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Published on Sunday, 09 April 2017 20:53

De Brabantse Pijl 2017

Leuven to Schoten

Wed 12th April, 205.3kms

After an amazing Paris-Roubaix last Sunday, we move on to the final race of the 'Flanders Classics' on Wednesday with the Brabantse Pijl or 'the Brabantse arrow'. This is a race for the puncheurs, with plenty of little hills, some cobbles, but almost always ends in a reduced sprint finish of some sort. 

Last year saw Petr Vakoc take one of his best wins of his career with a superb attack the final time up the Schavei climb. It was one of the better runnings of the Brabantse Pijl, with attacking racing all day that saw Julian Alaphilippe and Tim Wellens attack hard and look for a while like they might even go all the way. But they were caught late on by Petr Vakoc, Enrico Gasparotto and Daniel Tanner, but when Vakoc attacked at the bottom of the Schavei there was no answer from the rest and he stretched clear. 

It was the second year in a row that Tanner had come close but ended up 11th as they were swallowed up by the chasing peloton in the last 500m. Gasparotto went on to claim 2nd with Gallopin in 3rd and Bryan Coquard won the sprint for 4th from Michael Matthews in the peloton. 

2015 saw Ben Hermans pull off a surprise win when he soloed away from his late break-away companion David Tanner and just held off the chasing pack. In 2014 Philippe Gilbert landed his second victory, with Michael Matthews finishing 2nd again. Gilbert used all his experience of the course to out-fox Matthews on the final bend. Matthews went up the inside, got trapped a little behind Arashiro, whereas Gilbert went around the outside and got an early jump on Matthews. 

Gilbert has a pretty good record in the race to say the least. He didn't take part last year, but in the eight years before that he had finished 1st, 2nd, 12th, 1st, 5th, 9th, 2nd and 3rd, an incredible series of results in one race. It's a really tough course, one for the real battlers and puncheurs.. Looking at the last few years result there were riders scattered all over the road with many of the field DNF'ing. It was even worse in 2012 when Voeckler won, with only 44 finishing out of 180 starters. 

Part of the reason for the high numbers of DNF'ers in 2012 was the terrible weather, with rain and hail hammering the peloton all day. This shouldn't be the case this year though as a sunny day is forecast, with temperature reaching 14º. Another general reason for the high number of DNF'ers, besides the tough course, is because of the nature and timing of the race - it essentially is a training ride to prepare for the Ardennes Classics for most of the peloton, which kick off on Sunday with the Amstel Gold race. 

One other thing to keep an eye on this year is the wind, there are south-west winds of up to 17-18mph forecast, which will mean a head wind heading down towards Nivelle, a cross-wind on the way out and back to the little loop and a tail-wind on the way back to the circuit. On the circuit it will be coming at them from all sides, given that it's a loop. 

The Route

The race starts in its traditional start town of Leuven and it is more or less the same route as last year's race, but 8kms shorter at 197kms. It heads in a predominantly south-westerly direction, passing by the finishing circuit loop after only about 10kms, but then continues south-west, but after 38kms, turns sharply northwards to take in the little loop near Alsemberg.  This loop contains the climb of the Rue de Hal, the Alsemberg and the Bruineput.

They then turn back the way they came and take in the the climbs of the Karbosstraat, Rue de Nivelles, Chaussee de Bruxelles and Rue Francois Dubois. They pass through the finish line after 127kms and head off on three laps of the finishing circuit of 23.4kms. And although there will be the traditional long break out front for most of the day, it's when they hit this finishing loop that things usually start to kick off. 

The finishing circuit has no fewer than five climbs over its 23.4kms, two of which are cobbled, meaning that they have to tackle 15 climbs over the closing 70km! 

The main challenges on the finishing circuit are the cobbled climbs of the Ijskelderlaan which comes 4.2kms from the finish line and the Schavei which is just 1.2km from the finish, with the road climbing all the way to the final bend. Once they hit the top the riders make a left-hand turn onto a slightly uphill finishing straight with just 200m to go to the line. You need to be in the first 5 or 6 taking the final bend as it is a very short run-in. The last 5kms are quite tricky with lots of bends and twists, including some hairpin bends on a descent, so you can see why the race is often blown to pieces.  

Contenders and Favourites

This is a 1. HC category race, which means that the World Tour teams don't need to take part, so we don't have all the best teams here. But we still do have a quality lineup of riders here with a lot of familiar faces from the last few years taking part again.

This time last year Petr Vakoc took his 3rd win of the season when he skipped away from them all, to land our bets at 33/1, my 50/1 shot Coquard was close, but not close enough in 4th. Vakoc had an excellent season last year with 5th in the Strade Bianche one of many fine results besides his three wins. This season has been a bit more barren though, with no wins yet, and his best result so far his 4th in Stage 6 of Catalunya behind Daryl Impey.

Given his form so far this year it's hard to see him pull a win like last year out of the bag, but maybe he has been timing his season for these races - he knows the finish suits him and he knows he can win it, but his biggest problem is going to probably come from inside his own Quick-Step team, as Philippe Gilbert is lining up here again after skipping it last year.  At 14/1 he doesn't appeal a great deal to me. 

And what a month or so Philippe Gilbert has had - 2nd in E3 and Dwars Door, a super stage win and the GC in the 3 days of De Panne and that amazing victory in Flanders. As mentioned above, he has a phenomenal record in this race with two 1sts, two 2nds, a 3rd and a 5th. The course suits him down to the ground, the finish even more so - he can attack on that hill and he can sprint if a few come with him. But he will have to go on his own - or at least with guys he can beat in the sprint. If he takes the likes of Matthews and Coquard with him they will beat him. 

But - there is a question-mark over whether PhilGil will be going full gas tomorrow or not, ahead of Amstel Gold on Sunday.. I spoke to a pro who is riding tomorrow and he said they were thinking he might ride it like Valverde did in the Miguel Indurain, in support of maybe trying to get a team-mate up for the win. If so, then he may well ride for Vakoc, attacking early and making them all chase, then ease his way home to the finish. Laurens de Plus could be another to give it a go, but I can't see him winning this. 

His former team-mate Ben Hermans won the race in 2015 and is back again to try to go better than his 25th place last year. He was very strong in this race in 2015, bridging to the earlier break, riding the rest of the breakaway off his wheel, bar Tanner, and then riding away from him on the Isjkelderlaan. He just managed to hold a surging peloton at bay up the final climb to the finish but looked very strong in the closing kilometres. He had a brilliant start to the year with his win in Oman and 2nd place in Catalunya, but he's gone off the boil a little since then. It's hard to know whether the 14/1 on him is good value or bad, on 2015 form it's excellent, on 2016, not so much.

Dylan Teuns could be another BMC man to watch in this race instead though, he should be given freedom to roam and could be dangerous. He finished in 28th last year and 40th the year before though so I'm not sure he likes the final hill so much, he might need to be part of a break or solo. Or possibly even Loic Vliegen - the lesser-heralded BMC youngster is having an ok season, and did finish 10th here last year when just 22 years old. Maybe a long shot for a few pennies at a big price of 50/1 with Skybet.

Michael Matthews didn't have a great start to the year but came alive in Pais Vasco with a stage win and a 2nd place, that really should have been two wins only they let Roglic go. What was impressive about that and his 4th place on stage 2 was how he got over the climbs at the end of the stages with the climbers in order to contest the sprints. That's what he needs tomorrow, to stay with the punchier guys over the hills and try to get to the finish with the leaders as he would probably win the sprint. 

In the last 3 years he has finished 5th, 2nd and 2nd. Last year he finished 2nd in the bunch sprint to Coquard for 4th place, the year before he won the bunch sprint behind Hermans, and in 2014 he was 2nd in the sprint to Gilbert. He always seems to find one too good for him, and it could well be the same again this year.  

If Matthews is going to be there, then Bryan Coquard will be there too you'd think, given how well he rode here last year. He has 4 victories to his name this season, including 2 just last week in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, so he's clearly in pretty good form. He has been found wanting so far in the Classics, but did ride well enough for quite a while in Flanders before fading away at the end. This though is a race he did a lot better at last year, winning the bunch sprint behind the three breakaway guys, beating Matthews in the process. It's not a great Direct Energie team that's here though, I'm not sure how much assistance they'll be able to give him towards the end of the race, he's very short at 11/1, he was 50/1 last year!

Lotto Soudal are surely desperate to try to rescue a disastrous month of classics for them. Once again they were found wanting in Paris-Roubaix, Jurgen Roelandts rode well all day to be fair, but ended up in 22nd place after cracking in the closing kilometres when GVA pulled away with Stybar and Langeveld. In the end, it was André Greipel who finished best for them in 7th, with Maes in 18th, Roelandts, Wallays and Sieberg in 22nd, 23rd and 24th.. 

They come here with a pretty strong team though - Tiesj Benoot is back after his DNF at Flanders, he is sure to be prominent and will more than likely be attacking late on in the race. It's his first time riding it though, so we've no course form to go on, and anyway Skybet haven't bothered to price him up. Tim Wellens has done this race twice but hasn't exactly troubled the podium, and his form has been patchy as well of late. Jelle Vanendert will be a dark horse to watch, but I think he will need to be part of a small break that comes to the final hill and he might have a chance. Tosh Van Der Sande would be their best hope in the sprint though if they can drag him to the finish up that hill. But I fear Lotto will be leaving empty handed again.  

Bahrain Merida could have chances with Sonny Colbrelli if he can stick with the puncheurs on the climbs, he has been riding well this year.. I had him as a dark horse for this race and was hoping for 25/1 or bigger, but he's 8/1 3rd favourite with Skybet! That's too short for me I think - if Bet365 or someone else comes out bigger later on I'll reconsider it. But it's unlikely we will get many more bookies pricing it up, Paddy Power seem to have almost given up completely and the rest just copy Bet365, so if they don't price it up we may not get any competition for prices. (Bet365 are a far better 14/1 now though...)

Enrico Gasparotto and Grega Bole could go well too, Gasparotto came alive this time last year, finishing 2nd here and then was a stunning winner of Amstel Gold and placed 5th in Fleche-Wallone. He's had a pretty average start to the year though, but the 7th place in stage 4 of Catalunya might be a sign of some form coming. 

Orica Scott have lost Matthews to Sunweb, but they have a few chances here too with Simon Gerrans starting to show a bit of form in Pais Vasco with his 3rd place on stage 1 in the sprint, but then disappeared after that, even abandoning on the final stage. He hasn't a great record in this race the few times he entered it though and I'm not sure it suits him so well. Instead they might look to Daryl Impey who looks to be in pretty good form at the moment too, with a stage win, a 3rd and a 7th in Catalunya. He was pretty off the pace last year, but I think his form looks to be better than this time last year, and at 66/1 he's an outsider I am having a few pennies on. Jens Keukeleire and Michael Hepburn could be break candidates, but I don't think a break will be winning this. 

Cannondale Drapac have a few chances too, with Toms Skujins in reasonably good form at the moment, winning stage 2 in the Coppi e Bartali, and he should have won the overall, but a Colombian rider cut him up in the deciding stage and he lost his chain, and with it his shot at overall victory. Despite not feeling great in Pais Vasco he was on the attack a lot too, and this sort of finish is one he likes, a short, punchy effort, he's worth a bit at 125/1 and I expect to see him on the attack at the business end of this race. 

Team captain is Alberto Bettiol apparently though, and incredibly he's available at a massive 200/1 with Bet365, he's only 40/1 with Skybet. He has been riding well lately and is a punchy rider who should be up there. I've heard he's really geed up for this and he could be involved, he has to be backed at 200/1 too. Alex Howes and Simon Clark could go well too, as could Tom Van Asbroeck if they can get him to the finish.  

Aqua Blue Sport have a few outsiders for this, with Lars Petter Nordhaug the sort of fiesty attacker who might go well here, but he's never done this race before which is surprising. Adam Blythe would have a chance if he can get to the finish, but in his two attempts at the race in 2012 and 2013 he was a DNF. If he can get over the hills and to the sprint with the likes of Matthews and Coquard he might have a chance at podium. Lasse Norman Hansen and Andy Fenn could go well too for them. 

Dimension Data has a chance with Nathan Haas, he has finished 6th here twice, in 2015 and 2014, so he may be one that can stick with the likes of Gilbert and Vakoc on the final climb. But his form hasn't been brilliant so far this year, he has disappointed a few times when more was expected of him. 

I can't see any of LottoNL-Jumbo or Bardiani troubling the podium, Simone Ponzi might have a chance in a reduced sprint for CCC, Maciej Paterski might try getting in breaks. Cofidis will be relying on Stephane Rosseto, Dimitri Claeys and Jerome Cousin I think, but I can't see them troubling the podium either. Roompot may look to Pim Ligthart, as he's in reasonably good form, but he has never gone well in this race. Wanty will probably have attackers in the break, Mark McNally a likely candidate as he has been very active recently, but they could also look to Dion Smith if they can drag him to the sprint, he finished 27th here last year, but is riding a lot better this year as his 4th and 5th places in Catalunya showed. He could be a big-priced outsider to have a punt on at a massive 300/1. 

I'm not sure about any of these favourites, and I'm not even sure it will end in a sprint, so I'm just going to have some small bets for fun. Gilbert could go for it, maybe he won't, and he's too short, even at the more sensible 3/1 with Bet365, to back. I think Vliegen is a big price at 50/1, and the two Cannondale boys can give us a bit of excitement at huge prices. And as Colbrelli is 14/1 with Bet365 he's worth a small bet if it does come to a sprint, as is Dion Smith as he's such a big price. 

Recommendation:

0.3pts each-way on Alberto Bettiol at 200/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Toms Skujins at 125/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Loic Vliegen at 50/1 with Skybet

0.2pts each-way on Dion Smith at 300/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 14/1 with Bet365

 Matchbets:

3pts on Sonny Colbrelli to beat Gilbert at 10/11 with 365

Meurisse to beat Howes, Vliegen to beat Martens, Vakoc to beat Gasparotto - 2pts at 2.8/1