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Published on Friday, 26 July 2013 22:00

Clasica San Sebastian Betting Preview

The San Sebastian Classic takes place this Saturday, less than one week after the Tour de France finished on the Champs Elysees.. A number of riders will be looking to take their Tour form to Spain, while also the riders who missed out on the Tour will be looking to make a point.

A star-studded line-up takes to the line on Saturday with a large number of the finishers of the Tour de France looking to take their form and legs to the lumpy San Sebastian course. Movistar have Valverde, Amador, Rojas; Orica Greenedge bring Albasini, Clarke, Impey and Gerrans; Belking bring Mollema, Ten Dam, Garate, Gesink and Slagter; Garmin have Hesjedal, Millar and Talansky. Then you have some riders who missed out on the Tour like Samu Sanchez and Greg Van Avermaet who will be looking to exploit any tiredness in the Tour finishers!

The race is suited to a strong punchy kind of rider who can stay with the best of the climbers over the lumpy course, as a look at the winners for the last 5 years alone shows:

2012 Luis León Sánchez (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2010 Luis León Sánchez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
2009 Carlos Barredo (Spa) Quick Step
2008 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne

Luis Leon doesn't line up this year, he's gone to the Tour of Poland instead, but former winners Gilbert and Valverde do and are amongst the favourites - in fact Valverde is the new 4/1 favourite seeing as it looks like Joaquin Rodriguez is out - when I started writing this column Thursday night he was co 7/2 favourite with Valverde. Gerrans is now next in the betting at 8/1 after being 18/1 on Thursday, Gilbert is next in the betting at 10/1. 

The Course

The parcours is long and tough, though with a beautiful backdrop for the most part. The race covers a distance of 234 km (145.4 mi), and is punctuated by a number of punchy climbs as the race winds its way along the coast

Two of those climbs, the Alto de Jaizkibel and the Alto de Arkale (which both have to be taken twice) lie in the second part of the race and are often decisive in deciding the outcome of the race.

The breakdown of the key climbs of the race are :
Alto de Orio (3rd category) - at km 19 (11.8 mi)
Alto de Garate (2nd category) - at km 29,4 (18.27 mi)
Alto de Jaizkibel (1st category) - at km 156,2 and km 196,2 (97.06 mi and 121.9 mi)
Alto de Arkale (2nd category) - at km 179 and km 219 (111.2 mi and 136.08 mi)

The final climb up the Arkale is mostly the final selector, not just for on the way up but also the descent can see breaks going, like last year when LL Sanchez seized on a moments hesitation in the group of favourites to get away and hold off the chasers by 13". Second last year was Simon Gerrans, winning the group sprint from Gianni Meersman with Mollema in 5th and Rodriguez in 8th place. 

The fancied riders

Valverde to me is a weak favorite - his moral must be pretty low after what happened in the Tour and although he worked hard and clawed his way back in to the top 10, there was nothing spectacular about his riding to suggest he can ride away from this field. And if it comes down to a sprint, there are a few who are better than him at that. Van Avermaet is an interesting runner, hot on the back of two stage wins and the overall in the Tour de Wallonie this week and he is available to back around 18/1. 

Being in he Basque Country of course means that Euskaltel will be looking to impress on 'home' territory and have brought a strong team with Nieve, Izagirre, Verdugo and Astarloza. Sanchez would have been an interesting runner with him sidestepping the Tour to prepare for the Vuelta - but it looks like he is a non-runner also. Nieve isn't powerful enough to stay away from this quality field, especially with a 10km run in to the line, so I'm not interested in him despite him going well in the Tour. 

Gilbert is also a poor candidate, did nothing in the Tour to tell me he is going to finally win his first race of the year, so at 12/1 or so, I am not interested.

One strong candidate though for me is Simon Gerrans - had a good Tour, winning a stage and wearing yellow, but it looks like Orica took their foot off the gas towards the end of the Tour as they disappeared from the action a little. Maybe they had this and future races in mind and were pretty pleased with the Tour and how it went in the first week for them. He should be able to stay with the out-and-out climbers over the climbs and he would be a strong favourite to win the sprint from a reduced bunch like last year. I did manage to get matched at 12.5 on Betfair tonight and I think that is a good price - back him each way though in case there are one or two slip the net like in previous years.

5/4 is a bit tight on Betfair to place but the best price with a bookie offering 1/4 the odds on the first 3 is 13/2 with Bet365. It's a pretty poor showing from the other bookies, with Paddy Power only offering 1/3 the odds for the first two - first two? There are nearly 200 in the race - come on Paddy, do you hear me?!

Others to consider

Chavanel will like a rolling course like this and will be looking to get in to breaks during the day, but I'm not backing him tomorrow. Richie Porte will be interesting to watch to see how he performs now he isn't on babysitting duties for Froome. He will like these punchy hills and could well make a blast for glory on the final climb and try to solo to victory - one to maybe have a little of at 40/1 with Bet365. Van Avermaet interests me too - two stage wins and the overall at the Tour de Wallonie this week means he clearly is a rider in form. He has course form too having finished 3rd in 2011. With PhilGil not exactly in great form it may be that GVA might get his chance tomorrow to go for it. Kreuziger was 2nd in 2009 but he seemed to finish the Tour a very tired man after pushing Contador over most of the Alps so I am avoiding him too. Kolobnev has come 2nd in this race in 2008 and won a stage in the Tour de Wallonie this week, maybe another outsider who is as big as 28/1. Kwiatkowski could also have a chance in a final sprint based on his strong showing in the Tour, just depends on how tired his young legs are after a hard three weeks. 

So it should be a fascinating race, especially the last hour or two - just remember it starts at 10.10am so get your bets on early if you are backing someone! The official start list is here.

Me, I am backing Gerrans e/w at 12/1, Van Avermaet at 18/1 with William Hill and Richie Porte at 40/1. I am off racing in the morning too, so updates will be limited! I should be home in time to watch it on Eurosport in the afternoon though.