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Published on Wednesday, 19 May 2021 18:10

Giro d'Italia St 12

Siena - Bagnna Di Romanga

Thurs 20th May, 212Km

Breakaway day! Well it certainly looks like it, with a lot of the GC men and their teams licking their wounds after yesterday's brute of a stage and a profile that should favour a break getting away, building a big lead and staying away.

RCS are calling this the 'Queen stage across the Apennines', so the second Queen stage apparently, but although it doesn't look it on the profile, there's over 3,700m of climbing to be done on a tough, tough stage. This stage celebrates three-time Giro winner (and twice TDF winner) Gino Bartali passing through his home town of Ponte a Ema, as well as Alfredo Martini, manager of the Azzuri to six World Championships victories, who hails from Sesto Fiorentino. 

With a rolling, lumpy start through the Tuscan hills, we should see a good fight to get in the breakaway, with the stage getting progressively harder as it goes on, with two Cat 2s (of 15 and 16kms) and two Cat 3s to get over, with the final climb topping out just 10kms from the finish, 6kms of which are descending, leaving just a 4km flat run to the finish. You'll need to be able to climb to win this one, but not be a GC contender, a day for the lesser known guys or a GC guy who's had a bad start and has lost enough time to be given a bit of rope. 

Stage 11 Review

So a disappointing break went from our point of view, but they were let build a huge lead of over 14'30" as they hit the first gravel sector with just under 69kms to go. Harm Vanhoucke was there with Kluge, Taco VDH was there again and they went on to fight out the finish as the peloton took far too long before they kicked in to action, waiting until they hit the approach to the first gravel sector. Mauro Schmid took a brilliant win though, outstaying Covi up the hill. 

Behind, it was carnage. Ganna went to the front with Bernal and blew the race up. Suddenly there was about 40 guys left, with no Martin, Formolo and Remco struggling at the back. Ineos kept the pressure on all day and by the end the peloton was shredded. Even on the final hill Bilbao fell away, Soler fell away, Ciccone fell away as Buchmann attacked and Bernal went after him. It was a great day for Bernal and Ineos, a good reward for a lot of great work from the team and he delivered himself in the end. He's now 2/5 to win overall, a very short price with a lot of racing still to come, but hard to see who can beat him. 

There were shenanigans with DQS, as Remco struggled, Joao Almeida was still riding with the peloton and didn't appear to be waiting for him. Remco was seen ripping his earpiece out and looked to be in a world of trouble, but eventually Almeida was pulled back and paced him to the finish. He lost 2'18" in the end to Bernal, and possibly all hope of winning this race. 

Bardet lost time, he's now 3'29" down, maybe it's time for him to lose 10 mins tomorrow and go after the KOM jersey or stage wins next week. He seems to have the legs to be able to do it, but he won't beat the top 6 guys in the GC. Nibali, Formolo, Bilbao, Martin - their GC hopes are in tatters too. It makes the coming week a bit harder to predict in terms of the breaks, there are going to be a lot of guys who are out of GC contention who will be looking to save their Giro with a stage win. 

Ineos stretched their lead in the team competition to 9'3" as Bahrain, DQS and Movistar fell away, EF were the big winners, moving up 3 places to 3rd after great rides by Bettiol, Carthy and Guerreiro. Bike Exchange, like Simon Yates, sitting there quietly in 2nd though.. Yates had a funny day, sitting at the back all day, looking like he might slip out the back a few times, but eventually was one of the last men standing as they all fell away. He couldn't go with Bernal when he attacked away with Vlasov, but came home only 26" behind him to move to within just 10" of the podium.. The next week, including Saturday's stage to the Zoncolan could be very interesting indeed still. 

The Route

They head north for the first 73kms, descending overall, but meeting several little lumps along the way, so plenty of opportunities for the break of the day to form. After they pass through the first intermediate at Sesto Fiorentino they turn right and head in to the Apennines, climbing the first Cat 3 of the day straight after the intermediate. The Monte Morello is 7.2kms at 6.3%, but the first 3.7kms average a pretty steep 9.4%. It then runs along a plateau for almost 15kms before descending down in to the valley. 

With 116kms gone they start on the first long climb, the Passo Della Consuma, a Cat 2 climb that averages 6.1% for 15kms, with some steeper sections in the 8-9% area. A short and fast descent for 15kms takes them to the foot of the next big climb, the Passo Della Calla, which is 1km longer at 16.2kms, but easier at an average of just 5.3%, but the last 4kms average 6.4%. 

A long 27km descent takes them to Santa Sofia, where the 2nd intermediate sprint is located and the final climb begins. The Cat 3 Passo del Carniao (11.8kms at 4.3%) starts off with some steep ramps, including a kilometre at 12%, but most of it is pretty easy, even descending in parts. From the top there's just 10kms to go, 6.5kms of which are descending, with the road rising ever so gently from 3.5kms out to the line. On the map the road looks pretty straight and featureless for the last 3kms, but there are lots of roundabouts on the way to negotiate - but I've a feeling we won't be seeing many in the leading group as they fly through them, it could well be won by a solo rider or a very small group. 

Contenders and Favourites

We're probably going to start to see those guys who are thinking seriously about the KOM start to come out to play now, there are two Cat 2s and two Cat 3s out on the road, and it may be the same guy takes all the points, but may not win the stage! That's 54pts up for grabs, and as there's a good chance the break takes them all, lots of guys will be keen. Gino Mader is an obvious choice for the break, he will be looking to take his jersey back from Bouchard, he's only 7pts behind him.

But you can probably expect Bouchard to put up a fight for his jersey, he has been very active in the race so far too and looked strong, relentlessly attacking his companions on Sunday, only to run out of steam in the last 10kms. That stage took a lot out of him, he finished with Groenewegen's group the next day over 10 minutes down, let's see if he's able to bounce back from it.  

Bauke Mollema is sure to try again too, he's been very active, without much joy. He has had to work quite hard in that first week though, not sure how much energy he has left, he might take it easy for a while before going for more stage win attempts next week. 

KOM favourite pre-race, Ruben Guerreiro has yet to score a single point in the race. He's been trying, but just hasn't been able to get in the right moves. He was great today for Carthy, but with Carthy now 5" off the podium, I think he'll be staying beside him for the rest of this race. 

George Bennett has started to get involved in breaks, but Koen Bouwman was far stronger than him in stage 9. I'd rather be on Koen again as I think this is a stage that will suit him with the longer climbs. He rode very well today to finish in 23rd, with Nibali and Soler, just a minute and a half down on Carthy. Being 13 mins down on GC should give him the freedom to go, but he might be tired after today, that would have taken a lot out of him. 

Another guy who has been active, but has taken a few days off is Alessandro de Marchi. He has 10pts already, a good haul on this stage could see him shoot to the top of the standings and add another jersey to his 2021 Giro collection. He took it easy today, coming home 19mins down, he could well go tomorrow. He could be a 'back to lay' on Betfair, he might well get in the break, but he might not win it.. lay him back in play around 5 or 6/1 for a free bet on him. 

Could we finally see Felix Grosschartner make a move in this Giro? Or will he be asked to babysit Buchmann now he has moved up 9 places in the GC to 6th? They certainly didn't spare the horses on stage 10 when they blew the race to pieces earlier than was expected, with the whole team pulling together in a collective effort for Sagan. Grosschartner did a lot that day, pulling off eventually and rolling home 3 minutes down.

He came home 22'35" down today so he took it easier than some, maybe he and Sagan will go off the front in search of the intermediate sprint points after 76kms and Sagan helps him as long as he can. The stage he won in the ToTA was very similar to this one with five climbs to get over and a downhill run to a flattish finish. De Marchi was 3rd that day by the way, with Roche in between. 

What about Roche? He has been trying to get in the breaks, with no luck so far, we might see him and Storer give it a go again. The climbs aren't too hard for most of the day - the big ones are long but not too hard and the steepest one is in the opening half of the stage so they should take it steady in the break to try to keep it altogether. Storer has been looking keen too, did well to bridge with Bouwman on Sunday, but just couldn't go with his acceleration. They both finished well down today too. 

Rein Taaramae finished a very respectable 17th on Sunday, climbing with the best and finishing ahead of the likes of Nibali, Foss and Bettiol. He is still just 5'43" down on GC though, he suffered a badly-timed puncture in the closing stages today, after riding brilliantly all day to be with the front group. Wanty will want to have at least one in the break I think, maybe it could be a day for Petilli or Hirt, but Petilli has never won a pro race and Hirt has only won two, in Austria, in 2016.. Both of them finished in the very last group today, so maybe they're plotting something. 

Rudy Molard, Seb Reichenbach could like this one, Molard rode well today to only finish 3 mins behind Bernal, but with him now being over a half hour down on GC, the FDJ leader really needs to do something to save his Giro. Reichenbach or one of the other guys could go with him to save him until the final climb. 

Lotto Soudal wil probably continue to plug away, but Vanhoucke burnt a lot of matches today. Maybe it's finally De Gendt day? He's been very quiet till now, has been telling everyone he's not even going to try until Caleb went home, so now he's gone, he's free to go. This is his sort of stage. 

Movistar are sure to send one or two up the road too, their beloved Team Classification is gone now so they'll be stage hunting, and they'll have been given a nice boost from Carretero's win in Andalucia yesterday. The usual suspects I guess - Rubio, Pedrero, Oliveira and maybe Jorgensen. A lot was expected of Jorgensen coming in to this Giro and he's done nothing so far, he's either waiting and easing himself through the first 10 stages, or he simply hasn't the legs. I'll wait and see I think tomorrow. 

Will the GC teams send team-mates up the road to help later on and to maybe take the pressure off them needing to chase? With the downhill finish, it doesn't really suit Bernal to go aggressive today and he might be happy to let the break go, with maybe Narvaez in it? I don't think the GC guys will be looking for a hard today tomorrow, but actually, seeing as they really only raced for about 60kms, some might be keen to push the knife further in to the likes of Remco if they are stuggling. 

Bahrain had a mixed day in the end, Caruso moving in to 3rd in the GC was great for them, but he was isolated at the finish. Do they send some guys up the road? Tratnik has apparently said he's going on the attack tomorrow, but that might be to protect and help Mader take the points. But he could win it for two reasons - if he's with Mader and they are safe coming over the last hill, he might be able to attack away and charge down the hill to the finish. And if Mader doesn't make the break, they he is free to go for the stage win himself. 

With Vlasov in 2nd now I can't see Astana sending Luis Leon or any of the others up the road, and Bike Exchange might not do so either, maybe Tanel Kangert, but I think they are all-in for Yates now. Qhubeka will be buzzing after Schmid's win today, they will probably try again, maybe with Frankiny, he's about the only other decent climber in the team. 

Dan Martin might fancy this stage, especially after losing time today, but at just 7 mins down he's probably not going to be let go. But watch out for him maybe losing more time in the coming days.. He is only 14/1 with 365 though, I guess they fear he might go in the break, but not at that price for me. 

So a wide open stage again, betting reflect that, 365 have Guerreiro as their 8/1 favourite and that's just stupid to me, he had a hard day today and he will be saving himself I think to look after Carthy this weekend. Mader is 9/1, and that's very short too, seeing as he might go all in for the points, leaving himself open to be mugged at the finish. Bernal is 11/1, guess they fear that he will launch another monster attack and fly past the break on the final climb. 

I'm happy to throw a few darts at big prices though, I might add some more later on too or tomorrow morning, but these will do for now. 

Recommendations:

0.3pts e/w on Jan Tratnik at 125/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Thomas de Gendt at 80/1

0.5pts win on Felix Grosschartner at 33/1

0.2pts win on Jan Hirt at 150/1

0.5pts win on Rudy Molard at 50/1

0.5pts win on Koen Bouwman at 25/1

Alessandro de Marchi - take him on Betfair around 40/1+ and lay him back at around 5/1 if he gets in the break. 0.5pts

Matchbets

To come