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Published on Friday, 02 August 2019 16:01

Clasica San Sebastian

San Sebastian, Spain

Sat Aug 4th, 231kms

The Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa, or Clasica Cycliste San Sebastian as it's known to us non-Basques, takes place this Saturday in its traditional slot one week after the Tour de France climax. 

I wasn't going to do a preview for this, as I was pretty tired after two months of working on the Tour, but his race has been good to me in recent years, so I said I'd have a quick look at it.. And you guys know by now how I like to waffle on, so here we are a few thousand words later!

We had Bauke Mollema e/w at 14s last year, 1st and 3rd in 2017 (8/1 and 16/1) and 40/1 winner Bauke Mollema the year before. It could have been even better still, as three years ago my 33/1 man Greg Van Avermaet was riding away from the pack on the final climb, only to be knocked over by a motorbike!

This race has played out in a similar fashion in recent years, in that if you were not in the first 10 as they hit the last 500m of the final climb, then you had no chance.. The descent back to town is very fast, and not too long, so a break with only 15-20" can hang on. Last year it was Julian Alaphilippe who got away, chased by Bauke Mollema and they came home alone to fight out the sprint, if you could call a sprint between Alap and Mollema a fight.. 

In 2017 it was Mikel Landa who blew the race apart, only Tony Gallopin could stay with him, but behind Bauke Mollema again clawed his way back up to them as they just crested the climb. And in 2016 Bauke Mollema got away solo over the top and held the gap to the finish, with the two chasers squabbling as to who would chase, Valverde of course being one of them.

It's the 38th running of the race, so not exactly the oldest classic in the world, but has built a reputation as a tough and challenging race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs coming out of the Tour with good legs, taking on guys who missed the Tour and prepared for this specifically. There haven't been many wins recently though from riders who have not ridden the Tour, it looks like the week's recovery after three hard weeks' racing is the perfect prep for this sort of race.

It's 4kms shorter than last year's race at 227.4kms, and the route has changed just a little bit from last year. They are keeping the climb of Murgil Bidea in the finale, and it's likely once again to be the race decider. Previous winners Kwiatkowski and Luis Leon Sanchez don't make the starting lineup this year, but Julian Alaphilippe, Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Alejandro Valverde and Tony Gallopin take to the start line. 

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year the ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is even further out than last year, it's now some 94kms from the finish, last year it was 54kms from the finish.

One big problem for those trying to attack on the final climb is the number of spectators on the road - they narrow the road so much it's almost impossible to actually race up it, it's just single file behind the guy at the front. So all you can hope for is that you are part of that front group that gets round that final left hand bend (above) and over the top together, or that you are solo clear of them. Above you can see Mollema just about to catch Wellens and Landa, with Dumoulin and Kwiato just behind them.

As Alaphilippe and Mollema showed last year and Mollema showed two years ago, it is possible to hold off a chasing pack on the descent, most guys will be going as fast as they possibly can and the gaps generally hold as they are doing similar speeds and they are all pretty tired. In fact, it's often an advantage to the lone attacker in a situation like this as the chasers don't want to commit too much and drag a rival to the line, only to be beaten by him, like Gallopin and Kwiat last year. 

The Route

It's a similar sort of route to previous years, after starting in Donostia (the Basque name for San Sebastian), they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they hit the first climb, the small Cat 3 Meaga after just 24kms this year (was after 37kms last year) and the first real test, the Cat 2 Alto de Iturburu after 57kms(right).

With 94kms to go they hit the Cat 1 Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.4%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 1 Erlaitz that comes just 23kms later. This is averages 6% for 8.1kms, but hits some really steep parts around 9-11%. 

Last year they did the Jaizkibel twice, this year they head to San Sebastian and pass through the finish line with 50kms to go. Less than 10kms later they are on to the Mendizorrotz, a new climb that is just 4kms long but averages 7.5%, and hits 11% for the last few hundred metres. There' around 25kms to the final climb of the day, the Murgil Tontorra, which peaks out with just 9kms left to race.  

The Murgil Tontorra is a hard climb of 1900m at 10.8%, with parts hitting 22% and the last 600m averaging 12.5%, hard enough to blow the race to pieces. It's where the race-deciding moves will come. 

They then plunge down the descent towards the finish, a really fast and furious descent, a descent that if you can get a small gap on you can hold off the chasers all the way to the finish in San Sebastian. The last 4kms are flat though, so if a small group does come off the climb together, it will probably end in a very small bunch sprint, or even just a few guys. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think there are different groups you can split the contenders in to for this race. First of all, guys coming off the Tour have a great record here, no winner in the last 12 years has not ridden the Tour. Then you have the guys who didn't do the Tour, but are coming here fresh and trained for this. And then you need to consider experience in this race - experience here seems to count for a lot. 

Bauke Mollema has been on the podium in 3 of the last 4 editions, Valverde was on the podium on 4 of the last 5 (but was injured last year), Tony Gallopin 3 of the last 5 years. Lots of other guys go well after coming close in previous years - vven Adam Yates, who had only ridden it once previously had done brilliantly when he did ride it, that is, up until he crashed on the descent to the finish while with the leading riders. 

The race revolves around Julian Alaphilippe though, and it's a case of whether he comes out of the Tour on a downer and just isn't physically or mentally prepared to win this, or whether he comes out on a high and has had a week to recover from his final week hammering and is desperate to bounce back and win again. 

Bauke Mollema may have a brilliant record here, but he really struggled in this year’s Tour and looked very labored at times. I think I am going to not bet on him for the first time in about 3 years as a result.

Alejandro Valverde is also very short in the betting for a man who has not really been racking up the wins, like the Valverde we have become accustomed to.. But there was a stealthy 9th place overall in the Tour, and an equally stealthy ‘best of the rest’ 2nd in the final Tour stage to Val Thorens behind Nibali, he was practically ignored in the Bernal/Nibali love-fest. He rode past Landa that day like he was a rival on another team, there was little cohesion and team-work in that final stage from Movistar. Underestimate him at your peril here - maybe all that weight-reduction before the Tour made him a little over-prepared or something going in to it, he seemed to only get going right at the end of it.. 

He has won this race twice, in 2014 solo ahead of Mollema, again, and in 2008 from a reduced sprint of a right motly crew (Rebellin, Kolobnev, Menchov). It’s hard to see him escaping away from these guys these days and it could well be that he just hopes he comes to the line with a bunch of climbers and none that could be faster than him in the sprint if it’s a small group. Mikel Landa is also on the team and he has a mixed record here, finishing 5th in 2017 and 6th in 2013, but the other 6 times he has entered he hasn’t featured at all. His attack at the finish of stage 20 in the Tour was laughable, I have no idea what the point of that attack was, 1400m from the finish.. but he couldn’t even finish it off, Valverde passed him. I am not sure he has the skills to win this either.

Ineos come here with an interesting team, Tour winner Egan Bernal is also very short in the betting, you can understand why the bookies fear him, he could smash it up the final climb and leave them all behind like he did on the Col de L’Iseran and Galibier. Plus, there's probably going to be lots of punters backing him, so they are deliberately keeping him short. But this is a very different climb, and a very different kind of race. Plus, what sort of condition is he in after a week of celebrating winning the Tour de France at just 22 years of age? Not for me either at 18/1.

But they also have their two young guns Eddie Dunbar and Ivan Sosa in the lineup beside old hands like Jonathan Castroviejo, Woet Poels, Kenny Elissonde and David de la Cruz, quite the squad. We may even see them fire some of them off on the Mendizorrotz with 38kms to go to see whether they can get away, maybe some of the favourites will look at each other and wait for someone else to chase and they might get away in a small group. 

Mitchelton-Scott have a powerful squad here too, led by the Yates brothers, but going on their Tour performances, then you'd have to side with Simon, and not previous winner Adam. 7th two years ago, he was in great form in the Tour and could possibly even have won that ill-fated stage to Tignes, had it not been stopped. As long as he's in the right place hitting that last kilometre of the climb he has a big chance. 

Tony Gallopin has gone well here too in the past, but he didn't look in good enough form for me in the Tour to justify backing him at just 16/1. Greg Van Avermaet likewise at 25/1, he was on the fringes too often in the Tour, just not good enough. Dan Martin was terrible in the Tour, it might be that his teammate Tadej Pogacar might actually go better, but the lack of experience here puts me off him. 

Tiesj Benoot is one who could go well on this final climb, or maybe even attack from afar, he will have supporters at 66/1 for sure, but it might be a big ask to beat the likes of Alaphilippe. Valentin Madous could go well at 40/1, but he didn't do the Tour, that counts against him. Rudy Molard did the Tour, but he was basically anonymous while working for Pinot. He could well take a flyer off the front on the final climb though as he is the team leader here and they are all going to be working to set him up. 

Patrick Konrad will be doing his utmost to hang in there though too, if he can get to the finish with a small group he would win the sprint. He finished 7th in Fleche-Wallone though, so showed he can handle short, sharp climbs like this, and he did do the Tour so has that going for him too. At 150/1 he's worth a small interest, hopefully he will hang in there.. Michael Woods can probably go well on the climb, but I can't see him winning from a reduced sprint - but he could well go close to taking a podium spot at a big-looking 28/1. 

So.. Alaphilippe or not... it's very hard to resist against him, I think he might well put all of last week behind him, hide away for 180kms and be in the right place at the right time hitting that final climb. But 3/1 is awfully short, even for a saver. Alejandro Valverde is the kind of guy though that you ignore at your peril.. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see him heavily involved in the outcome of this race, and if he can get in a small group of climbers over the top of the Tontorra, then he could well win this race. I'm having a small interest in a few at big prices too for fun. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 4/1 with Betway

0.25pts e/w on Patrick Konrad at 150/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Rudy Molard at 200/1 with Bet365

0.4pts e/w on Michael Woods at 28/1 with Bet365

Matchbets:

Anthony Roux to beat Julien Simon and Simon Yates to beat Egan Bernal - 2pts at 11/8 with 365

Van Avermaet to beat Gallopin - 3pts at 4/6

Simon Clarke to beat Omar Fraile - 2pts at 6/5 (not sure Fraile will finish... )

Molard to beat Skujins and Pogacar to beat Sosa - 2pts at 11/10