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Published on Friday, 21 May 2021 19:12

Giro d'Italia St 14

Cittadella - Monte Zoncolan

Saturday 22nd May, 205kms 

From the flattest stage of the race we suddenly rise in to the clouds with the beast that is the Monte Zoncolan! The weekend opens with a bang with a stage split in to two parts, the first 130kms or so a flat warmup, the last 73 see them take on two tough climbs, including the Cat 1 finish.  

It might be the Zoncolan, but it's not really the Zoncolan 'as we know it' in recent years, as they are coming up the eastern side from Sutrio. This is by far the easier route up the Zoncolan, and it's only the 2nd time they've come up this side in six previous stages up here, the last time being in 2003 when Gilberto Simoni won the stage from Garzelli with Marco Pantani struggling on the 20% gradients near the top (below)

This is one of the longer stages though, at 205kms, but with Sunday's stage looking more like a stage from the Tour of Romandie on a circuit, the GC men will know that they can go all-in on this one to try to put some time in to their rivals, as tomorrow is like an early rest day. The final 3kms of this one will really now start to separate the men from the boys and we should have a very different complexion to the winners' market come tomorrow morning, as some GC hopefuls' chances die on the mountain.

Simon Yates will have bitter memories of the Zoncolan from 2018, when he gave everything to catch Froome, came to within 20m of his back wheel, but Froome just kept finding more and more gears from somewhere to take the stage win from Yates. That was the start of the comeback that was scarcely believable the day before, so Yates should be keen to erase bad memories of this mountain from his mind this time. 

The next riders home that day were Pozzovivo, Lopez and Dumoulin, Yates was more worried about how much time he'd put in to Dumoulin ahead of the final TT than how much time he'd lost to Froome. Of riders doing this Giro that rode that day also, the best other finishers were Reichenbach and Bilbao in 8th and 9th, George Bennett in 12th, Formolo in 18th and Ciccone in 20th. Will we see similar placings this time around, or can they improve on them?

Back in 2003 when Gilberto Simoni won, his stats were as follows for the last/steepest 2.97 km (12.86%, 382m): 12:12, 14.61 Kph, VAM 1879 m/h, 6.35 W/kg (est.)  Simoni attacked immediately after steepest 3 km had begun. First 28 min of Zoncolan (east) are 'waiting game' and last 12 min are decisive.

Stage 13 Review

 A nothing day for hours as we expected, one little bit of fun with 51kms to go when Serry and De Gendt went to the front and tried to cause splits in the wind, but it was probably just out of boredom more than any real intention to blow up the race. 

And so it came to a sprint, and it was a mess of a sprint, with Affini almost pulling off the same stunt Jumbo pulled in the Tour of Dunkirk in 2019 when Teunissen jumped off the front instead of leading out Groenewegen. But Nizzolo came flying out after him and nailed him on the line to finally land his first win. Gaviria jumped first, powering up the left hand side and was looking nailed on for a top 3, or even maybe the win.. but then he faded and stopped sprinting in the last 20m and was passed by Sagan and Cimolai on the line and fell from 3rd to 5th.

It turns out that he finished the stage without a saddle (right), he must have lost it inside the last 500m as he seemed to be sitting down with 500m to go. So that would have been a distraction and a disappointment for him and he stopped pedalling in disgust I guess with the win gone. Man, when your luck is out, your luck is out, I can't believe we lost out on the place bet on him because he lost his damn saddle. 

Great sprint by Nizzolo, let's hope he goes home a happy man tomorrow. Sagan put more points in the bag, Cimolai and Gaviria are still in the hunt too, but hard to see them take it off him.

Very strange from Jumbo in the end, they had worked hard to look after Dylan all day, pulled him in to a good position with 1km to go and then coming through the last roundabout with 500m to go Affini just launches his sprint.. with Dylan hidden in behind a wall of guys, eventually finishing 10th and never getting his nose in the wind. All in all, a pretty disappointing return to racing for him, but I guess they'll be happy he got through the first 12 stages unscathed. 

Weather

It looks like it's going to be a horrible day in the saddle again tomorrow, raining all day and all along the route. It's a very long stage as it is, at 205kms, this is going to make it feel even longer. There will be some guys really suffer tomorrow and it will be a real war of attrition on the final climb. No wind really to worry about though at least. 

The Route

Starting in Citadella, the riders have a long one ahead of them at 205kms, but the opening 132kms are almost pointless, rolling along the flatlands skirting the bottom of the Alps. The only thing to trouble them in about 3 hours of boring nothingness is a Cat 4 little lump after 75kms, but as it's just 2kms long they'll barely even realise it. They could have just started the stage 5kms before the Castello di Caneva, give them a short run in to it, an opportunity for the break to go and then a more interesting, shorter stage of 135kms. 

Anyway, it is what it is, we'll have to endure it along with the riders, knowing that there's something special at the end of it. At Meduna, after 119kms they pass through the intermediate sprint and turn north to head in to the Alps, but still through a valley for another 15kms. With 70kms to go they start on the Cat 2 Forcella Monte Rest, a tough intro to the Alps that averages 5.9% over 11.5kms, but has sections that hit 8-10%. 

A quick 8km descent and they hit a short little kicker of 2.4kms at 5.3%, but they continue to descend gently down the valley to Casanoca, where the road starts to rise gently again with 177kms gone. The 2nd intermediate is at Arta Terme where the approach is a little stiffer, then it flattens for another 5kms as they approach the bottom of the Zoncolan. 

It may be the 'easier' side of the Zoncolan, but it's still brutal. 13.1kms, rising at an average of 8.9% to a height of 1729m. The first 10kms are a pretty steady 7.6% average, where bar the first and last kilometre, which are 5.85%, it mostly stays between 7.3 and 9.3%. But as they pass Rif Moro with 3.5kms to go, it gets proper serious. 

The last 3kms rise sharply on narrow road with only a few bends, and gradients often exceeding 20% (averaging 13%). The pitch over the final kilometre largely hovers around the 18% mark, with gradients exceeding 25% and topping out at 27% both along the hairpins and in the final stretch.  

Contenders and Favourites

I think this could be a GC day today. I think Ineos will keep the pressure on from the start today and start to wind it up on the first big climb of the day, the Forcella Monte Rest - it's 6% for 11.5kms, but there are some pretty steep parts in the last 5kms of it. They will look to strip the peloton down of the deadwood and lighten up the peloton ahead of the final climb up the Zoncolon. I think the gap might be under 5 minutes at the top and as long as it's under 4 minutes hitting the Zoncolan I think they will reel them in in time for the GC men to fight out the finish.

So the peloton, or what's left of it will hit the Zoncolan with the break in touching distance, if not caught already and it will be teed up nicely for a battle royale on the steep slopes. Ineos will be left do the pulling still at the front I think, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Astana and Bike Exchange have their men near the front too, ready to take a pull if necessary. But it will probably come down to a mano-a-mano battle for the last 3kms on those slopes over 12%, it will be just a brutal grind, especially given the forecast of rain all day. 

We know how well Yates can go on slopes like this, but what really is his condition? Has he been holding back in the last two weeks, pacing, pacing, keeping his reserves, energy, strength and composure? He learned a lot from his Giro in 2018 when he went super-agressive in the first two weeks, winning a few stages and putting time in to Dumoulin, who he feared the most. Only to then blow up as we know.

But losing seconds here and there when he couldn't go with Bernal, or even Buchmann a few days ago, that's not ideal, he's given himself a bit of a handicap to overcome, he's already 1'22" behind Bernal. But we know that can disappear in a moment if one has a good day and the other a bad, and there's a lot of climbing to be done yet. 

Has he been saving himself for this? He knows what it's like, albeit from a different side, and he did very well up there last time around, finishing 19" ahead of Lopez and 36" ahead of Pinot. His light frame and powerful sitting style is well suited to the steep slopes. We'll soon find out what he's got. He won't like the rain as much as some you might think, he seems to go better when it's not raining, but if he's got the legs, I don't think it will matter much, they'll all be suffering. 

Bernal - has he done a Yates of 2018? Has he gone out too hard too early? Some are saying that they maybe felt like they had to try to push home his advantage on the two stages most suited to him, i.e. the two stages with gravel on them.. And that is what they did. The whole team went for it, looking back, almost like they were in the final few stages, rather than the opening week or so. He knew he had the skills and power to make a difference on the gravel, but if he's fired his two best shots and is only 45" up on Vlasov, is it enough?

Will we see him weaken in the 3rd week and his back problems resurface after a tough two weeks? Well, nothing is suggesting that so far, he even pushed ahead again on stage 11, taking another 26" out of Yates and 32" out of Carthy. How is he on steep, steep climbs like this? Well on the Pas de Peyrol in the Tour last year, on those 12-15% gradients in the last 2kms he really suffered and lost 38" to Roglic and Pogacar. That was the beggining of the end for him in the Tour though, as he started to succumb to his back problems. 

As we now know, his win on stage 9 was his first win in Grand Tour, he places 2nd, 3rd, and top 10 a lot, even in races that are not Grand Tours, but he's finished 5th on the Tourmalet in 2019, 5th to Foix, 51" behind Yates, 11th on Alpe d'Huez (but working for Thomas) so there's not a lot of conclusive proof he can really go well on steep ones.. One other thing to remember, he was going really well in Strade until the final hill, when he was left far behind by MVDP and Alaphilippe when they kicked. I'm avoiding him tomorrow, especially at just 9/4 now (opened 7/2), with a view to backing him on slightly easier finishes maybe later on. 

Hugh Carthy should be one that likes this sort of finish if he rides anything like he did on the Angliru last year on stage 12 in the Vuelta. He attacked in slow motion, but then again, they were all going in slow motion, and slowly drew out his advantage. He eventually won the stage by 16" from Vlasov, with Roglic 26" back with Dan Martin and Wout Poels.

On the Moncalvillo on stage 8 of the Vuelta (10-11% slopes for the last 3kms) he attacked with 3.5kms to go on the 9% section, but when it hit the 11% section with 2.5kms to go Carapaz and Roglic caught him and went past him. This is stage 14, so around the same distance in as the Angliru, will he find his good legs? He has been ok so far, nothing spectacular, like Yates, hanging in there and losing little bits of time here and there. He won't be far off I think, he'll have Bettiol and Guerreiro working hard for him until he's left on his own in the last 4 or 5 kms. 

Dan Martin is another who should like this finish, and I think he's an angry man after the criticism piled on him for not riding hard enough on the gravel as he promised his wife he wouldn't crash that day.. He looked to be in good shape up until then, but being too far back as they started on the gravel, and then taking it far too easy on the descents saw him detached a long way from home. He could be one to try going with maybe 5-6kms to go where it is around 8-9%, get in a little breather and recover a little when it flattens out for the 1.5kms before the final kick up, and then just try to grind it out to the top. He could be passed by one or two guys in slow motion, but he could stay on for a podium spot. 

Alexander Vlasov - this could be a make or break day for him, he's been riding well, taking 3rd behind Bernal on Campo Felice on stage 9, and losing only 23" to Bernal on stage 11.. but he lost 23" in the closing stages, not being able to go with Bernal when he came past him in pursuit of Buchmann. 2nd on the Angliru last year to Carthy, he couldn't stay with him and slowly, slowly drifted back, coming home with Carapaz and Mas. On the Covatilla stage he finished 4th, 6" behind Dan Martin, but 8" ahead of Carthy. He seems to be more of a grinder than someone with an explosive finish, and I think he's better on slopes under 10%. He should be there or thereabouts, top 5 probably, but not sure he can win this. 

Emanuel Buchmann has started to show himself, with a cheeky attack off the front in the closing stages of stage 11, forcing Bernal to come after him. He finished the closest to Bernal but couldn't stay with him on the last hill, the effort up to then, on a very tough day, had taken it's toll I guess. He struggled on stage 6 up to San Giacomo in the rain, finishing 28" behind Martin and Bernal. On the steep part of La Planche DBF in the Tour in 2019 he slipped back, losing 7" to Thomas in the end, and they are only 1km long at the top.

He did win that stage to Arrate in Itzulia in 2019, with its steep final slopes, but he was solo that day so it's hard to say how he'd have done with rivals beside him. On the stage of the Vuelta to Covadonga in 2018 he lost a lot of time, coming home in 9th, 1'33" down on Pinot and over a minute behind Yates. And on the not-quite-as-steep slopes of La Covatilla on stage 9 he lost 20" to Yates. I think he will be alongside the likes of Vlasov and Caruso fighting for 5th or 6th. 

Evenepoel - what can we expect here? Who knows.. either total capitulation, or the beginning of the fightback. Picon Blanco in Burgos has slopes of 10-12% inside the last 4kms and he charged up it last year. He beat Bennett by 18", Landa by 32", Chaves by 35" and Yates by 1'20". If he rides like that, or like he did in the Tour of Poland when he soloed away from everyone with over 50kms to go, then he could pull back a huge amount of time on his rivals and get right back in the hunt.

In the Tour of Turkey in 2019, on the steep 11% gradients of Kartepe, he finished 4th, 16" behind Grosschartner, but 24" ahead of the next guy, Pinto. So he seems to go pretty well on steep slopes and he's been doing alright so far, bar his meltdown on the gravel stage.. but that was a significant moment and an insight maybe in to how he's feeling and the pressure he's under. He is surely feeling the effects of two hard week's racing and this will be another step again for him in to the unknown.

If Ineos see any weakness whatsoever, they will go for the jugular again. He's lost a key helper in Masnada, and relations seem to be frosty with Almeida, so who knows what sort of help he'll get from him if he needs it. He said today "We'll be on our limits, it's going to be an hour or more uphill. Everybody's a little scared." Too many question marks for me. 

Damiano Caruso has been brilliant so far in this race and is still in with hopes of a podium finish. He may be in 3rd place, but he's over a minute back, and it's hard to see him pull that sort of time back on Bernal. So he'll probably just be on the defensive tomorrow and just try to hang in there and sit on wheels. He doesn't seem to be a guy for the really steep ones though, in the Tour last year on the Cold de la Loz he lost 3'30" to Lopez and Roglic and was 42" behind the next guy in front of him, Valverde in 12th place, he blew up in the last 4kms on the 11% parts. Same in the Giro the year before, no spectacular results on the big climbs, lost a lot of time on some. I can't have him tomorrow, it could be a day he slides down the GC. 

What about the Trek boys? Nibali looks like he's coming alive, but this isn't a stage for him I think, he should keep his powder dry for a stage win attempt next week. Ciccone has been riding really well but I think he'll be found out on these steep slopes, he's alright for a little dig on smaller climbs, but he didn't really get very far with his attack yesterday did he, he was easily pulled back by Ineos. 

Romain Bardet might go well on this one, he won't mind the rain too much and goes well on steep slopes, he has finished 3rd on Alpe d'Huez and Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc in the past, but it's been a while since he's pulled off a big result on a climb like this. 

And it's hard to see who else can take a stage like this.. Davide Formolo might attack early and try to hold on, he's UAE's best placed rider and is over 7 mins down, he might be let go on the earlier slopes. But with Ineos setting an infernal tempo, it'll be hard to pull away. This will be too much for Foss you'd think, he should slide out the top 10. Valter, Taaramae, Guerreiro, Schultz, they could all really struggle too.

Joao Almeida might put in a dig to annoy Ineos and try to make them burn off the likes of Martinez or Moscon a little earlier than they'd have wanted, but if they decide to ignore him a little and he keeps going, he could steal a march on them and could hang on for a top 5 placing once the others start to come past him. 

Could the break make it? Possibly, but it would need Ineos to do what they did the other day and down tools to such an extent that they gain a 12 min plus lead and have 6 or 7 minutes starting the Zoncolan. And even then they might not make it. Candidates for the break that could make it would include Mollema, who could have the legs to hang on and win this on these slopes, Bennett, who will be raging I think still after yesterday's carry-on, Bouwman, Hindley, Nieve, Fabbro or Tejada..

But I think if these guys have any sense they'll sit in the peloton, drop in to the grupetto once their legs start to burn and roll home saving energy for more suitable stages next week. 

It's going to be horrible, it's going to be wet, it's going to be great, hopefully. It could be a day the hard lads from the north of England start to fight back against little Egan, but will Egan just swat them away again? I think Dan Martin, Hugh Carthy and Yates will go well and Carthy at 14/1 is worth a shot. Dan Martin at 28/1 is also a decent shout and 13/2 for the place, he could well top 3 and on a very good day could win it.  

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Hugh Carthy at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Dan Martin at 28/1 with Unibet, 1pt on top 3 at 13/2

2pts on Simon Yates to finish in the top 3 at 7/4 with Unibet

Matchbets: 

Bardet to beat Caruso - 2pts at 5/4 with 365

Dan Martin to beat Ciccone - 2pts at 5/6

Bernal to beat Evenepoel and Vlasov to beat Buchmann - 2pts at 4/5