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Published on Monday, 10 May 2021 21:04

Giro d'Italia St 4  

Piacenzo - Sestola

Tuesday 11th May, 186kms    

A stage of two halves, as they head south-east in an almost dead straight, dead flat run to Parma and to the foothills of the Apennines for 78kms. From there on though it's a different matter entirely as there's barely a flat metre for the next 106kms. 

This looks like a stage for the breakaway guys, but you will need to be strong on the flats to get away early on, and be able to climb in order to finish it off. It might even be that given the flat nature of the opening 78kms, we might not actually see a break form until the race approaches the hills, where all hell could break loose from those who want to get up the road and challenge for the win. 

Sestola was the scene of Gulio Ciccone's first big pro win when he took the 10th stage after going solo from his break companions with 14kms to go. We could well see a similar result here with a break splitting up on the final climb with 6kms to go, or possibly on the climb before it with 20kms to go.  

Stage 3 Review

A good break went, but they were always kept under control by Bora who picked up the pace with about 120kms to go. With 72kms to go they hit the hills and almost immediately we saw Caleb Ewan out the back of the peloton and two teammates around him. He was dropped soon after, as was Groenewegen, Dekker (perfect for our Cimolai bet) and several others. 

Bora continued to push at the front, but Gaviria hung in there on the wheel of Sagan as Sagan was pulling all sorts of faces. Elia Viviani also did incredibly well to hang on, but Nizzolo was dropped on the next climb. As they hit the final climb up to Guarene, Bora kept a steady pace, but Gallopin and Ciccone made a break for freedom. Behind it looked like the peloton went over the top together, so in the end it was the earlier climbs that did for the majority of the sprinters, and not that final climb, which we thought might happen. 

The last two members of the break, Pellaud and Van der Hoorn did a brilliant job to hang on out front with Gallopin and Ciccone only 28" back and when TVDH went solo with 8.8kms to go he was just 39" ahead of the peloton. But then the peloton seemed to knock it off and the gap grew! With 5.6kms to go, as he went over the last hill he had a minute on the peloton. 

Cofidis finally started chasing, but they are hopeless in a chase and with 1km to go he still had 14" and in the twisty finishing kilometre he held on for a stunning 500/1 win. Behind Davide Cimolai exceeded my expectations to take a superb 2nd place, pipping Sagan in to 3rd, at least we had the place bets on him as the safety net.

Looking back I should have stayed away from Ewan vs Merlier as it was a bit of a lottery and that cost us money on the double.. should have just added Sagan to the double that won to make it a treble, would have been far better. As it was, we managed to scrape a small 1.65pt profit to stop the rot, and it was also a good day for Viviani and Cimolai in our points bets. The info on Dekker was spot on though, he dropped back to ride home with Dylan. 

The Route

Dead straight and flat as they head south-east to Parma, then the road takes a slight turn right and gently starts to rise. With 78kms gone though, as they hit the foothills of the Appenines, the complexion of the stage changes completely. A series of hills come one after the other for the next 110kms, as they continue to head south-east, but in a much more crooked line. 

A series of short, sharp climbs of around 2-3kms takes them through the Intermediate after 87kms and over a Cat 3 after 111kms. They start climbing the next hill some 19kms from the summit, but the categorised part is just 2kms, but very steep at 10.9%, hitting almost 14% at the top, although there is a 4.3km section just before that at 5.4%. With less than 45kms to go from the summit, expect the pace in the peloton to really start to pick up now. 

8kms of a descent, then a little rise up to Lama Mocogno and then another 8km descent before they hit the final 23kms and the two decisive climbs. First up it's the pull up to Montecreto, which is just 4kms long, but averages 7.3% (and carries on climbing for another 2kms over the summit, then a quick 6km descent takes them to the final intermediate sprint with just 6kms to go.

The final climb starts immediately after, and it's a tough one. The Colle Passerino averages 9.5% over 4.3kms, but after a gentle 6% opening 500m it suddenly hits 10.9% for the next 1500m, then another 500m at 12.4%. The climb tops out with about 2.5kms to go, dives down a short descent for a kilometre before a gentle drag takes them through the 1km to go flag and to about 500m to go - the last 500m are flat.  

Weather watch - it's going to be raining all day by the looks of things, with quite a wind blowing too, which is a headwind for most of the day as they head south, hitting 18-20mph. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think this is going to be a day for the break to go all the way. There is a headwind all day as I said though and that might hamper a breakaway's success, but also I think that Ineos are probably not going to push it hard all day, wasting energy, Bike Exchange probably won't, Bahrain probably won't, JV, Astana - the GC teams will not want to waste too much energy too early on this stage I think, just save it in case it kicks off on the final climb. 

DQS might want to make the last 40kms hard in order to strip down some domestiques from Bike Exchange and Ineos, but also Ineos will want to keep a lid on things in order to manage things for Bernal, in case he needs to be eased in to this race in the first week. So even though there is tough conditions for a break, I think a strong break of committed guys can succeed - they will maybe be more committed to a peloton who will just want to get through the majority of it safe and attack the final hill. 

I think there could be lots of guys interested in getting in this break, there could be 15 or 20 guys get in it and it could make it all the way. So we'll have to throw some darts and see how we get on. 

I was keen to check who lost time today in the run in, with tomorrow's stage in mind maybe and lo and behold, Thomas de Gendt popped up on the screen over 10 mins down. This is a De Gendt kind of day, but 33/1? Is it worth taking it when he tends to disappoint his backers so often? Maybe, I think he'd prefer an easier finish to the stage than this one, he might not be able to stay with lighter climbers on such a hard finish. 

I also spotted Gio Visconti finished 13 minutes down and he was one that I fancied for this stage before seeing his time loss.. that swung it for me, Bardiani will want 1 or 2 guys in the break. He opened at 100/1 with Betway and I had to have to some of that, he's 33/1 now and I'd probably have backed him at that price anyway so I'm still recommending a bet at that price. 

AG2R will probably want to get some men in the break like they did with Gougeard today, and with the late attack from Gallopin. Gallopin was one that I had my eye on for some breaks in this Giro, he looked to be coming in to good form and he showed that today with his late attack with Ciccone. He said repeatedly in an interview after the stage that his legs were good, but i think both him and Ciccone went hard today so might take a break tomorrow to save the legs for another stage down the line.

I thought about Geoffrey Bouchard instead, but saw that he has not won a single race in his career and he's 29 years' old.. So instead I'm having a small bet on Larry Warbasse who went well in ToTA and finished 25th today, he finished 5th in a similar stage on stage 9 last year won by Guerreiro. At 300/1, why not. 

As for another Trek guy, maybe Bauke Mollema might fancy this one too, but he's also only 44" back and he's not a guy the GC men will want to give a nice easy lead to, even if he's been telling everyone he's only here to try to win stages.. wait until he loses more time. 

Tratnik lost 9'36" today, so he could well have been thinking about an attack tomorrow, Gino Mader is too close on GC I think (44") and Rafael Valls doesn't seem to have good legs at the moment, and I don't think any of the other Bahrain guys will be going. 

Felix Grosschartner did a lot of pulling today with his team-mates, but he also dropped off quite early and rolled home 9'36" down. I had him as a possible for this stage too and I'm glad that he did roll home at his leisure today, he should be keen on getting away on this one, if he shows the legs he had in the ToTA. He opened at 22/1 and I took that, he's 16/1 best price now and that's worth a go too. 

Androni are sure to try to get some men in there again, after two were sent up the road today. Maybe it's Eduardo Sepulveda's turn? He is riding well, took 3rd in the Tour of Turkey recently, but he's only 1'18" down on GC.. Maybe Ineos will be happy to shed the jersey to someone like Sepulveda and Androni for a few days.. 

Also Natnael Tesfatsion might like this one, it's hilly, but not too hard and he can sprint a little at the end of a hilly day - he rode well in Coppi e Bartalil recently and took a great 18th place today. He's only 3" further back in GC though, so maybe not. 

Israel SUN will be looking to Dan Martin on a finish like this, and if it comes to a GC finish he might have a chance of attacking away while the GC men maybe look at each other. But also they have Alessandro De Marchi who might fancy his chances in the break on a stage like this, but he too is only 33" back, so again, we might have to wait to back him, as he's going well.

Lotto have a few options too, with their young guns Kobe Goosens and Harm Vanhoucke two who are going well and will like the stage. Vanhoucke is too high up on the GC I think, but Goosens is almost 14" down and might get in the break, maybe with De Gendt and might be able to finish it off if De Gendt looks after him all day. He's 66/1 with Betway and that's worth adding. 

EF might try to send someone up the road, but most will probably stay with Carthy to look after him.. Guerreiro is only 50" down though and might save his legs for a day with more KOM points up for grabs, so instead maybe Simon Carr might give it a go, he's over 10 minutes down now so will get the freedom to go and has been riding really well this season, the 8th place on Prati di Tivo behind Pogacar and Yates probably the highlight, 11th in Strade Bianche a good result for a stage like this too. 

The bookies have priced it up like it's going to be a GC day though, with Simon Yates the 13/2 favourite, but he's an uneasy favourite as he opened at 9/2 and has been drifting as it looks like lots of break guys are being backed. Yes, of course he has a big chance if it comes to a GC battle, he is the outright favourite to win this race and will be looking to lay down a marker early in this race versus his rivals.

He's had mixed results on the first mountain stage of races this year though - in Tirreno he lost 1'22" to the Alaphilippe/Pogacar group on the first mountain stage on stage 2, and 29" in the hilly, but not mountainous finish to stage 3 won by MVDP. Then he went out the next day and rode brilliantly on Prati di Tivo, only finishing 6" behind a flying Pogacar. 

In Catalunya stage 3, to Vallter 2000 he lost 36" to brother Adam, 5" behind Thomas and Carthy and finished 12th again the next day, but lost 18" to Chaves and 11" to the likes of Porte, Thomas and Woods. He switched it up a gear though in the ToTA, with a brilliant victory on stage 2, beating Sivakov by 41" and Vlasov by 58", with Carthy +1'17". In general though it seems to take him a few stages to get going, so even if it did come down to a GC finish I'm not sure I want to back him at that price. 

Egan Bernal isn't much bigger at 15/2 2nd favourite, and he could well charge away from them on a finish like this if he's close to 100%, but is he? He looked alright today, riding well at the front end of the peloton, but I'm not prepared to take the risk until I see how he's going on a stage finish like this before looking to have a go on him later in the race.

As I write this, Remco Evenepoel has been cut to 8/1 from 10/1, with Bernal going out to 9/1, so it looks like Bernal is friendless and Evenepoel is being backed. Bernal friendless I understand, based on what I've said above, but for Remco to be cut from 9/1 to 7/1 there must be money coming for him, which is brave.

Yes, he did a good TT, and Ganna has said today that he's impressed with his strength on the climbs, but this is a whole different matter. Ok, the final climb is only 4.3kms long, but it's nearly 10% average, and comes at the end of a tough 100kms of hills, with GC men potentially going full gas with the pink jersey probably up for grabs. So again, a watch and see with him. 

Joao Almeida is 12/1, and if it comes to a reduced bunch sprint between GC men, then he has a big chance. Again, with the possibility of the Maglia Rosa going to the winner, he'll be looking to take it ahead of his younger team-mate so as to get the top of the pecking order in terms of who the team will work for. But as we're loaded up on him in lots of other markets, let's see how he goes tomorrow, cheer him on, but not lose any more money in case it goes all wrong for him. 

Vlasov, McCarthy, Formolo, Bilbao, Landa, Sivakov, Soler, I think they'll all be trying to come home with the main GC men, there shouldn't be any major gaps between them on such a short climb, but I don't think they'll be winning just yet. Bilbao maybe an exception to that claim though, I could see him attacking on the climb if there's a standoff and soloing to the finish.. Marc Soler could also do likewise, like he did in Romandie in conditions like this.

So I'm playing breakaway lottery tomorrow with some darts, hopefully we'll get some in a strong break, they get a nice 10 minute lead and hit the final climb with 3 minutes or more on the peloton and fight it out. I'll also be watching to back someone from the GC in play if the break looks like it isn't going to make it, maybe the likes of Soler, Bilbao or Dan Martin, watch Twitter for an update on that in play tomorrow. 

Also watch out for an update tomorrow morning if I hear any info from on the ground again. 

Update, 10am: I have thought about Taco's win yesterday and think Wanty will be buzzing after that win and will be keen to get guys up the road again. They might have several guys trying and they might get more than one in the break. Hermans, Petilli, Taaramae and Hirt could fit the bill, at some big prices. Petilli is only 40s with the bookies, which is quite short as he's never won a race, but he's 160 on betfair which is more interesting. Small stakes, but good to have them onside I think. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Gio Visconti at 33/1 with various 

1.5pts win on Felix Grosschartner at 16/1 with various

0.2pts win on Larry Warbasse at 400/1 with 365

0.3pts win on Kobe Goosens at 50/1 with Unibet

0.25pts win and place on Simon Carr at 80/1 and 20/1 with Unibet

0.2pts win on Hermans at 100/1 with various (120 on Betfair)

0.1pt win on Petilli at 160 on Betfair 

0.1pt win on Hirt at 300/1 with 365

0.1pt win on Taaramae at 150/1 with 365

Matchbets

Masnada to beat Caruso and Soler to beat Molard - 2pts at 11/10 with 365

Hugh Carthy to beat Landa - 2pts at evens (I think on a finish like this he'll have more of a punch than Landa, Landa's sprint is terrible and they could come in as a small group of 15-20 guys maybe.