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Published on Thursday, 09 May 2019 12:50

Points Jersey Betting 

Who will win the Points Jersey at the 2019 Giro?

The leader of the points competition in the Giro wears the Cyclamen jersey.. Cyclawhat? Cyclamen - named after the Alpine flower of the same colour, it was introduced in 1970 (changed from a red colour). 

The organisers switched back to red again in 2010 (it had been red from 1967-1969) and called it the Maglia Rosso Passione, but in 2017 they switched it back to Cyclamen again in honour of the 100th edition of the race. It was won that year by sprinter Fernando Gaviria, and again last year by sprinter Elia Viviani (below).

The Giro's 'sprinters' points jersey can often be difficult for pure sprinters to win, such is the amount of climbing that needs to be done over the three weeks. It's difficult, but not impossible - as was clearly demonstrated by Elia Viviani last year and Fernando Gaviria in 2017. I didn't give either of them much chance of finishing to be honest, but both did, hanging in there over the mountains. 

So where does this route sit in terms of being climber or sprinter friendly? Most of the sprint opportunities come early in the race, with only stage 18 in the final week looking like it could be a sprinter's one, that is, for any sprinters that are still left in the race. 

Stage 2 should be one for the sprinters, but not guaranteed they'll all be there, with the two lumps inside the last 50kms. Stages 3, 5, 8, 10 and 11 are much more sprinter-friendly though, possibly 6 if they can hang in there over the Cat 2 and the bump just after it in the last 20kms. So potentially seven out of 19 road stages could be won by sprinters going for the points jersey, but not guaranteed..

As the points are skewed more towards sprint stages it is designed to make it a little easier for sprinter types to win it again this year, hence we have mostly sprinters at the top of the market, Primoz Roglic at 14/1 is the first non-sprinter in the betting... But most importantly they need to finish the race.. I didn't think Gaviria or Viviani would, but they managed it, we have a similar dilemma with the sprinters this year, but it does look a lot harder for them to make it to the finish this year, they're left with a huge amount of pain and suffering in the final week, and no sprint finale to finish the race with either.  

How the points are awarded

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage - the sprint stages offer more points in a bid to try to ensure the sprinters jersey is won by a sprinter! They changed the allocation of points in 2017, but have kept it exactly the same again this year. 

Category A+B stages (Stages 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 18) they offer points for the first 20 riders in the following allocation: 50-35-25-18-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV for Traguardi Volanti on the route maps) there are points for the first eight allocated as follows: 20-12-8-6-4-3-2-1. With 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey..

Category C stages: (Stages 2, 6, 7, 8, 12) there are points for the first 10 as follows: 25, 18, 12, 8, 6, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first five: 10, 6, 3, 2, 1, same as last year.

Category D stages: (Stages 1,9,13,14,15,16,17,19, 20 and 21) offer points for the first 10 as follows: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first three: 8, 4, 1. 

The Contenders 

This is a hard Giro, no questions about that. And there is almost no incentive for most sprinters to stay after the second rest day, with a brutally hard week ahead of them and a TT at the end of it, not even the chance of a sprint on the final day like in the Tour. One sprint stage on stage 18, but even then, there's a small chance a strong break makes it all the way if there are not many sprinters left, there mightn't be many teams will be willing to chase it down, especially as the GC teams will be looking to save energy ahead of the final two mountain stages. 

So we have to decide who is going to make it all the way to Verona or not.. And to be honest, I don't think many sprinters will.. 

Elia Viviani is the 3/1 favourite for the jersey again, and he's the obvious pick, if he can make it all the way to the finish. I doubted that he would make it last year, but he did, just, coming close to missing the time limit a few times. I'm sure there were some friendly motorbikes and cars along the way that might have helped, but made it he did and landed the 10/11 odds. 

He's had an ok season, but you can't say it's been a great season. Ok he's had 4 wins, but was beaten by Gaviria and Groenewegen in the 3DDP and couldn't finish off the work of his team in Gent Wevelgem. He was also beaten by his team-mate Alaphilippe in that crazy sprint in Tirreno and by Gaviria in UAE too.

But this is the Giro - and Viv loves the Giro, especially in his new Italian tricolore (right). Yes, it looks like he's become the Hungarian champion, but it'll look great from the heli-shots above! DQS are here for Bob Jungels chances in the GC, he has a chance of a top 10, but for the rest of the race, that team is set up for Viviani. They are not a team who will tow Bob over the mountains, he'll be on his own there, but they are a superb leadout for him. Jungels himself will pitch in, Sabatini, Senechal, Serry, Capecchi - all will be driving at the front with 5kms to go, then Viviani will take over. 

He should be good for a few stage wins, especially the earlier ones and the flat ones of stages 10 and 11, but he will struggle on the stages with hills before the sprints like stage 2, and it's touch and go I think whether he'll make it to Verona, the temptation to withdraw during the rest day ahead of the Gavia/Mortirolo stage will be very tempting. But if he is in the jersey with a healthy lead it will be difficult to do so. The ambiguity about this situation is reflected in his 3/1 price as opposed to the 10/11 last year, the premium is you taking a chance he will make it to the end. 

Fernando Gaviria made it home with the jersey two years ago, but he only just made it on some stages, in particular stage 16 which went over the Mortirolo and Stelvio, coming within minutes of missing the time limit. That was an easier last week than this I think, but he didn't score a single point from stage 15 onwards, he had built up such a lead before that, 123pts over Stuyven, that all he had to do was dig in and suffer all the way to claim the title, he couldn't be caught. 

I can't see him building up such a lead this year, and in fact I'm not even sure he'll be leading at all come the final week. So therefore, the temptation to step off one day might be too big. He is scheduled to ride the Tour as well, maybe he'll go to Italy, try to land a stage or more and then pack his bags to recover for France. That's my take. 

Pascal Ackermann is the second favourite at 4/1, not much of a difference to Viv in terms of price, and he will be challenging Viviani for a lot of the sprint stages. He's mostly done one-day races this year, winning 3 of them, including just a few weeks ago the Exchborn Frankfurt ahead of Dege and Kristoff. He had crashed out on stage 1 of the TOTA just before that, initial reports suggesting he had fractured his arm, but clearly he had recovered well enough to not only take to the line of the E-F, but win it with a brave and strong sprint. 

There is a lot of pressure on him to deliver, he's taken Sammy Bennett's place, even though Bennett looks to be in the best form of his career. This is his first Grand Tour and to be honest I fear for him finishing it too. He's 78kgs, that's 7kgs heavier than Gaviria and 11kgs heavier than Viviani. That's a lot of weight to be dragging over the mountains. And I think he will be playing runner-up to Viviani and Gaviria in most sprints, so won't be clocking up the big points either and there might be little incentive for him to stay, as the GC men will take over the point scoring in the final week. 

Arnaud Démare is 6/1 3rd favourite and he's one who will like some of the hillier sprint stages, definitely more than the two guys above. Winner of Milan San Remo and with several other decent results on hilly races, Démare can hang in there pretty well on lumpy days. In two lumpy stages in the Algarve at the start of the year he finished ahead of Ackermann when finishing 2nd twice. 

He too is flaky though when it comes to actually finishing a Grand Tour, he's started six and only finished three of them. He started the Giro in 2012 and 2016 and finished neither of them, and in the 2017 TDF I had picked him for the points competition at something like 16/1 and he was poised to take over from Kittel after a great start, Kittel would never have made it to Paris.. But on stage 8 he got sick, and despite several members of the team dropping back to try to nurse him to the finish, they all finished over the time limit and all four were out the race. 

He did finish the last GT he started though, last year's TDF, and was 3rd in the points competition behind Sagan and Kristoff. I think he might do ok in this race though and there's a slightly better chance of him making it to Verona than some of the other sprinters, and he has a team that are here for him really. But he won't be beating the top three guys in the sprints, he'll be picking up scraps here and there and hoping that they fall away and he's the last man standing with just enough of a lead to take it ahead of the GC guys. 

Giacomo Nizzolo is about the only other sprinter I'll give a chance of doing well in this competition, even though his form this year has been pretty poor. He has entered 7 GTs and has DNFed in only one, he knows how to finish a Tour. Not only that, but he's won the points competition here twice and was 2nd another year, he knows how to rack up the points. Be that from intermediates and breakaways to picking up scraps in the big sprints, when he won it in 2016 and 2015 he didn't actually win a stage. 

Bar Ben O'Connor who will be going for the GC, this team looks built around him and helping him on the tougher stages to score points, I can see him jumping in some breaks with a team-mate to score points on the road and he could well get in a break on stage 18 that makes it all the way as there will be no one left to chase.. or even if he doesn't and the break is caught, he has 50pts for the taking there, with possibly very little competition. 

On to the GC guys, and the obvious pick is Primoz Roglic - he will score points in all three time trials, albeit a max of 15pts, and he will score regularly on the hilly stages, of which there are plenty. He's probably good for a stage win, if not two or three on the hillier stages, but again, they only score 15pts for a win, and drop off to 12, 9 etc quickly. 

Tom Dumoulin is similar, but won't win as many stages I think, but will score regularly on the TTs and mountain stages. Simon Yates and Lopez likewise, but should be good for a few more stage wins, possibly even on the Cat C's 7 and 8 with the punchy finishes, they pay 25pts as opposed to 15. 

Sacha Modolo isn't good enough any more to score enough points and Caleb Ewan will not make it to the finish. Diego Ulissi, Davide Cimolai and Kristian Sbaragli are three more who could do ok, as could Thomas de Gendt who will probably be out in the break quite a lot and could hoover up lots of points out on the road. Maybe not at the finishes though as he's more likely to be reeled in than go all the way. 

So who wins it then? It's a real tough one to call. One other thing that I think can play a big part in deciding the outcome of this jersey in the final week - there are lots of intermediate points available out on the route of the mountainous stages, often before they get really hard. 8pts for each of the intermediate sprints will actually score you more than winning the stage. 

Take stage 16 - one sprint comes before the Gavia - get in the break, take 8pts and cruise home with maybe an 8 min lead starting the Gavia and Mortirolo. Stage 17 - a sprint after just 108kms before the later hills, and if you're strong enough another just before the final 30km climb, the break might have made it to that one too before being reeled in. Stage 19 - two sprints that should be taken by the break, stage 20 - another sprint at the bottom of the Manghen after just 59kms. Similarly with earlier stages 12 and 14, 12 offers 10pts for the win. 

I think therefore that I am leaning back towards the sprinters again - I think the GC men might not be able to score enough points later in the race to catch someone with a big lead who goes out there and continues to pick up intermediate sprints right up to the second last day. The question is, who can last it all the way.. Viviani will be a coin toss as to whether he'll make it or not. Démare and Nizzolo offer better hopes to me and we can re-evaluate maybe after a week or ten days as we might still be able to get someone like Roglic at a decent price if it's looking like he can make a late surge. 

Recommendations:

2pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 6/1 with Skybet

1pt each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 7/1 with Bet365