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Published on Thursday, 27 August 2020 12:50

King of the Mountains Preview

This competition turned a good Tour in to a great Tour for me last year with my headline 66/1 pick of Romain Bardet. Ok, we got a little lucky maybe in the end with the way the final two stages panned out, but who cares, right?!

Tim Wellens put up a brave fight for the jersey, leading the competition until stage 18, but with Bardet getting in that massive break of the day and scooping up 68pts to Wellens' 10pts over the Col du Var, Col d'Izoard and Col du Galibier, he leapfrogged 10 places in to the leader's jersey. Bernal ran him close though, and if he had managed to finish higher than 4th on the very last KOM finish at Val Thorens he would have taken the jersey and our payday!

Julian Alaphilippe was the surprise winner in 2018, I didn't even give Alaphilippe a mention in my analysis of possible winners, it certainly wasn't something I thought would be in his ambitions for the Tour, but there you go. I wasn't expecting him to go so well in the bigger mountains, but he did what was necessary, taking the points in breaks in stages 10,11, 14 and really streaking ahead on stage 16 when he took the KOM on the two Cat 1s and Cat 2 on his way to winning the stage in Bagneres de Luchon. He added to his lead again on stages 17 and 19 from the break and in the end finished a comfortable 79pts clear of Warren Barguil. 

I often say that this market is a minefield to bet on, with no one really knowing who is truly going to go for the jersey, and often others you'd expect to go for it not making an effort. It was sometimes that a break member would win points early on and then decide to defend the jersey and focuses his entire race around it. Barguil was like that three years ago, Alaphilippe in 2018 and Wellens last year. 

It looked last year like the competition was going to be between 7/4 favourite Alaphilippe and 13/2 shot Warren Barguil, but in the end, Alaphilippe's commitment to winning the overall GC saw him nowhere near the top of the KOM standings, he finished 14th in the end. Warren Barguil was very disappointing, doing almost nothing the whole Tour and finishing down in 21st place in the KOM standings. 

There are normally 20pts on offer for the first over a HC climb, but this year they are awarding double points on the summit of the Col de la Loze, the 'Souvenir Henri Desgranges' as the highest point in the race. Last year they awarded double points to all the HC climbs over 2,000m, namely the Tourmalet, Izoard, Galibier, Iseran and Val Thorens, and that helped us no ends with Bardet taking 30pts on the Izoard and Galibier instead of 15pts.

So there is 40pts for the first at the finish on stage 17 and points for the next 7 riders over the top as follows: 30-24-20-16-12-8-4. The rest of the points scoring system is as follows:

Haute Category (HC) climbs: (4) - 20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 points

Category 1 climbs (15 in total): 10-8-6-4-2-1 points

Category 2 (9): 5-3-2-1 points

Category 3 (21): 2-1 points

Category 4 (15): 1 point

So there is a big weight in favour of the Col de la Loze and the HC climbs, you will not be able to win the competition I think without having taken at least one or two of them. The first HC climb is the Port de Bales, which could be taken by a break candidate, unless the GC teams decide to try to blow up the race there as the summit is just 37kms from the finish. Stage 13 could be an important one from a breakaway-type riders hopes, with two Cat 1s, two Cat 2s and three Cat 3s, 36pts on offer there. 

Stage 15 is also a big day for the KOM, with two Cat 1s out on the course, with the ascent up the Grand Colombier from three sides taking in the Montee de la Selle de Fromental and the Col de Biche, and the HC finish on the Grand Colombier itself. 40pts available there if someone takes all three, or maybe 20pts for the break and 20pts for the winner of the stage from the GC. 

Stage 17 is the big one though from the points point of view, with the HC climb of the Col de la Madeleine 107kms in to the stage and the HC Col de la Loze at the finish offering the double points, so 60pts potentially up for grabs on that stage. That could propel someone from down the list right to the very top in one good day. Stage 18 is another good one for the break men though, with three Cat 1s out on the course and a Cat 2 and 3. If it's close with breakaway-type riders, this stage might well seal it with 37pts again on offer, most likely going to the break. 

The final Cat 1 is on the summit of the ITT on LPDBF, so expect someone like Bernal, Roglic or Dumoulin to take the points there. I think that we could well see a lot of 'controlling' going on, given the strength of the two main teams, and it could well be that a lot of stages will be won by breaks, thus leading me to lean towards break riders, and not the GC favourites.  

The Contenders 

Julian Alaphilippe - 4/1 

7/4 last year, but never gave his backers a chance as soon as he took on the GC challenge. He's a much more sensible price this year at 4/1, and seeing as he and his team are insisting that he is not going to go for the GC this year, and instead focus on stage wins, then he is a very logical and sensible pick for the KOM. 

His climbing has improved no end over the last three years, he tended to struggle on bigger climbs, but he showed two years ago and last year that he has certainly found another level in his climbing abilities. A comfortable winner of the competition in 2018, he is perfectly suited to this course, with lots of punchy stages right from the start of the race.

I think he could well go in the break on stage 2 and go after the points on the two Cat 1 climbs that day, and never look back. The summit finish on stage 4 isn't that hard, we might see him stay with the GC men and sprint for the stage and the points on the Cat 1 finish, and stage 6 looks like another one where he could try to get in the break and hold on for the Cat 1 points 14kms from the finish.

And it goes on - stage 8 with the HC and two Cat 1s out on the course is sure to be marked on his roadbook, stage 9 too. He might then take a break, while resplendent in his polka-dots, until stage 13, where once again we might see him in the break. He doesn't even need to kill himself if he is suffering, he could take the points on the early Cat 1, two Cat 2s and three Cat 3s before easing up ahead of the tough finish to the Puy Mary. 

Stage 15 can see him in the break again, taking the two Cat 1s before easing back for the final climb and let the GC men maybe fight it out, and if he needs to, stages 16, 17 and 18 offer plenty of points out on the road for him to go after to fend off any challenge from the GC men. 

He hasn't looked 100% himself to me in the last few weeks, but he still almost won MSR and almost won the French Nationals. Almost, but maybe a 100% Alap would not have been caught by Wout and Démare respectively.. But all roads will have led to the Tour and I think he has a really big chance of winning this jersey for the 2nd time in 3rd year, and the 4th year in a row for the French after Romain Bardet last year and Warren Barguil in 2017.

Romain Bardet - 10/1

A massive surprise last year at 66/1, but not for us who were on him.. The rationale was spot on, he's not good enough any more to go for the GC against the likes of Roglic and Bernal, so why not go for the KOM? Ok, it might not have been on his mind at the start of the race, but circumstances, and his form saw him drop out of the GC running already by stage 6, when he was already about 2 mins behind the main favourites. 

He actually didn't take his first KOM points, rather incredibly until stage 15 last year, when he landed 18pts from the break, but it was stage 18 really that won it for him when he took 68pts on the day. It just shows though, that a few really good days and you could land this prize. He did crack on the last stage when we needed him to try to score some points to secure the win, but with Bernal only finishing 4th on the stage, he just hung on to the jersey. 

I think you could probably say the same thing about him this year, forget the GC and go for the KOM, but he isn't much value compared to last year at just 9/1. The vibes coming from the AG2R camp this week though were that Romain and the team were very happy with how he went in the Occitanie and the Dauphiné and they think that he is going in to the race with ambitions of finishing as high as possible. 

That could mean we see him reign in his break ambitions and KOM ambitions early in the race and try to stay in the GC hunt for as long as possible, and it might mean that by the time he loses enough time to allow him to go on the attack again, it might be too late and he might be too far behind in the standings. One to watch in play though, if it looks like he might have to change tactics, he might be worth backing. 

Primoz Roglic - 16/1

Roglic could win a number of stages in this race, stages 4, 6, 13, 15, 16, 17 have summit finishes that he could be involved in, and of course, he'll be in the mix for the stage win, and the KOM points on the stage 20 TT. But all those, bar the TT, could be taken by breakaways, depending on how happy the GC men's teams are prepared to let them go and control the pace behind. I am leaning that way, and for that reason, for now, I'm not backing Roglic. 

Thomas de Gendt - 20/1

Thomas de Gendt will be fancied by some, as he always is for KOM competitions in races like this. Master of the break, he's bound to snag a lot of points, right? Well he was fancied last year at 25/1 but only got in a handful of breaks, and finished down in 13th in the KOM competition and was down in 25th place in 2018. He did finish 3rd in 2017, behind Barguil and a fellow named Roglic, and he was 2nd in 2016 behind Majka, but that was when De Gendt was a lot more 'De Gendt' I think.. 

He seems to measure his effort a lot more these days, going in less breaks, and resting and taking it easy as much as possible at the back of the bunch on the other days. There are lots of stage that have 'TDG' written all over them in this Tour, but he can't go for all of them.. I think he will be selective in each week in trying to pick a stage to go for and take it easy for the rest.. That is unless he finds himself in the jersey at some point and decides to try to keep it. 

He's not had many results to shout about this year, but did get in the break on the final stage of Paris-Nice and amassed enough points out on the course to move in to 3rd place in the KOM competition. And last week he finished 4th in the Belgian TT champs, so the legs are pretty good. One for stage wins, but not the KOM I think.

Warren Barguil - 20/1

Former winner of the KOM competition, he was just not at the races last year though when 2nd favourite. He was riding well of late though, taking 9th overall under the radar in the Dauphiné, finishing in the top 25 on every stage. Same in the Occitanie, he had three top 10s out of four stages, but in all those stages, he was no match for any of the GC guys, losing around a minute or so on most of them. It will be the same here, no point in harbouring GC ambitions, but will he be asked to look after Nairo if he's not 100% at the start of the Tour due to his crash in Colombia? 

If Nairo isn't 100%, then Barguil should be given the green light to go off in search of stage wins and the KOM prize, and he will fancy a number of these stages to scoop up a load of points. But I can't help but feel that he has been disappointing too often of late and he may find a few guys, like Alaphilippe, better than him over the top even if he does get in to some breaks. 

Adam Yates - 16/1

Yates is coming in to this Tour very much under the radar, we don't really know what's going on with him and his prep for the Tour. Very impressive winner of the UAE Tour back in February, we didn't see him again until the Dauphiné where the only things of note about his performances there were the cameras picking him out as he was getting dropped every day. 

It was a good training spin for him though to prepare for this, and the team have made it no secret that they are going stage hunting in this race and have no GC ambitions. That frees Adam up to go for several stages and also to go for the KOM prize, and it is very much within his capabilities. 

He's off to Skineos next year, where he'll probably be put to work as a workhorse for Bernal or Sivakov in various races, so he'll have to forget about things like going in breaks and going for KOM jerseys.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MS mob-handed in some breaks with several guys like Nieve, Bewley, Juul-Jensen and Esteban Chaves and I also think Chaves could be an outsider at a reasonable price, he was going well in Burgos and Poland recently and could get in a lot of breaks and take the final climb if the breaks stay away. At 40/1 he's worth a little interest each-way.

Others

There are lots of others of course who will fancy having a go, getting in breaks and seeing if they can hold on to the jersey.. Davide Formolo will try for GC for a whille, when that fades he will get in breaks, but I think he will just be stage hunting and won't be too bothered about the KOM jersey. 

Pierre Rolland suddenly appeared on our radars a few weeks back with a good showing in the very hilly Tour de Savoie Mont Blanc, taking a stage win solo, and finishing 2nd in the uphill TT over 22kms. Granted, it was against U23 and second division riders, but a good showing none-the-less from the veteran. Whether he can translate those sorts of results in to something at the Tour is another question. We will probably see him in a few breaks, but I don't think he is strong enough any more to repeat his exploits of 7 and 8 years ago when he finished 3rd and 4th in the KOM. 

Lennard Kamna showed some great legs in the Dauphiné, taking a stage win and 8th overall, it will be interesting to see if he can carry that form in to the Tour. If so, we should see him in some breaks. Daniel Martin might resign himself like Bardet to not being a GC challenger any more, and might go for stage wins, but I don't think he's the type of guy to go day after day for the jersey. 

Egan Bernal, David De La Cruz, Thibaut Pinot, Mikel Landa, Nairo Quintana etc etc - lots and lots of guys will score some points, but unelss the GC guys named above fall out of contention very early on, I can't see them scoring enough points. Pierre Latour might be the GC man for AG2R so will not be going for the jersey I think and Ilnur Zakarin and Lilian Calmejane are two more who will be getting involved in lots of breaks you'd think, but I'm not sure about a KOM assault. At a much bigger price, Harold Tejada could be a surprise, at 150/1, he showed great legs in the Mont Ventoux challenge and finished 2nd in the KOM competition in the Route d'Occitanie.. 

Alaphilippe looks a solid favourite for sure, the course suits him and he is saying he is going after other objectives this year instead of Yellow. Would be a great coup for DQS to take the Green and KOM jerseys! The MS boys can give it a nudge too for us at bigger prices, and we'll wait and see how things play out with Romain Bardet. Tajeda is our fun bet at 150/1. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 9/2 on Betfair

1pt e/w on Adam Yates at 18/1 general

0.5pts e/w on Esteban Chaves at 40/1 with Skybet

0.25pts e/w on Harold Tejada at 150/1 with 365

Matchbets

Pierre Rolland to beat Lennard Kamna (not sure Kamna will last 3 weeks, Rolland might. 2pts at 5/6