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Published on Tuesday, 25 August 2020 00:33

TDF 2020 - Favourites

A look at the main favourites chances

Well what a build up we have had to the 2020 Tour de France. First it looked like we might not get a Tour at all, then it gets moved to a date that takes them in to September, normally Vuelta time.. 

We have very limited form to go on because of the very limited amount of racing that has been taking place since the resumption of action and that very limited amount of racing has cost previous Tour winners Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome their places in the Ineos lineup, they simply hadn't enough racing miles in them to strip fit for the Tour. 

This lmited amount of racing has also seen an unusally large amounts of crashes and accidents as riders take extra risks, are full of adrenaline and nerves and for some, are actually fighting for a job for next season in a very limited time window. It has affected a number of the big protagonists in this race, with Roglic nursing wounds after the Dauphiné and Steven Kruijswijk missing it completely due to his dislocated shoulder.

Egan Bernal has also had back issues apparently (mmmm) that saw him pull out of the Dauphiné, Nairo Quintana is still feeling the pain in his knee following his crash in Colombia while training there, and Manuel Buchmann just about made the Bora squad after he too was caught up in a crash in recent weeks. 

In all that, Roglic had been head and shoulders above everybody in recent weeks, Egan Bernal too has shown his strength, and Thibaut Pinot, Tom Dumoulin, Tadej Pogacar and Richard Carapaz have shown that we could be in for quite the battle over the next three weeks.

And of course, the spectre that hangs over the entire race is the possibility that the race might not even make it all the way to Paris. Covid-19 levels have been rising in France recently, a number of riders have been confirmed as having the virus and with the amount of exposure the riders and staff will face over the next three weeks, it will be almost a miracle if we don't get some confirmed cases and teams ejected because of the ASO's 'two strikes' rule. If things get really bad, the entire race stops.. would that mean whoever is in yellow or green etc is declared the winner? We don't have a clear answer on that as I write.

Let's make no mistake about this though - this is a very challenging route. I have seen various ex-pros and commentators refer to it as a 'Vuelta-like' route, meaning it is very hilly, hard and it comes at them right from the start. No easy TTT or sprint stages to ease themselves in, they start the race with two very challenging stages in the Nice area. Not just are the hills hard, but apparently some of the descents are very tricky and dangerous.. A peloton full of fresh, nervous, skittish guys, well it could mean we see some of the protagonists come to grief before they even have got warmed up. But let's hope not. 

And it doesn't stop - the first summit finish is to the ski station at Orcieres Merlette (10kms at 6%) will test the legs of the GC men and their teams, anyone not quite 100% will be feeling the pain. And stage 6 is also a hard one to start with, after 155kms of flat roads they climb more or less for the last 31kms, finishing at the weather observatory at Mont Aigoual, which includes a Cat 1 of nearly 12kms at 7.2%. 

Stage 8 takes them in to the Pyrenees, and although they go over the Port de Bales and the Peyresourde, it has a downhill finish to Loudenvielle. Maybe one for Matej Mohoric. Even stage 9 could be a wild one, with two Cat 1s, one coming after just 58kms in to the race, followed quickly by a Cat 3. It could be that we see one or two of the GC teams rip it up the Cat 1 to try to blow it up and isolate some of their rivals very early on, then push on over the next 50kms or so, extending the time gaps to any rivals that may have become detached, then go for it again on the Col de Marie Blanque18kms from the finish. 

Stage 10 is flat as a pancake on the profile, but it's along the wild Atlantic coast to Ile de Ré, and if you've ever spent any time in that part of the world, you'll know how windy it can get.. we could see carnage again, like on stage 10 last year when Pinot and others got caught out in splits. Stage 11 similar, but they are moving inland, but there could still be lots of wind.

Stage 13 might be discounted by some as it's only in the Massif Central and not in the Alps or Pyrenees, but believe me, this area is beautiful, but brutal. It is up and down ALL day long. In fact, it has the highest amount of climbing of any stage in the race at 4,400m, and it could well be a wet and horrible day, knowing the Auvergne. 

Stage 15 is a key stage of the race, with the two Cat 1 versions up the side of the Grand Colombier before the full ascent of the HC Grand Colombier, all the way to the top, all 17.7kms of it. Stage 16 is equally tough, but I have a feeling they let the break take this one and call a bit of a truce, with the brutal climb to Col de la Loze coming the next day, taking them to the highest point in the race at 2,304m (after first going over the HC Col de la Madeleine!).

Stage 18 is a sharks-tooth profile of a stage with 3 Cat 1s, including a gravel section, and it could be chaos again - if you lost time on the Loze, this could be a chance to go all out on the attack early to try to gain some time back - I'm looking at you Mikel Landa, Nairo Quintana and Miguel Angel Lopez! It could well be a break day again though too. 

Stage 19 - looks inoccuous, but it's the last chance saloon before the TT for some rivals to take some time on the better TT guys, then it's on to the possible race-decider, the TT up the LPDBF. But it's not just about the 6kms up to the top of climbing, it's also very much about the 30kms before it on the flat, where the stronger TT men like Rogla and Dumoulin will take loads of time over the purer climbers, and will look to hold the gains up the climb. Climbers will have to really measure their efforts so as not to lose too much time on the flat, or go too much in to the red that they can't put in their best performance on the hill. 

It really is a wild and crazy route they have planned this year, most stages are going to be action-packed from the start and it will be a very deserved winner who takes overall victory in Paris in three weeks time. I think we will have to see some of JV's rivals really try to take it to them early on and test Roglic and the others. If they don't, and it gets to the second week and he's feeling better and still right in the mix, they will just shut it down and look to control it all the way to the final TT with him in with a shout of winning it. It's up to Ineos and the others to come up with plans to try to stop them.

Let's take a look at the main contenders. 

Primoz Roglic - 11/4 

Primoz Roglic looked a great bet for the Tour up until the morning of the 15th August, as he not just led the Dauphiné, but he did so with swagger and with authority. In the 7 road races he had started since coming back before he crashed he had incredibly won four of them and finished 2nd in 2, with the other results being 9th and 10th. Even on the day he crashed hard he still managed 10th place. 

He had been riding with so much power and confidence and his finishing kick was unmatched at the end of the tough mountain stages - when he kicks, no one could follow, he was even getting time gaps just in his sprint for the line. 

Of course he was helped in no small part by the superb team that they put around him, with Dumoulin, Kuss, Kruisjwijk, Bennett and the rest grinding everyone in to submission first, reeling in any attacks with ease and keeping the pace so high that they burnt off all the support men, even for Egan Bernal. 

On that sort of form, he had a massive chance of winning this Tour. The route is hard from the very start, just the way he likes it, and there are lots of stages where he can employ the Jumbo train to shut everything down, then go for a late attack to maybe take bonus seconds and a small time gap. I can see Jumbo looking to control things in the first two weeks, keep it all pretty tight, let PR take a few stage wins or time gaps and then go in to the last week looking to control things even more, putting him in with a chance of sealing the deal in the ITT up LPDBF. 

He probably will start favourite to win that final TT, but it could be tight between him, Bernal and Dumoulin, with maybe Thibaut Pinot giving it a good lash too seeing as he lives in the area and will know the climb better than anyone. But if Roglic is within a minute or so of whoever is leading, he might well take over the yellow jersey at the optimum point of the race. 

He has a brilliant team here with him - Kuss, Dumoulin, Bennett and Gesink are great wingmen for the mountains, Wout is a great wing man for everywhere, and Martin and Jansen are the powerhouses for those flat parts in between. If Roglic isn't 100%, it could be fun watching that team rip the race apart anyway, with Bennett, Kuss and Dumoulin all capable of taking stage wins and time. 

As I write this I note that he has been drifting today (Wednesday) from 3.7 to 4.4, suggesting maybe all is not well with him. He posted an update on Instagram a week ago that said "Did a little spinn yesterday. I honestly thought that I will feel better by now after the crash on saturday @criteriumdudauphine Let's see what upcomming days will bring. I am staying optimistic." I asked my man in the JV camp whether Primoz was ok, and he replied "yes I think so".. so if you fancy him, take the 4.0 plus on Betfair right now. 

So, obvious concerns that he might not be 100% and could start this race stiff and sore still, and might be a little off the pace if he's not been able to train much since the crash. And this particular Tour is not one you can ease yourself in to over the first week of sprint stages.. It is going to be full gas, wild, chaotic action from the very first day, with two tough stages to start and a summit finish already on stage 4. If he isn't on it, he could lose time early he will struggle to pull back.

And the other concern with Roglic is his tendency to find trouble and crash.. he's crashed a number of times now when under pressure, and even when not, when coasting to a win in the Dauphiné. This Tour is going to be a nervous, chaotic one for sure, and there is a danger he'll get caught up in some drama along the way. 

Egan Bernal - Team Ineos - 3.35 Best Price (Betfair) 

The only real worries I had last year about Bernal's chances in winning the race, were the tough stages towards the end of the three-week race for such a young rider. I needn't have worried, as in fact he got better as the race went on and was soloing to a stage victory when the race was stopped on stage 19. 

His prep hasn't been the smoothest, with his abandonment from the Dauphiné, citing back pain, but I am not sure there was much going on there. Ineos had had a bit of a nightmare at the Dauphiné, with Froome and Thomas way off the pace, and Bernal pulled out after stage 3, but if he did feel a slight twinge in his back (might be a legacy of his hard crash in the Colombian Nationals earlier in the year), then the decision to stop and rest it was the right one.

It could well have been even that if he was on the wheel of Roglic the next day, he too could have ended up on the tarmac and he'd be in a far worse state. Before the Dauphiné he was showing really good form, taking two 2nd places in the l'Ain and 2nd in the GC (all behind Roglic) and won the Route d'Occitanie from Sivakov and Vlasov, with Pinot back in 4th. His victory on stage 3 was on the stage that included the Port de Bales and Peyresourde, same as on stage 8 here, but that stage finished with an uphill finish to the Col de Beyrede, this one has a downhill finish. 

He has a maturity way beyond his years as he showed in his win last year and numerous other times before and since then, and has a superb ability to stay at the front of the race when things start to go a bit crazy in cross-winds, which could well be an advantage over some of his rivals in some of the 'transition' stages, particularly stage 10 to Ile de Ré. A stage along the Atlantic coast in September is sure to be wild and windy. 

And with all the talk of Froome and Thomas' deserved ommision from the squad, it is a dis-service to the rest of the squad to call it a weakened team - it is still a formidable team that he will have looking after him. Andrey Amador, Jonathan Castroviejo, Richard Carapaz, Michal Kwiatkowski and Pavel Sivakov are world-class in the mountains and will give their last watt to look after him and set him up for the closing kilometres. Dylan Van Baarle and Luke Rowe ooze class and experience and will be a great help on the flatter, trickier stages. 

The pressure is on him for sure to repeat the feat and deliver another Tour win for Ineos and Colombia, but he seems to cope incredibly well with the pressure. He's a street-fighter type of rider and will enjoy the rumble-tumble of the opening week I think and if he can keep close to Roglic up until the monster, 2,304m Col de la Loze on stage 17, we might just see his high-altitude abilities gain him some time on his rivals.

He will need a bit of a lead I think on Roglic starting the ITT on stage 20, he will lose time to him on the flat run in to the climb, but should match him, or even better him on the climb itself.. the Tour might all come down to how much time he loses on those flat 30kms. 

Tom Dumoulin - 7/1 Best Price

What a 'domestique' to have by your side as team leader of Jumbo Visma. Winner of the Giro, winner of nine Grand Tour stages, stages in all three Grand Tours, World Time Trial champion..

Dumoulin returned to action with some impressive performances in the Ain and Dauphiné and was part of the reason Ineos were on their knees and Bernal was on his own a long way from the top in a lot of the stages. 

He put down some serious watts to tow Rogla to the last few kms, and that was when he was not supposed to be anywhere near 100% yet, he was using the race for training! Dumoulin has all the pedigree and ability to actually win this race himself, and should anything happen to Roglic, or if he's not 100%, Dumoulin could suddenly find himself switching roles with his team leader. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the first week if Rogla struggles at some point, does Dumoulin drop back to help him, or ride his own race? I would think his instructions will be to ride his own race, there's no point in both of them losing their chances of a good result, they have a number of men who can drop back to help.

He will be one of the last men standing for Rogla in the mountains, and it wouldn't surprise me if he sometimes had a dig off the front to test out and tire out Bernal if he's been isolated. In doing so, it might actually stick some day and he could gain enough time to become a real GC threat. 

Even if he just rides in support of Rogla, he will still finish very high up on every stage, as we saw in the Dauphiné, so I think he's actually quite a decent bet to finish on the podium at 6/4 with Bet365. If he's anywhere near the top 3 heading in to the last TT, he could well take minutes off some of his rivals, as he will gain huge time on the climbers on the flat part and will also hold his own on the climb. The world Championships TT he won was on a very hilly course after all and he has won hilly TTs in both the Giro and Tour in the past. 

Thibaut Pinot - 9/1 best price (Betfair)

Vengeance? Thibaut has some unfinished business at the Tour following his emotional retirement from the race last year, while still most definitely in with a shot at the podium at the least. He had lit up the race with two superb days in the mountains, winning (and landing the bets for us) stage 14 in fine style and coming home 18" ahead of Bernal on 15. 

He had been in a very strong position, sitting in 3rd overall going in to the innocuos looking stage 10, but got caught on the wrong side of a split on a crazy day of cross-winds, and ended up losing 1'40" to his GC rivals, sliding down to 11th on the GC. If he hadn't lost that time he'd have been 1'20" clear of Bernal and only 10" behind Alaphilippe, going in to those two final mountain stages, 10" you think he'd have easily taken back the way Alaphilippe finally cracked. 

Let it be a lesson to him though, he needs to watch out for splits and echelons this year, we are sure to see some given the location of some of the stages and the time of year!

He was going well before lockdown with a 5th place in Paris-Nice, and has ridden well in his return to racing too, with solid performances in R d'O and the Dauphiné, taking 4th and 2nd overall (obviously helped by Roglic and Bernal's withdrawals). On stages 2 and 3 of the Dauphiné he was first home behind Rogla and finished ahead of him the next day. He wasn't able to go with the Pogacar/Sivakov/Martinez move on the final stage, when overall victory was within his grasp, but the determination and defiance he showed to fight back and almost regain the virtual lead on the road was sensational to watch.

He really seemed to be suffering at first, but dug really deep and found something that drove him for most of the last 4kms or so in pursuit of the Martinez group. Maybe the pain of last year still burns hot inside him, and that is something that could propel him to a big showing in this year's Tour too. 

Not a great team with him, but he does have Gaudu, Bonnet, Reichenbach, and Madouas to look after him in the hills and Ladagnous and Kung to look after him on the flat stages. Bonnet is his best friend and a huge help to him on the road, offering a lot of other qualities where his legs lets him down otherwise. Pinot lives in Melisey, on the route of the ITT, and was born in Lure, just 14kms away, so he will know the roads of the TT better than anyone else here. It might mean he will lose less time than he would otherwise have done, you would think he has ridden this course dozens of times in the last year or so. 

It's hard to see how he can win it though, as he seems to be just a level below Bernal and Rogla when they are fully fit. But that might be his opportunity - if they are not fully fit, or even if they start to mark each other out of it when all of their team-mates have been shelled, Pinot might just be able to attack away like he did a few times last year and take some time as Rogla and Bernal squabble about who will do the pulling. And France will explode if he manages it, and most of cycling will celebrate it too, it would be a very popular win. 

Tadej Pogacar - 14/1 best price (various)

Pogacar doesn't turn 22 until the week after the Tour finishes, but don't let that put you off his chances for this race. He's the 5th favourite in the betting for a reason - he's immensely talented! And Egan Bernal was only about 6 months older than him when he won last year don't forget. 

Pogacar has been impressing for the last few seasons but showed in the Vuelta last year just what a special talent he is by taking three superb stage victories. The second stage he took saw him outsprint Roglic on Los Machucos, the two of them pulling clear of everyone in the closing stages. The third win was by a wide margin of 1'32" solo. 

He started this season with a bang too with two stages and the overall in Valenciana, and followed that with 2nd place in the UAE Tour behind Adam Yates, taking the final stage to Jebel Hafeet in fine style, outsprinting Lutsenko and Yates. Post lockdown, he couldn't stay with Roglic's surge in the last 500m of the Slovenian road race championships, but won the ITT title, finishing 9" ahead of Roglic on a tough, 16km uphill TT. 

In the Dauphiné he sprinted to 5th on the opening stage, but had a bad day on the Col de Porte the next day, losing a minute to the GC rivals - he blamed not eating or drinking enough and indeed he did recover and improve over the next stages, getting away with Martinez to go after Kuss on the final stage, finishing 3rd in the end and 4th overall in the GC. 

It is his Tour debut, but he showed in the Vuelta that a three week Tour isn't beyond him, his best performance came on stage 20. The lessons he might have learned from getting the knock on stage 2 of the Dauphiné might have been a valuable lesson and he might not make that mistake again. 

The team that is with him isn't the best, but he will be able to count on Aru for support for a lot of the climbs, and DDLC and Davide Formolo will also be good help to him when the roads tilts upwards. Alexander Kristoff, Laengen, Marcato and Polanc will look after him on the flatter parts. 

He could be a good outside shout for overall victory here too, especially if the top two are not 100% - he would have the taking of Pinot and Dumoulin in a lot of these finishes I think, so is capable of taking time and bonus seconds. And he is well able to TT uphill, as we saw when he beat Roglic for the National title. But I don't think there's a lot of value in him now at just 14/1, I'd want around 20/1 I think.

Richard Carapaz - 14/1 best price

Richard Carapaz was the favourite for the Giro.. but he has been pulled from that opportunity to defend his title in order to try to seal a second TDF win for Egan Bernal. Super-domestique of the highest quality, the Ecuadorian could be one of the favourites to actually win this race if he wasn't here to work for his team-mate Bernal. 

He will be one of, if not the last man standing for Bernal on the tough mountain stages and will chase the attacks down and just sit on them like an anchor in order to pull things back together again.

But what if he goes on the attack himself early on if Bernal's back isn't recovered and he finds himself in or close to yellow? He has a superb finish on him, winning sprints uphill against Caleb Ewan in the past, and he has a fantastic knack of knowing exactly when to attack and jump clear. We could see him jump away on the uphill finishes on stages 4 or 6, and with time bonuses he could suddenly be leading the race.. 

But that might be something we can entertain after seeing how Bernal gets through the first two stages, if he struggles on stage 2 in particular, then it might be time to switch to supporting Carapaz. 

Emanuel Buchmann - 33/1 best price

Buchmann continues to be a rider who seems to fly under the radar, and that's despite taking a very impressive 4th place in last year's Tour. He climbed steadily from 63rd place after stage 2, jumping in to the top 5 after being on the right side of that cross-wind split on stage 10 that cost Pinot so much time and moved up to 4th after the shortened stage 20 to Val Thorens.

His GC results in the Tour show similar progress, 83rd in his first Tour in 2015, then 21st in 2016, 15th in 2017 and 4th last year. He did the Vuelta in 2018, where he finished 12th, again progress up the GC ladder in Grand Tours. 

He's steady, but not spectacular, he doesn't win very often at all (only 4 pro wins) and he is not the explosive type to either attack at full gas in the closing stages, or jump quickly on the wheel of Bernal or the like when they attack. He's a steady Eddie, a bit like Kruijswijk, and that brings solid, consistent finishes. But solid, consistent finishes will not win him this race, he needs more than that, and I'm not sure he's got it. 4th - 6th again for me. 

There is a big concern about the injuries he suffered in that crash on stage 4 of the Dauphiné, even throwing his participation in the race in to doubt. But he has declared himself fit and will take to the startline. The 33/1 is a reflection of his injury worries, a bit like the 11/4 on Roglic, he'd probably be 16/1 or so if he hadn't crashed. 

Nairo Quintana - 28/1 best price

Well, it's a strange situation to find Nairo Quintana down here in the lower end of the odds, but despite starting the season in what looked like his best form for a long time, the crash he had in Colombia seems to really have affected him. He was flying earlier in the season, taking the Tour de la Provence and the Tour des Alpes, taking super stage wins in each, then finished 6th in Paris Nice, again taking a super stage win on the final day to Valdeblore la Comliane. He looked to be back to somewhere near his best, if not better. 

But then he crashed badly in training in Colombia and he has been affected by it since he returned to racing. He got dropped relatively early in the Mont Ventoux Challenge, coming home almost 2 minutes behind Vlasov. He seemed to fare a lot better though in the Tour de L'Ain, taking 3rd overall, but then struggled in the Dauphiné, eventually withdrawing on the 5th stage, citing the knee pain as the reason. 

He is as big as 28/1, a crazy price you'd think given his pedigree, but unless he rediscovers his form from earlier in the season and gets over the injuries fast, he might not even finish the Tour. 

Others

The field is so stacked with talent I could continue writing several more dedicated sections. But I'm already at almost 4,000 words, so I'll try to keep this section brief. 

Mikel Landa - who knows what sort of Landa shows up, but that's part of the problem - his inconsistency. We might see him attack some days, but his tactical nous is not the best it seems most days and it may just be a lot of wasted energy. And he'll struggle in the TT, so no bet for me at 33/1. 

Julian Alaphilippe - 28/1 will look like an incredible price if Alaphilippe takes the yellow jersey after the second stage and decides to go back on his word about not going for the GC (or was it all a big bluff even?!) and holds it for a long time like he did last year. Who knows, it might even be that the race gets cancelled about a week in with him in yellow and the French finally get their winner.

But I do believe him that he's not going for GC this year, I think they will be going all out to get stage wins and the Green jersey, and he'll be having a tilt at the KOM jersey too. He might be one though to have a trading bet on at 48 or 50 on Betfair, in case he does take yellow in the opening week, his price would shorten and you could trade out for a free bet on him. Even if he doesn't take yellow in the first week, his price might not move much so you might still be able to trade out for a small loss.

Miguel Angel Lopez - 33/1 looks a massive price for such a talented Colombian. He was going to be the next big thing though a few years back, but he never really fulfilled that promise and has been rapidly passed out by all the younger talent coming through. He did finish 3rd overall though in the Volta ao Algarve earlier in the season, taking a fine stage win ahead of Dan Martin and Remco Evenepoel.

He didn't go great in Occitanie or the Mont Ventoux challenge, outshone by his team-mates Vlasov and Tajeda, but fared better in the Dauphiné to finish 5th overall, albeit helped by the withdrawals. He struggled a bit on the tough final stage won by Kuss though, not a great sign ahead of the tough stages to come in this Tour. The team still have faith in him though and he has some great support in LL Sanchez, Omar Fraile, the Izagirre's, Lutsenko and Harold Tajeda.

It might well be that when a lot of other teams have shelled all their support riders, bar JV and Ineos maybe having 1 or 2 left, Astana could still have 2 or 3 of those guys still there to help Lopez. Has he the legs though to finish the job if they set him up? We'll have to wait and see. But as outsiders go, there are worse 33/1 shots to see him turn things around - he's still only 26 after all, it's not like he's over the hill or anything!

Harold Tajeda - I mentioned him above, he's a star of the future and was very impressive in the Mont Ventoux Challenge to take 6th place. He might get a chance to shine on a few stages, I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

Pavel Sivakov (40/1) - I think it will require both Egan Bernal and Richard Carapaz to have nightmares in order for Sivakov to become involved in the GC battle. And that's unlikely to happen. As talented as he is, he will have to tow the party line for this Tour and wait for his chance in other races. A super-strong domestique for Bernal, he will chase everything down in the closing stages of summit finishes. 

Daniel Martinez, Sergio Higuita and Rigo Uran - three Colombians from EF that will be there or thereabouts at the end of the toughest mountain stages. Dani Martinez (40/1) probably has the best chance of the three going on form, he was the eventual winner of the Dauphiné, after the withdrawals of the top two. He showed what he is capable of though in that race, taking a 7th and 5th place in the 2nd and 3rd stages, then finishing with the Rogla group on stage 4 and then sprinting away from Pogacar to take 2nd place on the final stage, that despite having time trialled for most of the last 5kms or so in order to stay far enough ahead of Pinot to take the overall.

With superb support throughout the team from the likes of Tejay Van Garderen (remember him??), Hugh Carthy, Bettiol and Powless, I think we'll be seeing a lot of the pink jerseys throughout this race and they could just throw the cat amongst the pigeons. Martinez is also double Colombian TT champion, finishing ahead of Quintana and Bernal, and he finished 10th in the ITT in the Vuelta last year won by Roglic, 2nd in the ITT at Itzulia and 5th in the ITT in Paris Nice, so he won't be far off in the TT either. I think he is capable of a top 10 finish at 10/11 with Bet365, and who knows, a top 6 might not be too far out of reach either. 

Sepp Kuss, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Adam Yates, Guillaume Martin - all very capable riders, all of whom have their limitations or team jobs to perform, so a top 10 place is the best they can hope for I reckon. Kuss could be let fly if the team leaders fall away, Guillaume Martin has been riding well of late and is capable of a top 10 too, but I think I'd want a bit more than evens on him, and Richie Porte and Bauke Mollema are just below the level required and always seem to have a bad day that ruins everything.

Dan Martin has not had a great time since the return from lockdown, getting dropped very early in the Tour de l'Ain stage 2 and losing 1'16 to Roglic on the 3rd stage to Grand Colombier. He crashed hard on stage 2 of the Dauphiné on the descent to the Col de Porte, suffering a sacral fracture forcing him out. He did say after that "It's a shame as I felt I was in great shape but I'm a fast healer and I have reason to remain optimistic for the Tour." Maybe we'll see him getting in the breaks in the second and third week if he has recovered enough.  

Conclusion

On paper it looks like a two-horse race, with two of the best stage-race riders of this generation, and the current holders of the Tour and Vuelta titles going head to head. But both have issues to overcome it would seem and of the two, Roglic's would look to be more serious. Their teams are pretty evenly matched on paper, but again in reality, JV blew them out of the water in the Dauphiné, leaving Bernal isolated a long way from home. 

Carapaz and Sivakov are the high-quality support he needs though, and once it get high and steep he's well able to look after himself. Jumbo Visma will look to control and crush the opposition, the power of Dumoulin, Bennett, Kuss and Gesink will get rid of the vast majority of opponents a long way out, and Roglic has the kick to take a time gap and maybe some bonus seconds on the summit finishes. He's also not afraid to attack on the less obvious stages and will be licking his lips ahead of the final TT. 

Thibaut Pinot won't be far off and with a bit of luck he should be very close to a podium spot again. But I feel that Tom Dumoulin might just pip him to it, he'll be of a similar level to Pinot on the stages, and will take time out of him in the final TT to take a podium spot. And who knows, if Roglic were not to finish, Dumoulin could even go on to win the race. Pogacar will also be snapping away at the top two favourites, we could see lots of annoying attacks from him when the top two try to mark each other out and refuse to take up the chase, he won't be far off the podium either. 

Lots and lots of quality besides these guys and I think Buchmann, Carapaz, Sivakov, Martinez and Lopez are going to be top 10, with G Martin, Landa, George Bennett and Bauke Mollema fighting it out for the last top 10 place. There are surely going to be at least one of the above not finish, or have a disaster some day, so the likes of Warren Barguil, Sergio Higuita and Richie Porte might come in to the picture too. (that is if Richie hasn't crashed out on stage 6). 

I still think though that Bernal is the man again this year, I'm worried about Roglic's back and his ability to stay on his bike. I think Bernal will take time out of him on the Col de la Loze and it might just be enough to hold him off in the final TT. Dumoulin to podium too, with Martinez and Carapaz my top 10 bets.

Recommendations:

4pts win on Egan Bernal at 5/2 on Betfair

4pts on Tom Dumoulin to finish in the top 3 at 6/4 with 365

3pts on Dani Martinez to finish in the top 10 at 10/11

5pts on Richard Carapaz to finish in the top 10 at 4/5

1pt on Julian Alaphilippe to win on Betfair at 48, to trade out of if he takes yellow.