Liège-Bastogne-Liège '17

Details: Published on Saturday, 22 April 2017 13:13

Liège-Bastogne-Liège

Liège to Ans

Sunday 23rd April, 258kms

So there was indeed a sense of deja-vu at Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday with the same 1-2 as in 2014, and without Alaphilippe the same 1-2 you could say as last year. Valverde did what Valverde does and Martin does what Martin does and got his positioning all wrong with 500m to go.

It was an eventful finish to the race with Jungels and De Marchi at least putting it up to Movistar and Valverde, with Jungels holding a 53" lead with just 6kms to go. But the gap tumbled as Movistar and Orica pushed at the front and he was swallowed as they were half way up the hill. Michael Matthews disappointed his backers as he never even gave them a shot of excitement, pulling instead on the approach to the foot of the Mur.

As the race came to a climax, Woods was right at the front with Uran not far behind, but they both faded out of it. The 20 year old David Gaudu of FDJ at least had the balls to try to attack on the climb, the rest just waited. Dylan Theuns did a superb job to push after Valverde when he went, hanging on for 3rd place. But when Valverde went at his trademark 200m to go point he put the race to bed in the matter of ten pedal strokes. Albasini rode well as did Henao, but they were chasing shadows. Dan Martin was behind a wall of probably ten riders with 300m to go, he hadn't a chance of responding to Valverde's move, but he again proved best of the rest with a very strong closing 200m to take 2nd and land the each-way money at least for us.

At 258kms long, 'La Doyenne' is 5km longer than in 2015, but still 5kms shorter than the 100th edition in 2014. It is the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. The finish is of course an iconically tough hill, but is a very different prospect to the Cauberg or the Mur de Huy, and is preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way. Most notably, the Côte de la Redoute and the Côte de Saint Nicholas. Coming with just 5km to go, it usually sees a final selection before the last climb up to the finish in Ans.

Last year the organisers threw in a new twist with just 3kms to go with the new climb of the Côte de la Rue Nainot, but they have dropped it again this year, so it's back to the traditional finish with the final kilometre charge up the hill and sharp turn to the left for the finish line.

And what a race we had last year too - with Woet Poels pulling off a stunning 25/1 win at the end of an eventful race. The weather was terrible, with snow, sleet and driving rain bombarding the riders for most of the day, forcing them to robe and disrobe on multiple occasions. Movistar took over the controlling of the race from a long way out and Carlos Betancur attacked more in the last 60kms than he did in the rest of the season combined.

In the end, Movistar neutralised the pack on La Redoute and Diego Rosa, Ilnur Zakarin, Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe all tried to do something in the last 10kms but it was on the new penultimate climb with 3kms to go that the race winning move came. Michael Albasini drove hard at the front and only Rui Costa, Samu Sanchez and Woet Poels, who had been looking ominously good for most of the last 30kms, could go with him. They held a narrow lead all the way up the final climb and Poels got first jump on Albasini as soon as they straightened for home with 200m to go. There's no Poels this year, but Albasini has to be considered a challenger again this year with the form he's in.

This is one of the great races - a real race of attrition with nasty climbs coming one after the other for the last 100kms. It's one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly twice. Can Dan Martin emulate his compatriot and land his second win in La Doyenne? Can Valverde make it four wins to take him within one of the great Meckx? Can Van Avermaet continue his amazing season with a big ride here, where as he put it, he has "nothing to lose"? ? It's all up in the air, it's hard to call it, it should be great.

The Route

As they head south out of Liège they follow more or less the exact same route as last year - there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for over 260kms with a relentless run of of hills. There are many unclassified climbs and hills along the route, but the first classified climb comes after 78.5kms with the Côte de la Roche-en-Ardennes. The middle part of the race looks to be a lot easier than in recent years as they have removed the tough climbs of the Wanne and the Haut-Levee, but a bunch of climbs come thick and fast between the 168-198km mark.

After that comes the new climb that was introduced two years ago, the Col du Rosier, after 198kms which is 4.4kms at 5.9%. This is again followed by the Col du Maquisard after 211kms, which is 2.5kms at 5% average.

It's back on to the familiar run in though from there with the Côte de la Redoute next up after 222kms - another ridiculously narrow road that is barely wide enough for 4 riders to ride side-by-side. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills like in recent races, as there's just 30kms to go. It's then on to the Côte de la Roche aux Facons with just 19kms to go, another horrible climb considering they will have 292kms in the legs (9.3% for 1.5kms, the last 500m average nearly 11%.)

Then they hit what is usually the penultimate climb, the Côte de Saint Nicolas, where Pozzovivo and Caruso attacked in 2014 and where Betancur attacked in 2013 and kicked off the response which saw Martin, Scarponi, Rodriguez and Valverde break away in pursuit of Ryder Hesjedal who was up the road and set up the race-winning move for Martin.

The final hill to the finish is almost dead straight uphill and is one final, nasty, deciding test - 1.5kms at 5.6% with a left hand turn 100m from the line. Go too early and you could be caught late like Rodriguez in 2013 or Pozzo and Caruso in 2014. It can pay to attack it like Martin in 2013, it can pay to sit on the wheels and wait for the last 200m like Gerrans and Valverde in 2014 and 2015. Apologies, the map and profile below are from last years race, having trouble loading any images in as I have to use an iPad and it's rubbish for trying to update a website on.. It's quite similar of course though, the route doesn't change much..

The Weather

The forecast for this year's race is for it to be a pretty cold day, with morning temperatures of only around 4-6 degrees, with a possibility of a rain shower in the afternoon. It will hit a max of only around 10 degrees in the afternoon, so it's going to be a cold, hard day in the saddle for some.

Route Map

2016 LBL map

Profile

Contenders and Favourites

I finished this preview today with a heavy heart. The news of Scarponi's death genuinely upset me this morning, I read with disbelief what happened on Twitter. Any time I hear of any cyclist being killed upsets me, it stirs up horrible memories of when I was a junior rider and received the news that a club mate and friend had been killed by a motorbike while out training. It hits home how vulnerable we all are every time we set out on our bikes.

After Operacion Puerto where Scarponi was found to be the owner of the blood bags code named Zapatero, I lost respect for him, but came around to really liking him in recent years for his dedication to his team-mates and his consistent solid riding, and with the acceptance that he was just doing what everybody else was at the time... I was genuinely happy to see him win just a matter of days ago and his antics with Frankie were one of my favourite things from a cyclist on Twitter and reflected a warm, funny, entertaining guy. He only posted a picture on Twitter last night with his two little kids on his back, one wearing a ToTA leaders jersey, a beautiful but sad last momento of him. RIP Michele.

I guess we have to start with Alejandro Valverde - three time winner of the race, runner-up twice and 3rd once (or twice if you count 2010 which was taken off him for being a naughty boy and getting caught). He added a fifth title to his haul of Fleche-Wallonne wins on Wednesday with his usual consummate ease, yet another win in his stunning season to date. He has only finished outside the top ten once this season, way back on Jan 29th, but has racked up 16 top 10s, 12 top 3s and 7 race wins, along with the GC in Andalucia, Catalunya and Pais Vasco. He simply is in unstoppable and unbelievable form for a man of 37.

He comes here as a justifiable favourite, and like in FW on Wednesday, the question is, who can stop him? He was favourite for this race last year as well though following his routine demolition of the field in FW, but it didn't work out so good for him and he limped home in 16th, in the main group 12" back from After dominating the pace-making for most of the last 90kms or so, they ran out of firepower to bring back Albasini's group when it's mattered most.

He has a strong Movistar team here with him, with former top ten finisher Dani Moreno a key aide for later in the race, either to go on the attack on maybe the Roche Aux Facons to make others work, or to just stay with him to protect him and cover the late moves by the opposition. Carlos Betancur was all over the place last year, attacking repeatedly in the last 30kms, it was hard to know what the point was of some of it. He rode well in FW I thought, I know I was slagging him off, but it was good to see him on the attack with De Marchi.

Will he have that freedom again Sunday to do just what he wants, or will he be asked to to stick closer to Valverde for longer to try to get him to the final in contention? Marc Soler has been riding well this year too, he and Rory Sutherland will be key support for Bala.

The others all know that if they take him around that final bend though he probably wins, so there are sure to be many attacks in the last 20kms to try to shake him off. It was interesting though that last year's decisive move came on the Rue Naniot, and they've dropped it this year, so it may be that we see more action on the Redoute or the Saint Nicholas this year, otherwise it could come down to a big battle between 30 or more guys on the final hill.

Michal Kwiatkowski is joint 6/1 2nd favourite with Dan Martin, and they are two quite different riders, but both with big chances. Kwiatkowski is possibly one that will attack from a little further out, he tried attacking inside the last 10kms last year, he could do similar this year. He is certainly riding well enough to be considered a serious contender here, whether by attacking away early or possibly even winning a sprint from a reduced group.

Former Winner Dan Martin blew his chances in the last kilometre of FW with his terrible positioning, but he was far superior to all the others, bar Valverde in the last 200m, so the legs are good. This is far more suitable a finish for Martin though with an easier gradient in the final hill and a much wider road to reduce his chances of screwing it up and getting boxed in.

He has to have a big chance again this year - Quickstep will look after him well, hopefully better than the job they did on Wednesday, when they led en-masse over the Mur on the penultimate passing, then disappeared when Martin needed them most at the end of the race. Martin can attack on the final hill with 1km to go and there might not be many able to stay with him if he surges like he did in the last 100m of FW. And if he has a small group with him he'd still have a chance in the sprint, depending on who's with him.

Michael Albasini is a rider who is in great form at the moment and has form on the course too. Orica fancied their chances it seems in FW on Wednesday as they drove hard at the front in the closing kilometres, and it worked in that they got Albasini in a great position to climb the Mur. He was right there at the front when things got serious, but like everyone else, he just didn't have the legs to go with Valverde. He was passed in the last 100m by Martin and Teuns but still took a respectable 5th place.

That followed his excellent ride in AG when he was with the Kwiatkowski and Gilbert group, but just couldn't match their punch on the decisive climb. He still had the strength to dispose of his rivals to sprint to 3rd place though. With those rides in mind, and with his superb ride in last year's race to finish 2nd, he has to come in to the reckoning again you'd think. But a word of caution - in his previous seven attempts at this race, his average finishing position was around 75th..

Sky have a second option with Sergio Luis Luis Henao - the Colombian rode well on Wednesday to take 4th in FW, to follow up on his excellent 6th in AG despite working for Kwiatkowski during the race. Winner of Paris Nice a month ago, he's gearing up for the Criterium du Dauphiné where he will be one of the favourites. He missed this race last year with his passport problems, but the year before he finished 7th in the sprint and 16th the year before. He has the power to be right at the front over the last few climbs and we could see him attack on the Saint-Nicholas's steep slopes and if he can take a few guys with him they could well stay away. If not, Kwiat can have a chance to sit in at least and try to sprint for the win.

Rui Costa has had a mixed season so far, sometimes showing signs that he could be on for a great season, with stage wins in San Juan and Abu Dhabi, along with two 2nds and a 3rd in Oman, but then not really featuring much in his European races so far this season. 18th in the GC in Tirreno, 38th in AG and 31st in FW, they were pretty mediocre performances. But he has finished 3rd and 4th here in the last two years, he's getting closer to a win.

It looks like it could be all for him in the team, but Diego Ulissi might have something to say about that. He rode really well in FW, was right at the front with 400m to go and fought his way to a fine 10th place. He could well be involved Sunday too, but his record in the race isn't great either, 55th, DNF, 66, 20, 78,76 read his results for the last six years.

Tom Dumoulin is very high up in the betting for a Classic if you ask me, sitting as he does as 5th favourite at just 22/1. Especially when you consider his best result in the race has been 25th two years ago. But he did finish 8th in the U23 version of the race back in 2011 when he was just 20 years old, and Tom Dumoulin of today is a lot different to Tom Dumoulin of two years ago.. He's developed in to far more of a climber and it shows in his results, with a stage win in Andorra in the TDF last year and 8th place in this year's Strade Bianche. He has just finished a training block at altitude in Teide as part of his preparation for the Giro, he hasn't raced since MSR over a month ago.

I'm a little worried about his lack of race-fitness after coming back from altitude, and also, I think they might have a better hope with their other leader for the race, Warren Barguil.

Barguil had a good FW, being at the right place at the right time, thanks to some strong work by Matthews. He eventually finished 6th, but he was very happy with his performance and said that he had good sensations and was really looking forward to LBL. He also finished 6th here last year, attacking out of the Valverde group in pursuit of Zakarin and finishing just ahead of Kreuziger. I think he could be a key player again Sunday and I'd rather be on him than Dumoulin at a slightly better 25/1.

Rigoberto Uran and Domenico Pozzovivo are both around 33/1 and both will probably be involved, but I can't see them winning it. I've given Uran a few chances now this year and he has disappointed too many times, I can't see a scenario where he can skip away and win this. Pozzovivo on the other hand has just finished a pretty successful Tour of the Alps where he rode very well, finishing stages in 3rd, 4th and 5th, and 3rd overall. He is riding well this year, and he has finished 5th and 8th here in the past, but he has not put his hands in the air for over two years since winning a stage in Trentino in 2015 and was way down in 63rd last year.

Orica-Scott come here with a powerful squad in support of Albasini, but on any given day there are a number of other members of the squad who could challenge too. Adam and Simon Yates are both 40/1 and both could be involved in the finish of this race, they are developing in to fine climbers and one-day racers as we saw with Simon's win in Paris Nice and in the Miguel Indurain and Adam's fine win in the Clasica San Sebastian in 2015.

Orica also have former winner Simon Gerrans, but unlike Alejandro Valverde and Philippe Gilbert, he doesn't seem to be drinking from the fountain of eternal youth and is a shadow of his former self. Romain Kreuziger is in good form too, as is Daryl Impey, and they certainly have what Matty White described as 'strength in numbers'. We could see 3 or 4 Orica men in the mix coming to the last 30kms.

Romain Bardet, Tim Welles and Bauke Mollema are other climbers who could be involved in the finish here too. In 2011, when Dumoulin was finishing 8th, Bardet finished 2nd behind Tosh Van Der Sande. Since then he has also finished 13th twice, 10th and 6th, his best result coming in 2015 in the sprint behind Valverde. He has been going ok so far this year, he was sitting in 3rd in Catalunya before the final TT, where a poor performance saw him slip down to 15th, but I think we will see him in the top 10-15 on Sunday, but I'm not sure he's capable of a top 3.

Dylan Teuns was a bit of a revelation in Fleche-Wallone, driving at the front in the last 300m and hanging on for 3rd place. He had said in the morning though that his form was really good and he was coming up to the top level, and he certainly showed that in FW. He's riding in the same team here though as Greg Van Avermaet who has decided to ride it as he has 'nothing to lose' according to himself.

GVA has had an incredibly busy, but successful spring Classics campaign so far, and I think he was starting to show some signs of fatigue in AG last weekend. I don't know how he's going to go, he could be anything here - he could attack from far out again, he could hang in there and attack on the final hill, or sprint for the win. Or he could work for Teuns or Caruso and fade out of it long before the finish.

Damiano Caruso pulled out of the Tour of the Alps on the very last day while sitting in 8th place so he could rest ahead of LBL, he must be either fancied to go well by the team, or is needed as a domestique in the services of Teuns or GVA.

Diego Rosa will be on minder duties for Sky, but if he gets a chance to attack he could have an outside chance at 100/1.

Jacob Fuglsang was one who could have had an outside chance, but understandably Astana have pulled out of the race after the devastating news of Scarponi's death. David De La Cruz offers an alternative option to QuickStep, he could be one that they send up the road earlier on like say on La Redoute or the Roche Aux Facons to give Martin an easier rider behind, and he's been riding so well this year he might have an outside chance of hanging on. A stage win in Paris Nice and Pais Vasco shows he has stepped up a level again this year and he might get a chance to attack.

Larry Warbasse is riding really well for Aqua Blue, he pulled out of ToTA after finishing 7th in stage 4, he's really happy with his form at the moment.. He could go on the attack early doors, or possibly Lars Petter Nordhaug could have an outside chance for them too. Rafal Majka represents Bora's best chance probably but Jay McCarthy could feature too. Lillian Calmejane has said this week that it's a race that suits his qualities the best, but it could be a bit soon to see him pulling off a big ride tomorrow, but I think give him a few years and he could well be involved. And could Tosh Van Der Sande repeat his victory in the U23 version of this race back in 2011? It's hard to see it happening..

So. Loads of guys in with chances, but the race probably revolves around the 1-2 from Fleche-Wallone and the former winners Valverde and Martin. Movistar and QuickStep should control the race, maybe Orica and Sky too, so I don't give the early break any chance of making it. We'll get attacks on the St Nicholas, but it's likely to just end with a small group of 20 or so fighting it out up the final hill. I think Dan Martin has a big chance - this is far more his race than FW, and I expect him to go very close to winning it. Albasini is riding just so well at the moment too he could well make the podium, but I also fancy Warren Barguil to go well and could sneak a podium spot. De La Cruz is my longshot to give it a go from a bit further out.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 13/2 with Corals paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Michael Albasini at 18/1 with Corals paying four places

0.5pts each-way on Warren Barguil at 25/1 with Corals paying 4 places

0.3pts each-way on Davd De La Cruz at 125/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Barguil to beat Kwiatkowski - 2pts at 5/6

Ulissi to beat Woods, Vanendert to beat Mendes, Slagter to beat Gerrans - 2pts at 9/4

Wellens to beat Calmejane, Henao to beat Teuns, Bardet to beat Uran - 2pts at 5/2

Dumoulin to beat Van Avermaet - 2pts at 5/4

Here are my top ten riders to watch in Liege-Bastogne-Liege for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

1 Michael Albasini