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Published on Wednesday, 12 May 2021 21:34

Giro d'Italia St 6

Grotte di Frasassi - Ascoli Piceno

Thurs 13th May, 160kms 

From the flattest, most boring stage of the race to one which should see the first major shake-up in GC, with over 3,400m of ascension and the first summit finish of the race.  

The stage starts with a climb after just 1.5kms, climbing for 2kms at 7.5% - we might see the break of the day go as early as this hill, so it is sure to be a furious start to the stage and I'm sure we'll see lots of guys on rollers at the start. There's also another little hill after 36kms if the break hasn't gone yet, but we'll probably see a group hit the first big climb of the day with 5-7 mins at least, it just depends then on the strength of it and how hard the GC team's want to ride, knowing the final climb that faces them. A strong break of climbers could make it all the way to fight it out, with another fight behind for GC. 

The race last visited this finish back in 2002, when Mexican rider Julio Alberto Perez Cuapio won the stage, although they did climb the San Giacomo pass from the other side that time. It's a relatively easy stage up until about 77kms in, but then the climbing suddenly starts in earnest and they hit a Cat 2 and Cat 3 in quick succession..

If the break hasn't got much of a lead then they will probably lose a lot of time over the next 42kms as they descend to the foot of the final climb, teams like Ineos and Jumbo will want to keep the pace high and set up their men for victory on the final climb if the break are within reach. As the next day is another sprint stage, we might see the GC men willing to go hard to test each other, knowing they can take it easy the next day again. 

Stage 5 Review

No one was interested in getting in the break, two guys went and they never got very far and in fact were caught 106kms from the finish, a very early catch. They just got through the interemediate sprint before the peloton, where Merlier pipped Gaviria and Viviani, with Sagan and Nizzolo taking it a bit easier behind them. 

The finish was chaotic - the last 20kms or so saw Sivakov put on the ground by his own team-mate, I think it was Bernal touched wheels with him, he looked hurt and rolled in 13 minutes down (and is now out of the race). But worse was to come. A traffic island guarded by a flag man, unseen by some it seems, and suddenly Landa and Dombrowksi were on the ground. Landa's race is over with a broken Clavicule, and I thought  so was Dombrowski's, he crossed the line with his arm hung low off the handlebars. Latest reports though say he doesn't have anything broken, just a concussion, but that's isn't good either. Francois Bidard is also out, he was caught up in Landa's crash too. 

Up front there was more chaos - some of the sprinters were caught out by Bora stringing it out going in to the last bend with 900m to go and it was one long line. Gaviria, Merlier, Ewan and Nizzolo were in good positions behind Sagan in 3rd wheel, Viviani was further back with Groenewegen badly caught out of position, he must have been in 20th place with a gap also opening in front of the two DSM guys. 

With just over 200m to go Krieger pulled off the front, Sagan eased off as he didn't want to be in the wind too soon and Molano caused chaos again in a sprint by easing off too and looking around him, drifting back in to the sprinters who were just winding up. That caused a charging Viviani (brilliantly brought up by Consonni) to swerve, along with Ewan, and that caused Ewan to ride in to Merlier. That contact seems to have either damaged Merlier's mech or made him unship is chain, and he was out of it. 

Nizzolo hit the front, but the pocket rocket, wind demon Ewan pounced late to nail him on the line, relegating Nizzolo to his 11th 2nd place finish in the Giro. Viviani stayed on well to land the podium spot bet for us, which was nice. The analysis on the match bets was pretty spot on though, two out of three landing and the third only failed as De Buyst got caught up in the crashes and finished a minute down.

So a 4.5pt profit, and the bets on Carthy to beat Landa in the KOM and Landa to not win a stage look like winners, after a sad day for Landa. Don't like winning them like that, but we also lost on Landa's best Bahrain rider bet, so what can you do. That's racing as Sean would say. 

The Route

They head south most of the day, running along the top of the Appenines, climbing gently as they head through the first intermediate after 54kms. After 77kms they start on the Cat 2 Forca di Gualdo (9.8kms at 7.7%), pretty steady all the way but 3kms near the bottom are around 10% - we are sure to see a lot of the sprinters and weaker riders go out the back door early on this one. 

Just 8kms of a descent, interrupted by a 1km kicker at 7%, and they go straight on to the Forca di Presta, a much easier Cat 3 (4.9kms at 4.8%). Then a loooonnnnggg descent for 42kms as they turn left and descend off the Appenines and towards the coast, but before they reach the flatlands proper they turn a hard right and head back up in to the hills for the final climb. 

The final climb is a long one, 15.6kms in total at 6% average, but it's really split in to two parts - the first 10.6kms average a relatively easy 5.6%, but the last 5kms are a bit tougher, averaging 7.6%, with the 1.6 - 600m to go averaging 8%. The last 600m are 6.9% and should see another good battle to the line between the GC men, where we will see who's got the legs again, and who doesn't.  

Contenders and Favourites

So we had the first shake up in the GC on stage 4, a little earlier than we maybe expected, the gruelling conditions definitely had an impact I think on how riders went on that final climb to Sestola. But strong legs are strong legs and we saw who definitely rose to the top in terms of strong legs and those who weren't quite there.

Egan Bernal was probably the most impressive to me, particularly as he was offensive - not prepared to sit on behind Yates and the others as Vlasov went in pursuit of Landa, not waiting for Moscon and Sivakov to close the gap, they looked dead at that point. He shot after them and in fact, once he got up to Landa he looked the most impressive, pushing it in the closing stages and leading out the sprint, ekeing every second out of the advantage they had. 

Ineos will have seen the weakness in some of their rivals, like Buchmann, Hindley, Nibali, and even Evenepoel, Yates, Martin and Bardet who were not able to go with the big accelerations by Landa and Bernal. So they will probably set an infernal pace on that final climb and might just reel in the break of the day. It's a shortish stage at 168kms, and as there is the Cat 2 climb half way through I'd expect some teams to push hard there too to remove weaker riders and keep the break within reach for a shot at stage victory.

I had written earlier today when starting this that they might well get help from Bahrain again, they were pretty impressive in riding at the front for a long time in stage 4, I thought it was going to be all in vain again, but Landa rewarded them somewhat on the effort with his attack.. but now that is out the window I think with Landa gone, so I can't see Bahrain pulling now. 

Vlasov was a funny one for me, he went after Landa and got a little gap with Caruso on his wheel, but then when Bernal came up to him Bernal went straight past him and left him trailing. He struggled to come back to the front guys and it was only when Carthy came up that he was able to jump on his wheel and get a tow to the front guys again. 

Evenepoel did well to finish just 11" back with Yates, Yates did as I feared and wasn't quite as the same level as the top guys this early in the race, he's easing himself in to it. This might still be a stage or two too early for him, so I'm still holding off on him. Evenepoel was surprisingly good, but he wasn't able to go with Bernal, Carthy and Landa, his face reflected how he was on the limit for a lot of the final climb I think.

But even so, finishing with Yates is a good sign and it well and truly laid to rest who the team leader is at DQS given Almeida's implosion, that was a major surprise and disappointment to a lot of us, and puts a lot of our bets in trouble on him and DQS. It's hard to know if it was just a 'jour sans' and he will come back in to it later in the race, but it was the manner in which he finished that alarmed me, he rolled home with Knox over 4 minutes down and there was NO urgency at all from him or Knox coming to the finish, no sprint or hard effort to the line to save seconds, they had completely given up.

Maybe there has been a big falling out in the DQS camp following Lefevre declaring publicly that Almeida was leaving at the end of the year, maybe Almeida is pissed off and has downed tools. But he has a contract to try to earn now for after he leaves DQS, so he better start improving in order to put that 0 back on to his contract that might have fallen off after yesterday's performance!

Dan Martin was pleasantly surprising too, I mean he goes well on shorter stages like this and was in the top 10 of the betting for the stage, so was expected to go well, but was good to see him finish high up alongside Yates. He could be in the sort of form that could see him push for stage wins and a top 10 finish overall.

He could have a chance on this one, his win in the stage 3 of the Vuelta last year was on a similar gradient finish when he outlasted Rogilc and Carapaz also early in the race. It depends I suppose on what Israel decide to do, will they waste men trying to defend De Marchi's pink jersey?

They might try because they could keep it for quite a few more days after this, he has 1'28" of a lead over the first GC guy Evenepoel. De Marchi can climb, but can he stay within 1'30" of the GC guys on a finish like this? Well, Dan doesn't really need men around him, he's used to doing things on his own and will not be one of those pulling for De Marchi. 

Hugh Carthy looked good too, but seemed to be absolutely on his limit too to close up to Bernal, but showed good legs to actually be one of the few guys to be up there. I don't think this is a finish for Hugh though, but he should be with the first finishers from the GC.

Another guy to show good legs was Giulio Ciccone, as he skipped away from the pack shortly before Landa.. he got a small gap, and was able to go again with Landa when he came past him and stayed with the front group to the finish, gaining time on Nibali and sits only 28" behind Evenepoel. Do UAE switch to protecting him? Can he mount a GC challenge? Might be a bit early to be deciding that, but this could be a finish he likes, a late attack again while Bernal, Yates, Evenepoel watch each other could win it. 

The bookies don't seem to know what's going to happen or who's going to win, the early prices had Egan Bernal as the 6/1 favourite, with Bauke Mollema next at just 10/1. So they think the break has a big chance of making it too, in fact, the betting is almost every second guy a GC man and a breakaway candidate.

We've seen on stage 4 how the break can make it, even when a lot of people don't think it will, so there is always a chance for sure. The start of the stage has a climb, it climbs then gently for 75kms more before hitting the first climb. Ineos might not be interested in doing much work, Israel might only do a half-hearted ride at the front, DQS, DSM, Trek, Astana, Bike Exchange - none of them are likely to push too hard. 

Now I know Mollema says he's going chasing stages and he sits 14 mins down, so will be given plenty of freedom, but 10/1? Will he not be asked to stay with and look after Ciccone and Nibali, with Ciccone sitting in the effective top 10? I think that risk is too much to take him at just 10/1. Same with Brambilla at just 20/1. 

Felix Grosschartner I fancied a few days ago, he was 23/1 then, when Betway opened today they made him 12/1.. 12/1? That's really taking the piss, they prpbably just wanted to avoid any bets on him until Bet365 opened and they got a marker on how wrong their market was. And sure enough, 365 opened have him at 25/1. I'm still not sure about that, with so many guys making it in the breakaway on stage 4, and he not being able to join them, makes me worry that his legs aren't great at the moment. 

I was thinking about AG2R for this one, and with Bidard out after the crash today, they might be keen to get some guys up the road to try to win a stage for him.. Tony Gallopin was one I was waiting to back, he's 125/1, that's not bad, I was expecting around 80/1. Gougeard stretched his legs today with dig, maybe he was testing the legs ahead of tomorrow.. He won a similar sort of stage from Nelson Oliveira in the Vuelta in 2015. He's 250/1. Larry Warbasse will be inspired by his American mate Dombrowski too, let's give him another go at 200/1.

Harm Vanhoucke was another I was looking to back in this Giro after his performance so far this year - 5th on Jabel Hafeet in the UAE Tour, finishing with Higuita, Buchmann and Almeida, 9th on stage 7 of Paris Nice to La Colmiane, a similar finish to this one, just 22" behind Roglic, and 5th to Vallter 2000 in Catalunya, alongside Thomas, Kuss and Carthy. I didn't expect him to be just 18/1 though, that's really short, but if he gets in a break with some guys who might not be as good a climber as he is, he could leave them behind.

Lotto could also have De Gendt, Goossens and Marczynski who could fancy it, but I think De Gendt is still looking after Ewan, like he declared today, and I want to watch and see the other two do something, they've not impressed so far. 

Gino Mader, Gio Visconti, Pelle Bilbao, Rudy Molard, Jan Tratnik, Rein Taaramae, Matej Mohoric, Ruben Guerreiro, Sebastien Reichenbach, Diego Ulissi, Nicolas Roche, Antonio Pedrero, Luis Leon Sanchez and Michael Storer - just some more of the many, many guys who could try to get in the break and could have a chance.

Out of that lot, Storer appeals at 100/1, he was climbing ok on Stage 4, finished with Almeida and Knox just 4 mins down and has been riding well this year. Luis Leon has also been riding well and this is the kind of stage he might like, but the finish might be too hard for him. Gino Mader could try to do a tribute ride for Landa, but he's only 4 mins down, but he might be let go, or attack late. He rode brilliantly on La Colmiane to take 2nd behind Roglic in Paris Nice. Caruso is another who could attack late too to do likewise. 

Apparently it was reported on Eurosport in France today that Clement Champoussin was suffering from an Iron deficiency and isn't himself right now, so I'm leaving him but taking him on in a matchbet with Vanhoucke. 

It's a crazy confusing stage to try to decipher, break has a chance, probably 70/30 I think so I'm throwing some darts to see if we can get some guys in the break again. If it comes to a GC day, Hugh Carthy at 22/1 e/w appeals, if Bernal goes he could be one of the first to go with him and could land a top 3 at worst. 

Check in again tomorrow morning in case I hear anything else, I'll update it around 10am if so. 

Update - 10.50am - Small addition, I'm adding Rudy Molard at 50/1, he was going good in the ToTA and might like this stage. He looked 'focused' in an update from FDJ this morning and I think he's just far enough down on GC to get away, and FDJ will want men in the break too. My man likes Dan Martin and Bernal, he thinks it will be a GC finish, we disagree there! He did the first climb (Forca di Gualdo) in Tirreno last year and said it was hard, there were only like 50 guys left in the peloton at the top. He thinks Ineos will chase for Bernal to get back some time. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Harm Vanhouke at 18/1 with Betway

0.2pts e/w on Gougeard at 250/1

0.2pts e/w on Larry Warbasse at 200/1

0.2pts e/w on Tony Gallopin at 125/1 all with Betway

0.2pts e/w on Michael Storer at 125/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Hugh Carthy at 22/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Gino Mader at 40/1 with 365

0.4pts win on Rudy Molard at 50/1 with various

Matchbets

Vanhoucke to beat Champoussin, Carthy to beat Ciccone - 2pts on the double at 11/8

Add Grosschartner to beat De Gendt for a treble at 5/2 - 1pt