Details

Published on Saturday, 29 February 2020 11:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 1st March 2020, 200kms

After the cobbles and the hellingen of the Omloop, the sprinters will be hoping for their chance to shine on the second day of this weekend's double-header, with the flatter parcours of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. 

I say 'supposedly', because three of the last four editions of the race have been won by breaks - Jasper Stuyven powered away from them all in 2016 to record a stunning solo victory, in 2017 an elite group with Peter Sagan, Stuyven, Bennot, Rowe and Trentin held off the chasing pack and last year Bob Jungels produced an incredible performance to ride away from his breakaway companions with 16kms to go and hold off the chasers.

Jungels' win was really something special. He got in an initial break with Davide Ballerini and Magnus Cort Neilsen from Astana, Seb Langeveld from EF and Oliver Naesen from AG2R. With 27kms to go they had 46" and were holding the gap nicely. With a lot of the sprinters and their top team-mates over in the UAE, there was a chance that a strong break could hold on. 

There was a crash in the peloton with 26kms to go that took down Matteo Trentin, but he got up and chased back through the cars. With 19kms to go the gap was down to just 31" and with 17kms to go, with Trentin nearly back in the peloton it was just 24".. It looked like the sprinters' teams had it under control. 

Suddenly, out of sight of the cameras, initially, Jungles had attacked. The camera cut back from a dropped Cort to see Jungels riding away under the 1km to banner (but with still a circuit left) and his break companions all looking at each other, they were all cooked.. The replays showed he simply attacked off the front and no one could go with him. 

Incredibly, rather than reduce the gap, Jungels extended it on his own, and the gap stood at 36" with just 8.5kms to go, as Ballerini, Vandevelde and Naesen were reeled in. Trentin ran out of gas with 7.7kms to go while Jumbo, Cofidis, Lotto and Bora threw everything they had at the chase. With 3kms to go it was just 18" and they had him in their sights..

With 2.4kms to go Owain Doull attacked, Yves Lampaert, Jens Keukeleire and Niki Terpstra went with him as the gap stood at 20". But they were not going to catch Jungels, who powered all the way home for a superb victory. Doull attacked the others with 400m to go and held on to take 2nd from Terpstra, with Groenewegen sprinting from the pack to take 4th off of Lampaert on the line.  

Dylan Groenewegen did win it for the sprinters though in 2018 with a facile victory in the sprint, several bike lengths ahead of Démare and Colbrelli. Mark Cavendish was the last sprinter to win this race before that in 2015, and also won it in 2012 in a sprint. In between Tom Boonen won the sprint from Moreno Hofland and Sep Vanmarcke in 2014, but 2013's race was cancelled because of the weather. 

Many riders take part in both Omloop and KBK, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some riders just partake in one, the sprinters don't particularly like the Omloop, others just do the Omloop and don't make it to Sunday's race as they may have come to grief on Saturday!

A lot of the roads used in the old Omloop (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, and normally, with the Kwaremont and the Kluisberg coming 86kms and 80kms from the finish, they didn't really play such a key part in the race, as there was plenty of road left for the sprinters' teams to catch the breaks. 

This year though the organisers have made the route a lot tougher, with the Kwaremont now just 60kms from the finish and the Kluisberg just 53kms. They have added 75kms of new roads, and have added a lot more hills than usual, including La Houpe from the tougher side and up the Hotond. There is now also just one circuit at the finish instead of two, so it could mean that we see a strong, late break make it this year, the sprinters might not be able to reel them in on time. 

The weather could also be a big factor on Sunday, the forecast is for some rain, but it will also be very cold and windy. Temperatures could be as low as 3 or 4 degrees, but the winds could be gusting up to 45kmph, they'll have a tail-wind as they head back north towards Kuurne, but will have a 26kmph headwind on the finishing straight. 

The Route

Instead of the Wolvenberg, the first climb they hit will be the Volkegemberg  after just 32kms as they head east towards Zottegem, passing over the Eikenmolen on the way, then they head south and in to the main part of the course. Next it's the Bossenstraat after 78kms and down towards Ronse. They pass south through Ronse and over the new climb of the Mont Saint Laurent after 96kms as they approach the half-way point, it's 1300m at 7.8%, hitting a max of 17%.

They then head back north and pass over La Houppe after 111kms, this one is longer at 1900m, at an average of 4.8% and we should really see the race start to come alive now, especially as the Kanarieberg comes just 5kms later (1km at 7.7%). 

Back through Ronse, heading north this time to go over the Kruisberg (1.8kms at 4.8%), a well used climb in the Flanders races, but instead of turning right at the top like they do in the Ronde, they turn left and head towards the Hotond instead, just 2kms later at the 125km mark. It's long at 2.7kms, but averages just 3.1%.

They turn left, head south, then west, then north again and over the Cote de Treiu after 133kms, a tough little one, averaging 7% for 1.3kms. They loop around anti-clockwise to almost come back to the Cote de Trieu, but along the way they now pass over the Kwaremont with just 60kms left 

Down in to Kluisbergen and over the Kluisberg with just 53kms to go (1.1kms at 6%), and they now start on the flat run to home, heading north-west, through Kortrijk and on towards Kuurne where they do one lap of the 15km finishing circuit.  There are no major challenges on the final circuit, but the wind can play a part and stronger riders can ride away and cause splits, like the front five did two years ago and Doull and Co. did last year.

The sprint finish will be in to a head-wind, so the sprinters will have to time it right as it is a wide-open 500m long road, some will go too early and risk blowing up.  All in all, there's 2150m of climbing on the course, a tough day in the saddle for a so-called 'sprinters race'. 

Click here for a nice video guide to the course. 

Preview

So the course has changed a lot this year, and it is a lot harder than before. I know from speaking to a pro this week that they are very aware of how much harder it looks and thinks that it will be a lot harder for the sprinters this year. Also, there's a surprising absence of Jumbo Visma from the race, so no Dylan Groenewegen, and one less strong team to try to pull back a break. 

I think that we will get a very select group of maybe less than 30 riders will fight it out this year. The extra climbs will see to a lot of the sprinters and will strip out the weaker and the less than 100% fit riders.. And if that doesn't do it, the race will be well and truly at boiilng point by the time they hit the Kwaremont and the Kluisberg this year and only the strongest will survive. 

It's a short preview this one as I am out all Saturday afternoon and I'm getting my thoughts down early.. But I've been thinking about this during the week, and if you read my preview of OHN, you'll know what I alluded to a number of points and fancies. Of course, depending on how OHN goes on Saturday, these thoughts might go out the window, I'll try to update the preview late Saturday evening if that is the case. 

First man on my list is Matteo Trentin though, I think his mind is definitely set on this, and it looks tailor-made for him. A cold, wet, hard day in the saddle, with plenty of tough climbs and cobbles. He said this week that "the two races are a bit different and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne probably suits me a bit better but we will take things day by day". Greg and the team will look after him and just make sure he makes the final selection, if he does, then he has a big chance and is a decent price I think at 14/1. 

Sonny Colbrelli will be licking his lips at a course like this, he'll love it I think. He warmed up for this with a training run in Andalucia, it was a bit disappointing to not see him involved at the front too much, but he then went and finished a very impressive 10th in the TT to show us that the legs are in fact in really good shape. 3rd in the sprint in 2018 behind Groenewegen, he crashed out last year. It will be all about Colbrelli I think for Bahrain and Bole, Sieberg, Teuns and Haussler will look after him and will hopefully ensure that he gets in to the winning move in the last 60kms. 

Another hard man for a day like this is of course Alexander Kristoff, he will love this race and the conditions. Again, if he can get to the finish in the lead group, he'll really fancy it. The big challenge for him will be getting over the Kwaremont with the leaders, and staying with the big attacks on the Kluisberg when some will look to shake off the sprinters. 

UAE have a second option though with Jasper Philipsen, a rider who was going very well at the TDU, taking 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in four of the stages, but just couldn't land the win. He didn't have a great time of it in the Spring Classics last year though, and with only one win ever under his belt, it's very hard to have any faith in him delivering at just 14/1. 

Favourite for the race is Fabio Jakobsen, of course he's favourite as he looks the fastest sprinter here and he is with the all-conquering DQS team who won this last year. Jungels, Keisse, Lampaert and Stybar will look after him, but will also look to explode the race and send riders up the road in order to make other teams chase and shed riders one by one.

I can't have Jakobsen at that price though, I am not even sure he'll make it with the front group when things really kick off, I fear he might be left behind on the Kwaremont. And if Stybar and Lampaert make the front group, there will be no one to tow him back and they will be racing their own race.  

Cees Bol has taken a win already this season, taking the 3rd stage in the Algarve in style. A tall, rangy figure, he doesn't look like your typical sprinter, but he has a lot of power and has a number of decent wins to his name already from sprint finishes, including a stage in California ahead of Sagan and Philipsen, and in Norway ahead of home hero Kristoff.

He also of course won the Nokere Korse on that uphill, cobbled sprint finish last year ahead of Ackermann and Philipsen again, showing how well he goes on a cobbled course. He is quite inexperienced in these races though and getting to the finish with the leaders will be his big challenge.. If he does, he has a big chance. 

John Degenkolb is another tough man who won't mind cold and wet conditions and might be able to hang in there for a sprint finish. He was going alright in his training prep race in Valenciana, finishing 7th in the first sprint, 16th in the second, but got up for 3rd place in the last sprint, beating Kristoff and Trentin. His problem is his team - surprisingly, Lotto have a very weak and inexperienced team here, and it's very likely that he will be on his own after the Kwaremont, if he makes it.

His positioning hasn't been great in recent years and really could do with a Van der Sande or Kluge in the last 2kms to get him in the right place. If he can get on Trentin or Kristoff's wheel in the last 500m he will have a chance of a podium, but as much as I'd love to see him win it, I can't see it happening.  

Jasper Stuyven won this of course in 2016 and finished 2nd in 2017, but I can't see him win it in the same manner as he did in 2016, he won't be allowed just ride off the front. He does have a chance of course, depending on how hard a day it is. If it comes down to a handful of hard Classics men getting away in the last 50kms and staying away, then he might have a chance in the sprint, he has beaten the likes of Kristoff and Demare in the Brussels Classic at the end of last season, but generally would prefer a hillier finale than a flat sprint. 

An outsider to watch out for, and he will be easy to spot, is Tim Merlier riding for Alpecin Fenix. Easy to spot, because he's the current Belgian champion, winning the sprint ahead of the likes of Dupont, Van Aert, Gilbert, De Buyst, Theuns and Philipsen. Getting to the finish will be hard for him though, he's only ever ridden in the 2nd and 3rd division of cycling, I'd be wanting 40/1 on him rather than 20/1. 

Of course the likes of GVA, Edward Theuns, Oli Naesen, Zdenek Stybar, Yves Lampaert, Mads Pedersen, Jens Keukeleire, Niki Terpstra, Michael Valgren and Jens Debuscherre will be involved in the main action of the day, you would think that almost all of them will make it in to the select group that decides the race. DQS will have to force it and try to create some further splits and maybe try to launch Stybar or Lampaert up the road, but they will be heavily marked.

Of that lot, an outsider that might give us a chance at a big price is Jens Debuscherre. He's won Dwars Door in the past on a wet and cold day, and he has finished 7th here in 2015 and 15th last year.. Depending on how few sprinters make it in a select group, he could be one of the fastest at the finish, he's an alright price at 50/1 for a bit of fun. 

As I said though, I think this will come down to a reduced group of maybe 20 riders riding together for the last 50kms and holding off a disorganised chase behind - as most teams will probably be represented in the front group there will be a lack of impetus from behind. Matteo Trentin has a big chance I think, but he has to play it clever and wait for the last minute in the sprint. Too often he gets a bit carried away and does too much work, attacks early or chases down attacks when he should be letting it to others. If he can get to the finish with the Classics hard men, he should come very close to winning. 

Alexander Kristoff should be up there too, the harder the day the better for him, but maybe it will be too fast on the hardest parts, rather than an all-round hard day. At 7/1 I'm not sure I want to risk it. Instead, Sonny Colbrelli and Jens Debuscherre are my two other picks, hopefully we'll get at least one of my three selections involved in the finale.  

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Matteo Trentin at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at 20/1

0.5pts e/w on Jens Debuscherre at 50/1

Match Bets

Cees Bol to beat Jakobsen - 2pts at 6/5

Tim Merlier to beat Jasper Philipsen - 1pt at 11/10