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Published on Thursday, 08 May 2014 00:10

Giro d'Italia Outsiders 

Could there be an upset from an outsider?

Two years ago Ryder Hesjedal sprung a 50/1 surprise when he beat Joaquim Rodriguez by the tiny margin of just 16 seconds. In third place was another surprise in Thomas de Gendt who pulled off a performance he has never come close to repeating since. Is there a dark horse lurking out there that could pull off a performance like that this year? 

I'll start with one of my favourite outside chances - the man with one of the hardest names to write in cycling Przemyslaw Niemiec! Surprisingly old at 34 years of age, Niemiec has worked his way up to the top level the hard way, through Continental teams and then as a leading Domestique at Lampre. He started to show though towards the end of 2012 that he could make an impact in a Grand Tour with a good 15th place at the Vuelta. 

He followed that in 2013 with 9th in Tirreno, 7th in Catalunya and 6th in Trentino before going on to take an excellent 6th in the Giro 12 months ago. Two stages in succession marked out his versatility when he took 3rd on the hard stage 15 to the summit of the Col du Galibier, and follwed that with an equally impressive 3rd in stage 16 which had a completely different finish with a short climb just before a flat finish. 

He is now the undisputed team leader with Horner out and although his prep for the race doesn't look great, he was showing signs of coming in to form in Catalunya with a 10th place in stage 3 before getting ill and suffering on stage 4 and then abandoning. He came back well though at Trentino and landed the each-way bets at 8/1 by securing 3rd on the podium, in a race which saw him finish no lower than 12th place over the four stages. 

He struggled on some of the climbs but his diesel engine kept chugging and he managed to get back to the leaders and pass them in a couple of the stages. He might struggle on some of the shorter, sharper climbs, but expect him to be up there on the longer climbs and he seems to have the ability to keep going when other collapse completely. At 50/1 he is worth a small each-way bet and the 9/1 with BetVictor to finish in the top 3 looks interesting too. I have backed both.

Nicholas Roche, like Dan Martin and Philip Deignan is doing something that they could never have foreseen happening to them in their careers - starting the Giro d'Italia in Ireland! But Nicholas has a lot to thank his dad for from that point of view as it is thanks to his victory in 1987 that the race is there. 

Roche has a very good 2013, capped by an excellent stage win in the Vuelta. His climbing will need to be absolutely at its best for this race to give him any chance but he has been putting in a huge amount of training on Mount Etna and the reports I am getting is that he is in very good shape. He didn't really show it at the Tour de Romandie but a solid training ride still saw him take 19th place on the GC. He had a bad day on the big mountain stage in to Aigle, as although he finished in a respectable 22nd, he lost nearly six minutes. 

I'm sure though that he will not have been too disappointed with that and he comes here fully fired up to make the most of the race. I think he will do better in the Barolo and Mountain TT than people might think he will and I think he will be able to hang in with the likes of Evans, Scarponi, Pozzovivo, and co, but maybe not the Rodriguez/Quintana double act. 

I wouldn't be surprised too to see Tinkoff Saxo try to blow it apart on the stage to Dublin, especially if it's as wet and wild as forecast. They could try to catch some GC men napping and look to put Roche in a good position leaving Dublin. He's 33/1 for a podium, but although that is a big, tempting price, I think that 3rd to 10th is where he will finish. So Paddy Power's 5/2 for a top 10 finish looks good to me, there is 9/4 available in a number of other bookies.

His team-mate Rafal Majka could also be a dark-horse for this race, but I guess it comes down to how his captain is feeling and whether he is given the opportunity to really go for it. He didn't ride as well as I expected him to in Romandie, but he did well at the Criterium International, winning the young riders jersey and taking 4th overall in the GC. 3rd in Il Lombardia and 2nd in Milano-Torino last year, they were too excellent performances on tough Italian roads. 7th in the Giro last year with a number of excellent top 10 places, he should be top 10 material at worst again this year but 2/5 for top ten is too short. 50/1 for the overall looks interesting though and I had half a point each-way on him.  

Michele Scarponi may be a former winner of this race, albeit that it was handed down to him when it was stripped form Contador. He has had a solid if not spectacular year so far with top 10 finishes in Andalucia, Trentino and Tirreno and he will have a good team of youngsters around him here with the likes of Aru and Landa. I feel though that the zip has gone out of his legs now and he will struggle on some of the tougher mountain stages. He should be able to hang in there on the longer ones until the little guys dance up the road, but he could lose lots of time in the last few kms of those stages. 

I think he will also struggle badly on the Zoncolan so prices of 25/1 don't appeal to me in the slightest. In fact, I think young Aru and Landa could be two that could show up their team leader as they could pull off some surprising performances. Landa is as big as 200/1 with Paddy Power and Aru is 125/1 with several, and they might be worth a small investment each-way.

Fabio Aru is a good climber who has some impressive stage race results on his palmares already, at just 23 years of age. Last year he took 42nd in the Giro and 6th in the young riders competition, which wasn't bad for a 22 year-old. He also placed 4th in Trentino and followed that up with 7th at Trentino this year, featuring 4 top 10 finishes. He may find this year's Giro hard, but it will be interesting to see how he goes, both on the short and the long climbs. 

Wilco Kelderman is being mentioned by a few as one with an outside chance, and at 150/1 he would be a nice price to pull off a Hesjedal style shock! He's a very strong rider who took 17th place in the Giro last year, despite working for Gesink. He can climb well and he is very good against the clock. Those traits put together could see him climb up the leaderboard while others struggle in one or other of the two disciplines.

We haven't seen a lot of him this year but he did take 5th in the Volta a Algarve, a very solid 13th in Paris-Nice and 12th in Catalunya. He is still very young but could be a superstar in years to come. I am looking forward to seeing how he goes and I am seriously thinking about the 2/1 on him for a top 10 place..

Robert Kiserlovski is another interesting one because, although he is the team leader he has two team-mates who could equally go very well in Julian Arredondo and Riccardo Zoidl. Kiserlovski was a huge help to Chris Horner when he won the Vuelta last year, and was clearly one of the strongest riders in the race. He will love the long hard climbs in the last week and should go well against the clock too, but if the first two weeks have been very hard he might fade towards the end of the race like he did in the Vuelta and the Giro last year.

7th in Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya show that he is in reasonable shape this year but he didn't have a great Pais Vasco, finishing in 16th place, losing 51" on the climb up to the finish in Eibar won by Wouter Poels. I feel though that he may struggle on the harder stages here and I think 10th to 20th is where he will finish.

Damiano Cunego got some people excited with his performances in the early part of the season. He followed up a good 4th place in the G.P. Città di Lugano with a more impressive 4th in the Strade Bianche, finishing just behind Valverde and ahead of Kreuziger, Cancellara and Evans. He disappointed in Tirreno though following those good results by coming home in 27th place. He did better in Pais Vasco with 4 top 10 placings on his way to 11th overall. I think though that he will be found out on this course and could well finish down the field in 20th-30th place.