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Published on Tuesday, 28 May 2019 19:32

Giro d'Italia St 17

Commezzadura - Anterselva

Wed. 29th May, 181kms 

Another day of climbing, following on from that monster stage yesterday, and although this stage looks a lot easier on paper, there is still a summit finish to contend with on the final 30km climb to Anterselva. 

After an early climb over the Passo Del Mendola, they'll feel looking at the profile, that they're going to be climbing for the remaining 120kms.. It is more or less uphill all the way, with just two little descents off the bumps of the Natz and Terenten to give them some rest. But the gradients are easy enough, averaging just 2-3% along the way, bar the final kick up to the finish in Antholz.

It's a bit of a bizarre finish, looping around through a tunnel and in to the Biathlon Stadium, the riders will have to cope with a tricky s-shaped finish to the stage. But as it looks like a day made for a breakaway, it may be that the winner will be coming home on his own. 

Stage 16 Review

There was a frantic start to the stage again and eventually a large break went up the road with 25 riders, with about half of them belonging to GC teams. With so many 'passengers' the break never really got as big a lead as they could have, reaching a maximum of around 5'15" and as they approached the Mortirolo the gap was down to around 4'40". At that point it looked like it would be a GC day, but suddenly the stronger men in the break started to press on and the gap started to go back out again. 

Caruso, Hirt, Ciccone, Masnada and Nieve pressed on, Nieve went 7/4 favourite for the stage and behind the peloton started to break up with Simon Yates, Bauke Mollema and Primoz Roglic all starting to struggle and were dropped. Nibali attacked, Hugh Carthy went with him and Movistar just paced themselves, eventually catching Nibali and Carthy, thanks to a surge by Lopez. 

The expected attack from Nibali down the sketchy descent of the Mortirolo never came, instead it was Amador, back from the break, who led the chase down the descent. Hirt and Ciccone had dropped Nieve and everyone else and forged on alone. On the descent and the flat roads everyone was really suffering from the cold and wet, you could nearly see Ciccone's teeth chattering with the cold. 

But he found the reserves from somewhere to hold off Hirt and celebrated in style, hurling his glasses to the crowd. Masnada hadn't been seen for about 2 hours but emerged out of the cars and motorbikes to take 3rd, while Nibali annoyed his each-way backers by sprinting to 4th. Yates went missing to bust one matchbet, Vuillermoz still hasn't even appeared on the results, don't know what happened to him, but Hugh Carthy did the business with a great ride to win his matchbet over Majka.

So a small profit on the matchbets, but a loss on the stage bets. The 7/4 on Carapaz for the overall is looking pretty good now though, he's in to 4/7 and you can cash out for a profit if you want, but I'm keeping mine. Another great day for Carapaz, a great stage by Movistar, they really have been killing it lately with their tactics and it's their's to lose now. And not only that, if Roglic keeps struggling and loses more time, Mikel Landa is poised to take a podium spot, he's only a minute behind Roglic. 

Nibali tried and tried, but just couldn't get away, it's as I've been saying from the start, he just cannot get away from these guys and will still find it as difficult in the coming stages to make up any time at all, let alone the 1'47" he needs to find on Carapaz. Ciccone looks home and hosed in the KOM jersey, Ciclamino is still up for grabs, but Démare has a tight grip on it. 

The Route

"After the start, the route descends slightly along the Val di Sole, up to Passo della Mendola (Mendel Pass), which averages just 4,5% for 8.4kms. The course drops down into Bolzano, climbs up the Eisack Valley, rolls past Bressanone and then reaches the Puster Valley. They then head towards the Natz climb (3.4kms at 7.6%) and Terenten climb (6.6kms at 7.6%), before the long, closing ascent leading to Antholz (Biathlon stadium)."

The final categorised part of the climb to Antholz averages 6.9% for 5.5kms, but as the last kilometre is flat to downhill, the average for the climbing part is actually 8.5% for 4kms, a pretty tough finish to the stage. The race enters the cross-country skiing track at the Biathlon stadium, descends a little bit through a tunnel under the road and then enters the stadium to a 110m home straight. 

Contenders

So we had a hell of a battle today with the big break of the day making it all the way again, but this time the Astana man came out the wrong side of a two-up sprint. Ciccone and Hirt were brilliant, even dropping Nieve, Caruso and Masnada on the Mortirolo to give themselves enough of a buffer to fight out the stage win. 

So it didn't turn out to be a GC day after all and a lot of them left a lot out on the road today. Not only the team leaders, but a lot of the domestiques had a pretty tough day too. So much so that I think there might be a bit of a truce in the peloton tomorrow and we could see the break being given a far bigger amount of lee-way. Lots of guys were totally frozen and broken looking at the end of that stage, Roglic looked a shell as he warmed down (right). 

Also, I don't think the GC teams will be putting riders in the break like they did today for the Mortirolo, there is no climb like the Mortirolo on this stage, they'll be better off staying in the peloton (unless one of them fancies his chances for the stage win from the break) so I'm going to focus on breakaway riders for this one. 

So we need to pick strong guys who can make the break and then are good enough climbers to be able to hang on and push for the win at the end of the day. Eddie Dunbar is one that will always be front of my thoughts, and even more so this Giro as he is going so well and has served us well, nearly winning for us at 50/1. He is still going really well, he sits in 22nd in the GC, but is far enough down not to trouble anyone. He will have no problem through the day's climbing and will like this finish more than the flat sprint. 

I've been waiting to have a go at Alexis Vuillermoz, I really didn't think some of the previous stages suited him perfectly, and was waiting to back him for this one. Turns out that the reason he finished so low down on the results today, and cost us the matchbet, was because he suffered a bad asthma attack on the Mortirolo and fell down a ravine! You couldn't make it up. Anyway, it's unlikely he'll be winning tomorrow I'd say after that. 

Astana will be keen to get men in the break though I'd say, now that Lopez's challenge is all but dead, it's unlikely he'll even make the podium now, he's been very disappointing. They have been firing men up the road a lot lately, with Cataldo winning on Sunday and Hirt coming second today. Maybe it's time for Pelle Bilbao and Ion Izagirre to try to take another stage and gain some time back in the team competition in the process. Bilbao was in the break today with Hirt and Villella, so let's give Izagirre a shot tomorrow to see if he can make the break. 

Will Ciccone go again tomorrow? I'd be surprised to be honest, he had a very hard day today and he looked shattered at times. Same with Masnada. But Thomas de Gendt might finally fancy going in a break, this is more like his sort of profile and he's been hiding away for two weeks more or less.

He finished only 18 minutes down today, so was still going pretty well, he finished in the same group as Bob Jungels, Francesco Gavazzi and four other Androni men, Larry Warbasse and Esteban Chaves. All of which could be fancies to give it a go tomorrow, kept their powder dry a little today, but still showing they have good legs to finish over a half an hour ahead of the autobus.

Bob Jungels is surely going to do something one of these days, this isn't such a hard stage and he might be one of the strongest at the end of the stage. Larry Warbasse's captain Tony Gallopin abandoned today, so he will have more freedom to try something tomorrow, and at a price like 200/1 he's worth a nibble. 

Gianluca Brambilla will be given a bit of freedom tomorrow I think, now that Mollema is also unlikely to finish on the podium. If they expect a calmer day GC-wise, then Mollema will be ok in the peloton, if it kicks off it would be good to have Brambilla up in the break. That finish would suit him well too and the team are buzzing after Ciccone's stage win today.

Maybe Davide Formolo will be given permission to go in the break for the same reason re. Majka? He helped nurse Majka to the line today, he's still 12th overall, but is far enough away from a top 10 place that the guys in the top 10 will be too worried if he goes up the road and takes a minute or two back. He could be one of the strongest climbers at the end of the stage and hasn't a bad kick on him. 

Amaro Antunes of CCC and Ruben Plaza of Israeli Cycling Academy are two others who featured in breaks in the first week, but we've barely seen them since, maybe they'll give it another go tomorrow. 

As for the GC men? Well if it comes back together, look for Yates, Roglic and Lopez to be looking to try to take some time back after that tough day they had today, and Nibali says tonight that he's going to have to come up with something a bit different to try to beat Carapaz - what will that be we wonder.. Mollema might like this finish too, it's not the toughest and he could sneak away while the others look at each other. But I think they will be fighting it out for minor honours, possibly for little time gaps, but not the stage win tomorrow. 

The darts are going to be thrown at the candidates below, hopefully we'll get a few in the break to give us a bit of excitement for the afternoon. The bookies have priced it up like a GC day with Yates as favourite, but I'm not sure it will be and I'm happy to take the picks below. If it does look like coming back to be a GC finish, then I'll be looking at the in-play prices, I wouldn't think they will be much different with 40kms to go.

I might have a go on Yates to bounce back from today - he went through a bad patch and lost ground, but he dragged Roglic back to within 40" of the leaders before Caruso took over at the front and destroyed their chances of closing up completely. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Eddie Dunbar at 33/1

0.5pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 28/1

0.5pts win on Davide Formolo at 14/1

0.25pts win on Larry Warbasse at 200/1

0.5pts win on Ion Izagirre at 22/1

Matchbets

Dombrowski to beat Hirt and Zakarin to beat Polanc - 2pts at 11/10

Dunbar to beat Chris Hamilton - 3.3pts at 8/11

Yates to beat Roglic and Landa to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 6/5