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Published on Friday, 25 February 2022 21:13

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 

Ghent - Ninove

Sat 29th February, 204.2kms

It's long been said that the Omloop was the 'traditional' start of the season, the 'purists' almost disregarding the earlier races of the season as 'training races'. I sort of used to be one, looking forward to the start of the European season proper..

But really, I think that that view is out-dated now and just plain wrong, if you've been watching the racing so far this season. There has been some brilliant races and some brilliant performances from all around the world. Just Wednesday, Pogacar laid down a big early market with his commanding win on Jabel Jais, with Adam Yates and Aleksander Vlasov also impressing, Vlasov also looking super in Valenciana, taking the GC. 

The sprint battles have been great too, with Cavendish, Philipsen, Bennett and Groenewegen going at each other, while away from the UAE Tour, Caleb Ewan has already shown seriously impressive form ahead of Milan San Remo. Nairo Quintana and Tim Wellens have impressed in the Tour Des Alpes, and Remco showed us all how good he still is with incredible rides in the Algarve and his Wattbomb victory in the TT in the Algarve. 

Kamna, Higuita, Geniez, Gaudu, Dumoulin, Valverde, Woods, Cort, Bisegger, Gaviria and Hirt - all have shown bright sparks already this season and we're just hitting a month of some top quality racing which will show us just how well everyone else is going. Ok, so not all the racing has been exciting, the borefests in the desert are always terrible, but there have still been interesting cameos to keep an eye on. 

On to the Omloop

And so we move on to the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the start of the cobbled classics. This race used to be known as the 'Het Volk' back in the day, but is now named after the Het Nieuwsblad, a Belgian newspaper that is a great supporter of racing in Belgium. Both races are hors d'ouevres to the cobbled classics to come, with plenty of the familiar cobbles and climbs.

In 2018 the Flanders Classics organisers tried to revive 'the memory' of the old Tour of Flanders with a finish that takes in the Muur de Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg and finishes in Ninove. This finish was last used in the Ronde back in 2011 when Nick Nuyens took a surprise win for Saxo, ahead of Chavanel, Cancellara and Boonen.

This is a race where you usually have to watch the weather forecast carefully. If there is a danger the cobbled sections will be too dangerous, they change the route. The weather for Saturday looks to be very mild and dry though, with no rain forecast, almost no wind, and cool temperatures of around 8 degrees.. boring!  

The Route

The route is quite similar to previous races, with a run up the Mur de Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg but the finish of the race finishes again in Ninove instead of Merebeke. The key section of the race is the 56kms or so between the Valkenberg, which they climb after 138kms, and the Bosberg after 191kms. The only key difference to the route this year is the removal of the Molenberg due to roadworks and the addition of the Marlboroughstraat and Biesestraat instead after 164 and 165kms. 

In between they tackle the Wolvenberg, Leberg, Berendries and the Muur-Kappelmuur one after the other, spread only 4 or 5kms apart each time. The Leberg is the longest at 950m, but only averages 4.2%, the Valkenberg is the steepest at 8.1% but is only 540m long. 

After the new climb that was introduced a few years ago of the Elverenberg-Vossenhol after 175kms they start on their straight-ish run for home, first running 10kms in a south-easterly direction until they reach Geraardsbergen and take on the infamous Muur Kappelmuur (475m at 9.3%, max of 19.8%) with just 17kms to go..

This is sure to have a big impact on the race again, it's steep and twisting and can blow a group to pieces in about 30 seconds. And if that wasn't enough to blow things up, they then face the Bosberg just 4kms later, a really nasty hill with 400m of cobbles (980m at 5.8%, max of 11%).  

They now head north-east with a tail-wind for 7kms as far as Denderwindeke where they turn north and run along an almost dead-straight road for 3.5kms, descending gently all the while, until they reach Ninove with 2kms to go. They turn left in to a head-wind for 500m and then arc around to their right through the 1km to go banner (right).

With 600m to go they turn sharp right, then 200m later turn right again, then sharp left again on to the 200m finishing straight, ridden with the wind coming at them as a slight cross/headwind from their right

Contenders and Favourites

The first cobbled race is always a bit hectic, even more so when the spring weather turns nasty. This year though looks like it's going to be similar to last year, with low winds, no rain and mild to low temperatures. It all points to potentially the same outcome as last year, i.e. a small bunch finish, as the attrition rate should be lower than on a wet and nasty day. 

Favourite for the race is Wout Van Aert, and with his new-look squad bolstered by the recruitment of Tiesj Benoot and Tosh Van der Sande, they do look like they will be able to offer good support in his quest to kick-start his spring campaign with a win. Nathan Van Hooydonck, Pascal Eenkhorn and Mike Teunissen offer experience and power and we should see at least 2-3 of them with him come the closing stages.

Eenkhorn was looking really good in the Algarve in support of Foss, climbing better than usual. He had some good results last year and he's one that it could all click in to place for him one day should events fall right, by following the right move, marking opponents and the move stays away.. He showed in the Heiste Pijl last year that he can beat the likes of Lampaert in a sprint, he is more than capable of winning a small sprint. 

Wout himself has said that this isn't a target and that he wants to be firing for Milan San Remo and Paris Nice and the other big Classics, and while others raced, he's been training on Teide with Rogla, Dennis, Kruijswijk and Vingegaard. And of course, if the form is there, he can win it from a number of different scenarios - a late push on the Muur or Bosberg, taking a small group that he wins a sprint from, or a larger group comes to the finish, minus the real out-and-out sprinters, he probably wins from that too..

But if it's a real dog-fight out there and he isn't on great legs, it wouldn't surprise me to see him pull the pin and save the legs for other more important targets, he's admitted that he overdid it at the Tour of Britain last year and the over-exertion cost him at the Worlds. 

Tosh Van der Sande has been riding really well last season, with some good late season results, but he's only done Omloop once in the past. He should be on team duties, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him, or indeed Tiesj Benoot try to instigate a move early on, like say on the Wolvenberg with 50kms to go, or jump on a move started by the likes of QS, Ineos or Bahrain to cover it and let Wout sit in with Teunnisen, Eenkhorn, Affini and NVH. 

The big dangers to the favourite of course are Quick Step, with 3 of the other top 5 all from the Wolfpack. Kasper Asgreen is the bookies second fav at 12s, with Yves Lampaert at 14s and Florian Senechal at 20s. Asgreen is of course the winner of the 2021 Ronde, outsprinting MVDP after a tough day in the saddle and also took the E3 Classic soloing to victory ahead of Senechal who took the bunch sprint from MVDP. He has only done this race twice though and finished 35th and 49th, and with him not long after recovering from Covid, I can't have him for tomorrow. 

Yves Lampaert on the other hand looks to be in great shape and has good form here having finished 2nd to Stuyven in 2020. He was flying in the Algarve, something his his number results don't show, doing a huge amount of work for Remco's victory. Lampaert wouldn't be the best sprinter around though, so he'll probably have to come to the line solo, or with a very small group in order to win.

He has won small group sprints in the past of course, such as in the stage of the TOB last year, but he was up against weak opposition that day. Pascal Eenkhorn has beaten him in a sprint last year in the Heiste Pijl, so a scenario where the likes of Eenkhoorn marks Lampaert and it comes down to a sprint finish could see him lose out

If it does come down to a small bunch sprint finish, then they will be looking to Florian Senechal of course, as he has the best kick of their guys here. Senechal has improved in leaps and bounds over the last few years and is now a regular top-ten finisher for QS. He was 7th last year, but it was all for Ballerini, but has the ability to finish off hard work from his team-mates to strip the bunch down to 30 or so riders.

His form hasn't been great this year though on paper, but you can't exactly say that the Saudi Tour or Andalucia are his kinds of races.. more training races than anything. With no Ballerini and with the chances being that it will come down to a small bunch sprint again, QS might use the likes of Lampaert and Asgreen to try to break things up, but ultimately might have to settle for a sprint finish with Senechal. 

The odd one out in the top 5 in the betting between Wout and the 3 QS guys is Tom Pidcock, who sits at 12/1, the same price as Lampaert. Pidcock has had a great cyclocross season, when Wout or MVDP weren't around, topping it off with his Superman victory at the World's. Not at the races in this last year (55th), he turned it around with a fine 3rd place the next day in KBK in the sprint, ahead of the likes of Trentin and Colbrelli. 

Winner of Brabantse Pijl, 2nd in Amstel Gold, 5th in SB and 6th in LFW, he showed himself to be a fine road racer in 2021 on top of his cyclocross skills, in the same mould as MVDP and WVA. He was going ok in the Algarve but crashed out while in a break on stage 5, but he looked to be ok after. I worry about that team though, they look lightweight and inexperienced and I wouldn't count on too many of them to be with him at the finish. I think he's a terrible price at 12/1. 

The two Bahrain leaders come next in the betting with Colbrelli as big as 20/1 (16/1 with 365) and Mohoric at 22/1. Colbrelli crashed out of this last year, but bounced back to finish 6th in KBK the next day. He started the season slowly last year but finished it like a man possessed, winning a sensational Paris-Roubaix, the Memorial Marco Pantani, the Benelux Tour and the Euros and Italian road race champs. We haven't seen him yet this year, but if he has retained any of that form then he will be a serious danger, especially given the strong team he has with him. But he does seem to be a late starter every year in terms of results and that puts me off him.

Matej Mohoric was in good form in Valenciana and can be the Asgreen/Benoot type character, attacking, covering moves, putting other teams under pressure and hoping one of the moves stick. It would be the only way he'll win though, he won't be winning from a sprint. 

Tim Wellens was flying in the Tour Des Alpes, chasing down Nairo Quintana and outsprinting him for the stage, but his results around that were pretty impressive too - out of his seven races he's started this year, his form reads 4, 1, 8, 2, 12, 1, 5. He finished 3rd here in 2019, 2nd in the sprint behind GVA, and he should be right in the mix again this year. I'm not sure it's the perfect sort of course for his power and style these days though, he seems to be becoming more of a diesel engine as witnessed by his chase down of Quintana, and how he had no answer the next day when Quintana skipped off.

It's a really good team with him though, with Victor Campanaerts continuing to evolve as a rider and turning in to a climbing goat judging by some of his training rides in the last few weeks. With Gilbert, De Buyst, Vermeersch and Sweeney in the squad too, they should be present in numbers towards the end of the race, and maybe they should be putting their trust in young Florian Vermeersch to repeat his heroics in Paris-Roubaix last year when he outsprinted MVDP for 2nd place behind Colbrelli. At 125/1, I'd rather be on him than Wellens at 20/1!

Jasper Stuyven is around the 25/1 mark and the big Trek man can never be ruled out for a race like this. Winner of this race in 2019, he's also finished 4th, 8th and 9th, so it clearly suits his skill set and power. It took him a while to get going last year but then he won that memorable MSR, stealing it from the sprinters. He always seems to be there or thereabouts, but I fear his team is a bit weak this year and he might be isolated in the last 30kms. And if it comes to a sprint there might be a few faster than him. Not for me at that price. 

Matteo Trentin is also 25/1 but Trentin seems to have too much of a habit of blowing promising situations to ever trust him to land a big race like this again. It's been over two years since he's won any sort of decent race, but he gets lots and lots of top tens. He just can't finish the job. His team-mates Alessandro Covi and Fernando Gaviria seem to be the men in form though, but I'm doubtful we'll see Gaviria at the front of the race come the final kilometres.

Covi will be an interesting one, he's been flying in Murcia and the Ruta, taking a fine stage win and 'winning' from the bunch up the cobbled finish. He fairly flew up those cobbled roads, no doubt helped by the fact that the town he hails from in Italy has a famous cobbled climb he used to train on. He's also finished 4th in the Tour of Flanders Juniors in 2016, so he should go a lot better than you'd think for a light Italian debuting on a race like this. At 33/1 he's the form pick for a bit of fun, but nothing too big.

Anthony Turgis is not one of the 'sexy' names for a race like this, but he's a consistent performer in these sorts of races, having finished 4th and 8th in Flanders, 2nd in KBK and Dwars Door. He warmed up for this with a good performance in the Tour des Alpes, practicing his sprinting with a fine 2nd place in the first stage, beating Bouhanni. 15th here last year and 2nd the next day in KBK, he tends to start his seasons in good form, and I expect him to be in the shakeup at the finish too. 

Peter Sagan is rolling out for his new Total Energies team too, but at 40/1 general (as big as 50/1), the bookies don't have much confidence in him, and neither do I. After a chaotic and difficult off-season, with covid and other issues, it will probably take him about a month to get going I reckon. 

Others to keep an eye on - Soren Kragh Andersen leads the way for DSM, with John Degenkolb and Nils Eekhoff other options, but I can't see any of them troubling the podium. Intermarché have a decent all-round team here with Aimé de Gendt, Andrea Pasqualon, Dimitri Claeys, Alexander Kristoff and Loic Vliegen. Kristoff probably wants a tougher, longer race than this to have a chance at victory, and his record here is pretty poor.

Loic Vliegen is a solid outsider, he seems to be riding well so far this season, as is Claeys, who has won the espoirs version of the Omloop twice and has finished 6th and 9th in Flanders. Pasqualon had a great end to the season last year and has finished 3rd in Le Samyn in the past. If I was to stick my neck out and pick one, I'd go with Claeys at a massive 600/1 compared to 200/1 for Vliegen and Pasqualon. 

I can't see Lutsenko, Kung, Narvaez, Vanmarcke, Aranburu, Swift, Van Avermaet, Valgren, Naesen, Cortina, Teuns or Politt winning, and other than them, the only outsiders at long odds I'd be slightly interested in would be Rasmus Tiller at 150/1 and Timothy Dupont at 600/1. 

I'm finding it difficult to back any of the top 5 in the betting though, it could be too many generals and not enough soldiers for QS, and it could all fall apart for them - of the 3 favs for them, I'd go with Senechal at 20/1. and I'm just about tempted to have a cover on him at that price. Van Aert could cruise around and destroy them all in a sprint, or he could finish 12th after having a good day's training for his bigger goals. Pidcock could well ride on the wheels of QS and Jumbo and surprise them all at the end, but 12/1 is far too short for me, he too could finish 12th, maybe even not at all. 

I believe the Jumbo Visma guys will have the freedom to ride their own races up until 30kms to go, so expect them to be very active, following attacks, closing down moves etc in the hope that one of them sticks and they get away with a small group. This will allow Wout to sit in and take it easy, saving himself for the last 19kms or so which will probably decide the race.

Anthony Turgis looks a decent shot at podium, and not a bad price at 28/1 to potentially surprise the favourites. I wasn't sure about Covi coming in to a race like this, but having thought about it a bit more and looked at his history etc I think he could well be in the mix given the superb form he's in. Either way, it's just good to be back doing previews and enjoying the racing in Europe, I can't promise a preview for every race, but I'll fit them in when I can! 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Anthony Turgis at 28/1 with Hills

0.5pts e/w on Alessandro Covi at 33/1 with various

0.2pts e/w on Florian Vermeersch at 125/1 with Coral (125/1 is now gone, even before I could take it, but there's 100/1 with Hills and 80/1 with Betway that's still worth a bet, he's only 66/1 in places)

0.2pts e/w on Pascal Eenkhorn at 200/1 with various

0.1pts e/w on Dimitri Claeys at 600/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Florian Senechal at 20/1 with Hills

Match Bets (all 365)

Stybar to beat Asgreen - 2pts at 8/11

Vermaerke to beat Sheffield - 2pts at 5/4

Turgis to beat Trentin - 3pts at 5/6

Covi to beat Clarke, Mohoric to beat Lutsenko and Wellens to beat Andersen - 1pt at 9/4