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Published on Tuesday, 01 September 2015 00:13

Australian Nationals Road Race 

Ballarat

Sunday 9th January, Buninyong, 183.6kms

The Australian national road race championships take place tonight with the Women and U23s kicking things off and the Elite men's race starting at 12pm local time, taking on the usual course around Buninyong in Ballarat.

Last year saw Heinrich Haussler mug Caleb Ewan on the line to win the Gold medal, out sprinting the Orica-GreenEdge man in a two-up sprint ahead of the remnants of the break that they were part of for the last 45kms or so. Neil Van Der Ploeg of Avanit Racing Team took 3rd place and they finished 52 seconds ahead of the group containing Richie Porte and Cadel Evans. In 2014, the race saw an elite trio of Gerrans, Evans and Porte slip away near the finish, with Gerrans always the most likely of the three to win it. Gerrans missed out last year after breaking his collarbone, but he's back this year to lead the OGE team in their search for another winners jersey.

The Route

The race is over 18 laps of a 10.2km rolling course, with the first 3km going uphill from the flag drop up Mt Bunninyong road, followed by 3km on a flattish plateau, before descending for nearly 5km down the steep, narrow winding descent of Fiskin Road. The last kilometer though is pretty straight and levels out more or less for the last 500m.

The climbs come in very quick succession, the first averaging 6.4% for 1.4km and the second, which start less than 500m later is also 6.4% average over 1.1km. The climbs are neither steep enough, nor long enough to really cause any damage to these guys normally, but doing them over and over again for 18 laps sees the race blow up usually in the latter stages. Two years ago when they hit the climb for the final time, the cream of the elite, Porte, Evans, Gerrans and Meyer got away and stayed away from the rest. Cameron Meyer had done a great job for Gerrans, attacking and playing the carrot up the road, forcing Evans and Porte to chase, and still came home 5" back in 4th place. Last year Drapac and OGE tried to blow the race up from about 5 laps out and they succeeded in getting a gap big enough to allow them to fight out the finish between them.

156 riders are scheduled to start

Contenders

Short preview as I haven't a great deal of time and there isn't a great deal of info to go on. Caleb Ewan is favourite at 2/1 with PP (The only bookmaker who could be bothered to make a market on the race) and he is clearly in great form, winning the Crit championships and 3 stages of the Bay Classic Series in the last week or so. 2nd last year, outgunned by the experienced Haussler, he has a big chance of pulling on the stripes of Australian champion in only his second attempt at doing so.

But his chances will depend on how the race goes and whether Simon Gerrans is there at the finish I believe. If Gerrans is involved at the finish then I think the team works for him. He is the senior statesman in the team and has a habit of throwing his toys out of his pram when he doesn't get want he wants, as we can see in his dislike of Michael Matthews, something I highlighted plenty of times last season, long before it came to the fore in the World Championships.

If Gerrans wants it, and is in good enough shape to go for it (which he claims he is) then I think the team works for him. He loves this course and if it comes to an elite group in the latter stages he is bound to be involved. He had a horror of a year in 2015 but that means that he should be relatively fresh and was able to start training for this part of the season earlier than usual and should be close to full sharpness.

That's not to say that Ewan won't be involved, as we saw last year he is well capable of a strong showing on this course, the climb of Mount Buninyong doesn't seem to bother him too much. But I think Gerrans in the champs jersey is a better situation for the team for the season, it will be far more visible, plus Ewan has many more years ahead of him to win it.

Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis are similar in that it will take something pretty extraordinary for either of them to win it, but they are both clearly in great form given their 1-2 in the TT this week. They are both now riding for BMC of course, but neither of them are what you would consider a sprinter so they will have to go from a long way out in order to secure the win. I can't see it myself, but Dennis is capable of a podium if it's a reduced group that comes to the finish (as I think it will be again).

Avanti and Drapac are sure to try to mix it up again with continuos, aggressive attacking, but if it does come down to a sprint finish from an elite group, Avanit's Neil Van Der Ploeg could spring a surprise . He took a fine 3rd place last year, although that was from that reduced group that got away with just over 4 laps to go. Whether he can go with the break again this year we'll have to wait and see.

Simon Clarke begins his career away from OGE and he will have a tough challenge here being the sole Cannondale rider taking on his old team-mates. Adam Hansen is also on his own, but isn't fully tuned up yet. Nathan Haas also could spring a surprise in his first ride for his new team Dimension Data, he can climb, he can attack, he can sprint, but will he be good enough to beat Gerrans or Ewan if it comes to it? I am not so sure. Luke Durbridge, Cam Meyer, Mitchell Docker and Jay McCarthy could also be involved at the finish, but I think this is possibly Gerrans for the taking, if he is indeed in as good condition as he claims to be.

A small bet for an interest, I'm more interested though in seeing the form and condition of some of these guys ahead of the TDU, a full preview of which will be online later in the week. It's been a long off-season and I can't wait for it to start. After a number of problems over the winter (mainly a hack of the site by Japanese scumbags), I'm back up and running and really looking forward to the season. As well as the TDU I'll be doing a preview of the Tour de San Luis, a race I think could well be better than the TDU this year (if only we could see more of the action...)

Recommendations:

2pts win on Simon Gerrans at 5/2 with Paddy Power.