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Published on Wednesday, 14 August 2013 07:43

Eneco Tour Stage 3 Preview

Oosterhout - Brouwersdam, 187.3km

Arnaud Demare showed the cycling world that he is not the 'unknown' rider many described him as after winning the Surrey Classic in London just over a week ago, powering past a resurgent Phil Gilbert to take stage 2 in tremendous style.

This was despite Demare claiming he didn't actually feel good at all at the start of the stage! Phil Gil must have thought he was finally going to break his duck this year as he kicked away up the final 200m. Phil Gil of a year ago, two years ago would not have been caught, but he has lost that extra zip and was passed easily by the 22 year old Frenchman. Tyler Farrar impressed in 3rd place, getting in a great position and powering up the hill, something that is normally not his forte. Coupled with his good showing in stage 1, Farrar might be one to keep an eye on this week. 

Mark Renshaw punctured on the run-in and lost his leader's jersey to Demare, who now leads by 3" from Gilbert. Taylor Phinney had another great result today, with another top 10 finish, and he is only 8" off the lead in 6th place. Given his form at the moment and his TT abilities, coupled with the fact Fat Brad lost more time today (now 5'20" off the lead) then Phinney could well be the man to take the overall this week. He is 5/1 3rd favourite after the Belking Boys - Boom who is 3/1 favourite and Kelderman who is 7/2.

My picks for today didn't work out so good, Breschel inexplicably going on the attack with about 25km to go with Terpstra in chase of the break of the day, but were reeled in far too easily and he was dropped on the final climb. Keukeleire did ok though, finishing 2nd to Greipel in the 'bunch' sprint just after the leading 11.

There isn't much to say about today's stage other than its going to be a fast, flat and possibly windy dash across the Dutch deltas. Cross winds may be about the only thing that might liven this stage up, we've seen already the impact they have had on Wiggins' race.

But there is little question this is going to end in anything other than a bunch sprint, the question is will it be the student or the master, or a younger-still challenger spoiling the great German battle?! Kittel hasn't performed to his best yet in this race whereas Greipel has been riding very strongly. As expected, the hilly finish yesterday pushed the Gorilla out of contention but he did come home best of the rest 5" down. 

Demare has been a revelation in recent weeks, fulfilling some of the promise he has shown and he too cannot be ruled out today. After that there are a whole bunch of 2nd tier sprinters who could get involved, depending on the way the last few kms go, you can't rule out the possibility of a crash in the twisty run-in to Brouwersdam. One rider I think is overpriced though is Tyler Farrar at 28/1. Yes, he has not got the flat out speed of Kittel, yes he seems to crash a lot, but his performances in the first two stages have been eye-catching, notably his power on a finish that normally wouldn't have suited him. 

As for the main battle, based on their form so far this week, I would have to favour Greipel at slightly better odds than Kittel. Kittel seems off the boil (ahem, I'll get my coat...) and at 5/2 versus 2/1 I favour the big man. Tyler Farrar at 28/1 each way is also worth a small investment.