Stage 2

Stage 2

Tuesday August 12th

Waalwijk - Vlijmen, 175.8km

Not a great start then with Nizzolo being taken out by a crash and Greipel sprinting like a chicken again to finish in 12th looking on at the melee up front which was won by Andrea Guardini.. Should have stuck with the form man, I said I wasn't sure how he would go in this company but I guess he found himself in a perfect situation with all the main sprinters out of it.. 

At least Greipel didn't do as bad as Megzec and Bouhanni who both disappointed and I'm glad I steered clear of them. A bright spark though was Tom Dumoulin showing that he is up for it by attacking inside the last kilometre and only just being passed in the last 100m.. He has said that he has a free role to do what he needs to do for the GC and he said today he felt strong while all around him he saw tired faces, so decided he'd take a chance if the opportunity arose. Let's just hope he doesn't wear himself out before the end of the week with fruitless attacks!

Stage two takes in another circuit type with laps of the main circuit to the left hand side and some laps of the 'local circuit' over to the right around Vlijmen. Again, it's a flat stage with little to worry about for the GC men apart from crashing on the many roundabouts and tight turns. There are two roundabouts to negotiate inside the last 1500m, one of which is a sharp left turn, the other straight on. Then with just 600m to go they take a hard right turn on to the finishing straight. Again, like the day before, positioning and lead-out is going to be crucial.   

We saw today the effect that the cross-winds and street furniture had on the race with a number of crashes inside the last 20kms. They're a little further inland this time so the coastal winds mightn't be as bad but there's still going to be quite a breeze coming from the south-west, hitting 15-20mph. This means it'll be in their faces for most of the last 15kms or so. There's also a danger of showers in the afternoon too to add to the danger. Several riders lost a lot of time today already, including Navardauskas and Dennis (5'15"), Steegmans (2'16"), Roelandts (1'19") and Cancellara (18"). Several of the Sky men lost time today but that was because they worked so hard to look after Geraint Thomas during the stage and they certainly looked strong and up for it today. He has shortened in to 5/1 with Bet365 but is still available at 10/1 with PP. Dumoulin has shortened to 9/4 with Bet365 but is 7/2 with PP. 

Taking all the weather news in to account and looking at what happened today, I am staying clear of Greipel tomorrow, learned my lesson today.. he sprinted like he did in some of the TDF stages and he was way too far back starting his sprint once they hit the last 200m, he was never going to make up the ground. This is not a stage for a nervous sprinter I think and I am not backing him, even if he won this stage last year.. He seems a different rider this year..

I'm not touching Mezgec or Bouhanni either I just feel they are not right at the moment. Modolo came down really heavily with 10km to go today so he will be sore tomorrow and I'm not touching him either. That doesn't leave many options then with all that many ruled out already!

Guardini won it well today but I really think that he had an easy ride given the chaos that went before it and that all the main sprinters were out of it. Having said that he took the stage very well and could well be riding on a wave of confidence right now, which we know is a huge help for sprinters. But 4/1 though? Not for me.

I think I am going to stick with Giaccomo Nizollo tomorrow though at a big looking 20/1 - Trek looked good and strong at times today inside the last 10kms but then two crashes totally destroyed their hopes with Nizzolo and Van Poppel being taken out. They have said today that they will be working for Nizzollo tomorrow, but that if things go pear-shaped like they did today, Danny or Boy can sprint also. At 20/1 I am prepared to give him another go as I think he should be able to beat most of these guys on a good day. 

My second bet is simply because the price is too big.. 66/1 for Tyler Farrar.. Sure, I know, I probably have more chance of winning this sprint tomorrow, but he was unlucky not to get closer today I feel. He was positioned in the best possible wheel theoretically (Greipel's) as Greipel started to wind up his sprint, albeit too late, but Farrar couldn't have foreseen that when he thought to himself 'Get on Greipel's Wheel!'.. But then just as he went to follow Greipel through Trusov of Tinkoff-Saxo cut across him and nearly knocked in to him, he had to stop his sprint and that was the end of that. He finished in 20th, but I think he can do better. At 66/1, he might just surprise me tomorrow. 

One final one to add this morning, Lars Boom comes from Vlijmen and last year in the stage that finished in Vlijmen he took 3rd in the sprint behind Greipel (and Nizzolo, Farrar was 6th that day too). The bonuses he picked up put him in the yellow jersey by just one second. He looked up for a fight yesterday sprinting to bonus seconds in the last 20kms and he may well try to get in the mix again today. At 66/1 he is worth a small interest. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Giaccomo Nizzollo at 20/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Farrar at 66/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Lars Boom at 66/1 with Skybet

Debusschere to beat Griepel - 1pt at 7/4

 

Map

Finish

Stage 3

Stage 3

Wednesday 13th August

Breda-Breda - ITT, 9.6km

It was utter chaos again today at the Eneco with the wind, rain, road furniture and nervous riders combining to cause carnage. Dumoulin looked in big trouble with 20km to go after a puncture,  but a 6-man TTT followed by a solo time trial by Tomdum got him back on just in the nick of time. He still lost 24" to stage winner Zdenek Stybar and a lot of stress and energy ahead of his big test in the TT. 

The good news was the late addition of Boom to my selections at 66/1 almost paid off big, with him just losing out to Stybar in the sprint. Kudos to Nicky Ross though for mentioning he was 66/1, it got me thinking about him and agreeing with the suggestion.. 

An out and back time trial on a practically flat course, with very few tricky turns and obstacles. The top TT'ers should be able to cover this in about 12 minutes or less so it's going to be over very quickly! It's a little too short for the good TT'ers to really be able to put big time in to the average TT'ers who are looking for overall victory, but you would still think that the likes of Cancellara and Dumoulin can put some time in to the non-TT'ers. 

Dumoulin was one I was thinking about for this before the race started and was even more confident about him after seeing how strong he was in stage 1, and how Cancellara had a hard day working and lost time in the end through crashes holding him up.. Then today there was real drama for Dumoulin as his puncture 20km from home could have ended his race there and then. Thanks to some friendly cars and a dedicated team effort, he managed to get back on with not as much energy used up as he may have done.

This race is a big target for him. He is in great shape at the moment and recently the only guy who seems to beat him is Tony Martin. This shorter TT will suit him fine - he won the 7km TT in the Criterium International earlier in the year. As long as today's chase back didn't take too much out of him then I think he is a strong favourite and the 9/4 with Paddy Power should be taken.

Fabian Cancellara is using this race as a prep for the World's as far as I am concerned and may not have the race fitness to really be able to challenge like he might if this was say in the Tour de France. He has won the Tirreno TT earlier this year and the short course is right up his street. What made my mind up with regards his chances though was the quote from Dirk Demol - “Tomorrow is a bit short for specialists like Fabian and Jesse, but anyway we will give it a go, we have to!  We will make the best of it.” That doesn't sound like the words of a confident man! He should be able to make it in the top 5 but I wouldn't be surprised if he was outside the top 3. He did beat Dumoulin by 10" over a pan-flat 9.4km course in Tirreno but I think Dumoulin could turn the tables on him tomorrow. 

Alex Dowsett loves these short TTs of course and he sits as 3rd favourite in the betting for tomorrow. Brilliant winner of the Commonwealth Games TT just two weeks ago, he is clearly in good shape. Riding strong at the front yesterday and today, staying out of trouble, he looks fit and well. In that TT in Tirreno that Cancellara beat Dumoulin in, Dowsett was behind both of them in 6th.

Lars Boom is in pole position at the moment in terms of the likely wearer of the leaders jersey tomorrow night, as he should be able to beat Stybar by one second! With that motivation and the fact that he looks in very good shape too (his power at the finish today was impressive) then I think he can put in a very big ride. 3rd place at best for me though, I can't see him beating Dumoulin. Rohan Dennis, the TT nearly man varies from 5/1 to 14/1 for tomorrow and it's hard to know what Rohan will turn up tomorrow.  I think though that Dennis at his best should be able to take a top 3 here but I'm not prepared to take a punt on that!

Other than that, you have the likes of Geraint Thomas, who is in great form at the moment and needs to make up time lost; Jesse Sergent who is very powerful over these sorts of courses; Hepburn and Cummings who could do a big ride on a good day too, but are 5th - 10th men I think. 

Putting all that together then, I think Dumoulin will win it from Dennis and Dowsett with Cancellara in fourth. 

Full Start Time list is just below the maps.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 9/4 with Paddy Power

1pt on Rohan Dennis to beat Geraint Thomas at evens with Bet365

Dennis to beat Thomas, Cancellara to beat Boom and Dumoulin to beat Dowsett - 1pt on a treble that pays 3.4/1 at Bet365

 

Map

 

Finish

  

 

Eneco TourStage 3

Start Order

Time        Rider         Team
13:50:00 HUFFMAN Evan AST
13:51:00 HOWSON Damien OGE
13:52:00 DYACHENKO Alexandr AST
13:53:00 DUCHESNE Antoine EUC
13:54:00 CUMMINGS Stephen BMC
13:55:00 GOSS Matthew OGE
13:56:00 MOSER Moreno CAN
13:57:00 SABATINI Fabio CAN
13:58:00 BETTIOL Alberto CAN
13:59:00 EARLE Nathan SKY
14:00:00 MARTINEZ Yannick EUC
14:01:00 MARINO Jean Marc CAN
14:02:00 NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas GRS
14:03:00 HAAS Nathan GRS
14:04:00 BURGHARDT Marcus BMC
14:05:00 DOCKX Gert LTB
14:06:00 DE TROYER Tim WGG
14:07:00 DANIEL Maxime ALM
14:08:00 OSS Daniel BMC
14:09:00 PICHON Laurent FDJ
14:10:00 VAUGRENARD Benoît FDJ
14:11:00 SMUKULIS Gatis KAT
14:12:00 DENNIS Rohan BMC
14:13:00 VAN MELSEN Kevin WGG
14:14:00 HEPBURN Michael OGE
14:15:00 BONIFAZIO Niccolo LAM
14:16:00 SOUPE Geoffrey FDJ
14:17:00 BULGAC Brian GIA
14:18:00 STAMSNIJDER Tom GIA
14:19:00 LAMOISSON Morgan EUC
14:20:00 POZZATO Filippo LAM
14:21:00 DEBUSSCHERE Jens LTB
14:22:00 VAN POPPEL Danny TFR
14:23:00 GRETSCH Patrick ALM
14:24:00 POLANC Jan LAM
14:25:00 STANNARD Ian SKY
14:26:00 ALAFACI Eugenio TFR
14:27:00 GOUGEARD Alexis ALM
14:28:00 KEISSE Iljo OPQ
14:29:00 NIZZOLO Giacomo TFR
14:30:00 PETROV Evgeny TCS
14:31:00 KAMYSHEV Arman AST
14:32:00 IGLINSKIY Valentin AST
14:33:00 JANSE VAN RENSBURG R. GIA
14:34:00 LAMPAERT Yves TSV
14:35:00 TLEUBAYEV Ruslan AST
14:36:00 DECLERCQ Tim TSV
14:37:00 NAULEAU Bryan EUC
14:38:00 IGNATYEV Mikhail KAT
14:39:00 ROVNI Ivan TCS
14:40:00 CURVERS Roy GIA
14:41:00 GESCHKE Simon GIA
14:42:00 TRENTIN Matteo OPQ
14:43:00 VAN STAEYEN Michael TSV
14:44:00 VEELERS Tom GIA
14:45:00 LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo MOV
14:46:00 BOUCHER David FDJ
14:47:00 ROWE Luke SKY
14:48:00 CHAINEL Steve ALM
14:49:00 VAN EMDEN Jos BEL
14:50:00 STEEGMANS Gert OPQ
14:51:00 KNEES Christian SKY
14:52:00 VEUCHELEN Frederik WGG
14:53:00 MOURIS Jens OGE
14:54:00 RICHEZE M. LAM
14:55:00 LEEZER Thomas BEL
14:56:00 HAYMAN Mathew OGE
14:57:00 ROJAS GIL J. MOV
14:58:00 VAN POPPEL Boy TFR
14:59:00 DEVOLDER Stijn TFR
15:00:00 KOCHETKOV Pavel KAT
15:01:00 ROELANDTS Jurgen LTB
15:02:00 TCATEVICH Alexsei KAT
15:03:00 NUYENS Nick GRS
15:04:00 MILLAR David GRS
15:05:00 SERGENT Jesse TFR
15:06:00 SUTTON Christopher SKY
15:07:00 VAN BILSEN Kenneth TSV
15:08:00 SIEBERG Marcel LTB
15:09:00 BAGDONAS Gediminas ALM
15:10:00 KERN Julian ALM
15:11:00 DILLIER Silvan BMC
15:12:00 SANZ Enrique MOV
15:13:00 QUINTANA Dayer MOV
15:14:00 ROUX Anthony FDJ
15:15:00 BAUER Jack GRS
15:16:00 CANCELLARA Fabian TFR
15:17:00 VAN KEIRSBULCK G. OPQ
15:18:00 MARKUS Barry BEL
15:19:00 BOASSON HAGEN Edvald SKY
15:20:00 KOLÁR Michal TCS
15:21:00 SPRENGERS Thomas TSV
15:22:00 PICHOT Alexandre EUC
15:23:00 VAN BAARLE Dylan GRS
15:24:00 GASTAUER Ben ALM
15:25:00 STEELS Stijn TSV
15:26:00 HOWARD Leigh OGE
15:27:00 KROON Karsten TCS
15:28:00 DRUCKER Jean-Pierre WGG
15:29:00 VENTOSO ALBERDI F. MOV
15:30:00 HONDO Danilo TFR
15:31:00 JEROME Vincent EUC
15:32:00 PUCCIO Salvatore SKY
15:33:00 FAVILLI Elia LAM
15:34:00 VANENDERT Jelle LTB
15:35:00 TANKINK Bram BEL
15:36:00 VAN HOECKE Gijs TSV
15:37:00 BOZIC Borut AST
15:38:00 WELLENS Tim LTB
15:39:00 MCCARTHY Jay TCS
15:40:00 HUREL Tony EUC
15:41:00 BRESCHEL Matti TCS
15:42:00 LANGEVELD Sebastian GRS
15:43:00 OFFREDO Yoann FDJ
15:44:00 THOMAS Geraint SKY
15:45:00 JEANNESSON Arnold FDJ
15:46:00 SÜTTERLIN Jasha MOV
15:47:00 DUMOULIN Tom GIA
15:48:00 FARRAR Tyler GRS
15:49:00 DOWSETT Alex MOV
15:50:00 APPOLLONIO Davide ALM
15:51:00 MORI Manuele LAM
15:52:00 VAN AVERMAET Greg BEL
15:53:00 CIMOLAI Davide LAM
15:54:00 WAEYTENS Zico TSV
15:55:00 KUZNETSOV Viacheslav KAT
15:56:00 BOUHANNI Nacer FDJ
15:57:00 MEZGEC Luka GIA
15:58:00 GREIPEL André LTB
15:59:00 DE VREESE Laurens WGG
16:00:00 GENE Yohann EUC
16:01:00 SELVAGGI Mirko WGG
16:02:00 WYNANTS Maarten BEL
16:03:00 LONGO BORGHINI Paolo CAN
16:04:00 TERPSTRA Niki OPQ
16:05:00 PORSEV Alexandr KAT
16:06:00 GUARDINI Andrea AST
16:07:00 KOREN Kristijan CAN
16:08:00 BROECKX Stig LTB
16:09:00 QUINZIATO Manuel BMC
16:10:00 MOLLEMA Bauke BEL
16:11:00 VERMOTE Julien OPQ
16:12:00 GRIVKO Andriy AST
16:13:00 BOONEN Tom OPQ
16:14:00 GUTIERREZ PALACIOS J. MOV
16:15:00 KEUKELEIRE Jens OGE
16:17:00 KRUOPIS Aidis OGE
16:19:00 JANS Roy WGG
16:21:00 TRUSOV Nikolay TCS
16:23:00 MARCATO Marco CAN
16:25:00 GILBERT Philippe BMC
16:27:00 BRUTT Pavel KAT
16:29:00 VANMARCKE Sep BEL
16:31:00 BOOM Lars BEL
16:33:00 STYBAR Zdenek OPQ

 

Stage 4

Stage 4

Thursday August 14th

Koksijde - Ardooie, 183.3kms

Tom Dumoulin justified the confidence and support today as he stormed to a brilliant stage win, his first win on the World Tour. Cancellara had set what looked like an unbeatable time, knocking 13" off the previous best time but Dumoulin bested it with a real powerhouse ride to possibly signal a changing of the guard with Dumoulin..

Dennis and Dowsett put in two disappointing rides with Dennis losing 10" to Thomas in the match bet who did very well to finish on the podium in 3rd place, just 10" behind Dumoulin. It also cost the treble with the other two matches winning. It was a good day for the GC chances of Thomas and Dumoulin though and they are firmly back in contention. With only 21" covering the top 10 it is still all to play for - the betting reflects this with Stybar just holding favouritism at 5/2, with Boom, Dumoulin and Gilbert between 9/2 and 6/1. Thomas is just below them at 8/1 generally but is almost twice that at 14/1 with Paddy Power for some reason.

On to stage 4 then and they start in the seaside town of Koksijde where they do a little loop of the town and then head south and in to the countryside as far as Voormezele before heading back north-east towards the finishing town of Ardooie. Once they arrive in the town they take in two laps of a 15.4km circuit. This time though at least the finish is umcomplicated with no roundabouts or bends to contend with inside the final kilometre. There is a high chance of thunderstorms and a tail wind heading towards Ardooie and it should be a cross/tail win in the sprint to the line. 

I gave up on André Greipel on stage 2 but I am going to flip sides tomorrow and back him again despite the possible wet conditions. We're in Belgium for the first time so Lotto-Belisol are on home turf. The finishing circuit is pretty straight-forward with just one sharp left turn with about 1200m to go and a lot more suited to a train setting things up than the first stages, which were just chaos. L-B are probably the best team here to deliver Greipel to the last 200m to let him do his thing. He is best at this sort of finish where he can unleash his power off the last wheel of his powerful lead-out train and just use his brute strength to stop anyone coming around him.

He did a reasonably good TT too today showing that the power is there (46th) and I think he and L-B will be eager to make amends tomorrow. At 3/1 I think he is worth backing, if this was the first stage without seeing what has gone on in the first two stages he'd probably be closer to 7/4. 

Nacer Bouhanni is on paper probably his biggest danger but I'm not a big fan of him or his attitude and I don't want to be backing him at 5/1. Guardini proved on stage 2 that when things get a bit chaotic that he still has a lot to learn about positioning etc and it will be interesting to see how he goes tomorrow in what should be a more straightforward sprint against the top sprinters.

Luca Mezgec might find himself having to work for and look after Tom Dumoulin tomorrow now that he is back in the GC hunt, and even if he doesn't I think he could find himself left to his own devices as the rest of the team will be looking after TomDum. It is also possible that Mezgec might be asked to lead out Dumoulin in the sprint in a hunt for bonus seconds. Because of these doubts and the fact he hasn't really done as well as he should in sprints in a while I am leaving him. He finished 1'08" down in the TT today which was a pretty awful time, there is either a lack of power there or he was saving himself, but Greipel showed that with power and determination it was still possible to do an ok TT without overdoing it.. 

Again there are loads of others who could get involved, but at 33/1 I had to have another go at Giaccomo Nizzolo. He hasn't had a chance yet to show what he can do and maybe tomorrow on a more straight-forward sprint he can get close at a big price. 

Recommendations:

2.5pts win on Greipel at 3/1 with Bet365 (has been cut to 2/1 with Bet365 but there is now 7/2 available on Betfair and that should be taken. If you don't have Betfair, Ladbrokes are 5/2)

0.5pts each-way on Giaccomo NIzzolo at 33/1 with Bet365 

Stybar to beat Boom - 1pt @ 8/11

Match-bet treble - 1pt on Bouhanni to beat Mezgec, Greipel to beat Guardini and Porsev to beat Gene - pays 9/4 with Bet365 

Bets added in play when Greipel abandoned - tweeted out at 3.09pm. 2pts on Bouhanni and 1pt each on the finishing positions bets.

Taking a saver on Bouhanni at 7/4 in-play, most likely winner now you'd think. Also Mezgec 4th-9th at 15/8 and Gene 10th or worse at 4/6

— Ian (@Cyclingbetting) August 14, 2014

 

Map

Finish

 

Stage 5

Stage 5

Friday 15th August 2014

Geraardsbergen - Geraardsbergen, 162.5kms

Funny day today. Chaotic day once again. It started badly when Greipel pulled out very early in the stage with a stomach illness, knocking my bets out without even half the stage gone. It really pissed me off that he started the stage if he was that ill that he had to abandon so early. Why start? By starting he made all the bets losers instead of being just voided if he didn't start. 

Just after 3pm I decided to get with Bouhanni as he now had a great chance as far as I was concerned, Greipel and L-B were out of the way and it would possibly be a bit more disorganised and he could take advantage. I had 2pts @ 7/4. I also had 1pt each on Mezgec to finish 4th-9th and Gene to finish worse than 10th. Luckily Bouhanni won to pocket 3.5pts as the other two lost with Mezgec taking 2nd and Gene 8th! But what was more satisfying was Nizzolo justifying my faith in him to take 3rd place and land the each-way money at 33/1. It was a funny sprint from him, he seemed to get going very, very late, long after Bouhanni had jumped, but he got up in the end. Bouhanni gave him a little nudge to get out and it seemed to throw him and put him off his sprint for a few seconds.. The end result was a profit of 0.625pts! 

Stybar crashing out in spectacular fashion has seen another shake-up in the betting for the overall, making it even tighter at the top - Dumoulin is now the 3/1 favourite with Boom 7/2, Thomas 4/1 and Gilbert 5/1.. incredibly tight. My two men are looking good though so fingers crossed we get one of them at least in the top 3.. 

Stage 5 - now this is a proper days racing finally! A route that takes them around Ronse, Oudenaarde and other locations better known from the Tour of Flanders, it's a proper Belgian Classics type of stage with 13 cols to get over including twice up the Mur de Geraardsbergen during the race and for the finale also. The Mur is sadly missed now from the Tour of Flanders  after it was removed a few years back but we'll get to see them tackle it three times in all today!

They also take in the Kruisberg, one of the climbs from the Tour of Flanders as they come out of Ronse, a steep bumpy cobbled climb.. 

The finish is going to be fast and furious as they charge downhill for the last few kilometres to the bottom of the finishing climb up to the Mur de Geraardsbergen, which is about 600m long and a very famous road indeed, up past the church to the finish line. The climb itself in it's entirety is just over a kilometre at 9.3% average but they are not going the whole way up on the final ascent. 

Although it's a little short for a proper Classic type stage at just 165.8kms, it's a stage for the classics riders and the puncheurs and could go a long way to deciding the winner as there could be time gaps opened all over the place on this finish. It's a really tricky finish with tight bends and turns all over the last 4kms so positioning is going to be so crucial in the run in to the bottom of the Mur for the final time. Then it's every man for himself in the charge to the line.

This circuit has been used for the last two years with Stybar attacking and bridging to Stannard before skipping away from him before the finish last year to seal victory on the final day and in 2012 Ballan and Boom escaped from the peloton with Ballan taking the victory but Boom taking the overall with the time gained.

The weather forecast is pretty awful with rain foreceast all day and temperatures only reaching 15% - it'll feel like a spring classic in that sense! But then again there was rain forecast today and they managed to escape it. The wind is not too much to worry about with a little tailwind up the Muur.  

On a tough day like this, a mini Tour of Flanders you could call it, there will be big interest in getting in the early break of the day. Teams will want to have multiple cards to play tomorrow and after all, Stannard almost survived from the early break of the day last year, with only Stybar beating him, so breaks could make it.. We could see BMC send the likes of Oss up the road, Stannard or Boasson Hagen from Sky, Keukeleire for OGE, Langeveld or Van Baarle for Garmin and lots of possible candidates from the pro-continental teams.. lots of candidates so I won't try and pick one, as I think it will come down to a GC battle - there are too many still in close contention, all the teams will be on a charge over the last 30kms. 

BMC are going to be a big influence on tomorrow's stage I believe. They have Van Avermaet who will love this course, Cummings, Burghardt, Dillier, Oss and of course Philippe Gilbert, the favourite for the stage. Gilbert surprised everyone with his powerful ride in the Ride London Surrey Classic on Sunday, he bossed the break and ultimately undid the likes of Bennett with his attack in to Wimbledon. Three times Amstel Gold Champion, Liege-Bastogne-Liege Champion, World Champion, all on these kinds of roads, he is bound to be a key player once again. 

He sits in 11th place but only 21" behind Boom and will be sure to feature towards the end of this stage. I have a little worry about him though.. I may be calling this completely wrong but I'm worried he might have lost some of his explosiveness that he will need to win this stage tomorrow. Yes, he was strong in London but when the jump came at the end he seemed to have nothing left. He has also not raced a lot this summer due to illness and he could struggle a little towards the end here. Famous last words maybe... but at 9/2 I'm not hugely interested in him.

Greg Van Avermaet will be interesting to watch tomorrow - will he be tasked with looking after PhilGil or will he have a free role to do what he can? He too is only 34" back so is still almost as much in the GC hunt as Gilbert is. He too is in great form and his 2nd in Flanders shows how much he loves these roads. One to watch for sure at 14/1. BMC also have Manuel Quinziato who finished 4th here last year and is in great form at the moment - if Gilbert or GVA find themselves out of the hunt he could well be a big danger again. At 40/1 he could go close. 

Sep Vanmarcke would have been one of my favourites for this stage - he has been riding really well and looks very fired up for this race. He has shown in the classics this year that he is tailor made for this sort of terrain and put in some fantastic performances, Tour of Flanders 3rd being one of them. He did a surprisingly good TT and was to the fore with his 2nd place in stage 2 showing the legs are good. He will fly up the Mur you'd think normally, but there's one crucial thing to bear in mind - he was hit on the arm in Stybar's crash today. He was taken for scans afterwards which revealed no breaks but it could hamper him tomorrow on such a hard, brutal finish. At 8/1 I think it's a tough one to call as we don't really know how handicapped he will be with a sore arm.

Of course Belkin have more than one card to play, with Lars Boom needing to gain time before the tougher, hillier stages at the weekend. He should be near the front hitting the final climb, but will he have the explosive power? I'm not sure - he has finished 2nd and 3rd on this stage but that shows that he is strong but hasn't quite been good enough. It may be the same again tomorrow. Mollema can put in a big show too but his TT performance doesn't leave me filled with confidence that he is in tip-top form at the moment. 

Fabian Cancellara is pretty short as well around 11/2, but then again he is the Tour of Flanders champion (3 times) and is a master of these kinds of races. He showed strong power in the TT to almost win it and also put in a big turn at the front with 1km to go today - it looked for a while like Nizzolo would get an armchair ride to the line, but as soon as Cancellara pulled off their charge died. He is at the same time as Gilbert, just 24" back and I think he could be a real danger tomorrow. The only doubt would be the lack of racing also and potential lack of explosive power as a result. 

Geraint Thomas is also going to be one to watch tomorrow - if it's a tough, wet day like they had for the Commonwealth Games he could be in his element. An explosive attack like he made to get away and win is what he needs tomorrow and he showed some great form in the spring classics (and in the TDF stage over the cobbles) so he should go very well tomorrow I think. Expect Stannard to put in some big turns for Thomas to get him to the bottom of the Mur in the right place. 16/1 with Bet365 looks a bit interesting but he may have to settle for 2nd to 5th possibly, and as I am cheering him on for the GC I'm not going to back him tomorrow.. don't let that put you off backing him though if you fancy him. 

OPQS have several cards to play tomorrrow too with Terpstra, Boonen, Steegmans, Van Keirsbulck and Vermote. Terpstra, winner of Paris Roubaix had an excellent spring campaign and is a very powerful rider. Tom Boonen is a legend of the cobbles and has had the sort of explosive power to blow this to pieces on the Mur.. Time is catching up with Tom though and I don't think he'll get away from them all tomorrow, although he should be capable of a top 10. I think the other three will be working hard for him though to get him in the right position, or possibly one will be in the break of the day, such as Van Keirsbulck.

Finally, two at big-ish prices.. One that is flying at the moment is young Jens Keukeleire - 6th in the TDF stage to Arenberg Port de Hainault, 9th in Dwaars Door Vlaanderen, he likes a cobbled Berg it seems. He could well be one of the explosive guys who can get away from some of the older guys! At 28/1 he can be involved at the finish. Secondly, Jelle Vanendert took a good 6th in the Clasica San Sebastian recently, he was also 2nd in Amstel Gold, 6th in La Fleche and 11th in Liege, he likes this sort of terrain and his San Sebastian result shows his legs are coming back after an indifferent summer. At 40/1 he could be one of those at the front of the charge up the hill. 

I think it might be just a bit too explosive for Dumoulin, but he is riding so well at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if he attacked before the Mur and held them off.. He may look to play it more defensively tomorrow and save himself for a tough weekend. We could also see the likes of Navardauskas, Geschke and Marcato in the mix, it really could be a fascinating last 4kms or so. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 40/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Jens Keukeleire at 28/1 with Bet365

Jelle Vanendert to beat Bauke Mollema - 1pt at 5/6 with Bet365

 

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Stage 6

Stage 6

Saturday August 16th

Heerlen - Aywaille, 173.9kms 

A very good day today with the race going almost as predicted. Greg Van Avermaet was a magnificent winner with a brilliant late surge which carried him clear to victory. BMC were brilliant today with everyone from Gilbert, Quinziato and Dillier all doing their part to stretch Belkin, OGE and all the others. Boom, Boonen, Gilbert and Vanmarcke just didn't have it in the end with Dumoulin proving the next best with a fantastic late sprint to get up for second to take hold of the leaders jersey. It is going to be hard to prise it away from him now as he is in fantastic shape and Boom, his closest rival should struggle in the next two stages.

Thomas gave it a brave effort and looed for a while like he might take 2nd or 3rd but as he put it himself "Went from Hero to Zero in the final 200m today!! Probably heard the explosion back in Wales!! #Bang #Stillinit". And he still is in it as he sits in 5th place, just 21" back. Vanendert landed the match bet against a woeful Mollema who finished over 10 minutes down so the profit on the day was a very nice 18.36pts, to bring the total for the week to around +20pts.

Stage 6 Sees them head to the east of Belgium in to Liege-Bastogne-Liege country for a tough day in the saddle. 10 categorised climbs in all, with them tackling the climb of La Redoute three times in total. La Redoute is of course used in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and is usually one of the hills that causes splits and changes.

They start up in the north at Heerlen and do a little loop around the town taking in the climb of the Bergseweg twice before heading south west to the finishing loop. Along the way they pass five more climbs before arriving at the foot of La Redoute for the first time. This 2.3km climb can blow things apart as its average gradient of 7.4% after 105km of fast racing can be a real leg-breaker. After desceding off it they take in a succession of quick climbs inside the next 20kms including the Fraiture, Chambralles and Niaster. Then back on to the circuit again to do it once more.

The finish is on La Redoute but at the bottom of it rather than the top, with just a little kick up for them to contend with. It's a funny finish with a sharp left turn only about 100m from the finish line. Philippe Gilbert comes from the area, and after his impressive showing in the Ride Surrey Classic he may well feature prominently on this stage. He worked hard for the team today with Van Avermaet reaping the benefits when he exploded away on the Mur. Gilbert of old would have been my favourite for this stage and the bookies think he is still the Gilbert of old, especially poor old BetVictor who make him a ridiculous 11/4 for the stage despite losing time on the TT and not being good at the finish today. For those reason, even the 5/1 with Bet365 doesn't really grab me, in fact I think Van Avermaet to beat Gilbert at evens looks a good match bet. 

Greg Van Avermaet was super impressive today. I thought he had blown it by attacking on the penultimate climb of the Denderoordberg when he strung things out but he regathered himself and his finishing kick was superb - De Vreese and Brut looked to be home and hosed as they swept through the bends of the Mur, but he flew past them like they were stuck in the big ring. He kicked again and held off a charging Dumoulin.

He showed in the Sheffield stage of the TDF that a day like today should hold him no fears, it was described as being like L-B-L and so is this stage. I think he will be right there at the finish as they charge towards the final hill and his explosive kick will make him very hard to beat. It just depends on whether they make him work for a Gilbert win in his home race, but I think he is going so much better than Gilbert at the moment he has to be backed by the team. With time bonuses on every passage of the Redoute and on the finish line he could put himself right in the mix going in to the last stage. His confidence will have been lifted to new levels after his first big win since his stage win in the Tour of Utah, just over a year ago. At 7/1 I think he is a solid bet for a top 3 finish at worst.

Tom Dumoulin looked fantastic to me at the finish today. Caught in a bad position earlier in the race, the commentators were getting excited that he had lost ground the penultimate time up the Mur when the split with Boom and Gilbert happened, but he was probably just caught out of position, as the same thing seemed to happen him on the last climb. He came from a mile back and passed a load of riders in the sprint to the line, when he seemed to be the only rider actually sprinting proper, the rest were out on their feet. 

He should be ok on terrain like this and will have Curvers, Van Rensberg and Geschke to look after him again, two strong Ardennes type men. If they come to the final climb with a favourites group and no one has escaped up the road, he has to be a strong favourite for the sprint up the hill. I think at 7/1 he too has to be backed for a big shot at victory that should set him up for the overall victory on Sunday. He said after today's stage that the leader's jersey was not his target today but the stage victory was - 

"Before the stage it was not my goal to become leader today but I wanted to go for the victory as I felt really good. I was the fastest over the final 500m in the bunch but I was slightly out of position at the bottom of the climb and Greg was too far ahead already.I feel in superb condition – the Tour did me good and I hope to hold onto the overall lead now after today."

Geraint Thomas was looking good today but just faded at the end and it could be a bit of the same tomorrow - today I predicted 5th place, I was just two places out.. I think he will be 5th to 10th again tomorrow. Vanmarcke was active today and did his best to try to split things up but it looked half-hearted at times and either the legs aren't 100% or the arm injury is indeed hampering him as I thought it might in avoiding him today. Tomorrow isn't a day for him though and the 40/1 on him reflects that.

I backed Jelle Vanendert today at 40/1 and he did ok, finishing in the front group who were 6" behind GVA. He is an incredibly short 10/1 with WillHill tomorrow and just 7/1 with Bet365! I would want 25/1 + to take him on again I think so even though he will like these hills and this finish, that price isn't for me.

I think Lars Boom might struggle with the explosive finishers again though so I'm not backing him. Matti Breschel showed today that he is still in great shape and was one of the fastest up the Mur but just faded at the end. He could feature again tomorrow. Tim Wellens goes well on these sorts of courses too as does Marcato and Diller. Cancellara might find the finish a bit too fast for him again. Jens Keukeleire rode very well today and was prominent at the front for long periods. In the end at the finish he didn't quite have the legs and I expect a similar ride tomorrow. 

Finally, a few out and out climbers to look out for - Arnold Jeannesson came out of the Tour in great shape, when he was a key ally for Pinot in the last week in the mountains. It will be interesting to see how he goes on a lumpy stage like this. Ramunas Navardauskas is a big looking 125/1 and another interesting runner is Quintana.. no, not Nairo, he's busy in Burgos, his younger brother Dayer, who took his first pro victory recently in the Tour of Austria. If a break does make it tomorrow (which it did last year) he could be a candidate for the break at 66/1. I think though we could have a similar stage today with super-fast, agressive racing that reels in the break in time for a GC showdown. Dumoulin and Van Avermaet may well go head-to-head once again. 

Recommendations:

Greg Van Avermaet - 1pt e/w at 9/1 with William Hill

Tom Dumoulin - 1pt e/w at 6/1 with Bet365

Greg Van Avermaet to beat Gilbert at evens - 2pts with Bet365

Dumoulin to beat Gilbert, Vanendert to beat Wellens and Dumoulin to beat Thomas - 1pt on the treble which pays 7/2 with Bet365.

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Stage 7

Stage 7

Sunday 17th August

Riemst - Sittard Geleen, 183.4kms

Stage 7 sees them head north from Maastricht and in to Holland for a stage not too dissimilar to a course like Amstel Gold with lots and lots of climbs to negotiate all day, 17 in total. The route weaves and zig-zags its way east, then north on a course that seems to be constantly changing direction. 

With 55km to go, and after cresting 13 Cols already they head on to a closing circuit around Sittard-Geleen which includes the climb of the Cote de Windraak with 4kms to go. From the top of the Windraak it is a fast descent for 3kms or so before a fast sprint finish, with only a sharp left turn with about 400m to go to slow them down on what should be a very fast finish. 

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