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Published on Tuesday, 25 May 2021 00:02

Giro d'Italia St 17

Canazei - Sega Di Ala 

Wed. 26th May, 193kms 

The first of three summit finishes in the next four stages, this is a game of two halves as they say, or even three thirds.. The first third is more or less downhill, a third on flat roads and then two Cat 1s to finish the stage. 

They come back after the rest day to a route that travels along the Val di Fassa, the Val di Fiemme and the Piné Plateau, descending all the way to Trento where the intermediate sprint 1 is located. It then runs along the river Adige for 50kms but then the landscape changes dramatically with two tough climbs in the final 50kms. 

Rest day legs could cause a number of guys big problems, after spinning all day they will suddenly need to drop it in to the small ring and start climbing again, and with some really steep (9-11%) sections on the San Valentino, some could  start to suffer early in the stage and there might be no way back for them. 

The Sega di Ala has only been used once before as the finish to a major race, with a stage of the Giro del Trentino that finished up there in 2013, won by none other than Vincenzo Nibali, just a matter of weeks before going on to win the Giro.. Can the shark bite again on the Sega? 

The good news is that the weather is finally starting to look a little better, with sun expected all day and temperatures of around 20 degrees. There is a south-westerly wind blowing up to 10mph though and that will be in their faces all day as they head south-west to the loop with the two final climbs. 

Stage 16 Review

So there was consternation this morning with the rumours flying about that the route was going to be changed and that they might be cutting out the Passo Pordoi because of dangerous descents in the bad weather. The reality was worse than the rumours though, with the Fedai and Pordoi taken out and the route shortened to 154kms, with the Giau becoming the Cima Coppi. It completely changed the dynamic of the KOM market, with two Cat 1s being removed from the stage, 80pts disappeared immediately. 

There was also consternation with the coverage, right from the start, with the horrendous weather conditions cutting live pictures more or less from the start of the race. Unseen to all, a break of some 21 riders got away, with our men Roche, Brambilla, Grosschartner, Pedrero, Bouwman and Formolo part of it, but it was a super-strong break with Almeida, Martin, Nibali, Fabbro, Tratnik, Bouchard and Vanhoucke.. The big loser was Bauke Mollema who missed out on the chance to challenge Bouchard for the KOM. 

Suddenly though when pictures came back, there was a split, with Nibali, Formolo, Almeida, Ghebrei, Izagirre and Pedrero after splitting off the front on the descent and they worked superbly together to pull away form the other guys, quickly building a lead of over 2 minutes to the chasers and 5'30" to the peloton with 80kms to go. 

With 50kms to go the second group had been absorbed by an Ineos-led peloton and the leader's gap had dropped to 4'38". And when EF went to the front, the gap melted. We lost pictures, didn't really see much more of the race, except to see Vlasov trailing as the idiot put his jacket in his back wheel and Yates also going out the back door. Then we just about saw Bernal attacking and going after Pedrero and Formolo who were less than a minute up the road. He not only caught them, but he left them in his wake to come home a briliant solo winner. 

Bardet and Caruso were sensational again too, coming home in 2nd and 3rd, just 27" back, dropping Ciccone, Carthy and the rest. Almeida did superb to stay with Carthy and Ciccone to finish 6th, just 1'21" behind Bernal, to lift him up to the top 10. Yates had a nightmare day, losing 2'37" and he dropped down to 5th. Evenepoel lost 24 minutes and dropped to 19th on the GC. 

Incredibly we had Grosschartner, Roche, Formolo, Brambilla, Bouwman and Pedrero - five of the six guys I picked - in the break, and ended up with nothing. For once, the break didn't win, even with such strong guys in it. Hard to believe though that 15 professional riders were not able to stay with the other 6 on a descent and blew their chances of a possible stage victory. And to cap it off, Vlasov puts his jacket in his wheel just as the race is kicking off so managed to drop himself from Carthy and never really recovered, and Bardet beats Caruso by a half a bikelength as they came home together to blow the matchbets. Just can't catch a break at the moment.  

The Route

A south-westerly descent out of the Dolomites that goes on for almost 90kms, it's interrupted by a couple of hills along the way, including the Cat 3 Sveseri which they go over after 58kms, it averages a tasty 9.3% for 2.9kms. But from 90kms gone t o140kms gone they are just cruising along the banks of the Adige, saving the legs for the final 50kms.

They actually loop around on themselves over the last 50kms, passing through Chizzola before starting on to the San Valentino at Avio. The Valentino is almost 15kms long at 7.6%, with 3 km sections that are 9.5%, 11% and 9.2% as they head back north-east, opposite to the direction they have been travelling all day. 

They plunge back down to the Adige valley, pass through Chizzola again, but this time after passing through the small town of Ala they fork off left to head south to the Sega di Ala. The Sega is another Cat 1, this one is shorter at 11.5kms but steeper overall at 9.6%. It is a much more uneven climb though, with several steep sections that will disrupt the rhythm and can cause some real damage to GC hopes if you're having a bad day. 

The first 6kms average 10.4%, with a kilometre at 11% and a kilometre at 12.8%. It then eases to 'just' 6.8% for a km before kicking up steeply again for a km at 16.9% with just 4kms to go, then 9% before easing a little for the last km to 4.8%. There are a lot of switchbacks on the lower, steeper slopes but the last 4kms are on pretty straight roads so they will be able to see those up the road and chasing, I think there will be guys all over the road at the top of this one. 

Contenders

So do we just back Bernal for every mountain stage from now on? The way he's riding at the moment it sounds like a more sensible plan than trying to rationalise and analyse and predict who is going to go in the break and who might win from it, only to be disappointed as Ineos crush our dreams.  I'm getting fed up of losing money on breakaway candidates who disappoint day after day.. 

Well the bookies seem to agree, as Bernal is the 10/3 favourite for this, with Ciccone next in the betting at 14/1, and inexplicably Evenepoel is next at 16/1.. Dan Martin, Pedrero and Formolo are 18/1, so we're now looking at the same guys we picked for Monday's stage, around the same prices or shorter, and none of them could lay a glove on Bernal so far in any of the hilly stages. 

The peloton, or should I say Ineos, would hope to keep the break on a pretty tight leash on this stage with the profile the way it is - the start is downhill, so they'll be able to keep a high tempo for the 90kms until the flat, and then there's 38kms along the flat where they should start to close it down further, as they might start to get help from EF, Israel and maybe even Trek and DQS if they fancy having a go on the two closing climbs. The headwind all day will not favour the breakaway's chances either. 

But it's hard to see who can do anything to stop Bernal in this form. He's winning in the pink jersey, he's attacking everyone and no on can stay with him. He looks like he could take any stage he wants at the moment. Yates just hasn't got it it seems, Carthy is fading and just not good enough, Ciccone can't stay with him when he attacks, but may have a chance if he can stay with Bernal to the finish, he showed he had a good kick on him Monday to leave Carthy and Almeida behind in the last 200m on the same gradient. 

11kms at nearly 10% for the final climb, if Ineos first, and then possibly EF or Astana look to push it, any break that has less than 3 minutes of a lead will surely be caught. And that's one scenario that could play out - Astana might be out to try to make amends for what happened to Vlasov Monday, he needs to make up 38" on Carthy to get back on the podium, plus he has Yates just 2" behind him, so he's fighting for positions now, seeing as the win is almost certainly out of reach. 

But Astana still haven't impressed me enough to say they can do something in this race, with Izagirre getting dropped on the final climb by Pedrero and Formolo, and they had no one to help Vlasov when he had his issue. But maybe they can try to tee up Vlasov for an attack, maybe Vino will have him pumped and ready for action after the rest day.

The only chance that the other GC guys have I think is if Ineos do for once decide to just try to pace it on the final climb until they run out of men and then EF or Astana or Trek take over to try to keep a high pace to try to discourage a Bernal attack and try to see if they can scrap it out for the win in a reduced group sprint.. But who is strong enough to stop Bernal? No one it seems, he just jumps and blows them all away. 

Sorry if I'm sort of repeating myself and rambling a bit, I'm just mulling all potential scenarios over in my head here as I write this, trying to figure out what could happen, and one potential scenario is that DQS load the break with 2-3 guys, maybe including Cavagna, Honore, Keisse and Evenepoel and with the downhill/flat opening 138kms or so, they absolutely gun it to try to get as much of a lead as possible for Evenepoel so that he can try to hang on over the remaining two climbs.

It is possible, Remco is out of the GC now and he will have the freedom to go. The question is, can he finish it off, or based on how easily he was dropped today and how much time he lost, will a better climber in the break take advantage of the work they've done and drop him on the Sega?

What about Trek? Ciccone is in 6th place, but is only 51" off the podium, or just 13" off 4th place. Maybe they might switch tact and stop guys going in the break so that they have men around him for the final climb to try to take it to Ineos and get Ciccone in to a position where he can attack and try to take back time on those above him? Having Ghebrei, Mollema, Nibail and Brambilla all pulling for him could see Ineos take a back seat for a while and Bernal play a bit more defensively - Ineos might not mind an easy day after rest day and with the two tough stages at the end of the week still to come.

But more than likely they will stick to their game plan up to now, which hasn't exactly brought them much reward, and send 2 or 3 guys up the road, in the hope they'll score big again on the team classification.. If Ineos let the break go again tomorrow, they could easily gain 10 minutes or more again. They currently lead Trek by 6'36", and if you took the 9/1 pre-race, you'll be pretty happy, they are now 8/13 favs, and we have Ineos covered too at 7/2 - I can't see anyone else winning it.

So again, we'll probably see Mollema, Brambilla and Nibali attacking, this is a climb after all where Nibali won in Trentino in 2013, so he might be tempted by the romanticism of winning there again. All sorts of rumours about injuries to his ribs and so on were flying about since his crash yesterday, but not only did he take to the start, but he got in the break and lasted a lot longer than some, probably (as we couldn't see) causing the split on the descent that got the 6 away. 40/1 seems generous enough considering the story, there are a lot worse riders shorter than that, but it's not for me. 

Well it's been a hell of a week for Qhubeka, with three stage wins in 5 stages, winning ever second stage, so by that logic, they win again tomorrow! But who.. Campanaerts won't win, but he might help the break get a good lead, teaming up with his Belgian/French mates at DQS for a Team TT.. Same with Walscheid.

The only guys who could win with the climbing in store are Kilian Frankiny and Mauro Schmid. We haven't seen a lot from Frankiny this Giro, or in fact, all season, and he's never won a pro race. But that didn't stop Schmid from taking stage 11. Schmid came home with the sprinters in stage 16, so he's either cooked after two weeks in the Giro or he's saving the legs for another go. Schmid is 400/1, Frankiny is 150/1, why not a tiny nibble at both. 

Nieve is very short at 20/1, the same price as Yates, I guess they're thinking that Yates might give up on GC now and let the likes of Nieve go free to hunt for stages. But he's been riding very poorly as far as I can see, I'd have him at 80/1 and not 20/1. And Yates, can't see it at 20/1 after Monday. 

And that's where I am now at midnight on Monday night, it just seems impossible to pick who could win, other than Bernal. I will probaby end up backing Bernal, I might wait for in play to see whether a break gets a good lead and we take a slightly bigger price, or maybe even try a few break candidates, but I'm going to mull it over a bit more and talk to my man to see if he's got any views before posting final choices tomorrow evening.. We don't have to rush in to this one for now. 

UPDATE - 19:00: So I've been thinking about this all day and been looking at what other people are saying on Twitter etc, and the general consensus is there is no consensus. Loads of picks being bandied about and splits between it being a GC day or a break day, much the same as my deliberations above. 

The Sega is a real brute of a climb though, the first 6kms are very steep and hard, almost Zoncolan steep, then there's the slight respite at 'only' 6.8% for 1km, then it hits almost 17% for a kilometre. What we saw on the Zoncolan stage was Ineos weren't bothered about chasing the break down and they let Fortunato take his stage win.

Now we're hearing that Bernal was desperate to take the Cima Coppi and the Queen stage while wearing the Maglia Rosa on Monday, so Ineos were probably prepared to chase, but in the end they didn't have to as Carthy got TVG, Bettiol and Carr to obliterate the field and set up Bernal for his attack. Now that he has the Queen stage, and two stages in total, and with two hard stages still to come in the mountains, will Ineos take a back seat again? It's very possible, and if so, who will want to chase to take Bernal to the final climb where he can attack away and win again?

EF might, as they need to put everyone in the red in order to get Carthy chugging along and maybe try to pull some time back on Caruso, or at least put more daylight between him and those behind him. The thing is, Vlasov reportedly said that he actually had great legs on Monday, but the incident with his jacket cost him dearly. He did recover very well from being dropped by the lead group, so if he has good legs like that, there's a possibility that he attacks and Bernal marks and then Bernal sits on his wheel to the finish, where maybe he gives him the stage, so as to not look greedy. 

So if Ineos don't pull, and if EF hold off on pushing until the Valentino, then the gap might be too big to the break and they could make it. It also depends of course on how early the break goes, and who's in it, if there's a big fight at the start and the likes of Almeida, Formolo and Martin are in it, some teams might chase and ride hard to try to protect their top ten placing - if Almeida took 5 minutes for example, he'd be heading towards the top 6 and Martin to the top 10. If Trek don't get their men in it, they'll be chasing too. Same for Movistar. 

But I think Movistar will eventually get men in the break, and the man they probably will want to be in there is Pedrero - he was flying on Monday and if the break had not been chased so hard by EF, he'd probably have won the stage. He traded to favourite at one point as he put Formolo, Izagirre, Nibali and the rest to the sword. He looked really good, and we know he comes good in the 3rd week of races, I'm prepared to give him another go as I think he will be in the mix again. 

Dan Martin is another I want to try again though, I think he will have a good chance from two scenarios here - firstly, if he makes the break again, but stays with it this time, then he has a big chance of winning on the final climb, he finished really strongly on the Giau Monday, despite being in the break earlier, and he also rode really well to finish 6th of the favourites on the Zoncolan, only a few seconds behind Caruso and Ciccone.

Secondly, if he does not go in the break, but is in the GC group that reel in the break, there's a possibility he can attack from that group and is maybe given some leeway to go after the stage win. Also, with that headwind on the final climb, we could see a bit of a stalemate amongst the GC men and there is a small possibility that they come to the last 500m together in a small group of maybe 15 guys, from which Martin would have a chance in the sprint. He is being backed too, in from 18/1 to 12/1 with Bet365, but still 14/1 with Betway, and is 21/1 with Betfair, but is a standout 23/1 (boosted) with Unibet and 13/2 to place, and that's worth a shot.  

AG2R are sure to try to get guys in the break again, Bouchard will probably try, but he's supposedly getting very tired in the last few days so he might struggle on the final climb in particular, especially if he goes for the points on the Valentino. I think the finish is too hard for Vendrame this time. Larry Warbasse seems to be riding pretty steady in the last week, and his win in the Tour de Suisse back in 2017 came on a stage similar to his with a 13.5km final climb at nearly 7%. 

And the other guy I'd like to keep onside is Brambilla, as he looks to be getting stronger as the race goes on and might have the help of Mollema and/or Nibail up there. He is more explosive for at the end of the stage if there are attacks coming from the break and he could jump away from slightly less explosive guys or win from a reduced sprint. 

And it's worth watching closely in play, to see if Ineos are pushing, to maybe have a saver on Bernal.. Also, I think Bernal is worth a shot at 7/4 in the KOM classification, he could well take another 40pts today, Friday and Saturday and the removal of the Matterone Cat 1 on Friday due to the re-routing of the race reduces the chances of Bouchard adding 40pts to his total. 

Recommendations:

1pt win and 1pt place on Dan Martin at 23/1 (boosted) and 6.8/1 (boosted) with Unibet

1pt win on Antonio Pedrero at 16/1 with Betway 

0.5pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Kilian Frankiny at 250/1 with Unibet

0.2pts win on Mauro Schmid at 500/1 with Unibet

0.1pts win on Larry Warbasse at 300/1 with Bet365

2pts on Bernal to win the KOM at 7/4 with Unibet

Matchbets

Martin to beat Martinez - 1pt at 6/5

Hirt to beat Taaramae and Yates to beat Foss - 2pts at 9/10 with 365