Details

Published on Friday, 05 March 2021 20:13

Strade Bianche 2021 

Siena to Siena

Sat 6th March 2021, 184kms

It's hard to believe that the Strade Bianche will only be 15 years old this year.. It's now such a well-established race, both for riders and fans, that it feels like it is part of cycling's history, helped by some epic races over the last few years.

It's basically the same route as the last three years, with over 60kms of the 'Strade Bianche'. Wout Van Aert justified the hype last year by soloing away to an impressive victory, but the rest of the podium was a bit of a surprise, with Davide Formolo and Max Schachmann rounding out the top 3. After two third places in his first two attempts at the race, Van Aert blew everyone away last year with a powerful late surge. Julian Alaphilippe started as favourite, but mechanicals and punctures saw him taken out of contention early on and he limped home over 15 minutes down.

Besides Formolo and Schachmann as a surprise top 3, there were also great rides by Alberto Bettiol in 4th, Brent Bookwalter in 7th and Michael Gogl in 9th, with Jacob Fuglsang in 5th, Zdenek Stybar in 6th and Greg Van Avermaet in 8th pulling off their customary strong rides on the white roads. Despite a nice sunny day last year, there was still over 10 minutes to the rider in 12th place, Michal Kwiatkowski, outlining just how hard this race is. 

This race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche. Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011, Moreno Moser in 2013, Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014 (and 2017), Zdenek Stybar in 2015 and Fabian Cancellara in 2016.. 

The Route

A twisty and undulating course, with no long climbs but with punchy hills, most significantly on the eleven unpaved parts. There are roughly 63km of gravel roads, appearing in 11 sectors (eight of those shared with the Women's Elite course). Starting from Siena, the first undulating kilometres are on tarmac before reaching the 2.1km gravel Sector 1 at km 15, which is perfectly straight and slightly uphill.

Shortly after they face Sector 2 (4.7km), the course’s first real challenge with a short descent and a long climb with parts at over 10%. The course will then go through Radi, where Sector 3 starts (4.4km) and immediately after Sector 4, one of its classic gravel sectors (5.5km, featured in the course since its first edition) with no significant gradient and leading to Buonconvento. The Montalcino is next, (4km at 5%) and after Torrenieri the riders will face Sectors 5 (11.9km) and 6 (8km) with only 1km of tarmac in between them. Both are hard, hilly, very punchy and with many bends, climbs and descents.

Soon the route reaches Monteroni d’Arbia, which marks the beginning of Sector 7 of San Martino in Grania (9.5km) in the middle of the Crete Senesi. It's a long sector with continuous up and downs in the first part, ending up with a twisting climb before meeting the tarmac again. In Ponte del Garbo (Asciano) gravel Sector 8 begins. At 11.5km it's the hardest of the race, mostly uphill and characterised by tough hills, the most important being those close to Monte Sante Marie with some very steep gradients.

The penultimate sector is one of the most crucial, the scene of where the significant moves have happened for the last three years, the Colle Pinzuto, which features gradients of up to 15%. After a few kilometres the riders will face the last sector (Sector 11, 1.1km) which features a demanding descent followed by a very punchy climb (max 18%) that ends up at the Tolfe. From here only 12km separate the riders from the finish in Piazza del Campo, Siena.

It's a really tricky finale though which you will need to have saved some energy for, it starts rising uphill as they enter the town with 1km to go, gradually getting steeper until they are in the narrow, house-lined Via San Catarina which hits gradients of 15%. It was here that Van Avermaet made his move in 2015 and Valverde went pop and where the top 10 is decided like last year when Alaphilippe dropped Fuglsang and the others came home on their own.

Then a sharp right turn and it eases off a little, a left turn with 300m to go and they arc slightly uphill along the Via Bianchi del Sotto before a sharp right with 150m to go in to the Piazza and the finish line. It's a finish that can see podium chances disappear in the space of 300m, as we saw with the finish of the last three years.. 

Weather

With so much of the race being run on effectively dirt roads, the weather can play a big part in the race. Last year they had great conditions, this year is going to be a bit harder on the riders, with rain coming Friday and intermittent showers forecast for Saturday. It means that there will be muddy patches, adding to the difficulty of the course, and it will be more attritiional than last year's race (which only saw 42 out of the 173 riders finish). There will also be a headwind coming at them in the final 50kms or so, coming at them from the north-east, of around 12mph. That will be hitting them as a cross headwind for a lot of the final gravel sectors, a tail wind as they head towards the last 10kms to Sienna, then a headwind up the final hill, although that will be negated somewhat by the hill and the city buildings. 

Contenders and Favourites

A superb lineup for what is undoubtedly going to be one of the races of the season. Wout Van Aert, Mathieu Van Der Poel and Julian Alaphilippe are joint 15/4 favourites with Bet365. They can't split them, and it looks like punters are split as well as we have no clear favourite. A look at the Betfair market shows a similar story, with MVDP at 5.0, Wout at 5.1 and Alaphilippe at 5.2. MVDP is a slight drifter in the betting, with Alaphilippe the one who has shortened the most, with Wout staying solid. 

Mathieu Van Der Poel looked strong in Le Samyn last Tuesday, moving around the pack with ease and stretching them out on the final cobbled sector on the run in to the finish, but his broken handlebars in the last 2kms put an end to his day. I have a feeling though that they were working for Merlier anyway, his finishing speed showed he had great legs, and I don't think VDP was going at 100% effort either. Winner of the first crazy stage of the UAE Tour before being sent home after the positive test in the backroom squad, it looked like he would come back to Europe and win OHN and KBK.

But as I hinted at on Wednesday on Twitter, and was confirmed on Friday before OHN he didn't take to the startline of that race, instead holding back for KBK on Sunday. And in typical MVDP fashion, he just decided he would have a go with all of 82kms to go. And he made a brilliant hand of it, only getting caught in the final lap with something like 6kms to go. 

He was fancied to take this race last year too, but a puncture before the key Monte Santa Maria dirt section put him on the back foot as the race exploded and his rivals accelerated. "It wasn't all that hectic, but it was a very hot day. Everyone felt that," he explained. "The flat tire was my big problem. It happened on the gravel before the Monte Santa Maria sector, the most important of the day. I had to go deep to get back there, along with Julian Alaphilippe and some other guys. I needed what I used there to go with the attacks shortly after but on Monte Santa Maria, I and the others had to ease up. Then it was over. I'm disappointed but at the moment I punctured, I still felt really good." 

He'll be out for revenge this year then, looks to be in good form and will be well suited to the mud and gravel. He has a very poor team with him though, so again, he might find himself isolated and in trouble if he has a mechanical late on in the race. Also, I worry a little about his ability to follow on some of the hills and the uphill kick in Siena, should be be there with his big rivals at the finish. 

Julian Alaphilippe has already shown he's got what it takes to win this race, taking the title in fine style in 2019, ahead of Fuglsang and Van Aert. His bike handling skills, his agression, his power and tactical brain, together with his explosive uphill kick for the final climb makes him a perfect candidate for this race. He suffered bad luck with a puncture at a bad time last year too, and the choice to go with disc brakes also proved costly as team cars were caught up and wheel changes were slower than usual. 

Alaphilippe has been in fine form this season already too, finishing 3rd on the Queen stage of the Tour de la Provence, and taking 2nd overall, then his attack in the Omloop helped set up his team-mate Ballerini for the win. He put the cat among the pigeons early on but ran out of gas.. but that didn't stop him taking pulls in the leadout train for Ballerini as he gave his last drops of power for the team. 

Mathieu Van Der Poel was just so impressive last year, he attacked away from the small group he was with on the Tolfe steep slopes, with 12.4kms to go and held off the chasers all the way to the finish. Bettiol tried to go after him but was unable, and Fuglsang finally blew up after looking on the limit for quite a while before that. The heat didn't bother him last year, and I doubt the cooler climes this year will hinder him either. The muddier the better for him too probably, he'll be looking to stretch them all and put his rivals under pressure in the final 30kms. 

He has been tearing up the roads around Sienna in the last week on his reccie rides, scoring some blistering times on some of the sections on Strava. He has a decent team here to support him, with Gesink, Harper, Van Hooydonck, Roosen, Foss and Martens, so he should be well looked after for a lot of the race, but you would think he'll be isolated too in the final 30kms or so. But he's proven before he doesn't need help. It is his first ride of the year though, but he comes here after a good cyclocross season and he looks ready to rip it up again Saturday. 

Tom Pidcock is just 12/1 4th favourite, and I'm sorry, I can't be having him at that price. Even at 20/1 I don't think I could bring myself to back him in a race like this, with him literally after just starting out on his pro road-racing career. He showed flashes in Omloop but disappeared when it mattered most, but took an excellent 3rd place the next day in KBK, which was impressive, beating the likes of Trentin and Colbrelli in the sprint. He has a good team with him with former winner Kwiato and Puccio, Doull and Sivakov, but I can't see anyone of the team, other than Kwiato, being near him in the last 40kms. And I'm not sure he'll be able to follow the top 3. 

Tadej Pogacar is the enigma of the race, he's been putting in some excellent times on some sections this week on Strava, we know he climbs better than almost anyone in this race, but can he pull it all together on race day? Will he be able to handle the rough and tumble of a muddy course, with the likes of MVDP and Wout blowing things up? He is quite light at 66kgs, compared to Wouts 78kgs and MVDPs 75kgs, and although lightweight helps with climbing, lightweight can cause you problems on tough courses like this too.

He's started the season on fire, winning the UAE Tour, taking a great win on Jabel Hafeet and a 2nd behind Vengegaard, plus the 4th in the TT, so he's clearly hitting the start of this season with great legs and not breaking himself in slowly.. of course, winning their 'home tour' is a key goal for the team, hence his early season form, but will we see him taper things back a little in the coming weeks in order not to burn out too early with the TDF in mind? I think that's too far off to be a factor here tomorrow, he'll be just looking to carry his good legs in to this race and give it a good go. 14/1 though? It's a bit short, 20/1 might get me interested. One to watch in play - he's got a good team with him and he might have more support than any of his rivals in the last 50kms.. 

Jacob Fuglsang has been disappointing so far this season, and was disappointing in this race last year, to me, so until I see some form from him I'm not going to be backing him for the time being. In fact, Formolo at 13/8 in a matchbet with him looks interesting, but I'm a little bit worried Formolo might be put to work for Pogacar if he's on a good day, but still think Formolo might finish ahead of Fugls. 

Stybar and Almeida at 20/1 and 28/1 are interesting for DQS, but unless something happens to Alaphilippe you'd think they'll be working in the services of their team leader. And Stybar doesn't look like he could win this race these days anyway, he's not the rider of old that took this race not so long ago. 

Bauke Mollema was super impressive in the Trofeo Laigeuglia during the week, pulling off a trademark Mollema Move™ to escape the group he was in and solo to victory. He clearly has great legs at the moment, he was also impressive in the Tour du Var, winning a stage and finishing 2nd and 8th in the other two. He has a fairly good team with him here, with Brambilla, Skujins, Simmons and Conci in support, but Mollema's problem is he's a bit of a diesel engine and struggles with explosive accelerations, the type that will be coming from Alaphilippe, Wout and MVDP in the race-deciding moves.. And unless he can grind his way back up to them and pull off another Mollema Move™ and attack on a flat or downhill section, while all the favourites look at each other, I can't see him getting away to win it from them on the final climb in Sienna. 

Alberto Bettiol rode brilliantly last year to finish 4th, he was right up there and almost went with Wout, but just didn't have the legs. He disappointed to me for the rest of the season last year and hasn't started this season too hot either, so not for me. Others who should be involved though include Tim Wellens, Kasper Asgreen, Gianluca Brambilla, Greg Van Avermaet, Matej Mohoric, Ivan Garcia Cortina, and Rudy Molard. Ben Zwiehoff, the former mountain biker for Bora will be interesting to watch too, but this is a big ask for someone with so little road experience.. 

Some outsiders I'm more interested in though are Simon Clarke at 66/1 and Michael Gogl at 66/1. The Qhubeka boys have been flying on the roads of the course this week, with Clarke killing some KOM sections, taking the KOM on one section and 2nd on the La Tolfe section, 3" faster than GVA and Pidcock and 4" faster than Wout.. but just behind him, by 1" was Michael Gogl, who also was scoring some top times for himself in the reccie rides. He also finished 9th last year, so wasn't far off in terms of places, but was still almost 7 minutes down on Wout. I'm expecting a bigger ride from him this year, he rode ok in the Etoile de Besseges

Quinn Simmons is also one I'll be interested to see how he goes, he's got the talent, but clearly a bit of an idiot.. can he stick with the big boys here, he thinks he can win Paris-Roubaix.. 

And that's it.. It's a bit late coming out, I know, I didn't think I'd have the time to do a preview but managed to find a window to do this, I had too many people asking me whether I was doing any previews this year.. And the answer is, I'll try to do them when I can, but it's not easy at the moment!

I'll try to also keep on putting out my thoughts and tips on Twitter - so far this year I've had Paret-Peintre at 66/1, Bennett at 11/4, Ballerini at 22/1 and Merlier at 16/1, so it's been a pretty solid start to the year. I've stayed away from most races and am glad I didn't waste hours and hours writing thousands of words trying to predict how some races would go. It's been an absolute nightmare to predict races and there's been some real surprising, big odds winners of races so far, and lots of favourites turned over.

I've felt sorry for some of those writing previews and trying to pick winners so far this season, it's been a real challenge.. And boy are there lots of previewers and tipsters out there now.. it's incredible how many there are compared to when I started out 8 years ago, in many different languages. So you punters are spoiled for choice, it's great to see so many opininions and views and sharing of information. Hopefully I'll keep picking the winners for you this season, got to keep showing these upstarts who's boss.. :-)

Anyway, to sum up, I think it's going to be an incredible race, and one not to miss. Record it if you have to and watch it back later. There will be hard luck stories, but you would think that the three main protagonists at the top of the betting will probably fill two of the top three places. I'm all over Wout Van Aert and have been backing him all week, taking 5/1 earlier in the week and still taking 4.2/1 tonight. I think he might well ride away from them all again and if not, if it comes to a sprint between him and Alaphilippe in Sienna, I think he will get the better of him.

I'm avoiding MVDP, but am going to stick a few outside bets on a rider that's clearly in great form - Mollema - and two riders who have been burning up the course this week and have lots of experience, Clarke and Gogl, hopefully they can be in the mix in the last 10kms and one of them could slip away as the favourites look at each other.  

Recommendations:

3pts win on Wout Van Aert at 4/1

0.5pts e/w on Bauke Mollema at 25/1

0.3pts e/w on Simon Clarke at 66/1

0.3pts e/w on Michael Gogl at 66/1

Match Bets:

Clarke to beat Bettiol - 2pts at 5/4

Formolo to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 13/8

Mollema to beat Pogacar - 2pts at 5/4

GVA to beat Wellens, Alaphilippe to beat Pidcock and Stybar to beat Bernal - 1pt at 2.1/1