Details: Published on Sunday, 20 April 2014 00:43

Flèche Wallone Preview

Bastogne to Mur de Huy

Wednesday 23rd April, 199kms

Hot on the heels of the Amstel Gold we have the two Belgian Ardennes classics - first up is the Flèche Wallone on Wednesday, followed on Sunday by one of the toughest classics of the year in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. First run in 1936, the Fleche missed just one edition during the war in 1940.

Fleche-muur The race is dominated by the finish up the famous Mur de Huy (above), a savage brute of a climb to finish off a tough race. 1.3kms at an average of 9.3% with sections hitting over 24% in places! Go too early and you get swamped by the late finishers like Betancur and Gilbert last year who were passed by Dani Moreno's late burst.

But there's a lot more to the race than just the finishing dash up the Mur. Not only do they climb it twice more earlier in the race, but as they criss-cross between the provinces of Namur and Liege they hit a bunch of other Côtes along the way.

The event was first run on roads from Tournai to Liège, growing from 236km to 300km - its longest ever distance - in 1938 and the route has changed venues and distances many times over the years. There have been four riders who have won this race three times including Eddy Merckx, Moreno Argentin and Davide Rebellin. Davide Rebellin takes to the start again this year going for a record breaking fourth win but there is also previous winners Moreno ('13), Rodriguez ('12), Gilbert ('11) and Valverde ('06) here.

moreno-fleche-2014 Last year saw a brilliant finish when they hit the Mur at a brutally fast pace and Gilbert, Rodriguez and the main favourites led from the front. Suddenly, Betancur exploded through the shot on the left and quickly built up what looked to be an unassailable lead heading in to the final 500m. Then Gilbert went, followed by Sagan and Moreno as Purito struggled to go with the pace.

Henao went after Betancur with a few hundred metres to go, but then Moreno exploded past Gilbert, and caught and passed the tiring Henao and Betancur for a superb victory. One who was very unlucky though was Dan Martin (whom I had backed at something silly like 66/1 I think) - he came from an absolute mile back after getting caught in traffic, to finsh 4th, just pipped by millimetres for 3rd by Betancur. He must have passed 20 guys in the last 150m, better placement would have seen him go very close to winning it.

The Route

They start in Bastogne and head north west in a pretty boring prelude with 84kms of rolling but pretty flat roads until they hit the first côte, the Côte de Bellaire as they enter the finishing loops around Huy. At only a kilometre long at 6.8% average it's a nice warm up for what's to come. If they haven't gone already, it's probably where we will see the first break of the day go or some attempting to bridge across.

This is followed 17km later by the Côte d'Ahin (2.1km at 5.9%) and then the first pass of the Mur de Huy after 111.5kms. They then head off out on the larger loop in green below where they first pass the Côte d'Ereffe (2.2kms at 5.9%) after 124.5kms and then back over the Côte de Bellaire before taking a little detour in to the interior of the loop away from the path of the first passage.

This takes them first over the Côte de Bohisseau which is a tough 7.6% average for 1.3kms and hits sections of over 13% in the first 200m. Just 3kms later they hit the Côte de Bousalle which is a gentler 4.9% over 1.7kms. Then back on to the original route again for the Côte d'Ahin and another passage of the Mur de Huy.

Then the final loop which sees them take the red route below which is just over 24kms long. One more ascent of the Côte d'Ereffe and the final charge up the Mur to the finish.

Route Map

Flech-map

Profile

Fleche-PROFIL

Final 5kms

Fleche-PROFIL-KMS

Contenders and Favourites

Gilbert-celebrates-amstel-victory With his brilliant performance in the Amstel Gold race, Philippe Gilbert will be fancied to complete a hat-trick of victories on Wednesday. This is an altogether different matter though as the gradient to the finish line is far steeper than the Cauberg and it caught him out last year as he was passed with 150m to go by Moreno and ended up in 15th place!

It is a finish that can catch a lot of riders out but can see others who like the steep gradients come from very far back over the closing 200 metres. Just look at where Dan Martin came from in the video above, with 150m to go he was in about 12-15th place, you can see his blue figure bobbing away in the background - he ended up almost taking 3rd, missing by millimetres with a super-impressive surge.

Gilbert though will be riding with a major shot of confidence following his two victories, particularly the manner of victory on Sunday so he should be heavily involved again. Maybe he can wait a little longer this year with his attack and keep his strength for the last 150m when the race is won.

Last year's winner Daniel Moreno is perfectly suited by the steep gradient and warmed up for this with a decent 9th place in Amstel Gold, coming in in the little group of four just 10" back. After a pre-season crash it has taken him a while to get going but the excellent 3rd place in stage 4 of Tirreno, just behind Contador and Valverde showed that the form was coming back. On paper he didn't have a great Catalunya, but he was looking after his team leader and the winner Rodriguez.

With Rodriguez possibly out after crashing again at Amstel, or at least hampered by damaged ribs, Moreno will likely be team leader for the Flèche and will be a strong candidate for the win again. Looking at the odds, Moreno is as short as 15/8 with Bet365 and Rodriguez is 11/1 so it looks like the bookies are thinking the same way too. Skybet are far bigger though at 4/1 for Moreno and I think that's a 'bet to nothing' as they say each-way, that is, he is very likely to be in the first three so the place will pay for the bet, with a free shot at the win part.

Jelle Vanendert (left) was talking confidently ahead of Amstel Gold and we should have listened as he powered away from Valverde and Gerrans to take a great 3rd, he had been as big as 300/1 apparently and about 125/1 on the day to win. He finished 4th in FW in 2012 but down in 39th in 2013. He has said though that he is in far better shape than this time last year and this was clear with his result on Sunday. He could be a dark horse for a big result and is Lotto-Bellisol's best chance and at 20/1 with Bet365 that looks a good each-way bet to me.

**Update - 22/4, 18:50** Lotto Bellisol stated today on their facebook page that Vanendert's knee had swollen up and he had fluid on the knee following a crash he had in Amstel Gold on Sunday. He says himself that's it's sore but that they will wait and see but he wants to ride. Too late for me as I have backed him already, but maybe scale back your stakes if you were going to back him.

3rd last year was Carlos Betancur but I did say to stay clear of him for AG as he is still recovering from illness, just as well as he finished a lowly 65th, almost 3 minutes down. I would recommend giving him a wide berth again on Wednesday. 2nd last year was Sky's Sergio Henao but the less said about him the better!

One very interesting placing last year in 5th was a young Michal Kwiatkowski, following up his fantastic 4th place in AG. He beat Valverde, Rodriguez, Sagan and Ulissi and following another strong showing in this year's AG, taking 5th place he should be right in the mix again given the absence of some leading candidates. The way he skipped away from Sagan on the finishing climb of Strade Bianche shows that he has no problems with the steep gradients and I think he is top 3 material this year.

One of those leading candidates who could be absent could be last year's 4th Dan Martin who abandoned AG with a pain in his knee. He says he was on a bad day and he was feeling a pain in his knee and that he was thinking of the long game with the Giro and other big races to come. His agent tweeted later though that there was 'nothing to worry' and that he was ready for FW and LBL..

Dan Martin abandoned with knee pain but nothing to worry, he's ready for Flèche and LBL!! #AGR
— SEG Cycling (@SEGcycling) April 20, 2014

Hard to know then what to make of that - if he was fully fit and had ridden ok in AG then I think I would have had him as one of my main bets. This knee pain is worrying though, unless of course it's all a big bluff! I'll wait until nearer the time to see updates on the knee before making a decision but it would look prudent to avoid him.

**Update - 22/4, 22:00** - Dan Martin Tweeted this tonight:

Fleche Wallone. Possibly my favourite race of the year. Incredible atmosphere and no hiding on the Muur. Strongest wins #wereready
— Dan Martin (@DanMartin86) April 22, 2014

I'm guessing he means "we're ready" as in he is good to go and happy with the knee, fighting talk with "Strongest wins". Because of the doubt around him he was out to 25/1 with Paddy Power while as short as 13/1 with William Hill. As I said, this finish suits him perfectly and if he can be in the right spot he has a great chance at the win, so I had to take some 25/1 with PP. I also took some 5.7 on Betfair to finish in the top 3.

Valverde seems to sometimes struggle with the very steep gradients and I was very disappointed with his attitude on the Cauberg - he seemed more interested in marking Gerrans than Gilbert's attack and he didn't seem to want to put in the effort to go after him, waiting for others to do it (either that or he just wasn't able to). I won't be backing him Wednesday as I think others have a better chance.

Outsiders? Diego Ulissi was well up there last year taking 13th place and could well put in a big ride again. Bauke Mollema took 9th last year and given his strong finish in AG, when he had his best result yet in 7th place, he is sure to be top 10 again. Samu Sanchez flashed a glimpse of his ability when attacking to plan at the base of the Cauberg, helping set up Gilbert, and he may well be right there coming in to the last 300m. 3rd in 2011 and 4th in 2009 he is well capable of a good showing, but is more likely to be working for Gilbert unless something goes wrong.

Tom Jelte Slagter was disappointing in AG as he missed the break and never came near catching them, coming home in 21st place. He did finish in 14th place though in FW last year and should be top 10 this year, I think he will be looking to make amends for a disappointing AG result as he was one of the favourites.

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Daniel Moreno at 4/1 with Skybet

1.5pts win on Daniel Moreno at 4/1 with Skybet (now 5/2)

0.5pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 20/1 with Bet365