the more I think FDJ will do nothing to help bring back the break of the day. There is a chance that if they do work all day that Ackermann could still win the stage, and they end up with nothing.. Will they really want to risk it and lose the jersey as well as the stage? Letting the break take the win will ensure the jersey stays with Démare.

And if they refuse to pull, Bora will have to work hard all day to pull back the break, and in doing so will wear through a lot of guys they will need for a leadout. FDJ should have their full leadout with Démare, so they have double the reason to not pull. So, if you did back Démare, I think we should reverse back out of it. Lay it back on Betfair if you can, or cash out for around the same stake with Bet365 if you backed him with them.

I just think we have the Ciclamen bet in the bag hopefully, but if not, and Ackermann does win, we lose on both fronts.. So better to keep that stake for another day. Instead, I'm adding a little bet on Danilo Wyss and Michael Gogl as two more possible break candidates. 

Recommendations:

0.2pts win on Jos Van Emden at 500/1 with Betway

0.2pts win on Pieter Serry at 125/1 with Betway

0.3pts win on Tosh Van der Sande at 66/1 with Betway

0.3pts win on Luke Durbridge at 80/1 with Betway

0.3pts win on Victor Campanaerts at 40/1 with Betway

0.2pts win on Andrea Vendrame at 150/1 with Bet365

2pts win on Arnaud Démare at 2/1 or so on Betfair when the market opens.  (REVERSED OUT OF)

0.2pts win on Danilo Wyss at 300/1

0.2pts win on Michael Gogl at 400/1 

Matchbets

Cimolai to beat Consonni and TVDS to beat Ventoso - 2pts at 5/4