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Published on Wednesday, 08 May 2019 13:03

Giro D'Italia St 1

Bologna - San luca

Sat 11th May, 8.5km ITT

The Giro goes back to its traditional Saturday start, having started on a Friday in Jerusalem in 2018. But like last year they start with an individual TT, and at 8.5kms it's even shorter than last year's opening test won by Tom Dumoulin.

Dumoulin beat Rohan Dennis by just 2", but it was the gaps to the other GC favourites which was notable - he took 20" off Simon Yates, 33" off Pinot and 37" from Froome. It was a very wavy and hilly course, perfect for Dumoulin to put the hammer down, both uphill and down, but this is a different proposition this year.

The TT may be short, but it's not going to be easy. The organisers have added a real sting to the tail of the opening stage, as after traversing a flat first 6kms, the road suddenly kicks upwards for the last 2.1kms at an average gradient of 9.7%. There are long stretches at 10-12% before hitting a max of 16% inside the last kilometre. There may not be much between most of them at the end of the 6kms, but there could be telling gaps just 2.1kms later.

The Route

"A short individual time trial running flat for the first 6 km, and then rising steeply for the following 2 km. The stage is played out on wide and mostly straight city streets, up to the foot of the San Luca climb. The 2.1-km ascent has an average 9.7% gradient, with long stretches exceeding 10-12%, and topping out at 16% at the last kilometre (as they zig-zag through a steep left hand, then right hand bend.

The closing phases of the stage are very demanding: 2,100 metres before the finish, the route takes a sharp U-turn to the right, and the climb to San Luca begins. The climb alternates sharp ramps (up to 16%) and short lengths with 8-9% gradients. The roadway is narrowed and runs along an arcade, climbing all the way to the sanctuary. The road reaches the maximum gradient after the first pass under the cloister, by a double curve (“le Orfanelle”). The home straight is short (90 m), and the finish line sits on 5 m tarmac.

The fight between GC contenders will be on since the first stage, which may already provide a rough ranking of the 'top players" - The Giro Roadbook.

Analysis and Picks

Tom Dumoulin looked the obvious pick a few weeks ago, he'll hammer it along the opening flat 6kms faster than most and should climb as fast, if not faster than most on the hill. This time last year he came in to the race in mediocre form, having just raced 2065.5kms in the season, and his only ITT entry of the season saw him finish 12th at the UAE Tour. Despite that, he blitzed the opening TT, beating Dennis and Campanaerts by 2" and laid the groundwork for what looked like his second Giro win.

This year he comes in to the opening TT with 2,678kms in his legs, and some decent results along the way, including 4th overall in Tirreno and 6th in the UAE Tour. He did finish 1'25" behind Roglic in Tirreno though, losing time in various stages along the way, but his season is all about the Giro though, and being ready for this TT.

The only other ITT he won last year though, besides this Giro TT, was the last TT on stage 20 of the Tour, when he beat Chris Froome by less than a second, after bit of a cock-up in the Sky camp with Froome trying to let Thomas win the stage.. So despite being rated as one of the best TT'ers in the world, he doesn't actually win all that often of late.

Primoz Roglic looks very suited to this course too, he is a very good triallist and climbs punchy, short hills like this faster than most. In an all-uphill 9.9km TT in the Tour of Romandie last year, he finished just 4" behind Egan Bernal, with 4th place rider, Steven Kruijswijk some 48" down. In the 7.5km TT in the Ster ZLM in 2017 he won it by 3", a pure test of short-distance, almost sprinting power.

He's been on fire this year so far too with victories in the three stage races he's entered, posting 5 wins and 5 more top 3 placings (excluding Jumbo's win in the TTT in the UAE Tour). He was one of only two key men who decided to race the Tour of Romandie before the Giro and he charged around the short prologue to come within 0.3" of beating Jan Polanc. He then won two more stages before blitzing the opposition, including Victor Campanaerts, in the final 16km TT. He too will blast it along the flat opening 6kms, and will shoot up the ascent, he looks a very strong favourite, but not much value in him at just 1/3..

And what about Simon Yates? His TT'ing was pretty abysmal not so long ago, now he's blowing the field apart in Paris-Nice to take his first ever TT win as a pro. Prior to that his best result was 7th in the Giro TT last year. Yates was on it from the start, setting blistering splits along the way and held it all the way to the line to win by 7" from Nils Pollitt and 11" from Kwiatkowski.

This short intro might go slightly against him, I'm not sure he has the power of the likes of Dumoulin and Roglic to hammer a big gear. But he will be one of the fastest up the hill though, this sort of gradient and distance is perfect for him. The question is, has be stayed close enough to the top guys on the flatter part to kick on for victory on the hill? It could be close with him..

If you were looking at his GC performances so far this year though, he wouldn't fill you with a lot of confidence, 41st in Andalucia, 25th in Paris-Nice, 13th in Catalunya, he just seems to have been missing something so far this season. But as joint second favourite to win this race overall, he will be just looking to keep himself within 20" or so of Roglic and Dumoulin I think, he knows by now that patience is what it takes to win a Grand Tour, not killing yourself in the first week!

Ion Izagirre is another who could go well as he can hold his own on the flat and will climb fast at the end. He has some decent results in hilly TTs, most recently finishing 7th in the 11km ITT in Itzulia, 3rd in the ITT in Andalucia and 2nd in the TT in Valenciana which was dead flat for 9.2kms, then 700m uphill at 8.2%, a good prep for this. He beat the likes of Tony Martin, Jos Van Emden and Nelson Oliveira that day, showing he is well able to hold his own on the flat and power up an uphill finish.

He has won a 4km Prologue in Romandie beating Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski and Thomas, a 17km hilly TT in Tour de Suisse ahead of Miguel Angel Lopez and Fabian Cancellara and has been 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Spanish ITT Nationals. He should go well here and kick off what could be a good Giro for him. At 18/1 he's worth a shot if you can get e/w somewhere, or maybe around 7/2 to come in the top 3 if someone offers it.

Ilnur Zakarin was a good TT'er once upon a time, he won the 2015 Tour of Romandie on the back of a TT performance that saw him finish 9" ahead of Rohan Dennis on a hilly 17km course.. He actually had set the fastest intermediate time (ahead of Tony Martin and Chris Froome) but then suffered a mechanical and lost time. He also finished 5th in the 2017 14km ITT up to Mount Brouilly in Paris Nice, which had a similar sort of profile to this.

He has been Russian TT champion twice in the past, and warmed up for this in Romandie like Roglic, but was way off the pace in the final TT, finishing a minute behind him. I can't see him pulling a performance out that will land him a podium but he might be top 10.

Miguel Angel Lopez finished 2nd in the Colombian nationals ITT this year, 35" behind Dani Martinez, but 54" faster than Egan Bernal. He also has finished 2nd in that hilly 17km TT in TDS behind Ion Izagirre but he doesn't have a whole lot of other noteworthy TT performances on his palmares. He will fly up the hill, but might have lost too much time on the flat,

Vincenzo Nibali will do mediocre on both so he won't be winning, same goes for Mikel Landa. Jos Van Emden and Victor Campanaerts will fly along the TT, but will die on the climb. Bob Jungels is one though who might surprise, he will power along the flat, and he's not a bad climber at all on a short, punchy hill like this, he has won LBL after all from an attack on a hill somewhat similar to this in gradient and length. He finished 11th in the hilly TT in PN won by Yates, 39" back over 25.5kms, and he has plenty notable TT performances to his name on all sorts of courses.

And it's hard to see anyone else get involved really. This stage could be won by a second or two, there won't be much between the top guys, it could be something similar to the Romandie TT when there was less than a second between Tratnik, Roglic and Bohli and it could all come down to taking a corner right, getting your gearing right, or making sure you get your split right between effort on the flat part versus on the hill. Maybe one to just dabble a little bit and wait for stage 2. I'll update with more once we get more prices closer to the day.

Just for info by the way, I am away in Ireland at a family event this weekend but I'll do my best to keep the blog updated as much as possible, but bear with me if I post a bit late on Saturday and Sunday. Thanks.

Recommendations:

1pt on Ion Izagirre to finish in the top 3 at 7/2

Matchbets

Simon Yates to beat Nibali, Roglic to beat Dumoulin and Formolo to beat Vuillermoz - 2pts at evens

Laurens de Plus to beat Pelle Bilbao - De Plus has a 75% to 25% record in TTs head-to-head versus Bilbao, the 11/8 looks great value - 2pts at 11/8