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Published on Friday, 24 May 2019 12:12

Giro d'Italia St 14

Saint Vincent - Courmayeur

Saturday 25th May, 131kms 

The shortest road stage of the Giro at just 131kms, it doesn't mean that it's going to be easy though with a very hard day in the saddle ahead of the riders with over 4,000m of vertical gain. 

This is a key stage as they tackle four tough climbs before the uphill finish to the ski station at Courmayeur in the shadow of Mont Blanc, the highest point in the Alps at 4,808. The riders cross the line near the Skyway Monte Bianco, a cable car to the Punta Helbronner on the slopes of Mont Blanc

This looked like a stage perfectly suited to a breakaway when I was prepping this a few weeks ago, as it comes a day after the hard stage 13 with the summit finish to Lago Serru. I thought the GC men might think that the final climb isn't  hard enough to make a difference so might look to conserve their energy for another day, but with the penultimate climb topping out with just 26kms to go we might see a few try their luck on that instead.

But now having seen what has happened in the last two days, and how the GC is opening up, I think this will be a 'balls-out' GC day. It is a short stage, we could see all-out war from early in the stage and I think we could see the GC men fighting it out here as there are so many keen to take back time on Roglic.  

Stage 13 Review

What a day we had today. A huge break went up the road, and what a break it was, with Mollema, Zakarin, Formolo, Pozzovivo, Ciccone, Dunbar, izagirre, Nieve and 17 more. Their lead was controlled quite well though by JV, their lead never getting up to more than about 3 1/2 minutes. As they hit the Pian Del Lupo, the break blew up and going over the top there were only 12 left up front. 

Behind Astana went to the front and took over from JV and promptly shed all the JV domestiques and pretty soon there were only about 12 men in the GC group too, with Roglic isolated as I thought he might be and Yates still with Hamilton, who has been superb. The gamble on Chaves seemed awry though as he went out the back pretty early on the Pian, but we soon saw on the final climb that the reason Yates had drifted and Chaves was being backed was because Yates just doesn't have the legs at the moment and slipped out of the GC group very early on. 

Up front though things were hotting up. Masnada attacked, took 4 guys with them, Mollema, Formolo, Nieve and Zakarin played it cool and ride their own pace, before eventually reeling them in and dropping them all. Landa attacked, and the race started to really blow up. Zakarin attacked, Nieve was the only one able to stay with him, Mollema cracked, but still held on for 5th and Nibali and Roglic marked each other out of it.

In the GC group, there was disaster for our man Lopez as he suffered a mechanical, seemingly jamming up his chain on a relatively easy piece of road, and as usual, these guys don't have a clue how to sort out something so simple and he ended up losing over 20" immediately, just as the race was going full gas. No one eased back for him, it was game on at that stage. He did incredibly well to get to within about 20m of Roglic and Nibali on his own, leaving Yates' group behind, but suddenly Roglic attacked and that was his chances of getting back on scuppered. 

Unseen to all Carapaz and Majka had also escaped away from Roglic and Nibali as they marked each other, Carapaz coming very close to landing the each-way for us by finishing 4th.. another so close, yet so far... 

All in all when the dust settled we saw Zakarin take a much-needed stage win for himself and Katusha, but also move in to 3rd on the GC. Lopez lost more time, Yates lost a load of time, Landa, Majka and Mollema made up some time on Roglic and Sivakov took over the lead of the white jersey. And alongside all that action, Jan Polanc pulled off a monster ride to stay in pink, he still holds a 2'25" lead over Roglic. 

Shitty day with the picks, Carapaz almost made the each-way, Lopez blew it with his mechanical (he was 3/1 favourite for the stage at the time) and the matchbets went pearshaped with poor performances by Chaves, Sosa and a great performance from Zak.. Sivakov to beat Kangert was the only one that landed. 

The Route

A short and very intense high mountain stage. The only flat stretch of the stage, 14 km out of 131, is around Aosta. Otherwise, the road goes either up or down. After the Verrayes categorised climb and after crossing Aosta, the route takes in consecutive climbs to Verrogne (13.8km at 7.1% and 15 km downhill), Combes (up to Truc d’Arbe, 8.2km at 7%), Morgex and Colle San Carlo.

The Colle San Carlo is a nasty lump, averaging 9.8% for 10.5kms, with several sections at 10% and more. The route then drops sharply to La Thuile and Pré-Saint-Didier, where the old road eventually leads to Courmayeur.

The final climb is 8 km long, sloping at 6% for the first 3 km, then at 2-3% for the next 5 kilometres, all the way to the finish. The road zig-zags through six hairpins before the 5km to go marker before it eases off going through the villages and kicks up again for the last 2kms, with a kilometre at 5% and the last 500m eases back to around 1%.

Contenders and Favourites

So a pretty crazy day again at the Giro, it has definitely come alive eh. So what happens tomorrow? Can the break make it again? It's a short stage, so if a break does go, it will need to go early and build up a lead quickly, as the GC teams could really kick this one off early in an effort to try to shake things up again. The break should really have been caught today, but the peloton eased back at just the worst possible moment, and the gap went from about 20" to over 2 minutes in no time. 

I think we will get another big, strong break go up the road, and we have to start looking at some of the stronger guys so far in the race, if you don't have the legs, you don't have the legs. Giulio Ciccone did a super job for Mollema today, and in the process took the KOM jersey back off of his team-mate Brambilla. He will fancy another go at the points on offer tomorrow I think, there's a Cat 2 and a Cat 1 inside the first 50kms.

If it's looking like they won't be given enough lead to go on to win the stage he can ease back and save the legs having banked another 58pts. But if they are given enough room then he could go on to take the stage. Gianluca Brambilla is another who I think might like it, especially if it comes down to a small group sprint, but the one worry I have about the two of them is the energy they expended in the last few days. 

I think Astana will be on the war path tomorrow though, they will be looking to get revenge for what happened today. Lopez came back very strong, but clearly burnt a lot of matches doing so, he probably would have been able to ride away from Nibali/Roglic and go with Carapaz and Majka. He will have the squad with him tomorrow I think, Bilbao, Izagirre, Hirt etc will be tasked with ripping it up the earlier climbs to shed domestiques and give him a chance to attack hard on the San Carlo.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him and Mikel Landa do a two-up attack again, like they did yesterday and forge ahead with 5kms or so to go to the summit. They will then have to charge down the descent for 17kms, and at the bottom there are only 9kms to the finish. If the two of them come to the finish together, then there's only one winner I think, Lopez will easily outsprint him. 

Landa looked great today, attacking away with such fluidity and power, he quickly took out a minunte on some pretty strong guys. He also pulled back a minute on Zakarin and Nieve over the last 10kms or so, and he keeps chipping away at the time gap. He's right back in the hunt, and he'll love some of the stages to come, especially 16.

The one small concern I'd have about backing him at just 5/2 tomorrow is that he put a lot in to today's stage and might just think about holding back a little until Tuesday.. But I don't think he can afford to, he has to keep trying to take time, and he'll be able to rest Sunday a bit and then it's a rest-day on Tuesday. 

Can Roglic unhitch the anchor he has tied to Nibali's back pocket and go on the offensive tomorrow? He is frustrating the Shark, he's starting to annoy him now.. But he's right to watch Nibali, he's technically his biggest danger. But in doing so he has let a lot of guys back in to the race who were more or less out of it - Mollema is a threat (but will probably fade next week), Zakarin is a big threat now, Majka is a threat, Carapaz is a threat.. It's a lot more open than it was just two days ago. 

He is isolated, he is on his own when push comes to shove, but he is handling it all pretty well so far. He shadowed Nibali today like he hadn't the legs to go after the other guys shooting off the front, but then when Lopez got to within touching distance he turned on the after-burners and roared away from him,  eventually putting a minute in to him at the summit. This stage could well still come down to a reduced bunch finish of maybe 10 guys, and if so, Roglic would be one of the favourites in the uphill sprint finish. 

Rafal Majka and Bauke Mollema will be looking to take back more time too, but Mollema looked shattered at the end today and Majka might not be able to shake off the Movistar guys or Lopez, and he wouldn't have the best sprint from a reduced sprint. Same with Zakarin really, it wouldn't surprise me also to see him struggle a little tomorrow after that effort today, he has a tendency to be very inconsistent with his performances. 

The other guy I like again for this, is my other pick for today's stage, Carapaz. He is one of the other Movistar guys I mentioned above, he is sure to be involved again. He absolutely flew up that last climb today, coming to within 18" of landing the 3rd spot for us, he clearly has very good legs. And I think this finish suits his attacking style very well, its a similar sort of finish to the two stages he has won here before. At around 5/1, I think he's a good bet to nothing, he'll be right up there. Even if Lopez or someone attacks away to win, I think Carapaz could attack away from the GC group and chase them home. 

Mikel Nieve did very well today but just couldn't catch Zakarin in the closing kilometres, he might try again tomorrow, but I think it will be hard for him to win it, it worked well for him with the break today. Yates is really struggling, he said he just couldn't follow today himself, no excuses, and Chaves seems to be struggling just as much, the light went out very quickly today for him. 

A lot of other guys really struggled today, including Hugh Carthy, but will he be able to bounce back tomorrow? Pavel Sivakov looked good, but hard to see him winning it, and it's unlikely Eddie Dunbar will be in the break for a 3rd day running. 

So, it's a tough one - I really want to stick to the same two picks as today, but fear getting our fingers burnt twice. I think there are a lot of reasons to back both of them, only a few reasons not to. One of the reasons not to with Lopez is because rain is forecast at Courmayeur tomorrow afternoon, all afternoon. That could make the descent of the Coll de San Carlo pretty treacherous, just look at Ivan Basso here descending like a granny in 2006 (https://twitter.com/faustocoppi60/status/1060962697129398272)

That will go against Lopez a little I think, he can be quite the tentative descender, but Carapaz seems to have no problem with the rain. Nibali will lie the descent, Roglic should be ok too, but Mollema and Majka can be a bit dodgy in the wet too. I think then that Carapaz is my main bet, with a little saver on Lopez win only, with a dabble on Brambilla as an outside bet as he's 80/1, he could stay with the GC guys and could do well at this finish. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts e/w on Richard Carapaz at 13/2 with Skybet

1pt win on M A Lopez at 9/2 with Skybet

0.3pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 80/1 with Skybet

Matchbets: 

Lopez to beat Yates, Nieve to beat Formolo and Majka to beat Zakarin - 2pts at 7/4