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Published on Thursday, 13 May 2021 21:20

Giro d'Italia St 7

Notaresco - Termoli

Friday 14th May, 181kms 

A day after the first summit finish and shake up in the GC, we're back to a sprint stage again as they continue to head south along the coast. But it's a far cry from the last sprint stage with a number of hills to get over along the way to an uphill finish. 

It's unlikely we'll see much break action, I think most riders who fancy their chances in the break will be waiting for tomorrow's stage, (or burnt a lot of matches today) which should be one for the attackers, I can see them going all the way in that one.

So it's a matter of the sprinters's teams controlling it all day, keeping the pace steady enough not to get their men in trouble on the hills and then guiding them to the last two kilometers where they will need to dig in up the 10-12% gradients with 1500m to go in order to sprint for victory.. Simple! 

The Giro last finished in Termoli in 2006, when Lithuanian Tomas Vaitkus beat Paulo Bettini in a tight finish. 

Stage 6 Wrapup

I suggest you try to catch highlights if you couldn't follow live today, there was so much happened again. The early break looked like they had a chance and we had Mader, Storer, Vanhoucke and Molard in it, was looking very nice indeed. But they were reeled in and another group went, this time with Mader, Mohoric, Cataldo and 3 others, with Mollema and Bouchard chasing behind, Mollema having missed the move. They dangled 30" back, looked like it was all over for them, but it looks like a deal was done and they were let join. 

But the peloton didn't let them have much room, especially when Ganna and Ineos went in to full attack mode on the climb of Forca di Gualdo, causing splits in the wind. Up front, Mohoric did an incredible job pulling for Mader all day, and as they hit the last climb with 10kms left they still had 2 minutes, but it was touch and go he'd make it.

But make it he did and landed a lovely 40/1 winner for us, I hope some of you got the 40/1 with 365, he was available at 33/1 in a lot of other places too. We were unlucky not to have more going for it though, with Storer looking strong later in the race to look after Hindley and Bardet, and Vanhoucke looking very keen to get in all the breaks earlier, but missing the one that counted. No joy with the matchbets really, Grosschartner won, but HV looks to have taken it easier than Champoussin after his early efforts, coming home 3 mins behind him and Ciccone really surprised me with how strong he is, coupled with Carthy disappointing a little for me, losing 17" to Bernal and Evenepoel. 

Bernal looked good though, he tried to get away but the headwind was a killer, Evenepoel also looked good sitting in the wheels. Dan Martin continues to impress, I didn't expect him to be able to react to Bernal's accelerations like that. Yate, Vlasov, Buchmann a bit disappointing again, Soler, Martinez (even after a puncture) and Caruso also impressed. 

7.8pt profit then today, making it over 12pts in two days, good to keep it ticking along again after a shitty start. Great shout from my man though to pick Bernal and Martin, he was almost right about it being a GC day.. if we'd backed them both each way we could have had the 1-2-3! He passed some info on to me today too which I'll reveal in good time next week, so stay tuned!

The Route

The race returns to the Adriatic coast, with a slight deviation back in to the hills along the way, so it's not quite a straight-forward sprinters stage. After 37kms, after a run along the flat shoreline, the road turns right and goes over the first little lump, which could be where the break finally gets away. From 56kms to 97kms the road is up and down, with the Cat 4 Chieti climb (3.8kms at 6.8%) the main obstacle. There's also a sprint point in the middle of the hills after 92kms and shortly after they decend back down to the coast. 

Then then run along the coast for more or less the next 70kms, with a little lump to get over as they approach Vasto with 151kms gone, we might see some late attacks, but seeing as it's 30kms from the finish and a perfect run-in for the sprinters' teams to reel in someone, I doubt we'll see many waste energy trying. 

The last 3 km are raced on urban roads. After leaving the coastal road, the route takes in a 200m kick with 10-12% gradients with 1700m to go, and then continues on a slight incline all the way to the finish. The finish is quite technical again, not what we want to see after the chaos on stage 5..

With 1.6kms to go they take a 90 degree right turn away from the beachfront, and hit that 10-12% ramp, followed 300m later by a sharp left, then another 90-degree right just outside the flamme rouge. But it doesn't straighten up yet, they cross some railway tracks, then turn a sharp right with 750m to go, then a sharp left with 500m to go. The road bends around to the right in the final 200m, meaning you don't see the finish line until very late, like on stage 2. 

Contenders and Favourites

Looks like it will be another sprint finish, and another dangerous-looking finish. There are five sharp right-angle turns and railway tracks to cross inside the last 1600m or so, and slopes uphil to the finish line. Being in the right place coming in to that right turn away from the beachfront with 1.6kms to go and in to the sharp 10% stretch is going to be crucial.

Positioning is going to be vital and some of the stronger leadout men will be crucial here to stay at the front with their men in order to give them the leadout just 1km later. If you're caught out of position, with no leadout men around you, your chance could be gone with 1.5kms to go, and you'll have to exert a lot of energy to get yourself in to a better position to sprint. 

We saw on stage 5 who managed a finish like this the best and who didn't. Caleb Ewan was superb, the onboard footage of him navigating the finish was amazing, it's worth digging it out on the Velon twitter feed to watch it. He's slippery as anything, communicates brilliantly with the guys in front of him (JASPER!!!!) and is brave as you like. 

His finishing kick was stunning too, it didn't look like he should win that sprint with 100m to go, but he finished like a train, hitting almost 70kmph to nail Nizzolo. Hard to look past him again, the team took it easy on the main part again today for him, Vanhoucke gave it a go, but De Gendt stayed. The 2/1 is tight, but if you look at the finish today, the uphill finish and the possiblity of chaos again, he looks the best guy to have on your side. He won't mind that kicker and De Buyst and Kluge should be around him ready to go again. 

Groenewegen got caught out badly in the run in to the last 500m on stage 5, he was way too far back and behind a split that the DSM guys left. He finished fast, to take 8th from an almost impossible position though, so with a bit better navigation and a bit of luck, he could go closer this time, but I'm done with him for now. 

Giacomo Nizzolo, that lad just can't buy a win, so close yet again on st5. He flew up the left of the road when Ewan and Viviani went right, and at one point, about 70m from the line it looked like he was going to win, he had Viviani beat. Then Ewan came. With a tailwind, he might have a small advantage back over Ewan, but has he the skills to negotiate the finale as well as Ewan? Probably, but maybe not the speed to beat him again. He will be close again though, podium prospects.  

Elia Viviani is doing a great job for us in the points competition, he's in to 5/1, and if you take away Nizzolo, which hopefully is the case based on the info I got, then we are in with a great shot of the place part of that, at the very least. SImone Consonni was back to his brilliant best though on st5, I am still pissed off and confused as to why he and Sabatini swapped in stage 2, we should have won that match bet. 

The way he accelerated and guided him past the slowing Molano and Krieger in the last 200m was superb, and I think he, Sabatini and the others will be right at the front in the last 2kms looking after him, with Sabatini and Consonni guiding him through the last 1500m and up the hill. I think he will go close to a podium again if he gets a clear run..

But that's not always guaranteed with Viviani, and what if, just maybe, Consonni finds himself hitting that hill with Viviani out of position and he kicks for home with one or two others at the front? There is a possibility we see some guys go off the front as they go up that hill, there are sure to be some attacks, and maybe Consonni can go with them.. he seems to have good legs.. or even maybe Viviani gets cut off and Consonni finds himself on Sagan or Merlier's wheel, he could get a chance to sprint himself.. he's 125/1, why not have a cheeky punt on it.. If you don't agree, I wouldn't put you off backing Viv to place at 5/2 again. 

Tim Merlier got caught out in the squeeze betwen Sagan and Ewan in the last sprint, his chain was knocked off so he was very unlucky. I know it all happened in the blink of an eye and it's very difficult to say what might have happened, but it looked to me like he might have struggled to go after NIzzolo, Viv and Ewan, they accelerated so fast. His strength is in striking from a long way out and getting up to top speed, then kicking again.

If he does get through the bends and hill in a good position though, it's a very similar finish to stage 2 with the road curving until 150-200m to go to the line, he has plenty of road to wind it up again and strike for home early.. but will someone come late and mug him? Ewan seems to be hitting top gear now and that's his speciality. 

One team that could shake things up though is Bora - they tried to split things up and cause a bit of a split on the run in through the bends in st5, Daniel Oss taking a big turn at the front to pull Sagan in to position. But he was 3rd wheel behind the wrong guys, Krieger and Molano stopped dead, Sagan lost momentum at the worst possible time and he was swamped by the other sprinters and couldn't get going again. 

I am sure they will be pushing like crazy to be at the front coming to that bend off the seafront and Sagan will have the power to be near the front in case there are any splits up the hill. He should have Oss with him and maybe Grosschartner, Bodnar, Benedetti will be not far away and they could put enough pressure on to break things up and if Sagan can get away with a few guys and gead a head start on the other sprinters, they might not catch him.

That's a slim chance though, more likely he'll just be in a good position after the hill and looking to be on the wheel of NIzzolo. Hard to see him podium if that's the case and I think his price is shorter than it should be, meaning others behind him might offer better value. 

Fernando Gaviria has not been great so far in the sprints, a mixture of bad luck, bad positioning and just not being quick enough has seen him finish 5th and 7th. I honestly can't see him improving on that tomorrow, another 4th - 9th place bet on Bet365 in play I think.  

Davide Cimolai, Matteo Moschetti, Paddy Bevin, Filippo Fiorelli and Max Kanter might be fighting for the other top 10 places, but that's as close as they'll come I think, unless there is a crash, or a split that catches sprinters out. As I said though, there could be some late attacks up that last hill though, the likes of Diego Ulissi, Remi Cavagna, Fabio Felline, Luis Leon or Gianni Moscon could have a crack, but it will have to be a supreme effort to go all the way.  

It's a trappy finish, one fraught with dangers, so a small bet on Ewan is the play I think, with a place bet on Nizzolo at 6/4 and a cheeky one on Consonni at 125/1.  

Recommendations

2pts win on Caleb Ewan at 5/2 with Betway

2pts on Giacomo Nizzolo to place at 6/4 with Unibet

0.25pts e/w on Consonni at 125/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Viviani and Consonni to beat Molano - 2pts at 2.35 with Bet365

Add Pasqualon to beat Vendrame to make it a treble - 1pt at 3.4 with Bet365