Details

Published on Saturday, 27 May 2017 17:12

Giro d'Italia St 21

Monza to Milan

Sunday 28th May, 28kms 

What a dramatic end to this race we have had.. and it all comes down to the final TT, as I'm sure the organisers had hoped and dreamed for. 28kms separates Tom Dumoulin from victory in the Giro, it's in his hands now. 

A downhill TT for 28kms, can anyone beat Dumoulin? I sincerely doubt it. They start in the famous Monza motorsport circuit, and after spending the first 8kms or so in the grounds of the track, they pass through the first time check after 6.6kms in Monza. 

Stage 20 Recap

What a dramatic stage we had again today. As we expected, it kicked off on the fantastic climb of the Monte Grappa, but it wasn't Nibali or Quintana who kicked things off, but Katusha and Zakarin who signalled his intentions early.. The pack splintered, Dumoulin was struggling for a while but regained his composure and looked comfortable from then on. Yate and Mollema were dropped, along with all bar about 10 guys, but it came back together on the descent and they charged towards the final climb. 

Dries Devenyns and Dylan Teuns did a magnificent job in the break of the day, two Belgians leading the way up the climbs, with Teuns dropping Devenyns with 26.5kms to go. Teuns was finally caught with just 20kms or so to go as the race exploded behind. Zakarin and Pozzovivo attacked, Nibali, Quintana and Pinot chased.. Dumoulin rode a steady tempo behind with Jungels helping him out. It was a fantastic battle over the last 20kms as the leaders held a small 20" gap over Dumoulin's group.. In the end we finally, finally... landed a winner, with Pinot riding brilliantly to do exactly what I expected him to and win the sprint.

Zakarin won the matchbet, but incredibly Mollema lost to Reichenbach by ONE place to bust the treble, it could have been a great day otherwise. Jungels is indeed looking good for the White now, he should take 28" off of Yates in the TT, and Dumoulin should take victory in the overall too after that great performance today. Formolo has sneaked in to 10th now with the demise of Kruijswijk with stomach problems, and Pozzovivo also secures a top 10 finish to land that bet too.

Three out of four of the overall head-to-heads have won, I think we were unucky with Yates for the top 6 and his head-to-head with Mollema, the crash screwed us. Oh and the each-way on the 25/1 on Luis Leon and the 11/2 on Omar Fraile for the KOM both paid out. Not so good with the Points bets, in hindsight it was stupid to back Nizzolo with so little racing in his legs, but Modolo was very disappointing. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about this route, it starts in the Monza motorsport circuit and spends almost 8kms riding around the confines of the track before passing through the first timecheck after 8.8kms. From there, the road heads generally south-west in a bit of a zig-zag line as they head towards the centre of Milan. The second time check comes in Sesto San Giovanni with 17.4kms gone. The road is generally pretty straight all the way to Milan, but there are three sharp turns inside the last kilometre, but nothing really to worry about. Nothing really to worry about either with the weather, winds of only 4-5mph shouldn't make any difference, it's a slight cross/headwind on the way to Milan.

Contenders

Plain and simple, Tom Dumoulin wins tomorrow. Both the stage and the overall!! I can't see anything but a win for TomDum.. He says that the course doesn't suit him as much as the first TT and that he is just going to do his best, but I think he's bluffing. His powerful engine is perfect for this downhill run to Milan, and he knows exactly what needs to be done to win the race... beat Quintana by 54" and he wins the race and can make them all eat their words.

He was head and shoulders above everyone in the first TT, beating Geraint Thomas by 49", Bob Jungels by 56" and Vasil Kiryienka by 2'. Some are thinking that he is shattered after all his efforts this week, but they all are shattered.. It's been a brutally hard Giro, this week especially and they were all out on their feet today. Other concerns are that his last three flat TTs haven't been great, finishing 14,11, 13.

He has shown today that he still has a lot of power in his legs, the way he was able to keep coming back to the leaders and finish so close to the winner's group at the finish. It is the sharp accelerations that kill him, when he can just keep rolling and getting the power down he does very well. I think he will crush it again tomorrow and win by 30" or more and the 8/11 with 365 looks a gift to me, I expected him to be 1/2.

Who can beat him? Vasil Kiryienka is 2nd favourite at just 5/2 and that is too short to me. I know many fancied him for the first TT, which I couldn't understand, and he didn't even make the podium in the end, finishing 5th, 2'00 behind Dumoulin. And it's not like the distance will be better this time around, he likes longer TTs, not shorter by 10kms. Ok, he's practically has had a rest week, not a rest day in the last week or so, we've barely seen him, with 80th being his best finishing position since the TT. Yeah, he might go out there and crush it, he could be in the hot seat for a long time as he is the 60th rider off but I think Dumoulin is too strong for him and 5/2 is no bet. 

Bob Jungels has been magnificent in this Giro and will come away from this race with a stage win, a top 10 in the GC and more than likely the White Jersey too. I think he will do a big TT tomorrow, he might have wasted a lot of energy today working so hard for Dumoulin, but he was not just working for Dumoulin, he was ensuring he kept his position and his chance of winning the White in the TT too. He knows what he has to do too, beat Yates by 29" and he wins the jersey. I don't think he'll win it, but a podium spot is very possible, just there's not a lot of value in him at just 5/1, he could have an off day.. 

Jos Van Emden did ok in the first TT, despite LottoNL claiming beforehand that he wasn't going to be pushing hard as he was needed to support Kruijswijk in the mountains. He'll like this course too, he'll be able to put the power down on the long straights and it's not too long too, he doesn't like the longer TTs. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is a good time triallist too and actually did a brilliant TT in the first test here on stage 10 to finish 4th, finishing 20" ahead of Kiryienka. He looks a big price at 16/1, but I think he'd have liked it a but hillier. He has also put in a lot this week and rode quite hard on Friday's stage in the break. 

Vincenzo Nibali has a podium spot to defend, he currently sits in 2nd but he will be under attack from Dumoulin and Pinot.. He actually did an excellent TT in the first stage here, finishing 6th, ahead of JVE and Amador. I think he will pull off a big ride, but I don't think he'll be in the first 3. 

Marcin Bialblocki was quietly fancied for the TT first time around but he finished way down in 29th place, 3'14" behind Dumoulin, He's only 18/1 for this tomorrow and I can't understand that price, he should be at least treble that price I think. Michael Hepburn could go well, he was 13th in the first TT, but still quite a way behind Dumoulin. He's yet another who's been waiting for this and just surviving until Sunday, but I think a top 10 at best for him.

Tobias Ludvigsson is one that has me a little interested, but only because he was apparently putting out some big power numbers this week on the climbs. He had a nightmare in the first TT, finshing over 6 and a half minutes behind Dumoulin, it looked like another confirmatin of the fact that he's not as good as some people seem to want to believe he is.

Jan Barta can go ok, as can Pinot, Tratnik and Amador, but I think they'll all be chasing Dumoulin's shadow. There's not a great deal of value in the others, Jungels maybe e/w at 11/2 or Van Emden at 8/1, but I think we'll just look at some matchbets instead as well as the win bet on Tom Dum. 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 4/6 with WillHill (the 8/11 with 365 is gone..)

Matchbets

Amador to beat Monfort, Sanchez to beat Ludviggson, Clement to beat Izagirre and Dumoulin to beat Jungels - 2pts on the fourfold at 3.1/1

Hepburn to beat Bialblocki - 2pts at 11/10

Jungels to beat Kiryienka - 2pts at 21/20 with Will Hill