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Published on Wednesday, 10 August 2016 00:04

Olympic Time Trial

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Wed Aug 9th, 54.6kms

So after a dramatic and fantastic Olympic Road Race on Saturday, where Greg Van Avermaet defied the belief it was a climbers course to take gold, the remaining riders line up for the Olympic Time Trial on a course of 54.6kms that takes in some of the road race course.

Last time around of course Bradley Wiggins won the gold in London, with Chris Froome taking the bronze and Tony Martin splitting the two of them with the silver. Of course Wiggins has replied but Martin, Froome, Phinney and Cancellara are back for another shot at it. They're joined by some of the also-rans from last time out like Vasil Kiryienka and Jonathan Castroviejo and some of the new crop of time triallists like Primus Roglic and Ion Izagirre. 

The Route

They start and finish in Pontal and do two laps of the Grumari circuit that was used in the Road Race on Saturday. A lumpy, bumpy start, then the Grumari - 1.3kms at 9.4%, with several really steep parts as we saw on Saturday. Then 6kms along the flat before they hit the Grota Funda - an easier climb at just 6.8% for 2.1kms, 

Then they do it all again before a flat run back to the finish line in Pontal. It's a hard course which mixes steep climbs, not so steep climbs and a lot of tricky descending too.  

Contenders and Favourites

It looks like a head to head between Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin, as two of the best time triallists in the world this year. Chris Froome was on fire in the time trials of the Tour de France - he finished 2nd in the first TT on a hilly course and then won the second mountain TT. Dumoulin got the better of him in the first TT by over a minute but finished 21" behind Froome in the second TT.

Dumoulin's crash in the later stages of the Tour put his participation here in jeopardy but he seems to have recovered well and the sustained support for him in the last few days suggests he is in great shape and rearing to go. He pulled off the unusual, but entirely expected and planned step of stopping after less than 10kms of the road race on Saturday to save himself for this whereas Froome was putting himself through the ringer on an extremely tough day in the saddle.

We know Froome recovers well and rode well enough in the road race to snatch 12th in the road race, but he may feel the effects of that race, and his tough Tour a little bit more than a slightly fresher and more relaxed Dumoulin. A week or so ago I thought Froome was a cert for this, but now having digested the events of the last few days, and having seen the money that has come for this I'm changing my mind.

It looks like such a two-horse race that it looks like all the others are scrapping for bronze, and that as you can get more or less 6/4 on both the top two in the betting that it almost looks like you should back both and you'll make a return.. Backing both would pay around 2/7 on your investment.

Tony Martin and Rohan Dennis are next in the betting around 9-10/1 but I'm not interested in backing either of them, Martin has been in poor form in TTs for quite a while now and Rohan Dennis has done nothing of note in over a year. Vasil Kiryienka is next and although fancied for the last Olympics he flopped badly, and he hasn't exactly been in great form this year either. Nor has Fabian Cancellara who was well off the pace in 23rd in the first TT in the TDF, and didn't start ahead of the second TT.

At least Primus Roglic and Ion Izagirre have put in some decent rides this year, Roglic winning the hilly TT in Chianti in the Giro and the Slovenian national championships and Izagirre won the TT in the Tour de Suisse and the Spanish National Championships, beating Jonathan Castroviejo. Both of these guys should like this course and should go well at tempting prices of 33/1 and 40/1 respectively.

Maciej Bodnar could also go well but I think he'd prefer a flatter course, but the only other two riders I'm slightly interested in and whom I think can go well are Taylor Phinney and Jonathan Castroviejo. Phinney has not raced since mid-June as he has been away specifically training for this and he is very confident of a big ride. 4th in the TT last time around when just 22, he would surely have been on track for a medal this time around were it not for his crash. At 100/1 with Betfair he looks way over-priced to possibly sneak in to 4th, it's a long shot, but he's half that price with most of the other books and only 40/1 in places.

Jonathan Castroviejo was 2nd in the Spanish national champs and 2nd in the TT in the Tour of Poland, 17" ahead of Roglic. He will like this course I think and could go well but it might be a stretch to reach podium.

I think this could be really tight between Froome and Dumoulin, but the weather forecast isn't great for tomorrow and I think that helps tilt the balance in Dumoulin's favour.  Start list and times here.

Just a plug too for my Vuelta previews, you can subscribe here - I will be getting content live as of from around Thursday next week. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 13/8 on Betfair

0.2pts each-way on Taylor Phinney at 100/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (take the 66/1 elsewhere, the 100/1 was gone before I could even get on.. or preferably just have 0.4pts on Phinney to finish in the top 3 with Skybet at 10/1.

0.3pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 40/1 with various  (take the 66/1 with Paddy Power now)

0.5pt on Ion Izagirre to finish in the top 3 at 9/1 with Skybet

2pts on Dumoulin to beat Froome forecast at 9/4 with Skybet

Matchbets:

Maciej Bodnar to beat Jan Barta - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Cancellara to beat Kiryienka - 2pts at 10/11 with Bet365

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