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- Published on Monday, 01 July 2019 11:13
Tour de France 2019
Can Geraint make it two Tours?
The 2019 Tour de France has had its fair share of drama long before the race has even started. Chris Froome's spectacular crash at the Dauphiné and Tom Dumoulin's failure to recover from injuries suffered in the Giro has seen two of the race's favourites out long before the race start in Brussels.
It has indeed been a pretty crazy build up to this year’s Tour de France, with the 5/4 pre-race favourite Chris Froome famously hitting a wall in a recon ride for the Dauphine TT and ruling himself out for the rest of the season. Then Tom Dumoulin was also forced to withdraw when the knee injury he suffered in the Giro flared up again in the Dauphiné.
And defending champion, and the new favourite for the Tour, Geraint Thomas, also hit the deck in the Tour De Suisse, causing some on Betfair to hit the ‘Lay’ button, pushing him out from 5/2 to as big as 10/1. He only suffered a cut to his face that needed some stitches, and he has said that all is fine though and he will be ready for the Grand Depart in Brussels.
While all this was going on, Egan Bernal stepped in to Geraint’s shoes and won the TDS in style, bossing it in the mountains and finishing 11th in the 19km TT. As a result, his price has also been hammered in the last 3 weeks, falling from 8/1 to 3/1 and is vying for favouritism with his team-mate. Coupling the two of them together gives you an even-money return that one of the two Ineos men will take the Tour, and given the strength of both of them, the strength of their squad and the opposition they are up against, it might look like a pretty decent bet!
It looks on the face of it, with Froome and Dumoulin out, and Nibali, Landa and Simon Yates possibly fatigued from the Giro, and doubts about the form and abilities of Quintana, Porte and Bardet that this could be the most open Tour since 2008 when Carlos Sastre won.
Geraint Thomas was the impressive winner of the race last year, starting the first stage in 15th place, moving up to 6th on stage 2, 3rd after the TTT on stage 3, 2nd after stage 6 and taking the lead after stage 11, a lead we would not relinquish all the way to Paris. Tom Dumoulin fought him all the way, but just wasn't good enough, Chris Froome disappointed but ultimately stole 3rd place in the final TT off of Primoz Roglic.
There were memorable double stage wins for Dylan Groenewegen and Julian Alaphilippe, Alaphilippe on his way to taking a surprise win in the KOM competition. In all there were 10 stage wins for sprinters, with Gaviria, Sagan (x3), Groenewegen (x2), John Degenkolb and Arnaud Démare taking stage wins, with Alexander Kristoff rounding out the race with an impressive win on the Champs Élysées. John Degekolb's 33/1 win for us on the stage to Roubaix was the highlight of my Tour, even more so as I was roadside on the pavé watching it!
The sprinters are not going to have so much fun this time around, with only 7 flat stages, a few of which that could well be won by the breakaway. There's a huge amount of climbing to be done though, with the organisers calling it the 'Highest Tour in History', with all 5 of the HC climbs of the race being over 2,000m, with the Col de l'Iseran the highest on stage 19, reaching a mighty 2,751m.
But with only 27kms of individual time trialling, the organisers seem to have tried to make a course designed to suit their two compatriots, with neither Pinot or Bardet being noted time triallists. It should be a fascinating race, and hopefully an exciting one!
The 2019 Route
The 2019 Tour route is a tough one, make no mistakes about that. It might start with a bunch of mediocre-looking stages as they move from Belgium in to France, but they all will have their difficulties and possible significance on the race. Stage 1 celebrates the 50th anniversary of the first victory by Eddie Merckx, with a stage around his home town. They go over the Mur de Geraardsbergen and Bosberg, which although are too early in the stage to make any difference, they will decide who wears the first KOM jersey, with points available on both hills. The stage should end in a sprint finish though in Brussel.
Stage 2 is a Team Time Trial, and it could be a very fast one indeed, Thierry Gouvenou believes it could break the record for the fastest ever TTT, currently held by Orica-Greenedge from the 2013 Tour (57.84kmph). Expect local Belgian team Deceuninck to be going all out to get Alaphilippe in to yellow..
Stage 3 is flat for 160kms, then hilly for the last 54kms, the sprinters are going to be under pressure to get over the hills, expect Deceuninck again to be to the fore to try to set it up for Alaphilippe. Stage 4 is one for the sprinters, while stage 5 is an intriguing, hilly stage that could see the break make it, or the stronger puncheur/sprinter types like Alaphilippe, Matthews or Sagan fight it out if the break is reeled in.
Stage 6 is the first real GC battle, with the stage to the top of the nasty La Planche des Belles Filles climb – but not only that, they face a total of seven categorised climbs over the 157km route, four of which are Cat 1. The race directors have added an extra kilometre to the climb, taking them up a very steep forest road, we could see far bigger gaps between the favourites than we have in the past here.
Stage 7 is another for the sprinters, on a long (230kms) but mostly flat stage, while stage 8 is more like Liege-Bastogne-Liege with no fewer than 7 categorised climbs and 3,700m of vertical gain, very possible that the break takes this one.
Stage 9 is all for Romain Bardet, taking him to his home town of Brioude on Bastille day. It’s a very hilly stage, with a tough 7.2% climb just 12kms from the finish, this climb could well decide the winner, be it from the break, or a late attack.
Stage 10 goes to the home town of Lilian Calmejane, Albi, on a lumpy stage that looks made for him. But with only two more potential sprint stages after this one, there will be a big chase on to try to pull back the break and set up the sprinters.
Stage 11 after the rest day is another for the sprinters, stage 12 is the first of four challenging stages – gently climbing for 130kms, they then hit the Col de Peyresourde and Hourquette d’Ancizan in quick succession before a fast 30” descent to Bagneres de Bigorre, where Dan Martin beat Jacob Fuglsang back in 2013.
Stage 15 has over 5,000m of vertical gain as they take on three Cat 1s and a Cat 2 with a first-time finish on the Prat d’Albis.
Stage 16 is likely the last chance for a lot of the sprinters, some may not make it to the last stage in Paris given the route in between.
Stage 17 looks like one for the breakaway as the GC teams look to preserve energy ahead of the brutal stages to come. The Col de la Sentinelle, scene of Joseba Beloki’s career-ending crash in 2003 and Geraint Thomas’s crash in 2015 after Warren Barguil bumped him could well play a major part in the stage again, coming just 8kms from the finish.
Stage 18 is a monster – 208kms, two HC climbs (Col d’Izoard and Col du Galibier) and a Cat 1 climb, it finishes with a 19km descent to Valloire (below).
Stage 19 is short at just 126kms, but it’s far from easy – climbing from the start for 75kms, it then kicks up hard for the next 13kms for the Col de L’Iseran, where the prize for the Souvenir Henri Desgrange will be fought for, the highest summit of the race at 2,770m. The stage finishes with the 7km climb to Tignes, which is also well over 2,000m.
Stage 20 is also only 130kms, but again is packed full of back-breaking climbing, with the Cat 1 Cornet de Roselend, the Cat 2 Cote de Longefoy and the finish on the HC Val Thorens, a monster 33kms long at 5.5%.
And finally they move on to the final stage around the Champs Élysées, this year there is one circuit less than last year, with 8 loops of the famous circuit, 128kms long, but really only 60kms of racing. It should be a good battle amongst the sprinters who have made it over the final three brutal mountain stages. Michael Matthews, Matteo Trentin and Wout Van Aert, I'm looking at you..
Main Contenders
Ineos have the two aces in the pack it would seem with defending champion Geraint Thomas and his young protégé Egan Bernal. Thomas has said that he thinks it makes sense to have two leaders and they both will take their chances, Bernal has said 'if' Thomas is stronger than him he will work for him. There's a big 'if' if I ever saw one, looking at the form books and the route ahead of them, you'd have to side with Bernal, and his price is that bit more attractive than Thomas' right now. If you can't decide who will win, Dutch the two of them for around even money and sit back and watch the Ineos train dominate!
They have a lot of competition this year though, with lots of riders showing good form in the last few months. Jakob Fuglsang has arguably been one of the riders of the season with his impressive results. Winner of the Vuelta a Andalucia, 3rd in Tirreno, winner of the traditional Tour prep race the Critérium du Dauphiné, he's also won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finished 2nd in Strade Bianche and La Fleche Wallone and 3rd in Amstel Gold. Part of the incredibly powerful Astana team, they will be the team most able to challenge Ineos and Fuglsang should be close, as long as he doesn't have one of his 'Jour sans'.
Adam Yates was doing well last year up until he suffered like a dog in the Alps, losing 4 minutes and sliding from 7th to 16th on stage 11 and falling from 16th to 22nd the next day on the stage to Alpe d'Huez where he lost over 28 minutes. He's had a great season so far though this year with 5th in Andalucia, 2nd in Tirreno, 2nd in Catalunya, 5th in Itzulia and was sitting in 2nd in the Dauphiné on the last day before having to withdraw just 50kms from the finish with illness. Expect him to be challenging too, as long as he too hasn't a bad day in the Alps - living in Andorra and training regularly in Sierra Nevada should stand to him though.
Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot had the pressure piled on them two weeks ago when L'Equipe plastered "Now or Never!" across their front page. Representing a nation desperate to end their 35 year drought, Pinot comes back to the TDF after missing it last year after suffering exhaustion in the Giro and looks in good shape, with a recent win in the Tour de L'Ain and 5th in the Dauphiné. Like Bardet though, he will go well in the mountains, but will ship time in the TTT and individual TT.
Movistar come with their tri-pronged attack again, and really it could be said about Nairo that it's 'Now or Never' for him too, with his arch-rival Froome and Thomas out. Landa had a good Giro and just missed out on 3rd place, despite working for Carapaz's victory and he could play a big part in this race again, as long as he has recovered sufficiently. And the ever-green, and new Spanish champion, Alejandro Valverde is looking thinner than ever and in great form judging by his impressive victory last Sunday. How will they work together though? Will Quintana finally step up to the plate in the Tour to add to his Giro and Vuelta wins?
Steven Kruijswijk is having a great season and will be a solid top 10 bet, he will go well in the TTT and ITT and could well be a dark horse for the podium too, given the excellent season he's had so far. Richie Porte will be hoping for a bit more luck than in the last two years, when he crashed out both times. If he can climb as well as we know he can when at his best he could put himself in contention - he has a better time trial than most and if he can stay upright he could surprise a few.
Dan Martin is in great form and the course will suit him, bar the TT, but he has improved that a lot this year judging by some of his recent performances against the clock. Emanuel Buchmann represents Bora and Germany's best hope and he'll be looking to improve on his 15th in the GC last year and move in to the top 10. Woet Poels, Guillaume Martin, Rohan Dennis, Tejay Van Garderen, Rigoberto Uran and Vincenzo Nibali will be others to watch, Nibali particularly so as he says he's only here for stage wins and maybe a tilt at the KOM jersey.. either way, he should liven things up.
It should be a good battle for the Points jersey too, with Peter Sagan the hot 2/5 favourite to win it once again, but Michael Matthews, Dylan Groenewegen and Elia Viviani will be fighting him all the way.
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