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Published on Friday, 03 July 2015 01:23

TDF 2015 Stage 1

Utrecht to Utrecht, 13.8km Time Trial

Saturday July 4th

Here we go then, the Grand Depart, Utrecht style. A 13.8km Time Trial around the city of Utrecht to kick things off, a return to an opening Time Trial after a two-year absence. Apparently, due to the length of the time trial, it is not a prologue, and instead it is given the title of Stage 1! Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin will lock horns in what should be a brilliant battle to start the race.

Utrecht is the 4th largest city in the Netherlands and it's population of 330,000 is sure to more than double for the opening weekend of the Tour. The stage starts in the Jaarbeurs and finishes alongside Utrecht Central Station.

The last time there was a prologue as the opening stage was in 2012 when Fabian Cancellara won on the 6.4km spin around Liege at an average speed of 53.2kmph, beating Wiggins and Chavanel by 7" with Tejay Van Garderen in 4th place, just 3" further back. And in 2010 in Rotterdam over 8.9kms, Cancellara also won by 10" from Tony Martin, with David Millar and Lance Armstrong just behind. Cancellara averaged 53.4kmph in that race too, but it may be a bit hard to maintain an average speed of over 53kpmh over this longer 14kms, but with Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin in the field then they might just go close!

There are two races going on here really, one for the stage win, and then there's also the psychological battle amongst the GC favourites - will Van Garderen and Froome steal an early march? Can Quintana limit his losses to Froome, Nibali and Contador? There will only be seconds in it probably but every second will count at the end of this race I think.  

The Route

Not much to say about the route, at least in terms of profile, it's dead flat! It's quite a twisty course though with close to twenty sharp bends along the way. There is hardly a kilometre without a number of bends so the riders will be up and down trying to accelerate out of bends all during the 16 minutes or so it'll take to complete the course. They also pass under eight bridges along the way too, but they shouldn't really cause any problems. 

Contenders and Favourites

Paddy Power took the lead once again when it comes to pricing up cycling and had selected stage betting available at the start of December, a full seven months before the race! It's a shame that they won't lay a decent bet, they are just as bad as all the others as soon as you start winning money off them.

Of course, given it's a time trial Tony Martin headed the betting in the first prices out at 5/6, a generous price given how short he has been for Time Trials in 2014, he was regularly 1/2 or shorter. Since then he has drifted around that price, going out as far as evens but after smashing the opposition in the German national TT again for the third year running he has shortened a little in to 4/5 but in the last two days has settled around evens. Martin is in great form again this year, winning two out the four ITT that he has entered, with the two that he didn't win being the very hilly course in Pais Vasco and the Col d'Eze TT in Paris-Nice.

He has been going very well this year, either pulling hard at the front in various races or going on the attack as is his style. This TT is one of his big goals for the year though and he'll be going flat out to win it. But is he value at evens? It's quite tight, but he has a very strong chance of going in to stage 2 wearing the first yellow jersey. Boylesports have opened with him at 11/10 and I think that's worth taking now. 

Dutchman Tom Dumoulin will be keen to win this on home roads, roads he knows well. When he opened in the betting in December he was available at 5/1 briefly and then 4/1 for a bit longer. Since then he has shown that he is fast becoming one of the best TT'ers in the world with three TT victories. First, he landed a stunning victory in the hilly TT to Aia in Pais Vasco, and in his first week back after a six-week break he won the 5.1km prologue in the Tour de Suisse by 3" from Cancellara and 4" from Brandle.

He also took the final TT in Pais Vasco over 38.4kms from Spilak, Cancellara and Malori but the efforts put in by him in the Tour de Suisse took its toll in the national TT championships and he was left disappointed with 4th place. He said that first that it was just that he was very tired but hoped that 95% would have been enough, it wasn't as Kelderman led a LottoNL-Jumbo 1-2-3. He says it doesn't change things for the prologue though, he's just going to rest now and be 100% again for the Tour. Strangely he seems to have changed his story again in the last few days, saying that he was actually ill for the Nationals. He has been backed this week and is now 11/4 general.  

There is a big jump then to the next in the betting - Cancellara, Kwiatkowski, Malori and Brandle. Fabian Cancellara was 9/1 in December and I thought that was a decent looking price, he's was 14/1 just last week but has been backed this week in to 10/1 best price again, as short as 13/2. He has won only one TT this year though, in Tirreno-Adriatico, beating Malori by 4" and Kiryienka by 9". He was beaten by Dumoulin though in both TTs in Tour de Suisse and it could well be that he is behind him again on Saturday. But will that be good enough for a top 3 place? He is 8/1 with Skybet who are offering 3 places (1/4 odds), most of the rest are offering only 2 places. After I wrote this initial comment, Boyles have come out with 9/1 for first 3 so take that instead. 

Adriano Malori is in great TT form this year too, winning his first TT of the year in San Luis in January, then a month later in the Algarve he was beaten by hundreths of a second by Tony Martin. In Tirreno he beat Cancellara in the 5km Prologue, but lost to him in the 10km TT at the end of it. He won again in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, beating Dowsett but only finished 9th in the short 5km Prologue and 4th in the longer 38km TT in the TDS just last week, two disappointing results for him. He did go and crush the opposition in the Nationals just last weekend though, but the TT competition isn't the strongest it has to be said. He is 14/1, as short as 9/1.

Matthias Brandle was 20/1 to win the prologue in the TDS and although I didn't back him I did point him out on Twitter as being good value. He wasn't far off either, only 2" behind Cancellara when he replaced him in the hot seat, but then Dumoulin blasted through 2" faster again, but he did hold on to 3rd. He hasn't been great otherwise this year, he was way off the pace in the longer TT at the end of the TDS. I'm passing over him I think.

Kwiatkowski has been pretty poor in Time Trials this year and I think he will struggle here again, I wasn't interested at the 14/1 he was a few days ago, he's 25/1 now and I still don't really have any interest. I think he could be just helping set markers for Martin later on.

Rohan Dennis was ridiculously short at 6/1 when the prices came out first, but as he has done nothing really all season, his price is now 25/1, which still looks too short.

The only other rider that caught my eye was Peter Sagan at 66/1 after he won the Slovakian TT championships, but I think he'd have beaten the opposition there if he done the whole TT doing a wheelie. He's not a bad TT'er at all and could do a big ride on a twisty course like this. I have thought a little more about Sagan and I think he might be worth a small bet at 66/1. He could be really going for it tomorrow as he could gain bonus seconds on St2, stay close on st3 and then maybe go for yellow again on st4 over the cobbles. 

Overall though, I think Martin will take all the beating, given Dumoulin's poor performance in the nationals. I hate backing at odds-on in a time trial but he's now at the right side of evens to make it acceptable and I think he should get us off to a good start. Dumoulin should be good enough to chase him home followed by Cancellara, Dumoulin is too short for an each-way bet, but Cancellara isn't and there seems to be good confidence behind him this week. 

Matchbets that caught my eye - Cancellara to beat Malori at 4/5 with Ladbrokes, I think that he should easily do it, he is 4/7 with Bet365 and that's more the price I expected. Pinot should be too good for Quintana and Kelderman, the newly-crowned Dutch TT champion, should be too good for Coppell. Kelderman did crash earlier in the week but he says he's fine and he looked ok at the presentation. 

Start times can be found here

Recommendations:

2.5pts win on Tony Martin at 11/10 with Boylesports

1pt each-way on Fabian Cancellara at 9/1 with Boylesports paying 3 places.

0.25pts each-way on Peter Sagan at 66/1 with Boyles

Matchbets:

Pinot to beat Quintana - 2pts at 8/11

Cancellara to beat Malori - 2.5pts at 4/5 with Ladbrokes (is only 4/7 with 365)

Kelderman to beat Coppell - 2pts at 8/11 with Ladbrokes