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Published on Thursday, 27 May 2021 20:32

Giro d'Italia St 19

Abbiategrasso - Alpe Di Mera

Friday 28th May, 176kms

Back in to the high mountains again with another tough stage, but not the toughest of the race, on paper anyway, but does finish with a bang on the Alpe di Mera, a climb making its debut in the race. 

A gentle opening 70kms, where they now skip the Materone climb that was originally on the route, following the cable car tragedy earlier this week. Instead they are doing the Cat 4 Alpe Agogna, then a small lump of the Passo della Colma and a 30km climb to the finish, starting gently but kicking up sharply for the Alpe di Mera for the last 9.4kms, averaging 9.2%, with several sections in double digits. 

After Bernal's crisis on stage 17, we are sure to see the other GC guys, Yates and Almeida in particular, go for the jugular today to see if it was just a bad day or the first signs of a possilble collapse, Yates-style. 

Stage 18 Review

Again, as we expected, we had a huge battle to get in to the break. DQS were relentless, with Honore, Cavagna and Keisse all trying their luck. Felline also tried, but like with Cavagna before him, found himself with just one other guy and that failed too. Eventually a large group got away, but they were held at around 25" for a long time as others who had missed the move tried to chase it down, but they were repeatedly shut down by Sagan who bottled going for the stage win in favour of letting a big break go and take all the points on the stage. 

Ulissi was in there, as was Bettiol, two of the fancied riders for the stage, and we had Cavagna. But there were a lot of good riders in there, including Vendrame, Roche, Arndt, Bevin, Covi and Consonni. They built a huge lead, almost 15 minutes with 50kms to go and it just kept going up. 

Entering the hills the attacks starting firing all over the place, with Bevin and Roche and Bettiol trying first, but it came back together. Then Cavagna shot out from the pack like a TGV and instantly opened up a big gap. He kept pulling it out until it reached 32" at one point and it looked all but over, with his price hitting 1.35, where I laid out my stake. As the time hovered around 25" his price bounced around 1.5 and Bettiol went out to around 6 at one point. Suddenly, Bettiol jumped in pursuit, Roche trying to stick with him. 

Cavagna found the hills just too much and Bettiol came roaring up to him and straight past him. A massive collapse from Remi, and even the place bets, which I thought were in the bag at least, went up in smoke. Consonni finished very fast to take 2nd off of a Roche, who almost pulled off what his cousin did 24 hours ago. Ulissi was the disappointment from the break, he could only manage 5th after not responding in time to the attacks going on around him. 

The peloton came home over 23 mins behind Bettiol and DSM placed riders 3rd, 4th and 15th, lifting them to the top of the team classification, with Trek right back in it again with Mosca finishing 10th. 

The Route

West to Novara for 25kms, then north and in to the Alps. The road is more or less flat for 70kms like on the orignal profile, but this time, instead of going over the Materone, they go over a small Cat 4 climb, the Alpe Agogna (12.8kms at 2.9%)

12kms of a descent back down to the shore of Lake Maggiore, a false flat for 20kms through the intermediate sprint and they start climbing again, easy at first but then on to the Cat 3 Colma - 7.7kms at 6%, but featuring 5kms at 7.3% before it eases back near the top. 10kms of a descent, and they start on the drag up the valley towards the intermediate at Scopetta. Just 5kms later they are on the final climb. 

The Alpe di Mera is being used for the first time in the Giro and it looks a tough climb. Take away the 3.3% first kilometre and the average gradient is well over 9% for the 8.8kms left and it gets steeper the further up you go, hitting 10.4% average for the last 4.7kms through a series of switchbacks - there are 15 in total in just the last 5kms, one on average every 300m or so. It continues steep all the way to the finish, where at least the roads are wide and good quality. 

Contenders

This final climb is nasty - not quite as nasty as Saga di Ala or Zoncolan, but 5kms of it are 10% or higher. The break probably makes it again, although it could be another big battle to get in it with the flat start for 70kms. So the climbers who will fancy it will have a hard job getting in the break again, Dan Martin might be looking to his team-mates again to time trial him in to the break and help pull it away. It's a much shorter stage though at 166kms, so the break won't have as long to build up a big lead, especially if it takes 30-40 kms for it to go like today. 

The big question now is how is Bernal?? What happened on Wednesday, and was it just a brief bad patch and he'll have gotten over it after the 'rest day' today, or was it the first signs that he's starting to feel the effects of the three weeks hard racing, and the back is starting to suffer? Has he, like I speculated a few days ago, shot his bolt too soon, and was expecting this sort of thing to happen and he hopes that he can hang on to his lead?

It was on the steeper slopes of around 11-12% that he really struggled on the Ala, there is quite a bit of this climb around 10-11%, so if he's starting to struggle, we could see him under pressure again. Watching today, all didn't seem quite right with him. He was back at the team cars twice today, cameras showed him coming back to the peloton with a team-mate.. Maybe once was for a toilet stop, but twice? Maybe not.. Wonder was he feeling a bit ill or something. Also, his body language in the interview after didn't look great to me, he looked nervous and worried, not the calm and happy Egan we've been seeing up to now. 

So Ineos will have a big say in how the race is run again tomorrow, they will probably want a break to go early so that the race settles down and they can just start a steady pace. If Bernal is feeling it a little, last thing he will want is for there to be a 50kmph battle for the first hour. Then, once it goes, Ineos will go in to defensive mode. Keep it steady over the first climb, and in the valley up to the second climb.

They might find that BEX, EF or Bahrain, or maybe even DQS take it up as they hit the Cat 3 Colma, there's 1.5kms near the bottom that average around 7.2%, and they can maybe try to isolate Bernal from as many of his support men as possible. If Kangert, Nieve, Meyer, Bettiol, Carr, TVG and Keukeleire push it hard they could strip out a few of his men, but at least strip out a lot of the peloton too. If Bernal is feeling bad in any way, they may even put him under pressure here too.. But it's not too long a climb though and eases back to 5-6% for the rest of the climb. 

There's only 40kms to go from the top of that hill, 10kms of which are descending, then it starts to drag for 18kms at just 1.2%.. But if you're chasing trying to get back on, it will be very tiring. The final climb starts with just 10kms to go, a little like the Sega di Ala, and if they really want to test Bernal, they will need to keep the pressure on right from the bottom. Also, Yates will be looking to take time out of Caruso to at least try to secure 2nd place, Caruso was on the limit on Wednesday and couldn't even muster an attack to try to get away from a struggling Bernal. So I expect Yates to attack early on this climb, he needs to take lots of time back, no point attacking with 1km to go. 

The 10% section from 4.8kms to go looks the perfect spot to attack, not too soon, but also not too late - nearly 5kms, with the next 3kms averaging nearly 10.5%, just the sort of terrain that Yates skipped away on in Wednesday's stage. I wouldn't be suprised if he was joined by Almeida, given the legs he showed on Stage 17, or it could even be that Yates responds to an Almeida attack and they go away together from the rest. 

Carthy and Vlasov really look to be struggling now, Vlasov was gone a long way down the mountain and Carthy not long after - he just can't respond to the fast accelerations of first Bernal, and now Yates. Hard to see them bouncing back tomorrow. Romain Bardet was showing great promise up until Wednesday too, but the steeper gradients did him in, don't know if he can outshine Yates or Almeida in the form they are in. 

Bet365 have just opened with Yates the 4/1 fav, with Bernal 2nd fav at 5/1 with Almeida.. now, based on Wednesday, you'd have to be on Yates in a matchbet, so you'd have to say if you think Yates is going out all guns blazing tomorrow to take back time, he probably wins the stage. And even if Bernal is feeling a little better, Yates looks to be getting his legs back and might be able to follow him this time, especially if he's lost a little of the spark. 

Of course, it could have been just a brief off day after the rest day for Bernal and he might be back to his imperious best, but it's hard to know. Also, one detail that will help him a little this time around is that he reconned the final climb of the Alpe before the Giro, he'll know it a lot better than the Sega, which he admitted after he hadn't gotten to know at all, and struggled on the steep parts. 

Dan Martin is just 13/2, and I was thinking if there was anyone I wanted to be on for the break, and for this finish it would be Martin, as he seems to have great legs right now. And he's still over 4 minutes behind Foss in 9th place and 13'37" down on GC, so he might still have the freedom to go stage hunting. Or does he do the calculation and think the break might not make it today with BEX, EF and the rest possibly sensing blood, and decides to stick with the GC group.. he would still have a chance of a top result by attacking from that group in the last 5kms. 

George Bennett doesn't appeal at 20/1 in the slightest, Diego Ulissi is just 22/1 and he had a tough day in the saddle today again and blew his chance of a stage victory, hard to see him go again tomorrow, and if it's a GC day it will be too fast for him up front I think. Lorenzo Fortunato seems to have amazing legs still, he finished 12th on Sega di Ala, ahead of Bardet, Moscon, Vlasov and Bettiol on Saga di Ala, maybe he'll fancy trying his luck in the break tomorrow as no-one remembers who finished in 17th place, but he'll never be forgotten as a two-time Giro stage winner!

Koen Bouwman wanted to get in the break today I was told late in the morning, but looks like he got the news too late too though as he missed the break and tried to bridge, but it was far too late. He wants to do it almost every day, but just can't maket he right breaks or else gets dropped at the wrong times like on the descent of stage 16. 

Hard to pick out who else can be out there all day and hang on on a climb like this with the EF/BEX/Bahrain guys chasing, or Ineos hammering it if Bernal is feeling better. Michael Storer crashed earlier in the week apparently and I was told to stay away from him for breaks, but the 16th place on Saga di Ala looks to me like he could be recovered and going well. We tried him a few times earlier in the race to no success, but now he's shown form like that maybe it's worth having a go again. DSM are sure to try to get guys in the break now that they are leading the teams competition again. 

Louis Vervaeke also seems to be climbing well for Alpecin, he was 4th on stage 4 to Sestola from the break and was 26th on Sega di Ala, ahead of Ciccone, Fabbro and guys like that. If he can get in the break he might have a chance at a big price. Trek will look to get guys in the break again as they are right back in the teams competition, but none of them look to have the legs to win it, Mollema is an endless disappointment, Brambilla just can't seem to get it right either, and Nibali is half-crocked.

The break has a chance, but a smaller chance than recent days I think, given the aggressive start that we might see, the shorter stage, and the likelihood of a lot of pressure being put on at the front by those looking to test Bernal and Ineos. Yates and Almeida will test him I think regardless, and if Yates has the legs he had Wednesday he has a big chance of winning the stage.

He did run out of steam though after that effort he put in, and on the easier slopes around 4.8%, Almeida easily dropped him and quickly put 17" in to him. This is a very different finish though, and stays around 10% all the way to the line, which might suit him more than Almeida, who was struggling a bit on the steeper slopes of the Ala. 

I think that Yates will go all in tomorrow on this final climb, he needs time, and even if he doesn't get time, this is probably his best chance of a stage victory from the race, and a chance to take 2nd place. I don't think Caruso is capable of following him, and he knows it, he'll probably just ride steady to try to minimise his losses and try to hang on as best he can until the TT. 

Martin might wait until Saturday for another go at an epic stage victory, so I'm going to skip him, although I will be backing him if I see him trying to get in the break or if he makes the break. Almeida won't be far off I think and if it is a GC day, looks solid for a top 3 result too. A few darts for the break too at big prices just in case. 

Recommendations:

2pts Simon Yates at 4/1 with Betway

2pts Joao Almeida to place at 9/10 with Unibet

0.3pts win on Michael Storer at 40/1 with Bet365

0.3pts win on Louis Vervaeke at 100/1 with Unibet

0.3pts win on Lorenzo Fortunato at 28/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Carthy to beat Vasov - 2pts at 11/8

Petilli to beat Warbasse and Storer to beat Bettiol - 2pts at evens with 365