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Published on Monday, 25 April 2016 21:13

Tour of Romandie

Romandie, CH

Unfortunately I won't have time to do a big preview of the Tour of Romandie this week, I've a lot on this week and next and need to prepare for the Giro! The race looks like it may well be affected by bad weather anyway which makes it a minefield for betting and there isn't much value at the top of the market in a ring-rusty Froome and Simon Spilak.

Richie Porte and Thibaut Pinot could go well, but the only rider who interest me in any way is Ilnur Zakarin who rode well to 5th place in LBL Sunday and won this race from his team-mate Spilak and Froome last year. 12/1 with Skybet was worth a point each-way. 

The prologue is ridiculously short at 3.95kms, it will take them less than 5 minutes and the time gaps could be in the tenths of seconds. On such a short course it's hard to call any of the favourites with confidence, the likes of Dumoulin and Coppel usually need longer to really get the motor running and we could see surprise results, like the likes of Kittel pull off a big sprint for 4kms... Tom Bohli, the great Swiss hope for BMC could go well, anyone who finishes in the same time as Martin and Bodnar in a 14km TT should go well on home soil too. That was in the 3 days of De Panne just a month ago. 14/1 was worth 0.5pts each-way with PP.

Matchbets look hard to call too, but there's a treble that looks alright - Jungels to beat Geniez, Zakarin to beat Uran, Albasini to beat Gasparotto, worth 2pts at 9/4. For the overall, Bardet to beat Frank looks ok at evens, 2pts on that, and a double of Uran to beat Majka and Zakarin to beat Dumoulin looks ok at 9/10, 3pts on that. 

I'll try to scribble a few more thoughts tomorrow night, but depends on time constraints.  I need to find the time to work on my Giro previews over the next week or so too...

Stage 1 thoughts: a 169km run from Le Chaux de Fonds to Moudon which should have taken them over a Cat 2 climb after 40kms, but because of the weather conditions there this morning it has been removed. Instead, they will face three Cat 3 climbs along the way. It looks like the weather isn't great over there again today with pictures appearing on Twitter this morning of snowy scenes out of hotel windows.

Yesterday's stage was heavily affected by the weather, with none of the favourites able to really get in a blow as the conditions deteriorated later in the day. Ion Izagirre did a sensational time, but some of the GC men lost up to 30" to the Movistar man. Of the GC candidates, Dumoulin did the best time, as expected, but iit wasn't enough to win the stage, disappointing his short-price backers. Van Garderen, Quintana and Pinot did good times, but Froome has some time to make up.

Albasini was 5th fastest at the check point, then crashed on a bend and fell down the results too. He is the 7/2 favourite with Bet365 for today's stage, but is 8/1 with PP, who had Swift as their 7/2 favourite. 8/1 looked ok for an in-form Albasini, and I don't think it looked like he came down too heavily in the crash, but 7/2 is far too short. Simon Gerrans is bound to wind me up and win today after dropping away on the Saint-Nicolas on Sunday, but I am not sure I want to back him, but 14/1 is bordering on tempting for a place. Marcel Kittel is 10/1 with PP, but that's 10/1 that he even gets to the finish with the leaders, something I'm not sure will happen. If he does, he wins, simple as that. Bet365 think he has a better chance though, he's only 7/2 with them. What might help him though is if the conditions are bad and the riders 'down tools' out on the course, they may just roll over the hills and on to the finish, he'd have no problem staying in then. 

Moreno Hofland was one I was thinking of too but his recent form has been poor, Sbaragli, Bonifazio and Van der Sande could have chances, but the only other sprinter type who interested me was Samuel Dumoulin at 33/1 with PP. The little sprinter should be able to hang in there over the hills and has been in really good form lately, with a win, a 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the last month. There is also of course the chance that a break could make it today and Thomas de Gendt and Paolo Tiralongo were too tempting at 100/1 with PP for that eventuality. Small stakes today though with the weather conditions and all that, 0.5pts ew on Dumouliin at 33/1, 0.2pts ew on Tiralongo and De Gendt at 100/1 with PP. They've cut them to 50/1 now but Bet365 have them at 80/1 and I think they are still worth a shot, I'd have had them around the 50/1 to start with.