Details

Published on Sunday, 09 May 2021 19:04

Giro d'Italia St 3  

Biella - Canale

Monday 10th May, 187kms    

An interesting stage that takes them south across some of the route of stage 2 and through the vinyards of the Asti in the Po Valley. It starts benign enough, but ends with quite a lumpy final 75kms as they enter the foothills of the Appenines. 

It could be real battle between the puncheurs teams who want to shake off the sprinters and the sprinters desperately clinging on as they go over the uncategorised lump with just 15kms to go. That climb, at Guarene, is 2.8kms at 6.6%, but also is the spot of the final intermediate sprint of the day, so we might even see the GC men scrapping for bonus seconds.

And there is one last chance for a late attack to split things up and for the puncheurs to steal a march on the sprinters, with the drag up to Occheti, which is about 4kms long, but kicks up for the laast 500m at 6.3%. From there it's gently downhill all the way to the finish, just 6kms away - a well-timed attack and sprinters' teams in disarray could well see a late move stay away. 

The weather is worth noting though, it looks like it's going to rain all day more or less, getting heavier in the afternoon, so it will add to the difficulty of the day and will affect different riders chances. There is also a 9/10mph wind coming from the north which will be in their faces on the run for home, it might not affect them too much on the final hill to Guarene as they will be sheltered by the hill, but it will be in their faces on the run for home. 

Stage 2 Review

Well it was a pretty boring day, the only thing of interest before the finish was the intermediate sprint, as Sagan and Viviani went for it, Viviani looking for keen for sprinters points. But after they rolled through the line with Viviani outsprinting Sagan for the 6pts, Gaviria rolled through and looked like he said something to Viviani, and then kicked again... Sagan and Viviani had sprinted for the 40km to go gantry and the sprint was actually about 500m up the road..

Gaviria ended up taking the 6pts from Viviani, who got 5, with Pasqualon taking 4. Also interestingly, Caleb Ewan had said in his pre-race interview he would be watching that sprint from the bunch, he was true to his word, with Groenewegen, Merlier and Nizzolo also sitting out the sprint, saving their legs for the finish. 

In the end the sprint was chaotic from a long way out, the wide roads causing the peloton to spread all over the roads in the last 3kms or so. The finish also was quite a tricky one with the finishing line appearing in front of them with only around 100m to go as they came around a bend. In the end, Merlier proved that he was the quickest, with a great sprint where he hugged the inside line all the way to the line, forcing others to come around him. He was impressive, but so too was Nizzolo who yet again finished 2nd in a Giro stage, for the 10th time in his career, increasing his record of 2nd place finishes without a win. 

Dylan Groenewegen did well, I think better than a lot of people thought he would go. He was right near the front for the last 4kms or so, but he was often isolated and had to do a lot of work by himself to stay in position and move up. He just ran out of gas in the last 30m, which is a pity as he stopped pedalling too soon and Viviani mugged him for 3rd place. Sagan wasn't far off in 5th. One consolation from today was that Viviani looks up for the points, going for the intermediate and sprinting to 3rd, he's now 7/1 from 16/1 we've backed him at for the points jersey. 

Very unlucky too with the Dekker/Consonni matchbet, it looks like Sabatinia and Consonni switched final placings, Consonni should normally be last man but instead in was Sabatini today, Dekker rolled home in 18th, with Consonni just three places behind him. Was a good bet though at the odds I still think.

Ewan never got in a blow in the sprint, I didn't see if he was blocked or something but he didn't even contest the sprint, whereas Gaviria was put in to the barriers by his own team-mate Molano with about 200m to go. There were good sprints too by Fiorelli, Moschetti and Naesen to take top ten spots, apparently AG2R had discussed Naesen going for the sprint in their morning briefing, he must have great legs at the moment. 

The Route

They head south for over 100kms on almost totally flat and featureless roads. There are a couple of lumps and bumps along the way, but nothing to worry about. After 114kms though the race will start to heat up, as they pass through the first intermediate sprint spot and almost immediately start climbing the first major obstacle of the race - the Cat 3 Piancanelli, which is a longish 7.5kms but averages just 4.9%. 

After 140kms, as they now start to turn right and head in a westerly direction they hit the first of two Cat 4 climbs in succession - the Castino (5.1kms at 4.8%) and 4kms of a descent later the Manera (4.9kms at 5.9%). Neither of which are very long or difficult, but the pace will be up now with just 36kms to go from the top. 

After 18kms of a descent heading in a northerly direction, they approach Guarene from Vaccheria, and one final chance to decide the stage. With just 19kms to go they start up the hill to Guarene from Vaccheria - take a look at the route from Google maps below, I've plotted out the route from Vaccheria to Canale and you can follow the road yourself on streetview to see for yourself. 

Now this should be fun.. it starts gentle enough, but then start to zig-zag through the vinyards up at first quite wide and good roads. As they go further up the roads start to get narrower and steeper as they approach Guarene, the roads are very narrow in places, only 4 or 5 riders wide. It averages 7.1% for 2.6kms and hits a max of 15%, with several steep ramps as they go through Guarene. It should be a great launching pad for late attacks. I think we will get puncheurs mixing it up with GC teams and I think we will almost certainly see a lot of the sprinters shelled, as the pace is sure to be furious as there are sprint bonus seconds up for grabs at the top of the hill.

Once over the top it descends for about 4kms on straighter, getting wider roads, before starting to drag up again, with a few little kickers with just 7 or 8kms left, one of 500m at 6.3%. If there are a few escapees just up the road, they might be reeled in as the pressure is kept up from behind in order to not let the sprinters get back in. From 6kms to go it's more or less a gentle descent to Canale, with the finishing straight slightly downhill. 

There is a sharp right with 750m to go, almost a hairpin on a slight descent, they will have to slow right down there. Then a left 100m later, then a bit of a kink right and left with 450 to go before it straightens up with 400m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

So this is a bit of a different challege - the sprinters, and I mean specifically Groenewegen, Viviani, Merlier, Gaviria and maybe even Ewan, may not make it over the last climb with the front of the race I reckon. I say maybe not Ewan, but he looked brilliant in Milan San Remo on the Poggio earlier this year, and if he can hang on like he did that day, then the stage could well be his.

He might have TDG to help him, and Kluge and De Buyst should be there, with maybe Goosens and Vanhoucke, so he might be ok. He isn't a great wet weather rider though, he only finished 6th in that sprint stage 5 in Valencia when favourite when it was raining, he never looked like winning that day. He will be looking to make up for today though, he was disappointed with the way it played out and that he couldn't get involved in the sprint, bad positioning to blame. With less sprinters and potentially a smaller peloton involved he should do better. It will be hard for him, but I think he might just make it.

If Sagan rides like he did in Romandie, we should see him right up there and in with a great chance of taking his first stage win. Benedetti, Bodnar, Buchmann, Grosschartner, Oss and Fabbro will be like a sprint train up that hill, they will line it out with a high pace, but not too fast so that Sagan can sit in. They will burn off a lot of the peloton and we might only have 40-50 guys heading towards the finish in the front group.

They are then powerful enough to keep the pace high enough at the front for the remaining 16kms to not let the dropped guys get back in, especially if they have some GC teams helping at the front, both to keep their men out of trouble and also if some GC guys got caught out on the climb and got separated from the main peloton. Sagan will like the wet conditions more than most too, and he wasn't far off today, but he will need to have dropped Ewan, Viviani and Nizzolo I think to win, so his price is a bit short for me, Ewan or Nizzolo could make it, if not both.

Giacomo Nozzolo will be absolutely on his limit I think to hang in there, he might struggle to make it, but he's not far off Sagan's level in terms of hanging in there over tough, late climbs, but he didn't make the front group in MSR, unlike Ewan and Sagan. He did finish 5th in MSR in 2020 though, so it looks like it depends on the day with him maybe. He won't mind the rain too much, but the likes of Walscheid, Lindeman, Campanerts and Wisniowski will be crucial to his chances to get over the hill at the front and stay in a good position. He sprinted well today, just couldn't get past Merlier. 

I think Merlier will also be on the limit to stay with the front group, and I'm not sure he has the team to look after him like Bora do and maybe even Lotto do for terrain like this. He'll be fighting on his own maybe, possibly Vermeersch and Vervaeke will be able to stay with him. He isn't bad at getting over the hills though, but the 6/1 now on him isn't great, he was 10/1 before winning today and that is more like it. 

Patrick Bevin is right up there in the betting at 20/1, but if his performance in the TT is any sign of his form at the moment then I'm not touching him, he was very disappointing. He had been going well in the two previous stages in Romandie though before abandoning, taking a 3rd and 2nd place, so it must have come on him suddenly, like stomach problems, as I don't think he'd have been sprinting to 2nd the day before if he was coming down with a cold or something. If he did have stomach problems it can take it out of you for a week or so, so it might be too soon to start backing him, maybe worth just watching him for now. 

David Dekker might hang in there, but I can't see him winning a sprint against the likes of Sagan and Ewan, and I don't think Groenewegen makes it. 

There could be late attacks of course and we could see the likes of Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Matej Mohoric, Alberto Bettiol, Giulio Ciccone, Clement Champoussin and Gianluca Brambilla attacking up that last climb up to Guarene and hoping to take a strong group with them. Bettiol has good legs at the moment and he could hope to take a small group of 6-10 guys and they might, just might make it if the sprinters are really struggling behind, their teams might try to re-collect themselves for a chase to the finish, and if they leave it too late, with a strong group up front, with wet roads, they might just stay away. He was 50/1 and I was going to back him, but he's been cut to 33/1 now.. still might be worth a small bet. 

Lawrence Naesen also seems to have great legs, judged by the fact AG2R were going for him in today's stage, he's 300/1 but he'll be on his limit to get over the hills too, he wasn't able to stay at the front on the hilly stages in Romandie, but at that price he's worth a tiny interest. 

This is a really tricky stage to call.. there are all sorts of question marks around the course, the weather, whether GC men will go for it, whether the sprinters will make it or not and how many of them, will they have any kick left at the finish after the hills, etc, etc. When Betway put up their prices mid-way through today's stage they had Ewan at 10/1 and I took that, I thought it was too big. They INSTANTLY cut him to 7/1 where is now still at and I think that might still be worth a small bet. But Sagan holds all the aces tomorrow I think and has to be backed at 5/2 as a saver, with a place bet on him as well, just in case another sprinter makes it to the finish with him and pips him.  

UPDATE - 10:46am: I've been told that Dekker is staying with Dylan today, which he's not pleased about as he fancied his chances in the rain today, as long as they didn't go full gas over the final hill.. They are hoping Dylan makes it, but I think it will be unlikely, so Cimolai to beat Dekker bet looks even better now.. He's been cut to 7/10, but if you're not on yet, that's worth taking still. Cimolai should handle this hill better and was in the top 10 today so he's got good legs. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Sagan at 5/2 and 3pts on him to place at 7/10 with Unibet

1pt win on Caleb Ewan at 7/1

0.25pts win on Alberto Bettiol at 33/1with various

0.1pts e/w on Lawrence Naesen at 300/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Sagan to beat Nizzolo and Ewan to beat Merlier - 2pts on the double at 21/20 with Unibet boosted

Cimolai to beat Dekker - 2pts at 6/5 with Unibet

Almeida to beat Evenepoel and Vendrame to beat Battaglin - 1pt on the double at 5/4