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Published on Monday, 21 March 2016 21:13

Dwars door Vlaanderen

Wednesday 23rd March 2016, 200kms

Niki Terpstra missed out last year in his attempt to win this race for the third time in four years when on a wet and muddy day, Etixx's leader played team-man and backed off when Kwaitkowski went up the road, but he couldn't stop TopSport Vlaanderen landing their best result in many a race with a 1-2 thanks to Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns. 

They stole the race from their breakaway companions Michal Kwiatkowski and Dylan Van Baarle with some smart riding in the final kilometres, Wallays attacked and Kwiatkowski and Van Baarle played 'after you sir' with Theuns just sitting and watching, then Theuns outsprinted the two of them for 2nd place on the line. Wallays had been active all day and even though he nearly got reeled in with 63kms gone, he kept going and went off on his own and was joined just after the Taaienberg by the other three who attacked off the front of the remainder of the peloton as Etixx disappeared with 54.8kms to go.

It was a day full of attacking racing, with Devolder, Drucker, Van Kiersbulck, Roy Jans and even Andrey Amador for Movistar getting in on the act.. Lars Boom was aggressive and was looking strong when he set off in pursuit of the leaders, only to come down heavily on a slippy left hand bend that also took out a motorbike and two more riders in quick succession (see from 3:40 onwards below). Despite controlling what was left of the peloton with 4 or 5 men for a long time, Etixx-Quickstep started to fade with less than 60kms to go and so Kwiatkowski kicked off the front with Theuns and Van Baarle, setting off in pursuit of Wallays. 

It was also a day littered with crashes, with numerous riders taking some quite nasty spills, including Aregger of IAM who was knocked out in one crash and several riders ended up in muddy ditches, one of the worst was Rudiger Selig who was almost unrecognisable after taking a tumble in to a drain at the side of the road (right).

The race was first run in 1945 under the name Dwars Door Belgie and from 1946, for twenty years, the race was run as a two-day race before reverting back to a one day race in 1965. It's relatively short at 200kms (Gent-Wevelgem is 243km) but it has plenty of challenges to make it an exciting introduction to the Flanders Classics. It takes in a lot of the roads and cobbled climbs used in the Tour of Flanders, including the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg and gives Flanders hopefuls a good training spin, and for others it gives them a real shot at a great result in a Belgian cobbled Classic. 

Niki Terpstra loves this race, but was a disappointing favourite last year, he's back again this year with a strong EQS team looking to finally take the hat-trick. The Kwaremont is crossed with just 34kms to go and generally makes a significant selection at the business end of the race, but as we saw last year, the Taaienberg, with 52kms to go can also blow the race apart. Just 3kms after the Kwaremont it's the customary second hit of the Paterberg, shorter but steeper than the Kwaremont, it's very rough and very slippy. The final Hellingen, the Nokerberg comes with just 8kms to go and it offers one last opportunity to get away if there is still a small group left together. 

Courtesy of their fine seasons last year, specifically their 1-2 in this race, Wallays and Theuns have both moved up to the big league thanks to Lotto-Soudal and Trek-Segafredo respectively. Both teams look super-powerful too, with a number of riders in each team that could genuinely be considered serious contenders for the race. BMC are led by Van Avermaet and he too will be looking for a good performance ahead of the Ronde in just under two weeks time. 

Contenders

Let me start by expressing my sympathies with those caught up in the terrorist attrocities in Brussels today. It may have been predicted by many that this sort of thing was going to happen sooner or later, but you can't stop hate and idiocy of this level from perpetrating acts like this. The one saving grace maybe was that there weren't more people killed, a Kalashnikov and an unexploded bomb belt were found in the airport. There were reports a few weeks ago that there were not going to be backpacks allowed on the course of the Tour of Flanders in the busy areas, we joked at the time about how the Belgians would carry all their beer, but I don't think anyone will object to added levels of security in the wake of today's atrocities. I love going to Belgium and love how much the Belgians love their cycling, let's hope there are no incidences at any races in the coming weeks, it would be so easy for a race to be targeted.

It almost led to this race being cancelled tomorrow, the country was on the highest level of terrorist alert, meaning all sporting events and public gatherings would have to be cancelled. But after a meeting during the day, it was decided that the race will go ahead, that the threat level will have been reduced by tomorrow. But it puts the race in to perspective, many of the riders will be affected by the events and if any more problems happen we could see the upcoming Classics severely affected, and that would be another sign that the terrorists are winning.  

This is a tricky race to find a winner from. You have a bunch of world-class riders here like Greg Van Avermaet, who may or may not be going full-gas ahead of his big targets at the Ronde. You have a host of second tier riders looking to take advantage of opportunities to lead their teams or to have freedom to attack and you have all the Pro Continental teams like TopSport Vlaanderen Baloise who want to make a name for themselves and earn a World Tour contract like Theuns and Wallays last year.

Lotto Soudal carry the number 1 race number with Jelle Wallays now riding for them, and they have a seriously powerful squad here. Wallays probably will not get an opportunity like he did last year again, now he rides in the famous red of Lotto-Soudal, he'll find it a lot harder to get away this year. Not that he probably won't try, he was superb last year, riding hard up the Taaienberg and riding strong all day, even at the finish of a hard day to mug Kwiatkowski and Van Baarle. He might be let try again to take the pressure off L-S from chasing duties.

Tiesj Benoot has been brilliant so far this year, living up to the hype, taking 3rd in OHN and 8th in Strade Bianche and some good placings in Tirreno also. 6th in this race last year, leading home a group 1'29" behind the winners, he followed it up with 5th place in the Tour of Flanders so he clearly loves it around here. Is he going to be going full gas though, or will he be taking care of himself and just getting some good training ahead of the Ronde?

They also have Jens Debuscherre who was 8th here last year, just two places behind Benoot and it could well be that they might ride for him and his strong sprint, especially if Benoot is looking to not go too far in to the red. Sean de Bie, Lars Bak, Pim Ligthart - all really strong riders to support them. But I think it will need to come down to a sprint, which I'm not sure it will.

BMC of course have a superb squad here too, and the organisers must be chuffed that one of the riders of the year so far, Greg Van Avermaet is on the startlist. He loves it around these roads and is sure to be a hot favourite for this race this year, although he hasn't ridden it since 2011 when he finished down in 22nd place. It's hard to know how he'll treat the race, as a training spin or if he'll be going all out to win it, but if it gets dangerous and messy I am not sure he'll risk injury. But Van Avermaet is a racer and never seems to want to ride any other way other than to win.

Supporting him are Marcus Burghardt, Stefan Kung (who took a little tumble here last year on a bend), Michael Schar, Floris Gerts and Rick Zabel, quite a young squad, so it looks like their best chance of a win probably lies with Van Avermaet, but Floris Gerts could go well too. Van Avermaet is sure to put the hammer down on the Kwaremont and the Paterberg if most of the bunch are still together, he will look to get away solo or take a strong bunch of favourites with him.

If it's a cobbled race in Belgium, then Etixx-Quickstep will be here, but can they make up for losing out last year? they seemed to be in total control, but then started to disappear on the Taaienberg, leading to Kwiatkowski taking it upon himself to chase after the attack of Van Baarle and Theuns. Niki Terpstra is back and he'll be looking to go better than last year, he's riding well too, winning Le Samyn in impressive style, riding away from Thwaites and Senechal.

He's supported by Yves Lampaert, Nik Maes, Tony Martin, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Julien Vermote and Lukasz Wisniowski, who was their best placed finisher in KBK a few weeks back. And should the race come to a sprint finish, as is sometimes the case, Fernando Gaviria is also here, but it will be a big ask I think for that scenario to play out. Van Keirsbulck was their best placed rider last year (excluding Kwiatkowski who has now joined Sky) he rode solo in pursuit of the leaders but finished just 9" ahead of the first chasing group. Lampaert and Terpstra finished in 17th and 18th place, 4'46" down on Wallays. Matteo Trentin was 20th. 

It's a strong looking squad, but it is probably all for Niki Terpstra, although it would be interesting to see Tony Martin on the attack. Van Keirsbulck and Lampaert might be given the freedom to attack, to make the others chase though, if they get in the right move, they could make it all the way. Lampaert has been riding ok this year, but any rider that finished 7th in Paris-Roubaix last year should go well on this course and he might be one of those riders who will be left go up the road as they watch Terpstra.

Trek-Segafredo has a seriously talented squad here this year too, with Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne hero Jasper Stuyven leading a team with a number of potential winners in it. Stuyven was superb in both races of the weekend of KBK, he was desperately unlucky in the Omloop, crashing on a left-hand bend when going off in pursuit of the break, he was looking strong, and just how strong was clear the next day when he soloed away from a strong field to take a stunning victory, even gaining time on an Etixx-led peloton over the closing kilometres.He was 26th in Strade Bianche but didn't shine in Tirreno, but it wasn't his kind of race. He has ridden this race once in 2014, finishing 33rd, but he was just 21 then, not a bad result at all. He has also finished 32nd in last year's Ronde and could well be a major player here this week.

Alongside him is another rising star in the Trek ranks, Edward Theuns, who was 2nd here last year. He rode brilliantly and selflessly last year to help Wallays win, and took a fine second place himself outsprinting Van Baarle easily. He had a great season last year and has continued in the same vein this year, taking 8th place in both the Omloop and KBK, two great results in two very different types of races. He followed that up with a 2nd place on stage 4 of Paris-Nice, running Bouhanni very close for a big win.

They also have Stijn Devolder, a past winner of the Ronde, he rode well here last year too to be in the front part of the peloton but didn't go with the race winning move when it came. He's getting on in years now but is a great asset to have for the younger guys in a race like this, he has vast experience on the roads of Flanders and finished 5th here in 2009.

Tinkoff have a lightweight team here, but they do have three good riders in Oscar Gatto, Erik Baska and Jay McCarthy. Gatto is a former winner of this race and is riding really well this year, if it comes down to a small group fighting it out at the finish he'd have a big chance in the sprint I think. Erik Baska is a new name on the Tinkoff team but the young Slovak announced himself to the world with a fine victory in the Handzame Classic last weekend. He hasn't shown anything to me though in his rides in the RVV Espoirs and Paris-Roubaix Espoirs that he'll be there at the finish. Jay McCarthy likewise, he's riding well, but I'm not sure how he'll go here, he didn't do great in the OHN or KBK earlier this year. 

Orica-GreenEdge have Jens Keukeleire and Luke Durbridge and they both could go well, but I can't see either of them winning it. IAM Cycling's best chances probably rest with Dries Devenyns and Oliver Naesen, both of them could be involved at the finish. I had picked Naesen as an outsider for OHN and he rode very well to take 13th place. It looks like others are jumping on the Naesen bandwagon now and he's only 33/1 with Bet365, he's 50/1 with Ladbrokes though and that might be worth a small bet.

Lotto-JumboNL's best chance of a win will come from Moreno Hofland or Dylan Groenewegen but that will mean it will probably have to be a bunch sprint and I don't think that will be the case. TopSport and Wanty-Groupe Gobert always go well in these races, Preben Van Hecke or Van Lerberghe for TopSport or Roy Jans for Wanty could have chances too. Adrien Petit probabaly represents Direct Energie's best chance of a good result

Movistar have an interesting team here, not that they will do anything like win the race, but the fact that Carlos Betancur is down to race is sure to raise plenty of chatter on twitter. I can't see any of them featuring at the end of the race though. Scott Thwaites could go well for Bora-Argon or Boris Valee for Fortuneo. Last but not least though, is my old friend Florian Senechal who I have been picking for a few years at big prices for cobbled races - finally landing a decent result when he came 3rd in Le Samyn a few weeks back at 66/1. He was 100/1 with Ladbrokes and that was huge, he should be right there with the main moves tomorrow and has a chance if he can get to the Kwaremont and Paterberg and go with a final move with the likes of GVA and Benoot. He's 50/1 now but that's still worth a small bet. 

Even though it is missing a lot of the superstars like Sagan, I think I have named probably close on twenty guys above who could win this. The dynamic of the race might be a bit subdued with the minutes silence and a nervous peloton, but I think once it gets to the business end in the last 70kms it will be full gas and everyone going for it. Greg Van Avermaet is a strong favourite and has a great chance of winning this, if he wants to win it.

Terpstra and Etixx probably hold the key to the race though and I think there will be a big push on the Taaienberg and then again on the Kwaremont and the Paterberg and we could get a small group of maybe less than 20 riders heading towards the finish, maybe even less. There will be lots of attacks on the run in and someone might make it, but if it comes down to a small group sprinting it out, GVA has a big chance, as has Oscar Gatto at 20/1. Benoot is tempting at 12/1 each-way but I think this might be a dress rehearsal for the Ronde and I'm more interested in him for that race... Not a race to be betting big on though, some bets scattered around for an interest.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Oscar Gatto at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 100/1 (take 50/1 with Ladbrokes)

0.1pts each-way on Yves Lampaert at 66/1 with Bet365 

0.25pts each-way at 50/1 on Oliver Naesen at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets

Wallays to beat Tony Martin - 2pts at 8/11 with 365

Benoot to beat Stuyven - 2pts at 8/11

Theuns to beat Pozzato and Thwaites to beat Claeys - 3pts at 11/10

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Dwars Door Vlaanderen

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Niki Terpstra

3 Jelle Wallays

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Florian Senechal

6 Oliver Naesen

7 Oscar Gatto

8 Yves Lampaert

9 Edward Theuns

10 Scott Thwaites

Sign up with Zweeler Fantasy Cycling games today to play the Dwars Door Vlaanderen Fantasy game, there are over €400 in prizes to be won. If you sign up here you can receive a 100% deposit bonus up to €100! Click here to read more.

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