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Published on Saturday, 15 May 2021 22:04

Giro d'Italia St 9

Castel di Sangro - Campo Felice

Sunday 16th May, 160kms

This first Queen stage of the race across the Apennines of Abruzzo takes in several climbs, including two Cat 2s, a Cat 3 and the final Cat 1 up to the finish at Rocca di Cambio. 

The stage is up and down all day, there's barely a flat mile of road from start to finish. The stage looks another for a possible breakaway victory, watch out for those riders who maybe tried early moves yesterday but failed to make the final break to give it a go again, it's often the case that they succeed to get away the next time as I keep saying!

The stage isn't very hard on the face of things by Giro standards, lots of climbing, lots of long climbs, but they are all around 5% and under on average, with the road only really steepening on the final climb. Nevertheless, the relentless up and down all day and probably high pace will create a lot of stress in the bunch and we could see a smallish group once they get over the Ovindoli with just 25kms to go. 

The final climb isn't the hardest either, but the combination of the steep 14% section and the gravel roads in the last 1500m could see some gaps amongst the GC candidates. The question is, will they go hard enough all today to reel in the break in time to fight it out for stage honours, or will we see two battles on the road?

Stage 8 Review 

Well that was super disappointing, a battle for an hour or so, hundreds of attacks, but ultimately a terrible break gets away with none of our many guys in it.. It was a crazy start, with a huge break going with several of our guys in it like Harm Vanhoucke, but suddenly we see riders waving and shouting at none other than Egan Bernal who had infiltrated the break, dooming it instantly. 

After the break finally broke the elastic, FDJ settled it down at the front and the gap ballooned to over 7 mins with just 65kms to go. The big news of the day though was Caleb Ewan abandoning, reportedly with a 'pain in his knee'.. maybe he ripped tendons or muscles in that sprint yesterday with the power he put out! We all knew he was going home early, I just didn't expect him to go home this soon, especially as he was in the Ciclamina jersey. Merlier takes over the lead from Nizzolo and Viviani. 

Speaking of Merlier, he was in trouble 55kms out on the climb, not long after Dylan Groenewegen was also dropped, and that was with a sedate pace on a gentle climb.. then Nizzolo dropped a chain and got dropped too.. I fear for them tomorrow. 

In the end a brilliant win for Lafay and Cofidis, their first win in the Giro in 11 years and their first win in the World Tour since Herrada in the Vuelta 2019. Another 100/1 shot winning. Gavazzi stayed on well to pass Carboni for 2nd, Arndt outsprinting Oliveira for 3rd as they too passed Carboni in the finishing straight.

I would have been really pissed off if Oliveira had won today, very close with the place part if you took it, I was correct in that he'd like the stage and right in that he won't win.. but 4th is disappointing if you took the place part, very close, I would think he was at least 35/1 for the place, maybe 150/1 for the win. 

No surprises in the GC group, Bilbao crashed in the last few kilometres and lost a little time, all the GC men were at the front, except for Hindley who lost a few seconds. Joao Almeida led the sprint home, maybe showing that he's starting to come back in to form after a bit of a dud start. 

The Route

They head north for most of the day, with the occassional zig-zag through valleys. It starts climbing from the flag drop, with a nice easy one to get them warmed up, the Colle della Croce comes after just 4.5kms, is uncategorised, but it's 7kms at 3.4%. After just 22kms they start on the first Cat 2. the Passo Godi, which is long at 14.7kms, but not too hard, averaging just 3.9%. 

30kms of a descent later and they start another uncategorised climb up to Fonte Ciarlotto, split in to two parts, 3.8kms at 5.7% and 11.4kms at 4.5%, which actually makes it harder than the Cat 2 they just went over! Quick descent, then the Cat 3 Forca Caruso, a 13km drag again at 4.5%, another 15km descent and they start the Cat 2 Ovindoli with just 40kms to go, passing through the first intermediate sprint point after 122kms, where we might see the GC looking to reel in the break to fight for the bonus seconds. 

The Ovindoli is the longest climb of the day at 17kms, but again it's pretty easy for a Queen stage, averaging just 4.5%, very steady all the way and only hits a max of around 5.9%. A gentle descent/false flat takes them to a little rise with 10kms to go where the 2nd intermediate is, before they start the final ascent to the finish. 

This one is a little tougher, well for the last 1300m or so anyway, as it kicks up to 8.2% average. With just over 3kms to go they enter a well-lit tunnel and emerge with just 2kms to go, where the road steepens to over 5%, they hit gravel roads with 1600m to go and it continues all the way to the finish on sterrato more akin to Strade Bianche. With 500m to go the road kicks up to a nasty 14% for about 250m then eases slightly for the last 250m. 

Contenders and Favourites

So what about this one? Will the GC men step up for a Sunday afternoon show? With stage 10 being a likely sprint stage again, they can afford to go full gas today and test each other, knowing that Monday will be like a pre rest day rest day! They had a tough start today, with Ganna and the DQS domestiques working hard to keep things together, but after it settled down they had a pretty easy day. 

Of course the break could make it again, when I first looked at this stage a few weeks back I pencilled it in for a break day, but now I think it could be closer to 70/30 GC, the inverse of what I thought first. To win from the break though you will need to be a really good climber - first to get in the break at the start, with the first 15kms being uphill, and a 13km Cat 3 coming at them just 22kms in to the stage. Then there are three more tough climbs in the next 70kms, before the steep uphill pull to the line, some of which is on gravel roads!

So I think you can narrow down the amount of break candidates somewhat, rouleur types like Cavagna and Ganna will not be going and pucheur types like Sagan, Ulissi and Bettiol will not be going. It could be a day for Thomas de Gendt, especially now as Caleb Ewan has gone home. Lots of guys missed the boat today who were fancied, do we try some of them again? No FDJ this time, it's clear that they are all in for Valter for now. 

Movistar, Lotto as I said (maybe Harm again?), Bardiani, Androni, AG2R, Cofidis, EF, DSM, Astana, JV and Trek will all be keen to get in the break, it's trying to pick who of the 85 guys or so who are parts of these teams that aren't going for GC that could get in is the challenge as we know. 

As for the GC men, I think we could really see a big battle today between them as I said, Ineos look up for the fight, Bernal looks up for the fight, he was very active today in chasing down the breaks early on, maybe they wanted to push Evenepoel in to the race lead by dropping Valter on the last climb and Bernal was keeping tabs on who was in the break and who wasn't in case it spoiled that plan. And he looked fresh and keen at the finish too, Moscon guiding him home. 

He is looking good though, and the gravel finish shouldn't pose him too many problems if he rides anything like he did in Strade Bianche. He will like the steep finish, his team will tee him up for it, he's got Dani Martinez, and maybe Moscon who can attack to make the others chase and he can follow wheels until it's time to go. 

Evenepoel has also been looking good this week, but in his pre-stage interview today he said that he's been feeling tired in the last few days.. now I'll believe that when I see him being dropped, but until then I think he has to be feared on a stage like this. 

Is it time for Simon Yates to make his move? He's been very quiet so far, disappointing even in losing little bits of time here and there, he can't afford to lose any more time really and needs to finish today with or not very far from Bernal and Evenepoel. He's only done SB once, and that was this year, probably with the Giro in mind, but finished way down in 63rd, over 11 mins down. He'll need to improve on that sort of performance if he wants to stay close to the strong guys here. He looked comfortable finishing today, but hard to read too much in to it on that finish. 

Dan Martin could like this short and punchy finish too, but it's interesting to see that he has never done Strade Bianche, not his thing then I guess. But that finish is a bit like the gradients of the Mur de Bretagne and the Mur de Huy in places, and we know how well he has gone in those races in the past. He looks to have the form, he's 36" off Evenepoel, a small gap and the 10" time bonus would effectively pull him in to the top 6 and keeps him in the hunt. Can't have any more mechanicals though, he had two today in about 10kms. 

Giulio Ciccone was also one that I fancied for this, he's apparently waiting for a real go at the Toscana gravel stage next week, but I can see him liking this finish and trying to attack late on. Romain Bardet could also try, we saw how well he went in Strade Bianche in 2018 when he finished 2nd behind Benoot. I know it's not exactly Strade Bianche here though as it's only 1.6kms of gravel, but every bit of experience racing on that surface will help. He's just over a minute behind Evenepoel, so bonus seconds will be helpful to him too. 

Joao Almeida sprinted to the finish today, was he trying to show us that his legs are coming back after a dud start to the race? I'm not sure this is the stage for him though. Marc Soler might try a cheeky dig on the slightly easier slopes with 3kms to go, it will have to be a big dig though as the GC men will be winding it up behind him pretty soon. He might be better off trying if from further out, maybe on that little kicker to the intermediate with 10kms to go. 

Bauke Mollema and Ruben Guerreiro are too short at 11/1, as is Gino Mader at 14/1.. Diego Ulissi looked lively in the finish today, pushing it at the front for some reason on the run in to the finish, he could be one that can hang in there over the later part of this climb and attack late on. 

It's a very hard stage to call again, there is a mix of GC men and break candidates in the betting and it really could be anything happen tomorow. i think though it could be time to back Bernal, he looks sharp and this looks like a stage where Ineos could push it hard and put a lot of guys under pressure and for Bernal to finish it off. Small stakes though, as we're not 100% sure of just how good he's going yet, but he's looking one of the sharpest and strongest so far. 

What about DQS then? Could Evenepoel try something? Well he's been following wheels very well so far, but what happens tomorrow when push comes to shove? Will he have what it takes to attack and take the win? I'm not sure. But maybe he could help tee up Joao Almeida for a go at the sprint finish if there is a small GC group comes together to the finish like today, he's got one of the best sprint finishes and looks to be getting better day by day. 

Small stakes too on a few others just in case, Dan Martin e/w could be worth a shot and Ulissi maybe at a better price than he was today on a stage that might suit him better, Almeida for the sprint. Will update in the morning if I hear anything re. the break, sorry about today's update, it was passed on in good faith, but what can you do, most break guys missed the break in the end.  

Recommendations: 

1pt on Egan Bernal at 7/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Daniel Martin at 18/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Diego Ulissi at 25/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Joao Almeida at 33/1 with Betway

Matchbets:

Bernal to beat Evenepoel and Martin to beat Ciccone - 2pts at 11/10 with 365

Add Almeida to beat Bilbao for a treble at 2/1 - 2pts