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Published on Wednesday, 08 May 2019 14:20

KOM Betting Preview

Who will be the KOM at the 2019 Giro?

The competition for the 'Maglia Azzura' for the King of the Mountains of the Giro is always a really hard one to call, as there are just so many riders who could have their eyes on this prestigious prize. 

It's almost impossible to know beforehand who is going to be aiming to try to win the jersey and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous stage when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point available on the day.. Getting an early lead in this competition then turns the rider in to a points maniac and they can often then go on to try to just pick up points all through the race to win the jersey.

To highlight just how hard to predict the winner of this is, starting stage 19 last year, Simon Yates had 91 pts, Ciccone was 2nd with 52pts and Froome was down in 5th with just 36pts. By the end of the day Froome led with 123pts and Yates didn't score a point all day to stick on 91pts. Yates had taken the lead in the competition from his teammate Chaves on the 9th stage when he won atop of Gran Sasso. Froome was 22/1 to win beforehand, Yates was 33/1.. Miguel Angel Lopez was the 10/3 favourite, he never got close, he finished 12th with 37pts. 

This Giro is similar to the last two editions, with the backloading of a lot of mountain points in the final week of racing. Similar to how Froome came from nowhere last year, 2017 saw Mikel Landa start stage 11 without a single point in the competition, and with six stages to go he was 11th in the classification with just 20pts. But he went nuts from there on - scoring 104pts on stage 16 alone, 65pts on stage 18 and suddenly it was all over. He won stage 19 for good measure and finished the competition 106pts clear of Lulu Sanchez, with Fraile 14pts further back in 3rd. 

There was also a dramatic swing in 2016 with Damiano Cunego leading the competition and Mikel Nieve down in 6th place with just three stages to go. But Nieve also went nuts and picked up 48pts on stage 19 and 54pts on stage 20 to leapfrog over Cunego and take the jersey. 

Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:

The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is the Passo Gavia on stage 16, where the first 9 over the top win the following points: 50, 30, 20, 14, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1 - 5pts more for the winner than last year. With this climb alone offering such a large amount of points it could completely change the top of the mountains classification, but there are still plenty of points up for grabs in the last few stages. 

If someone is targeting the jersey then it might pay to just tick along picking up points here and there to stay in contention and then going all-in on stages 13, 14, 16, 19 and 20 which offer a lot of points out on the course. A strong break should take the Cima Coppi points as the Gavia is crested with 95kms still to go, and they could even hang on to the finish where they pass the Cat 1 Mortirolo along the way too. That's a massive 90pts on offer in one stage if someone is really strong and committed that day. The climbs and points are as follows:

• Ten 4th Cat climbs: the first three win 3-2 and 1 points respectively
• Eight 3rd Cat climbs: the first four riders win 9-4-2-1 points
• Twelve 2nd Cat climbs: first six riders win 18-8-6-4-2-1 points
• Eight 1st Cat climbs: the first eight riders win 40-18-12-9-6-4-2-1 points
• Cima Coppi: The “Coppi Summit” for the highest point of the race. This year it is the Passo Gavia on Stage 16. The first nine win 50-30-20-14-10-6-4-2-1 points

There are 688pts in total available in the race, 126pts more than last year. There are 554pts available out on the course compared to just 134pts at the finish of stages, a very similar situation to two years ago when there were 562pts out on the road. When there are more points out on the course, the GC favourites tend to let others scrap out the climbs along the stages and just go hard in the final climbs.

The stage 16 is going to be crucial as I said in this with 90pts up for grabs, but also, stage 14 is a huge one with 98pts available out on the road of a very short, 131km stage, with 9 more points at the finish. Stage 20 is another big one with the Campo, Manghen and Rolle out on the road and a Cat 2 and 1 at the finish. That's 76pts for the break to snaffle up out on the course, or another 58pts if they make it all the way - the jersey could well be decided on the penultimate stage. 

Contenders

Looking at the betting, we have Simon Yates the marginal favourite at 5/1, and he is sure to give you a good run for your money, if he hadn't collapsed last year on stage 19 he'd have won it comfortably. He will be there or thereabouts on all the mountain stages, he'll be good for a stage win or more and we could very well see him take the final 58pts of the race if he goes for it over the last two climbs. Even the last climb of the day could swing it, with 40pts available.

I can see him being right at the front on stages 13, 19 and 20, he may well come close to winning all three stages, but will those bring him enough points to fend off the guys who go for the points out on the road in breaks? Depending on how they race stage 14 though, as it's only 131kms long we may see it turn in to a GC day early on and there are 98pts out on the course on that one too. 

Mikel Landa is the second favourite at 8/1, and it probably comes down to whether Landa wants to win the KOM or not, or whether he wants to give it a shot at the GC. In 2015 Mikel Landa came very close to winning this competition, Gio Visconti just hanging on by 3pts after a surge by Landa on the final stage. Visconti himself had leapt five places up the rankings on stage 19 after a monster break netted him 74pts. That year he won a stage to Aprica which took them over the Mortirolo, so it's a climb he knows well and likes. 

He went on to win the jersey though in 2017, but by stage 15 he had only 20pts to Dumoulin's 51pts. But he kicked in to gear on stage 16 which took them over the Mortirolo, Stelvio and Umbrailpass when he finished 2nd to Nibali on the stage, but put a massive 104pts in the bag to leapfrog them all in to 1st place. By stage 18 he had 189pts and sealed the deal by winning stage 19. 

He's had a tough last 6 months or so, but he himself has said that it has left him fresh, that he doesn't have much racing in the legs. He and other members of the Movistar team, including Carapaz reconned the Alpine stages (13 and 14) and he says they know their goals for the Giro.. He also plans to ride the Tour as well, he thinks he can do both. Well, if he thinks he can do both, maybe he's going to focus on the KOM here and GC in the TDF? Or would it be the other way around with Quintana leader there? I think he should know he's not going to win this and have fun in the mountains, it looks perfect for him to repeat the feat of 2017. 

Fausto Masnada will get lots of support as he is a very exciting climber from a team that will just be attacking all the time and is likely to try to target a prize like this. And he's in pretty decent form too as he showed in the TOTA, winning two stages, the second of which particularly showed how good his climbing legs are, riding away from a decent Colombian climber, Carlos Quintero. 

He finished 26th overall in the Giro last year, an excellent result for only his first GT, but he was fancied for the KOM last year too by some but came absolutely nowhere, although he did show his legs on Etna with a strong effort that just fell short. Can he go better this year? Will he be minded to go again and again and again to hoover up points? I'm not so sure just yet.. I think he'll be stage hunting, and in doing so he has to be more selective in the stages he targets, rather than a scatter-gun approach, and pick the one or two days he's really going to go for it. 

Thomas de Gendt on the other hand is mister KOM when it comes to small races, already this year he's won it in Paris-Nice and Catalunya. And step back eight months and he was King of the Mountains in the Vuelta too, beating Bauke Mollema and Luis Angel Maté. In 2017 he finished 5th in the Vuelta KOM and 3rd in the TDF, and looking at the profile of a lot of stages in this race, I would be very surprised if TDG doesn't finish near the top of the table at the end of the race. 

I could see him going for it maybe as early as stage 6 or 7 with the first Cat 2's of the race, and stage 12 looks like one he'd fancy too with the big spike in the middle of a power-man's stage. From then on he could rack up enough points out on the road on stages 13 and 14 in the break and not worry about the finish to have a healthy lead going in to the final week. And he could seal it with the Cima Coppi on the Passo Manghen on Stage 16, just picking up what he can for the rest of the race, but he might have a big enough buffer. He's just 9/1 too, but you know he's going to probably give you some excitement every day. 

Giulio Ciccone is another in the mould of Masnada, a young Italian climber who is not afraid to attack a lot! The 24 year old Trek man nearly made a big name for himself in this competition last year, coming to within 17pts of beating Chris Froome. He got in the break of the day on the final mountain stage and amassed 56pts on the final climbs, more than doubling his total up to then to jump 3 places to 2nd in the classification. If Froome hadn't done what he did on stage 19, he'd have won the KOM prize. 

His form was a lot better going in to this race last year though while riding for Bardiani, like most of Trek he's having a pretty miserable year so far. It's hard to put faith in him with that hanging over him and the team, but one to watch and see how he's going, he could come alive in the last week and shoot up the scoring. 

Primoz Roglic is just 14/1, can he do a Froome like last year and take a number of jerseys home with him? I would not have seen that coming with Froome last year, but neither did he I guess, nor was he thinking about the KOM jersey when he took off on stage 19. Roglic will be at the front over a lot of climbs, be they on the tough GC days which kick off from afar, or at the summit finishes once break's have been caught.

But will he be bothered? I don't think so. I think he's a very focused and driven individual and I don't think he'll care one jot about the KOM jersey. It might come to him by default like with Froome, but I don't think a GC man will take it this year. 

Ivan Sosa - will he be trying for a high GC finish, to establish himself as a GC rider in Skineos, or will he be a bit of a loose cannon here, attacking a lot, getting in breaks, and maybe going for the KOM jersey? It's a big ask for a 21 year old, but last year he finished in the top 3 of every KOM competition he took part in, including 3rd in the Tour de l'Avenir, and winning the Sibiu Tour and Burgos. A superb climber, you just know that if he's in a duel with some other guys from a break at the top of something like the Mortirolo or Gavia, they're probably not going to beat him. 

16/1 is very short for someone so young, but it could be a very interesting Giro to watch from a Skineos point of view, their young guns could blow things up on a number of days and get two or more guys like Dunbar, TGH and Sivakov in the break with Sosa - then he'd have a decent chance, as long as he's the chosen one and not one of the others!

Rafal Majka used to be the king of the KOMs but in recent years he seems to have fallen back to trying to just land as good a GC place as he can and hasn't got in as many breaks as people expected him to. Having said that, he still loves a breakaway and is still one of the best climbers for a breakaway scenario around. And he's in pretty good form too, finishing 6th in the TOTA and 7th in Catalunya, thanks to good legs in the mountains. 

With dual leadership roles it seems in the team between him and Formolo, will they both be working together to get a good GC placing? Or will one of them be left go up the road whenever he feels like it (more likely to be Majka)? I don't think so, I think they'll ride a controlled race and keep it together until later in the race when they can see how it's shaped, and maybe then go for it in the last few stages, when it might be too late for the KOM. 

MAL, Tom Dumoulin, Vincenzo Nibali, Richard Carapaz - I think they'll all pick up points here and there, but will have total focus on other objectives, until those objectives fall away. Others who could go well - Jan Polanc, Mikel Nieve, Valerio Conti, Matteo Cattaneo, Gianluca Brambilla and Esteban Chaves.. but hard to call any of them with any confidence. 

I think it's wide open again, it's a bit of pot luck with this competition sometimes, but I am happy to keep TDG and Mikel Landa onside as they are both proven KOM hunters and both look in good form coming in to this. Small stakes to start with, might add to it after the first week or so when we see how things are going. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on TDG at 9/1 with William Hill

1pt win on Mikel Landa at 8/1 with various, try to get bigger on Betfair if some liquidity comes in.