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Published on Thursday, 22 March 2018 16:25

E3 Harelbeke

Friday 23rd March, 206.4kms

The E3 Harelbeke kicks off the 'Flanders Week' on Friday with Gent Wevelgem coming up on Sunday and the daddy of the Belgian Classics, the Ronde Van Vlaanderen on April 1st.  

The E3 Harelbeke has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, now known as the A14, but the race keeps the name. It is sometimes referred to as the 'baby Flanders' and is a fantastic preparation for the Ronde as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs, including the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont, althought they do them in reverse order in the E3.

Last year's race was fantastic, with Tom Boonen blowing the race apart, as is his wont, on the Taaienberg with 72.5kms to go, taking a select group of about 20 with him that included Sagan, Oss, Naesen, Gilbert, GVA and Vanmarcke. The gaps were really small, but Boonen kept the pressure on, and when Gilbert and Naesen just eased themselves off the front with 69kms to go, only GVA reacted, and we suddenly had the three strongest Belgians with a small gap. 

Postleberger for Bora bridged, Sagan played games behind, not wanting to be leaned upon again to close the gap. Vanmarcke came across with the help of Van Asbroeck who had been in the original break, along with Modolo and Durbridge, while behind Oss and Stybar formed a roadblock at the head of the chase and slowed everything down. 

Gilbert, GVA and Naesen never let up though, even if it was still 65kms to go, the gap remained small for a while, Sagan made an effort to bridge, Trentin marked him, he then gave up and suddenly the race was as good as over. Modolo got dropped on the Eikenberg, and we were down to six. With 38kms to go they hit the Kwaremont and Naesen put the hammer down and only Gilbert and GVA could go with him and that was the final selection decided. 

On the Teigemberg with 19kms to go Gilbert attacked, GVA marked but Naesen really struggled and he had to fight for his life for 2kms to get back on, but he just managed it. It was almost like a track finish as they came in to the last 500m, but finally Naesen went with 250m to go and almost made it, but GVA and Gilbert came past him. It was just another win in a brilliant season for GVA, but also showed just how strong Gilbert was, a warning sign ahead of Flanders, and also showed Naesen was continuing his upward curve as a force to be reckoned with in Belgium.

Kwiatkowski won in 2016, making it two wins in a row for Team Sky, following Geraint Thomas's superb win in 2015, while Sagan took victory in 2014. Fabian Cancellara was a brilliant winner in 2013, simply riding off the front of a quality leading group with 35kms to go at the top of the Kwaremont, similar to how Thomas rode away from them all with Stybar in 2015. Sagan has been 2nd in 2016, 2nd in 2013, 1st in 2014 and should have been 3rd in 2015 but he tied up so badly in the last 4kms he was caught and passed by the chasers.

The Route

A slightly different, but still very similar course as before - an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 120kms. It is the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to fracture all ove the countryside over the last 100kms. 

The Katteberg, which was the first climb for the last two years, is out this year, with the Wolvenberg replacing it as the first obstacle of the day after 28.5kms. They pass through Geraardsbergen but don't go over the Muur, and the next obstacle doesn't arrive until 93kms in with the climb of La Houppe. There are then thirteen more Hellingen to get over in the 94kms between La Houpe after 93kms and the Tiegemberg which comes with just 18.5kms to go. It's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 134km gone that things really start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m usually causes the first real significant splits in any race that goes over it. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 2.8kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made, a reverse order to what they do in the Ronde, when the Kwaremont comes first.

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% and is particularly steep and rough near the top, while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. You reach the top of the Kwaremont near the cafe and could be forgiven for thinking that might be it, but the hill keeps going for more than a kilometre after that and the cobbles are particularly rough in the last 500m. It's sometimes the case that the real gaps are made in this section as some riders are on the limit after the pitch up to the cafe and the stronger men press on over the rough last 500m. 

The 30kms between the Kapelberg and the Tiegemberg will be crucial though, as it takes them over the Paterberg and Kwaremont. From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke with the finish outside the E3 stadium.

Contenders and Favourites

Peter Sagan - the 5/2 favourite.. what will happen with Sagan this time? Will he be the aggressor and try to blow things up or will he be like last year in this race and Gent-Wevelgem where he just decides that he won't be leaned on all race to do all the work and potentially let a race-winning break go instead? Well he has been in mixed form so far this year, with a stage win Down Under, and that was followed by a long break before returning to finish 8th in Strade Bianche. He never really looked like winning it that day, but did seem to get stronger as the race went on and everyone else started to struggle. 

Three 2nd places followed in Tirreno-Adriatico, two of which were in sprints behind Marcel Kittel, the third was very different on the uphill finish won by Adam Yates. And then in Milan Sanremo.. well, I wasn't all that impressed with him to be honest, he didn't look his usual aggressive self was more interested in pulling over and letting others chase than do the chasing, and there was no response from him when Nibali, a huge danger, attacked hard. He said afterwards that he was waiting to see the response of the other teams, but no one was willing to take up the chase, but he just didn't seem 100% to me. He finished 5th in the sprint though, but it never looked like he was going to repeat his attack of last year, maybe the head-wind put him off.. but it didn't put Nibs off eh.. 

Other worries about Sagan? Well his team is pretty poor, I can't see him getting much help later in the race, and he seemed to treat this race as just a warm-up to the Ronde last year, he was sussing out the opposition and watching to see who was strong enough to go after the leading trio. There are enough doubts in my mind to warrant avoiding him at just 5/2, I'd want 5/1 or more. 

Second favourite at 8/1 is Greg Van Avermaet, who is the defending champion and he sees perfectly suited to a race like this. He will be aggressive, he will be punching hard all day and he will look to come to the finish in a small group or in his own. He knows he is good enough in the sprint to beat most of the types of guys who will stay with him on a course like this, so he will look to thin things down long before the finish like last year. 

I expect him and his strong team to look to blow things up with 73kms to go again on the Taaienberg, and press on over the Boigneberg and Eikenberg to not allow anyone from behind to try to get back in to the race. I expect him to put the hammer down again on the Kappelberg, Paterberg and Kwaremont, to the point that there may not be more than 4 or 5 left in the race. 

One that is likely to be there or thereabouts of course will be the cobble-meister Sep Vanmarcke.. He's 3rd favourite at 9/1, and was right in the frame last year until blowing up on the Kwaremont and was eventually swallowed up and finished 23rd. But he has a pretty solid record in this race with a 4th, three 5ths and an 8th place finish over the last eight years. He looked strong in OHN when he attacked late and held off the sprinters to take 3rd place, didn't do much in Strade, but that was not really his sort of race, and was just training in Tirreno. 

He may be a winner of OHN and has finished 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, Flanders (twice) and GW, but the problem with SVM is that he just doesn't win often enough to trust him at just 9/1.. How does he win it? He basically has to try to get in a winning move that doesn't include GVA, Sagan or Gilbert, a pretty tall order. He might have to go from afar, but then is vulnerable to blowing up towards the end, or he will have to hang in there on the Kwaremont this year and then try to attack on the run back to the finish. But he doesn't attack often enough either to see that working.

Vanmarcke is looking forward to it though, he took some time off racing after Tirreno, staying at home near the Flanders course and did some specific training. He says he is in good shape and ready for it. “These races are the most beautiful and interesting races of the year for me. Hard, honest, history, drama, and of course — cobbles, which suit me very well."

Tiesj Benoot has stepped up to the top step of superstardom now after his extraordinary win in Strade Bianche, when he showed guts, determination, power, tactical nous and great handling skills. He has been a nearly man so far in the Flanders races, but announced himself to the world with his superb 5th in the Ronde in 2016. He is very much at home on the cobbles of his home roads, but missed the moves last year that won the race, he finished with the first main group that come home 52" behind GVA. He crashed out of Flanders, but then finished 3rd in Brabantse Pijl behind Colbrelli and Vakoc and 15th in Amstel Gold. 

He followed his win in SB with a great Tirreno-Adriatico, taking the youth jersey after a fine 3rd, 4th and 6th place finishes, helping him to 4th overall in the GC. He could have been a lot closer, maybe even on the podium if it weren't for Lotto-Soudal's awful performance in the TTT, where they cost him 58" on the very first day. I think he is ready for a much bigger race this year, he is looking very slim and very strong, and will be full of the confidence a Classic win fills you with. He has a strong team with him this year and I don't think he'll let moves by the likes of GVA go so easily this year. Definitely one to watch at 10/1 or bigger for an e/w bet. 

Philippe Gilbert looks a big price too at 16/1 given what he did last year, and given the massively powerful looking squad that QSF are sending here again this year. The team is packed full of potential winners and they could try any number of tactics to try to win the race. Ilio Keisse, Yves Lampaert, Florian Senechal, Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar all have chances in this race, depending on how it pans out, Senechal, Lampaert and Terpstra in particular could be huge assets to Gilbert in the last 70kms. 

Terpstra recently won Le Samyn in a dominant display by QSF, with Gilbert coming home in 2nd place on a bitterly cold day. Gilbert took 5th in OHN recently (2nd in the sprint), did some easy training in Tirreno and in MSR he was on Viviani care duties on the Poggio so rolled home in 75th as the rest of the team took over at the front. Gilbert has to be a big danger again because of his aggressive style, constantly probing and attacking, he very often triggers something that splits the race up and sticks. 

Oliver Naesen was brilliant in this race last year, one of his best performances of the season as far as I am concerned. He covered all the big moves, he attacked himself and when he was dropped by GVA and PG on the Teigemberg he had the strength left to fight his way back to them. He just didn't have the strength to hold on when he attacked with 250m to go, but at least he had the balls to attack as he knew he wouldn't win the sprint against the other two.. something Vanmarke could take a lesson from. 

He's a bit like Vanmarcke though for sure, he will find it hard to find a way to win this race as it will be very hard for him to solo away to the finish, and he won't win too many sprints. His form looks pretty solid so far this season, it's coming in to his target week of the season, he is sure to be involved, but may end up being a gallant loser again.

Matteo Trentin is one that I like the look of too though, he's 20/1 and has a good chance I think of being involved at the finish. He has been recovering from an early-season injury and has been getting stronger and stronger. 16th in KBK when he was looking good for quite a while, he rode well in Paris-Nice where he finished 7th, 8th and 9th, and then last weekend he had the power and the balls to go after Nibali on the run in to Sanremo. For a brief while it looked like he might actually catch Nibali, and if he had he'd have won the race, no doubt, but he ran out of gas with 1.3kms to go and was swallowed up. 

He was looking very strong here last year and was marking everything for Gilbert when Gilbert was up the road, chasing down Sagan and annoying him. Now that he is on a different team to Gilbert he will be racing for himself and he will have all the years of experience of riding with QS behind him to help him with tactics and race reading. I think he has a good chance of staying with a leading group and if he does, he has a superb chance of taking the win. 

Michael Matthews impressed me in Sanremo to do as well as he did considering it was the first race he had finished since last season, but he was pretty flat in the sprint and Ewan easily shot past him as they wound it up. He is a rare visitor to the Flanders races, but he has finished 2nd twice in Brabantse Pijl, but this is a very different race to BP. He has never done this race, nor Flanders or Roubaix, I'm not sure what he's actually doing here, but I can't see him featuring. 

Like Matthews, if Arnaud Démare can hang in there, he will be a huge danger in the sprint, he's been riding very well and would be one of the best sprinters in the race. Similar with Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb, but one sprinter who might be able to hang in there with the leaders is Sonny Colbrelli. He's in great form, winning on the Hatta Dam in Dubai, 8th in OHN and 3rd in KBK and 9th in MSR last weekend, he can deal with the hills, he can deal with the cobbles and he came close enough last year, finishing 2nd in the sprint for 6th place behind the leaders. Like Trentin, he's 18/1 with Bet365, but of the two I'd side with Trentin, but can't put you off backing Colbrelli at that price. 

Jasper Stuyven, Gianni Moscon, Jens Keukeleire, Luke Durbridge, Alexey Lutsenko, Heinrich Haussler and Magnus Cort Neilsen could also go well I think, but the one outsider I'd like to have a little nibble on is Lucas Postlberger based on his powerful performance here last year, he could get involved again at a big 150/1. (ignore, he's not riding it after all...)

But it looks like it will be between the powerful Belgians and Sagan again, and the outcome of the race depends on what Sagan turns up and how he feels about being made to work out on the course. He can't chase everything, and even if he did, I'm not sure he's fully tuned up yet, he'll be waiting for next week. So does GVA win? He might well do..I think he's worth a bet at 8/1 e/w with Skybet, he should be close. Gilbert should be heavily involved too. But I think that Tiesj Benoot might well be up there this year, and I'm hoping Matteo Trentin can step up and get involved in the finale this year too. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Tiesj Benoot at 10/1 with Bet365

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 8/1 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 20/1 with Skybet

0.15pts e/w on Lukas Postlberger at 150/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

GVA to beat SVM, Stuyven to beat Keukeleire and Roelandts to beat Drucker - 2pts at 2.4/1

Trentin to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 4/5

Haussler to beat Gatto - 3pts at 4/6

Valgren to beat Van Baarle - 2pts at 8/11