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Published on Thursday, 01 April 2021 17:25

Tour of Flanders 2021

Sunday 4th April, 263.7kms

My favourite race of the year. A lot of fans and riders favourite race of the year. A race that always seems to deliver drama, hard-luck stories, and heroics. There are no hiding places on the bergs and cobbles of Flanders, it's every man for himself.

It's the 105th edition of the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, just six months after Mathieu Van Der Poel defeated Wout Van Aert by a tyre-width in a photo finish. It's a very similar route to last year it seems, a detailed route map hasn't been released to try to keep fans away.. They are starting again in Antwerp, but once again they have removed the Muur-Kapelmuur, which was re-introduced in 2017 after a 5-year absence until 2019. 

The first Hellingen they hit will be the Kattenberg, but it's from about 80kms to go that things start to get really serious with the second passage of the Kwaremont, followed by the Paterberg, Koppenberg, Steenbeekdries and Taaienberg. The climax of the race looks to remain the same, with the familiar three-time charge over the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg before the 14km run back to the finish in Oudenaard. 

We had another spectacular race last year, when the top young lions went head to head for the win. But the race was marred by a crash for Julian Alaphilppe, partly down to negligent and uncharactestically bad motorbike work by one of the race jury, but also a lot of the blame should be put on the shoulders of Wout, possibly also to MVDP for the way they drafted in behind the motorbike and flicked out at the last second, giving Alaphilippe no chance to react. 

In fact, Wout Van Aert himself had earlier ended up in a ditch, when he was forced off the road with 113kms to go. A change of bikes and a chase with some team-mates saw him get back on, but you wonder how much that might have affected him later in the race.. 

The race burst in to life with 50kms to go as VDP surged past the break of the day, pulling most of the leading contenders with them. As they hit the steeper part of the Steenbeekdries with 45kms to go, Julian Alaphilippe stepped on the gas and blew the race to pieces. Oliver Naesen tried to follow, but couldn't, so MVDP went around him and in pursuit of Alaphilippe, followed by Bettiol and Van Aert. 

Strangely though, it was on the downhill section of the Mariaborrestraat where the race-winning move was made. Alaphilippe stretched it out on the bumpy, downhill cobbled sector, and as he accelerated away at the bottom on the regular road with 38kms to go, only MVDP was on his wheel. Van Aert gave chase and bridged, but no one else could, and suddenly, the top three favourites were clear and heading for a three-way fight for the title.

Having ridden down that road though, I can vouch for just how difficult it is.. riding uphill on cobbles is hard, but riding downhill, at speed on them is also insanely difficult, your whole body gets shaken apart, it's not hard to see why some might have backed off a little. 

Suddenly the camera flicks from the chasers to the leaders with Alaphilippe on the ground.. Replays show what happened, but with a broken hand there was no way back for Alaphilippe. VDP and WVA stuck with each other over the remaining challenges of the Kwaremont and Paterberg and it came down to a man-to-man sprint finish. They waited until 250m to go, with Wout sitting on the wheel of VDP, VDP's neck almost rotated 180 degrees trying to anticipate when Wout would jump. They jumped almost simultaneously, with MVDP a bike-length or so ahead.. by the line it was millimetres, but VDP had taken it. Alexander Kristoff won the sprint for 3rd, 8" behind, from Anthony Turgis and Yves Lampaert. 

It was a superb win from MVDP, who the year before had given us a glimpse of what was to come from him. Whacked a kerb at around 40kmph early in the race, damaged his wheel and smashed himself in to the ground. Shoulder held in that grimace that suggests 'collarbone', he got up and gingerly started to ride through the cars.. but he not only got back on, he went straight to the front and played a big role in the rest of the race, even managing to do a kerb slide along the way too. To sprint to 4th at the end of the day was phenomenal. 

Niki Terpstra finally got his nose home in front at Flanders with an epic win in 2018, after coming close in 2017 with 3rd place and 2nd in 2015. It was another memorable race in 2017, with the epic solo win by Philippe Gilbert. It was helped a little by the crash on the Kwaremont that took down Sagan and GVA in full flight. GVA got up quickly and rejoined Offredo, Felline, Terpstra and Trentin who had avoided the crash, accelerated on the Paterberg and only Terpstra could stay with him, they collected Van Baarle and rode in pursuit of Gilbert. But Gilbert held on to comfortably take the win.  

Peter Sagan won in tremendous style in 2016 by such a large margin he was able to pull wheelies after the finish line. Alexander Kristoff was an impressive winner in 2015, escaping with Niki Terpstra 28kms from home, also on the Hotond like Terpstra did last year and holding their advantage, holding off Sagan and Van Avermaet who chased hard from the top of the Paterberg. 

The Route

The race organisers have withheld the map and profile, but it looks pretty similar to last years route, just a little longer. Based on last year, here's my prognosis. The race is starting again in Antwerp and heads south-west to take them to Oudenaard and as they approach the town they hit the first stretches of pavé, the Lippenhoevstraat after 85kms and the Paddestraat just 2kms later. Then it's through Oudenaard and on to the more familiar loops and the decisive section of the course again.

They then head out towards the Kwaremont, but on a different road to the one they will be coming back on for the final kilometres of the race, this time heading out south of the river Oude. The first hill they hit after 120kms will be the first passage of the Oude Kwaremont, generally taken at a pretty sedate pace compared to the next two passages, and that's followed 11kms later by the Kortekeer, introduced last year. 

They continune on the twisting, criss-crossing loop south-east of Oudenaarde, where they take in more of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs, including the climbs of the Kortekeer, Eikenberg, Wolvenberg and Molenberg, but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come. They also cross the rough ascent, and descent of the Marlboroghstraat, where Alaphilippe piled it on last year, then the Berendries after 153kms and then head south-east towards Gerardsbergen and take on the Berendries and Valkenberg.

Shortly after they take on the Berg Ten Houte, normally a hill that wouldn't really warrant much attention, but this is where Dylan Van Baarle got away in DDV, so they will be more cautious about it than usual I think. That's followed by the Kanarieberg where Van Baarle stretched his lead out with a powerful push. 

They then loop back west and head on to the decisive part of the race, making their second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont after 214kms, meaning there are now just 55kms left to race, and the pace is now 'full gas', This is followed just 4km later by the first passage of the Paterberg. There might be a selection made on the Kwaremont or Paterberg, but usually the favourites tend to wait for the next time around as there are still 50kms to go, but we've seen already in some races this year that riders are prepared to attack earlier and from unexpected places, and this was of course where Gilbert made his move in 2017. 

Just 6kms later though we should see some fireworks when they hit the Koppenberg. I have ridden this a few times and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come to it very fast on a downhill section of road. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. 

Secondly, the climb is short, but steep (up to 20%) and rough and it narrows even more the further up it goes, it's barely wide enough for a car. And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day your back wheel struggles to grip the cobbles. And don't even think about standing on the pedals, this is strictly a sit-down climb. (right). Positioning will be crucial coming in to the Paterberg and it almost always makes a selection of some sort.

Next up is the Kruisberg as they leave Ronse, which is 1km long at 6%. It is dark and quite rough and an important point about this climb is that as you come off the cobbles the road still rises a little more on the regular road surface and the strong men push on here as the weaker flounder to get to the top of the cobbled section. It's where the race-winning move was made last year and in 2017 and 2015. 

Then on to the Oude Kwaremont again.. It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.3kms and is very rough - there are large ruts and high ridges in the road, so if you can't get a clean line you bounce all over the road. When you are tired and suffering after 253kms, every cobble can feel like a sledgehammer against your front wheel, jolting and shaking your shoulders and arms.

What also makes this section of the race so decisive, is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs they face a second ascent of the Paterberg. It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% average gradient at this point in the race rips things apart again, it hits 20% in parts and it's where a lot of riders crack and lose their chances, or where others can make a decisive move, pushing on over the top to extend the small advantages as others flounder.

From the top there's only 13km left to the finish along the familiar run-in to Oudenaarde and the long, flat finishing straight. On such a short run-in, strong men with 20-30" advantage can hold on to their lead, anything less than 20" with a strong chasing pack and you could see it come back together before the finish.

The Weather

A sunny, mild day with no rain forecast. There is almost no wind, getting up to around 5-6mph only, coming at them from the north-west, so it'll be a bit of a cross/tail wind as they head back to Oudenaarde.  

Contenders and Favourites

Same as last year, we have the three out-and-out favourites at the top of the betting. Well, two are clear favourites with MVDP the slight favourite earlier in the week around 3/1, with Wout 3/1 in most places, but 7/2 was available with some of the shittier bookies who probably won't take more than a fiver from you anyway. As the week has gone on though Wout has come in to 11/4 - 3/1, with MVDP on the drift to 7/2 in places. The move is also very obvious on Betfair, where Wout has been shortening, and now sits at 4.4-4.5, with someone trying to get £2125 on Wout. MVDP has been on the drift all week, going from 4.0 to as high as 5.9, now settled around 5.5. 

Wout is currently 4.4 as I said on Betfair though, but with their now rather large 8% commission on winnings, it's the equivelent of just 3.2/1, whereas you can get 3.33/1 with William Hill. 

It's then a bit of a jump up to 8/1 for Julian Alaphilippe, with Kasper Asgreen 1/3 of the price he was two weeks ago at 10/1, a massive move in his price from 25/1. Peter Sagan opened up around 12/1 after his 4th in MSR, but despite winning a stage of Catalunya he has drifted out to 20/1. 

It's easy to see why the top three head the betting, they are all perfectly suited to this race, as we saw last year when it could and should have been the three of them fighting out the finish. They are great on these punchy, hard, short climbs, they handle the cobbles supremely well (even Alaphilippe on the downhill sections last year), they're aggressive and race on instinct to win. They can go solo with a well-timed attack or win a small bunch sprint finish. 

And if you look at the last 10 editions of the Ronde, five were won by solo riders (Bettiol, Terpstra, Gilbert, Sagan, Cancellara), two were won by a group of 2 (MVDP last year and Kristoff vs Terpstra in 2015), two finished with a group of 3 (Boonen in 2012 and Nuyens in 2011) and 2014 saw Cancellara win from a group of 4. And it could well be a group of 4 or less that come to the finish again this year. 

Mathieu Van Der Poel has had an interesting March, winning Strade in spectacular fashion, followed it up with a storming Tirreno, winning two stages and taking 2nd in another, but failed to light up Milan Sanremo like he was expected to (but still finished 5th) and was out-manouvered by QuickStep and Asgreen in E3. Then he looked a shadow of himself on the face of it at Dwars Door on Wednesday. 

He came home a lowly 58th on his own, and looked out of sorts for a lot of the race, getting gapped on not so difficult sections and getting tailed off in the closing kilometres. He said afterwards that he just didn't have the legs on the day and that 'maybe it was the heat, I don't like the heat'. He thinks that it will not have too much of an effect on his chances in the Ronde, but the bookies seemed to think so, pushing him out from around 7/4 to 3/1 in places. 

He may not have had the legs as he says to compete for the win, but if you look closely, you'll find that it was his massive turn at the front in the closing kilometres that pulled back the 20+ second gap between the 2nd and 3rd group, that allowed Merlier sprint for a podium spot. It was after that that we saw him pull over and ease off with 1km to go, that was why he looked cooked when the camera panned to him. 

It is a little worrying of course, he should be up there competing for the win if the legs were good, and coupled with the sup-par performances in MSR (he was badly out of position on the Poggio) and E3 (couldn't go after Asgreen, although to be fair he can't chase everything), it would have you a little concerned to be taking such a short price on him. 

Wout Van Aert is also pretty short, but he's recent performances have been mixed too. Super-strong in Gent Wevelgem, he made the race-winning move that went with a full 180kms to go, and outsprinted a bunch of sprinters to take the win. But before that he had a tough E3, when a puncture at a crucial point in the race saw him waste a lot of energy to get back to the pack, only to be distanced on the Tiegemberg. 

3rd in MSR, superb all through Tirreno to take two stage wins and 2nd in the GC, he skipped Dwars Door to rest and recover for the big one Sunday. I think that was a wise move, especially as we've seen how hard MVDP found it, Wout should come here fresher and full of confidence to turn the tables on Mathieu. 

But how can he win it? Wait till they go to the line and try to outsprint VDP and the rest? That didn't work out last year and VDP beat him three times in sprints in Tirreno.. Try to go on the Kwaremont or Paterberg? Hard to see him shaking off Alaphilippe or MVDP, but it is possible. Go earlier than that, say on the Taaienberg, to try to get away with a group that doesn't contain MVDP or Alap? Good luck with that, it's unlikely, unless they're not on great days, that they'll let him out of their sight. 

And Julian Alaphilippe - could he have won last year? Definitely.. he was flying up the hills and bergs and looked full of confidence. He could well have attacked on the Paterberg or Kwaremont, and who knows, he might have gone clear and soloed to the finish as the other two bickered about who would do the chasing. And it could well be how he could win it this year. Judging by how fast MVDP and Wout sprinted at the finish last year, and by how fast they are finishing this year, I think that might be his only chance of the win, to go solo, or with a few riders that are not VDP or WVA. 

Alaphilippe isn't DQS's only hope though, they are stacked with quality. They were sublime in E3, dominating the race all day and Asgreen was the hero at the end of the day. But Florian Senechal showed that he could well have taken the race anyway, annoyingly taking the sprint for 2nd ahead of VDP, annoying as I had called the race almost perfect, a 28/1 winner just got away thanks to Asgreen!  

Florian Senechal must have a big chance again, but he will need Wout and VDP to be a little off-form in order to not have the race blow up and be too tough for him. If it's not too hard, he could well find himself part of a small group coming to the closing stages, with maybe 2 or 3 other Quick-Steppers with him. They were disappointing really in Gent-Wevelgem, Bennett pre-sickness aside, and were anonymous in Dwars Door.. But all roads lead to Flanders for DQS and you can be sure they'll be out to perform better here. 

Kasper Asgreen is sure to give it another go, he looks to be in superb shape at the moment, and it could be that we see another stealth move from him at some point, one that momentarily gets a gap as the others look at each other, waiting to see who does the chasing..

But it's unlikely for lightning to strike twice in that regard, he'll be watched a lot more closely this time around, and not just by the top two guys, but also the likes of GVA and Oli Naesen who might be looking to hitch themselves on to his back wheel when he goes. He's far too short now at just 10/1, if you're sitting on a 25/1 ticket, then you're probably feeling pretty happy. 

And they also have Yves Lampaert, who has been going well lately but was hit by an untimely puncture in E3 and missed the bus in GW and tried to bridge late on to no avail. He did look strong in DDV, taking 3rd in the sprint behind Laporte and Merlier. 

Peter Sagan, great to see him back to winning ways, but to be fair if he can't win a sprint against Impey, Molano and the lineup that was in Catalunya, he might as well retire. His other rides in Catalunya were more worrying though, and as impressive as his 4th place was in MSR, that wasn't a hard race really, just a few short, intense efforts in the last hour or so of racing after sleeping all day. This is a different level altogether, and to be blunt, I don't think he makes the final selection. 

The only other rider that has impressed enough to make you want to consider backing him is Dylan Van Baarle. His near 54km solo ride in DDV was super impressive, holding a gap on his own of around 25-30 seconds on a group of chasers. He looked strong all day, he said he felt great, asking Hayter to string it out on the Taaienberg with 58kms to go, then kicked off on his own on the rather innocuous Berg Ten Houte, catching the others by surprise. 

He has finished 4th, 6th, 8th, 12th and 18th in the past here, but you can't help but think he will have to go long again and hope he gets a gap that he can hold again. I think he might struggle with the explosive attacks of the likes of Alaphilippe and MVDP, but if he can hang in there not too far off them when they do launch the big attacks, he might be able to grind back on when they knock it back a bit. But I think unless he come to the finish solo on his own he'll be picking up minor placings again. A good shout for the top 10 though. 

AG2R's two main men, GVA and Oli Naesen have come out fighting this week, moaning about people moaning about their performances and the team's perceived lack of race acumen and tactics in recent races. The key thing that you take form it though is that they know they have no answer to the power and ability of the top two guys, and most of the time are simply on the limit just to stay in the front of the race (like when Asgreen attacked, Oli said that it was his responsibility to chase him down, but he just physically couldn't, he was on the limit. 

GVA has looked good though to be fair in recent weeks, he has been attacking and at least trying to race hard, but he just hasn't the power or the acceleration any more to get away. Oli Naesen has looked good too, you would think if they could find a cobbled race with no MVDP or WVA they might just do well in it. But as it is, they will struggle again to stay with the big moves, although I think they will be closer Sunday and they could well both finish in the top 10. 

Jasper Stuyven and Mads Pedersen represent Trek's best hopes, but like I predicted in E3, I don't think they will be good enough to stay with the big moves on the hellingen, particularly Pedersen. Stuyven might, and if he's on a really good day he could pull an Asgreen and attack away solo while the others look at each other. But I can't see it. 

Anthony Turgis has been riding well lately too, 10th in MSR, 12th in E3, 9th in GW and 8th in DDV, he's been very consistent and aggressive, not afraid to mix things up and attack off the front. 4th last year, at 50/1 he could offer some e/w value if it comes to a small group sprint for 2nd or 3rd place. Matteo Trentin has also been going well, making the cut in GW, but had to settle for 3rd behind Wout and Nizzolo, he rued a bad gear selection as the sprint kicked off. His record in this race isn't great though, 13th in the 2017 edition is the only time he has finished in the top 20 in 8 attempts. 

Alexander Kristoff won't be far off, nor will Soren Kragh Andersen, Tiesj Benoot, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan Kung, Sonny Colbrelli and Christophe Laporte. Tim Wellens, John Degenkolb and Tosh Van Der Sande head Lotto Soudal but I think top 20 at best for them, although TVDS rode well in DDV to take 5th, and could be a fun bet to take a top 10 place at massive odds. 

So how does it go then and how will it be won? Well I think that we could see a lot of action earlier in the race than usual, a bit like last year, with Alaphilippe likely to try to kick things off on the Marlboroghstraat, the Valkenberg or the Berg Ten Houte, to whittle down the support riders of the likes of MVDP and WVA. The Kwaremont and Paterberg duo will then see further attacks and whittling down, and by the time they head towards the Taaienberg there might not be too many still in contention. 

Barring incidents or accidents, you would expect the top 3 to be still in contention at this point, unless MVDP does start to show that he is indeed starting to feel the effects of a hectic spring.. Peter Sagan, Van Baarle, the other QuickSteppers, Stuyven and the like are probably not going to be far off, and the rest will probably be in a group 30-40" back. 

Looking at the clip Sporza posted during the week of Wout scorching up the cobbles of the Kwaremont, I think he'll be looking to make a move there and put pressure on the likes of Alaphilippe, who might not be able to follow. In fact, if he goes up that fast Sunday, I don't think many will be able to stay with him at all. 

If they are still together though I would expect Alaphilippe to give it all he's got on the Paterberg last time up in an effort to shift Wout and MVDP, that gradient is more his sort of hunting ground, but will he be able to hold them off on the run in to Oudenaarde? I doubt it. Others like DVB, Kung, Vanmarcke, Asgreen, Lampaert and Stuyven are probably going to have to try something from far out, they won't win if it comes to a sprint versus the top 3 guys. Senechal won't mind if it comes to a sprint though, he would fancy his chances against all bar Wout. 

I think though that this is Wout's race. I think the team will work well for him, with Eenkhorn, Van Hooydonck and the rest looking after him until he starts to rip it apart. I think he will be active early and I think he will have them all on the stretch from a long way out. I expect him to go for it on the Kwaremont and there won't be many left by the time they hit the Paterberg. And if it comes to a sprint between him and most others, I think he wins. 

I wouldn't be surprised if MVDP had a disappointing day, there have been a few warning signs for me in recent races, and it could come to a head on Sunday. Alaphilippe should be close, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he had a bad day too, he didn't look great in DDV, and apparently told MVDP at one point that he wasn't feeling good at all.

That could leave the door open for the other QuickSteppers to go for a podium spot, and at the prices, and based on his ability, Senechal is a better bet to me than Asgreen, the 18 with Skybet paying 4 places sounds ok to me, even if the top 2 or 3 come home on their own, he could well lead the sprint for 3rd/4th home to land the place money. And if he's on a really good day, and the top 3 fail to make a clean break from the rest, he could well take the win too. 

Lots and lots of bets available on the race, more than I've ever seen I think for a one-day race, some of the bets I liked are below.. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Wout Van Aert at 10/3 with William Hill

0.5pts e/w on Florian Senechal at 18/1 with Skybet paying 4 places. 

Antony Turgis to finish in top 10 - 2pts at 2.38 with SkyBet 

Alexander Kristoff to finish top 10 - 2.63 with Skybet

Dylan Van Baarle to finish in top 10 - 2pts at 2.2 with Skybet

Gianni Vermeersch to finish in top 10 - 1pt at 8/1 with Betway

Degenkolb to finish in the top 20 - 2pts at 5/4 with Will Hill

Trentin to finish in the top 20 - 3pts at 4/6 with Will Hill

Matchbets

Turgis to beat Stuyven - 2pts at evens with various

Degenkolb to beat Garcia Cortina - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Kung to beat Valgren - 3pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Vermeersch to beat Van Hooydonck, Van Aert to beat Van Der Poel and Oliver Naesen to beat Pidcock - 2pts on the treble at 15/8 with Bet365