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Published on Tuesday, 18 April 2017 22:43

La Flèche Wallone

Binche to Mur de Huy

Wed. 19th April, 204.5kms

After a dramatic Amstel Gold Race on Sunday we move on to the famous climb of the 'Wall of Huy' in La Flèche Wallone Wednesday. It's a very different finish to the AGR with the finish line at the top of an extremely steep climb, where only the punchiest of riders have a chance. 

It was an interesting and eventful last 50kms in Amstel, but let's face it, it was pretty dull up until then. Philippe Gilbert continues his unbelievable hot streak with yet another long-distance win, this time he had some company though with a group of strong riders that included Kwiatkowski, Izagirre and Albasini. It was all kicked off though by Tiesj Benoot on the Kruisberg, a climb I expected the race to come to life on, but then he dropped his chain on the Fromberg and that was the end of him. 

The lead group only had a tiny advantage of 13" or so on a strong group with Valverde and Van Avermaet, but maybe GVA was knackered after his hectic week like I suggested he might, and maybe Valverde was looking after himself for Wednesday a bit, because they didn't make inroads in to the leaders. As for the peloton, once more we saw "after you, no fuck it, after you" with the chase responsibilities and it was a pathetic effort again from a tired bunch of guys. Gilbert rode on to the finish with Kwiatkowski, and despite crashing earlier, damaging a kidney (which saw him pissing blood in doping control) and giving Kwiat a 10m head start in the sprint, he somehow found the energy to get back up and win. 

Yes, Kwiatkowski maybe threw it away by jumping with 350m to go in to a headwind, but he saw a chance to go and he went for it. Maybe if he waited 5 seconds more he'd have won, but who knows. I knew I should've backed Albasini at 80/1 each-way, a big price like that for an Ardennes hard-man was crying out to be backed each-way at such a big price.

As it was, it was disappointing that Colbrelli missed the split, as he clearly was the strongest sprinter, beating Matthews once again, but only for 9th place. Coquard DNF'ed, not sure what happened to him as there was zero info from him or his team on twitter as to why he stopped. 

Anyway, on to Fleche-Wallone and it's a short preview this time around as I have been handicapped by the lack of a computer ever since some scumbag stole it out of my bag on Thursday evening.. There is no Gilbert of course as he's lying in a hospital bed, he's going to miss FW and LBL on Sunday, and the Giro too. But I'm sure he doesn't mind too much, he could retire for the rest of the season now and it has been his most successful one in several years. With no Alaphilippe here either, it's all on Dan Martin's small shoulders for la Fleche. 

Alejandro Valverde has bossed this race in recent years and is going to try to extend his record four wins to an incredible five wins, having taken this race for the last three years running and also in 2006. He was level on three wins with Davide Rebellin ('09, '07, '04) and Merckx, Argentin and Kint coming in to last year's race, but blew them out of the record books in style with a comfortable win over Alaphilippe and Martin. 

First run in 1936, the Fleche, or the 'Arrow' missed just one edition during the war in 1940, rather incredibly carrying on during the other years while war raged in Europe. The race is of course dominated by the finish up the famous Mur de Huy, a horrible finish to a tough race. The Mur is 1.3kms long at an average of 9.3%, but it is really steep in parts, particularly on the inside of some bends, hitting over 24% in places. Go too early and you get swamped by the late finishers. Valverde seems to time it perfectly every year, he has it down to an art form.

But there's a lot more to the race than just the finishing dash up the Mur. Not only do they climb it twice already during the race, but as they criss-cross between the provinces of Namur and Liege they hit a bunch of other Côtes along the way. 

The event was first run on roads from Tournai to Liège, growing from 236km to 300km - its longest ever distance - in 1938, and the route has changed venues and distances many times over the years. Again this year there is another change to the route with it being nearly 9kms longer and starting in Binche instead of in Marche en Fammene last year. 

The Route

There's yet another major change of direction to the race this year, as they are now starting in Binche, way over to the west of Huy, rather than in Marche en Fammene which was south-east of Huy, close to Luxembourg. After heading south for the first 23kms or so they then turn north-east and ride in pretty much a straight line for the next 90kms or so before they start to spiral in towards the finishing circuit around Huy. First hill is the Cote d'Amay after 131.5kms and just 15kms later they go over  the finish line for the first time on the top of the Mur de Huy.

Don't expect any fireworks first time up, but it could trigger some attacks by those eager to try their luck from a little further out. From here on in the finishing circuit is familiar, and like last year, they hit the Côte d'Ereffe (2.2kms at 5.9%) as they head out on the circuit, followed quickly after by the Cote de Cherave (1.3kms at 8.1%) and back over the Mur de Huy again to start a final lap of the same circuit. of 35kms before the charge to the bottom of the Mur for the last, frantic charge up the hill. 

Contenders and Favourites

Alejandro Valverde - It feels like deja-vu here, last year I wrote "Can anyone stop him? He's short at 9/4 best price, as short as 7/4, but he looks the most likely winner on paper" Looking back at it, 9/4 was a gift, glad we were on, but this year he is an insanely short best price 5/6 with Paddy Power, but generally around 4/5 and as short as 4/6 with those jokers at Betfred, where it really is only a market for show, they don't want to take a bet and if you still wanted to take the 4/6 with them you can probably get £1.50 each-way on..

It almost feels like I should just write "He wins, end of preview" as he looks nailed on. But as Tiesj Benoot put it after dropping his chain on Sunday "Shit happens" and you never know what could happen. If all goes well for him, yes, he wins. He is in incredible form this year, is supreme on this climb, he times it brilliantly and that kick with 300m to go is devastating - few can go with him, and when he kicks again as they hit the flatter slopes when everyone is in the red, he just extends his lead. Even if he is slightly behind someone with 100m to go I'd be confident he could get back up to win it. but 5/6? I'm almost tempted to take it, but I won't..

I guess the only thing stopping me from going balls-deep on him is the way AG worked out on Sunday, as he missed the key move when he really should have been all over it, and wasn't strong enough to help GVA pull back the leaders and eventually finished 19th, he couldn't (or couldn't be arsed to) compete in the sprint for 9th. That might be a small chink in his armour, maybe he is going off the boil a little after a blistering start to the year.

QuickStep Floors are now relying on Dan Martin exclusively it would seem, although they might have a small chance too with Gianluca Brambilla. Petr Vakoc rand Bob Jungels are too heavy for this finish, and will be on steering/babysitting duties for Martin on the approach to the bottom of the Mur for the final time. But can Martin finally crack it? He has come close several times in the past and looks made for the steep gradients. His record here in the last five years reads 3rd, DNF (crashed), 2nd, 4th and 6th so another top 3 looks a very likely possibilty.

He's had a reasonably good start to the year with a win in the Algarve and another eight top 10's, with 5th, 6th, 3rd and 6th placings in the GC in the four stage races he's started in this year. He was nowhere to be seen in Amstel, but it was just a training ride for him ahead of the next two races, he was never going to win there... he ended up abandoning when out of contention to save the legs for tomorrow. He'll need to be in the first 5 I think hitting 500m to go, and possibly try to get the jump on Valverde, hoping Valverde is boxed in. If Valverde goes first, I'm not sure Martin will be able to pull him back. The 7/1 with PP looks ok, he should be very close to a top 3.

Sergio Luis Henao probably represents Sky's best chance, although he missed last year's race due to his biological passport 'problems'. The diminutive Colombian finished down in 7th place in 2015, failing to go with the big hitters when they struck for home, he came home with the group given a time 4" behind Valverde. He has finished 2nd here in 2013 too, so is capable of a decent showing on this climb. He sometimes lacks the positional ability and the kick of Valverde, but if he can be in the right place with 400m to go he has a chance. He is 8/1 with Corals and that might be an ok each-way bet, I think he could be close this year, and if Valverde and Martin are on a bad day, he could just land it. 

But they also have a great backup plan in Michal Kwiatkowski, he's 4th favourite at 14/1 and the form he is in, he could well be up there too. But he put a lot in to Sunday's race though and he was let pretty disappointed, it might be hard for him to lift himself for this. It is every man for himself though when it comes to the last 500m, if he's there or thereabouts he could be in the first five.. But will he work for Henao given how hard Henao worked for him Sunday? That's the more likely scenario if you ask me.

Michael Albasini is another of the old guard who goes very well here, finishing 7th last year and almost winning it in 2015, but just wasn't able to go with Valverde. He has a superb record on this climb, having finished 2nd, 3rd, 7th threetimes, 9th, 10th and 11th over the years here. He has a fantastic knack of positioning himself in the right place through the lower part of the climb and then pounces with 250 or so to go. He is riding really well, but significantly for me, he just didn't have the kick to go with the top two on Sunday when they went. I think he will have needed to stay with them on that climb to temp me in to backing him, at just 14/1. 

Michael 'Rusty' Woods was 300/1 for this last year when I backed him and people thought I was mad, he went off at 100/1and was bang there in contention as they hit the last 500m. He made a bad positioning mistake though and got cut up and it was a battle to get back from that. He finished 12th, beating a lot of fancied riders. He's been riding well enough this year too but he's only 25/1 for it this year. I still would like to have him onside though, I think Cannondale are due a big result soon.

Dani Moreno goes well here but he's now on the same team as Valverde, so unless there is an issue for Bala he's not going to be featuring in the first three I think. Adam and Simon Yates are priced at 33/1 with several bookies, they're not even riding.. Alexis Vuillermoz Finished 6th here in 2015, leading home the second wave of finishers after Moreno in 5th. In the TDF stage that year that finished on the Huy he finished an impressive 3rd, ahead of Dan Martin and Van Garderen, Nibali and Quintana. he looks a decent price at 36/1 with Hills.

Rui Costa could go well at 100/1, he finished 10th last year, or how about his team-mate Louis Meintjes at a big looking 125/1, he's not had a bad start to the season and is light and punchy enough to maybe feature here at a big price. He was 26th last year, he could be top 10 or better this year. And that really is about it I think, maybe Ion Izagirre can go ok , or Jelle Vanendert, but his form doesn't look hot enough for me at the moment. It's unlikely to be a breaker wins it, but we've seen lots of races won recently by attacks from 40-50kms out, could it happen again? I'm not sure this time, it will be the mad dash up the Huy and the Valverde show once again..

So im going to avoid some of the top favourites, but I think Martin is an ok each-way bet, we should get our money back at least.. And if the top favourites disappoint in any way maybe a decent-priced outsider can sneak in to the top 2 or 3, maybe even win it.

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 7/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Michael Woods at 22/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 36/1 with WillHill

0.25pts each-way on Louis Meintjes at 80/1 with Skybet paying 4 places or take 125/1 with Bet365 paying 3 places if you're feeling a bit braver

Added this morning - 0.3pts ew on Rigo Uran at 40/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

Matchbets

Meintjes to beat Latour - 2pts at 8/11

Albasini to beat Kwiatkowski - 3pts at evens

Uran to beat Bardet, Martin to beat Henao and Vanendert to beat Fuglsang -2pts on the treble at 11/4 - all with Bet365

Here are my top ten riders to watch in Fleche-Wallone for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

1 Sergio Henao

2 Michael Albasini

3 Alejandro Valverde

4 Louis Meintjes

5 Michal Woods

6 Dan Martin

7 Dani Moreno

8 Jelle Vanendert

9 Tom Jelte Slagter

10 Rigo Uran

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